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The Ukraine War thread

McTallshort said:
Who flew the drones into the Kremlin the other week and the apartment building today I have no idea and neither does anyone else.
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Well, it's either got to be Ukraine, Russia itself to create a distraction, a third party within Russia supported indirectly by NATO. Even NATO being involved is highly unlikely.
 
Bada-Bing! said:
Well, it's either got to be Ukraine, Russia itself to create a distraction, a third party within Russia supported indirectly by NATO. Even NATO being involved is highly unlikely.
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Or an ultra nationalist faction within Russia who are pushing for an escalation in the war and possibly conflict with the West. No one knows yet
 
McTallshort said:
Or an ultra nationalist faction within Russia who are pushing for an escalation in the war and possibly conflict with the West. No one knows yet
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Yeh but there are few suspects of 3. Its likelihood and chances of who it is. And why would it be an ultra nationalist group within Russia when Putin's regime is Ultra nationalist?
 
Bada-Bing! said:
Yeh but there are few suspects of 3. Its likelihood and chances of who it is. And why would it be an ultra nationalist group within Russia when Putin's regime is Ultra nationalist?
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That's a bit simplistic to call Putin's regime ultra nationlist. The key to Putin's power is that the Russian people see him as a strong capable leader, who let's them take holidays in Europe and they don't need to worry about security. Even with this invasion the Kremlin has been at pains to make the appearance of life for ordinary Russians to be business as usual. This is particularly true of the middle classes in St Petersburg and Moscow. His grip on power isn't the same as Stalin's was. The opinion of the Russian people do have a bearing on this. Much of the resources and funding that could have been spent on the war with Ukraine have gone on things like keeping the Russian air industry going so Russians can still fly to Cyprus on holiday or Switzerland for medical treatment, life for the elites and middle classes haven't really changed despite massive casualties and crippling sanctions. Now this has enraged certain nationalist elements in and around the government.

People like this chap
en.m.wikipedia.org

Denis Pushilin - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

They believe that Russia should stop messing about and unleash everything on Ukraine and the west. Now they won't criticise Putin directly (although Pziogen did) but they feel that the corrupt elites of Russia are hiding from this war and are living their comfy lives while other Russians are dying fighting demonic, gay, Jewish Nazis.

These people want to "wake up Russians" and fully mobilize. Something Putin's regime absolutely doesn't want to happen.
 
McTallshort said:
That's a bit simplistic to call Putin's regime ultra nationlist. The key to Putin's power is that the Russian people see him as a strong capable leader, who let's them take holidays in Europe and they don't need to worry about security. Even with this invasion the Kremlin has been at pains to make the appearance of life for ordinary Russians to be business as usual. This is particularly true of the middle classes in St Petersburg and Moscow. His grip on power isn't the same as Stalin's was. The opinion of the Russian people do have a bearing on this. Much of the resources and funding that could have been spent on the war with Ukraine have gone on things like keeping the Russian air industry going so Russians can still fly to Cyprus on holiday or Switzerland for medical treatment, life for the elites and middle classes haven't really changed despite massive casualties and crippling sanctions. Now this has enraged certain nationalist elements in and around the government.

People like this chap
en.m.wikipedia.org

Denis Pushilin - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

They believe that Russia should stop messing about and unleash everything on Ukraine and the west. Now they won't criticise Putin directly (although Pziogen did) but they feel that the corrupt elites of Russia are hiding from this war and are living their comfy lives while other Russians are dying fighting demonic, gay, Jewish Nazis.

These people want to "wake up Russians" and fully mobilize. Something Putin's regime absolutely doesn't want to happen.
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Yes, but I still don't think they are a likely suspect given the size and range of these drones used in the most recent attack.

I also think Putin's regime is as nationalistic as you can get and why he's been listening to the hardcore element within his inner circle and why he chose to invade Ukraine. For a third group of even more hardcore ultra nationalists to be involved would then suggest part of Putin's security forces are implicit in this attack.
 
Of course, there's also the internal politics of who's jockying for power - now and in Post-Putin Russia; it might even be Wagner behind it, to encourage more spending in Ukraine (so more ammunition etc for themselves)
 
Bada-Bing! said:
Yes, but I still don't think they are a likely suspect given the size and range of these drones used in the most recent attack.

I also think Putin's regime is as nationalistic as you can get and why he's been listening to the hardcore element within his inner circle and why he chose to invade Ukraine. For a third group of even more hardcore ultra nationalists to be involved would then suggest part of Putin's security forces are implicit in this attack.
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Or a faction of the security forces. You have to stop thinking of Russia, it's intelligence services and it's military as one whole harmonious entity all pushing for a greater good and more a collection of warlords and power players all trying to get what they can. This is how Putin runs his country.
 
It can be a "false flag" to justify a new wave of mobilization. They already did a couple of steps so that people could receive mobilization call-ups via internet and wouldn't have any chance to avoid it now etc
 
McTallshort said:
Or a faction of the security forces. You have to stop thinking of Russia, it's intelligence services and it's military as one whole harmonious entity all pushing for a greater good and more a collection of warlords and power players all trying to get what they can. This is how Putin runs his country.
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I know; there are disparate parts of Putin's regime. I think of Putin like a mob boss, who still has to keep the hardcore elements happy to support his regime. He'll have buffers and layers between him and the security forces, army etc. He'll know if another group within his country did this and for that they would need support and resources to undertake such a mission and his tacit agreement. Doesn't mean he directly ordered it but he creates that culture to let it happen - just like Salisbury, MH17.
 
Bada-Bing! said:
I know; there are disparate parts of Putin's regime. I think of Putin like a mob boss, who still has to keep the hardcore elements happy to support his regime. He'll have buffers and layers between him and the security forces, army etc. He'll know if another group within his country did this and for that they would need support and resources to undertake such a mission and his tacit agreement. Doesn't mean he directly ordered it but he creates that culture to let it happen - just like Salisbury, MH17.
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An interesting take
 
I cannot verify this, and the source (assuming their self-description is accurate) could possibly be said to be a tad biased:
 
Looks like Ukraine is making some ground either side of the Mokri Yaly River around Velyka Novosilka.

Doesn't look like it's the main thrust, and no idea yet on how many Ukrainians there, but it sounds like one of the areas Russia had been pulling troops from, to throw into Bakhmut as Wagner extricated themselves from there - so an opportunistic foray or a diversion seems the most likely (to me) at this stage.
 
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McTallshort said:
Proper panic in the Russians now. Makes you wonder what else they will do.
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Most likely story seems to be that the Russians f***ed up.
Looks like they wanted to to blow the road, and enough damage to the dam to make the Ukrainians retreat from a couple of islands close to it. Some minor damage they could blame on previous damage and high rainfall etc.

But they laid way too much charge, a large flash of light and explosion was seen and heard; and they've done way too much damage, flooded out their own troops, and put the water supply to Crimea and a nuclear plant in jeapardy (how much so, the gods only know at this point)
 
Which Tyler said:
Most likely story seems to be that the Russians f***ed up.
Looks like they wanted to to blow the road, and enough damage to the dam to make the Ukrainians retreat from a couple of islands close to it. Some minor damage they could blame on previous damage and high rainfall etc.

But they laid way too much charge, a large flash of light and explosion was seen and heard; and they've done way too much damage, flooded out their own troops, and put the water supply to Crimea and a nuclear plant in jeapardy (how much so, the gods only know at this point)
Click to expand...
You wonder if the Russians feel any shame at all with how blatant their lies are too. Yes blame Ukraine, because obviously what the Ukrainians want to do if create a massive natural obstacle and large swatches of impassable terrain right in front of their own army as they prepare to advance, destroying one of the possible strong crossing points in the process and ensuring that any successful attack will just capture ruins. Nobody except the most deluded morons believes their crap and yet they still tell it.
 

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