I've not heard any reputable source say its different to double.
Guardians 3 (which was last hit which was the last film they released before The Marvels)
I think people have been talking to superhero fatigue for since before Iron Man came out (articles were written about The Dark Knight in that regard). But you so look at the figures and they're still making solid money. Maybe they aren't part of the cultural zeitgeist like they once were but they're still plodding a long being a pretty sure bet.
(Indiana Jones was Paramount not Disney BTW )
Lucasfilm was bought by Disney which owns Star Wars, Indiana Jones and Willow - which disney made a sequel of which flopped so hard, they pulled it off Disney+ quickly.
As for the figures, it's pretty standard that they have to pay off interest on loans, marketing costs, actors contracts with added bonuses etc. I remember reading Robert Downey Jr got Disney good on one of the films (avengers I think). The formula for working out costs is usually something like
(Production budget) 200 million + 200 million (marketing)
However, they usually only reveal the production costs. On top of this they have distribution fees too. Each ticket sold usually sees the studio getting about 50-40% of the money and if they hit the certain number of sales, an actors contract might have a bonus fee clause. So if a film that cost 200 million to make was released, you're looking at needing probably 450 just to hit profit.
en.m.wikipedia.org
On the costs:
"As of November 5, 2023, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny has grossed $174.5 million in the United States and Canada, and $209.5 million in other territories, for a worldwide total of $384 million. With an estimated production budget of $294.7 million, not including marketing costs, it is the most expensive film in the Indiana Jones franchise, as well as one of the most expensive films ever made. Due to its expensive production cost and marketing budget, the film was deemed a box-office bomb. Collider estimated the film would need to make around $600 million to break-even, and $800 million to be considered a success. In August 2023"