The Reds will be happy to have the likes of Robinson, Ioane, and Anthony Faingaa back for the match, though James Slipper is a big loss.
Blues :1. Charlie Faumuina 2. Keven Mealamu (c) 3. John Afoa 4. Chris Lowrey 5. Ali Williams 6. Jerome Kaino 7. Luke Braid 8. Peter Saili 9. Alby Mathewson 10. Stephen Brett 11. Lachie Munro/Rene Ranger 12. Luke McAlister 13. Benson Stanley 14. Joe Rokocoko 15. Jared Payne
Replacements : 16 Tom McCartney 17 Tevita Mailau 18 James King/Mat Luamanu 19 Daniel Braid 20 Chris Smylie 21 Lachie Munro/Rene Ranger 22 Winston Stanley/Sherwin Stowers
Boric is a huge loss for the Blues. Not only is he, along with Ali Williams, one of the Blues main jumpers, but he is also responsible for calling the lineouts. Due to all the injuries the Blues have had with their locks they have been forced to pick Chris Lowrey (usually a loose-forward) in the 4 jersey. James King (who was brought into the squad to cover for all the lock injuries) is himself injured, and has been bracketed on the bench with Mat Luamanu (another loose-forward). The Blues better hope Ali Williams doesn't get injured, otherwise they may end the match without a lock on the field!
Lachie Munro and Rene Ranger have been bracketed on left wing, though both are carrying injuries. The decision as to who will start may depend on who has recovered from their injury best. Ranger certainly would add a lot to the Blues attack, and is also a better defensive player than Munro. Munro does provide accurate goal-kicking, and McAlister has played better in recent weeks without the responsibility of kicking goals. I'd definately pick Ranger, but they my prefer to have their best goal-kicker on the field for what could be a close match.
Without James Slipper I feel the Blues should have a big edge in the front-row. Ben Daley has impressed me immensely with his work-rate around the park this year, but there are still question marks over his scrummaging. Faumuina has been great for the Blues since he came back from injury, with powerful running close to the ruck adding a lot to the Blues attack. The Reds have an edge in the locks. Ali Williams has really impressed over the latter half of the season, but Chris Lowrey isn't a real lock, and I feel the Blues may struggle in the lineout (as they have whenever Boric has been out). The Reds combo of Horwill and Simmons has been consistent all year; I'd expect to see Simmons joining Horwill in the Wallabies RWC squad.
I give the Blues a slight edge in the loose-forward battle. Kaino v Higginbotham is an interesting matchup, as they have contrasting styles. Higginbotham will cause the Blues some issues with his running game, but I haven't been impressed with his work in the tight in recent weeks, and he struggled to contain Fritz Lee on defense in his last game. I expect Peter Saili and Mathewson to have a couple of runs down the blindside to test his defense. Luke Braid v Robinson at 7 will be a great matchup; Robinson was in great form before injury, while Luke Braid has been phenomenal over the last few weeks. Robinson has an slight edge at the breakdown, but Braid certainly adds a lot more with the ball in hand.
Where the Reds have a huge advantage is clearly in the halves; if the Blues are to win they really need to shut down Genia and Cooper. Mathewson had a strong game last week, but Brett still remains his inconsistent self. I'd imagine the Reds will spend a lot of time attacking down Brett's channel, as the Waratahs did last week, with only some great covering by Luke Braid preventing 3-4 clean linebreaks. Cooper is just as bad defensively as Brett, but he will be hidden at fullback with Jono Lance defending in the line. I have no idea about the quality of Lance's defense, but I'd imagine he will be tested by the likes of Stephen Brett. Both midfields are very solid defensively; I don't think either team has much of an advantage here.
Digby Ioane is going to a key for the Reds out wide, as he was outstanding the last times the teams met. Rokocoko has been solid most of the season; if he can manage to contain Ioane his job will be done. The matchup on the other wing will be interesting; if the Blues pick Ranger I think he will cause Davies all sorts of trouble with his power, while if the pick Munro I'd say the Davies would have a big edge due to his pace. McAlister has played some of his best rugby of the season in recent weeks at fullback (despite wearing 12 on his back). He adds a bit of creativity from the back that the Blues lost when Toeava was injured, though I suspect that Quade Cooper will certainly test his (somewhat dubious) positioning with a number of tactical kicks throughout the match.
I'm expecting it will be a close match that could go either way. I'm picking the Reds to take it by 5, due mainly to their huge advantage in the halves.