Super 15: THE GRAND FINAL! Reds v. Crusaders @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane (09-07-2011)

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane (09-07-2011, 10:40 GMT)

This is what the 2 will be playing for!

The Reds and the Crusaders have already played each other once this year at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane and that match was won 17-16 by the Reds.

When the Reds beat the Crusaders in their last clash it was a close shave as the Reds were awarded a late penalty which Cooper kicked.

The Reds have won the last two matches against the Crusaders and both of those matches have been in Brisbane where the Reds have home advantage. Last year's 41-20 Reds victory over the Crusaders ended a 10 match losing streak for the Reds against the Crusaders.

The Reds lost every match they played against the Crusaders between 2000 and 2009. Admittedly during that period the Reds were not as good as they are now under coach Ewen McKenzie.

McKenzie will be hoping that it will be a case of third time lucky against the Crusaders this weekend as he coached the Waratahs to finals in 2005 and 2008 and both were against the Crusaders. On both occasions the Crusaders had home advantage and they won both.

This week the Reds have home advantage and the stadium is sold out so support for the Reds will be fierce in the stands. If everyone turns up a new Super Rugby attendance record will be set in Australia and tickets sold out in 45 minutes.

Last week against the Blues the Reds were a lot better than most fans expected. Quade Cooper on attack was outstanding but the match also exposed one of his weaknesses as his kicks from the right had side of the field fade across the posts.

Dan Carter doesn't have a weak spot when it comes to kicking for posts and it has also been in the news this week that Dan Carter has been practicing his drop goals.

Both teams have named unchanged selections for this week but there is some doubt over Andy Ellis who went off early against the Stormers. Chris Jack and Luke Romano have been bracketed due to Romano's chickenpox.

There has been much talk of the Crusaders travel but what has been talked about a lot less is that the Reds had a bye two weekends ago while the Crusaders have not had a weekend off for a month.

With all of the travel and the lack of rest the Crusaders will have to suffer from fatigue at some point and it is most likely to come in the final quarter.

While SANZAR does not worry too much about neutral referees the fans certainly do. Bryce Lawrence didn't have his best game when he was in charge of the Crusaders vs Sharks play off (remember the dangerous play scrum call ?) but he was heavily criticised after that match and he will be so mindful of every call he makes in favour of the Crusaders in this match that it may turn out that he slightly favours the Reds.

The Reds have played the Crusaders 10 times in Brisbane and won just four times. On average they score 27 points and the Crusaders score 24 points on average. Their average score away from Brisbane is 24-30 to the Crusaders which shows how much the Reds enjoy playing in Brisbane.


Match Officials:
Referee: Bryce Lawrence (

)
Assistant referees: Stuart Dickinson (

), Vinny Munro (

)
Television match official: George Ayoub (

)

Last 17 results
29 May 2011 Reds v Crusaders 17-16 Brisbane
19 Feb 2010 Reds v Crusaders 41-20 Brisbane
08 May 2009 Reds v Crusaders 12-32 Christchurch
10 May 2008 Reds v Crusaders 21-27 Brisbane
10 Feb 2007 Reds v Crusaders 22-33 Christchurch
18 Feb 2006 Reds v Crusaders 21-47 Brisbane
12 Mar 2005 Reds v Crusaders 24-59 Nelson
06 Mar 2004 Reds v Crusaders 17-20 Brisbane
01 Mar 2003 Reds v Crusaders 6-34 Christchurch
17 Mar 2002 Reds v Crusaders 27-34 Brisbane
23 Mar 2001 Reds v Crusaders 26-32 Christchurch
18 Mar 2000 Reds v Crusaders 19-27 Brisbane
22 May 1999 Semi Reds v Crusaders 22-28 Brisbane
27 Mar 1999 Reds v Crusaders 36-23 Christchurch
14 Mar 1998 Reds v Crusaders 35-9 Brisbane
17 May 1997 Reds v Crusaders 3-48 Christchurch
17 Mar 1996 Reds v Crusaders 52-16 Brisbane


Reds overall record against the Crusaders
Played 17, Wins 5 , Losses 12 , Draws 0

Overall Average scores
Reds 24 Crusaders 30

Reds overall record against the Crusaders in Brisbane
Played 10, Wins 4 , Losses 6, Draws 0

Average Scores in Brisbane
Reds 27 Crusaders 24

Teams:

Reds :1. Ben Daley , 2. Saia Faingaa , 3. Greg Holmes , 4. Rob Simmons , 5. James Horwill (c) , 6. Scott Higginbotham , 7. Beau Robinson , 8. Radike Samo , 9. Will Genia (vc) , 10. Quade Cooper , 11. Digby Ioane , 12. Ben Tapuai , 13. Anthony Faingaa , 14. Rod Davies , 15. Jono Lance

Replacements : 16. James Hanson , 17. Guy Shepherdson , 18. Adam Wallace-Harrison , 19. Jake Schatz , 20. Liam Gill , 21. Ian Prior , 22. Will Chambers

Crusaders: 1. Wyatt Crockett , 2. Corey Flynn , 3. Owen Franks , 4. Brad Thorn , 5. Sam Whitelock , 6. George Whitelock , 7. Richie McCaw (c) , 8. Kieran Read , 9. Andy Ellis/Kahn Fotuali'i , 10. Dan Carter , 11. Zac Guildford , 12. Sonny Bill Williams , 13. Robbie Fruean , 14. Sean Maitland , 15. Tom Marshall

Relacements : 16. Quentin MacDonald , 17. Ben Franks , 18. Luke Romano/Chris Jack , 19. Matt Todd , 20. Kahn Fotuali'i/Willi Heinz , 21. Matt Berquist , 22. Ryan Crotty

source: superxv.com

<a href="http://winbetting.at/therugbyforum?CTY=1&amp;CID=15908"><img src="http://b1.perfb.com/b1.php?ID=15908&amp;PURL=winbetting.at/therugbyforum" border="0" /></a>

*Vbookie odds supplied by BWIN*

 

[Amobokoboko]

I already posted my prediction in the prediction topic, I see the Crusaders win it.

 

[big ginger 8]

Heart says Reds

Head says Crusaders.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Reds reds reds reds reds reds reds reds reds reds!

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

I hope the Reds take this. They have really proven they deserve the trophy. They managed to beat the Waratahs, Blues, Crusaders, Bulls and Stormers. The only reason they didn't beat the Sharks is because they didn't play them.

Quade Cooper v. Dan Carter is almost equal, but the difference will be made with the scrum half. Will Genia is the best scrum half in the world by a mile at this stage. His decision-making, together with tough guys like Faingaa and Higginbothom and Ioane combining with Davies on the wings, gives them the edge over the Crusaders.

Only doubt is Bryce Lawrence, who was awful 2 weeks ago in the Crusaders-Sharks match

 

[TrueSlawter]

Just to make sure this is on at 10:40pm right? might be able to watch it downstairs if its on Sky then

As for the winner I'm not sure, tis gonna be close imo.

 

[Feicarsinn]

It's a tough one to call. Reds have home field advantage, while Saders have all the experience in the world. I'm gonna go with the Reds. In Cooper and Genia they have the best half back combination in the world and outside of them are some very dangerous backs. If they can achieve parity up front, they'll win by about 4 points.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Just to make sure this is on at 10:40pm right? might be able to watch it downstairs if its on Sky then

As for the winner I'm not sure, tis gonna be close imo.

Kickoff is 10.40am UK time

 

[madflyhalf]

Heart says Reds

Head says Crusaders.

It's the same for me.

I support Reds, "Red" is my nickname, I live in the "red city" of Italy (Bologna, try to guess why ), so it's almost a matter of legacy!

But I think experience could do the match for Crusaders.
It's like boys against men, helluva boys, but still boys. If you look at the stats, it's all for 'Saders: age, SR experience, SR-Finals experience, international players...
And if Reds can keep 75-80% of these players, they surely will become the "new" Crusaders in a couple of years, but for now I don't think they could win this.

But anyway, I have in my mind 2 scenarios:

- If it will be a close contest, point-to-point match, Crusaders would win because of their experience; this means also that if the match will be this way until 65', there could have a Reds' fallout in the dying stages, widening the final gap.
- But if the Reds will be able to play THEIR RUGBY, made of a good defence and a sparkling and amazing attack, they could bring the game to the following level, hitting the Crusaders early and playing on their 2 weeks travel between ChCh, CT and Brisbane. In this case, the gap could be bigger than we expected!

Prob 1 = 70%
Prob 2 = 30%

I expect a "final-rugby" game, defence will be surely a huge steady point in this match, but I think it will be very exiting as well!


Anyway...


I AM RED

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Just to make sure this is on at 10:40pm right? might be able to watch it downstairs if its on Sky then

As for the winner I'm not sure, tis gonna be close imo.

10:40 in the morning GMT

 

[lynam1104]

Reds!! first game of super rugby I watched properly was Reds V Saders last year been a fan since.

 

[TrueSlawter]

ah mk I misread the date totally xD should be able to catch this before work then well most of it at least (start at 12)

 

[Rhyer]

I think those odds are a bit unfair. Crusaders were beaten last time, it's in Queensland, they have travelled from South Africa and Reds are top of the table while Crusaders are 3rd. They are certainly not favourites. Your odds seem to be very unfair for anyone betting for the Crusaders as there is a huge risk with little pay off.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I think those odds are a bit unfair. Crusaders were beaten last time, it's in Queensland, they have travelled from South Africa and Reds are top of the table while Crusaders are 3rd. They are certainly not favourites. Your odds seem to be very unfair for anyone betting for the Crusaders as there is a huge risk with little pay off.

The odds are taken from a betting site, not calculated by us!
I do agree though, I would've expected the odds to be more even

Sent from my HTC Incredible S using Tapatalk

 

[Darwin]

I think those odds are a bit unfair. Crusaders were beaten last time, it's in Queensland, they have travelled from South Africa and Reds are top of the table while Crusaders are 3rd. They are certainly not favourites. Your odds seem to be very unfair for anyone betting for the Crusaders as there is a huge risk with little pay off.

I actually think the odds a reasonably fair, and the Crusaders deserve to be favourites. For one thing the Crusaders have experience in big matches like this, which the Reds lack. This is something that cannot be underestimated.

You rightly note that the Reds beat the Crusaders last time (in Queensland) but that was a last minute win, and the teams are a bit different this time. The Reds are slightly weaker, while the Crusaders are substantially stronger. Both teams have three changes in their starting lineup from their last match. The Reds are missing their first choice fullback and tight-head prop for this match (Lucas, and Slipper) which are both big losses, while Davies has replaced Morahan on the wing (which may be a slight improvement, though there is not much between the players). The Crusaders have had big upgrades in three positions with top try-scorer Sean Maitland replacing (the grey-haired) Brent Ward on the right wing, Ellis replacing Heinz at halfback, and All Black Sam Whitelock replacing Chris Jack at lock.

The Crusaders should have a huge advantage up front, particularly in the scrums. It is certainly going to be difficult for the Reds to attack from the scrum if it is going rapidly backwards. The lineouts will be interesting; the Reds have had a reasonable lineout most of the year, but struggled a bit against the (under-manned) Blues lineout last week, while the Crusaders lineout was quite effective against the powerful Stormers lineout last week. The Reds are certainly going to have to secure their own lineout ball if they want to be competitive, as otherwise they are not going to have any attacking platforms from set-phase.

The loose-forward battle will be fascinating. George Whitelock has been solid all season at 6, while Higginbotham has been far more dynamic (if lacking Whitelock's reliability). Beau Robinson had a strong game last week after returning from injury, and his work at the breakdown will be key for the Reds. McCaw hasn't really looked himself this season; he's been making his tackles and running well with the ball but he hasn't had the same impact at the breakdown that we traditionally expect from him. He is certainly going to be tested by Robinson (and Gill when he comes on). Read is probably the key member of the Crusaders trio at this stage. He has been phenomenal over the latter half of the season, and he's going to have to have another strong game if the Crusaders are to compete in the loose.

The battle of he halves should be really interesting as well. Ellis has had a strong season, but even then he's not in the same class as Genia. Ellis should be getting far better ball from his forward pack though, which may even up the battle. Cooper has been great all season, and will be the major threat for the Crusaders. It will be interesting to see what Carter does in terms of his tactical kicking this week. Last week against the Stormers all Carter did was kick the ball long straight down the middle of the park; this was very effective against the Stormers as all Jantjes would do in response was put up a mid-field bomb. If Carter kicks straight down the throat of Cooper (who will be stationed at fullback on defence) the Crusaders are going to be in all sorts of trouble. I'd expect Carter will kick a lot more for touch, or either he or Ellis will put up shorter (high) kicks for the likes of Guildford to chase. Carter has had a pretty quiet season by his standards; he hasn't made many mistakes, but he certainly hasn't provided the running threat he can pose. If he does start to run I feel the Crusaders backline will be even more potent, as the Reds will have another player the need to keep an eye on.

The Crusaders certainly have an edge in the mid-field, though both Tapuai and Faingaa are strong defensive players. Fruean had his strongest game in a long time last weekend, so they are going to have to mark him as closely as they will SBW. There are some great match-ups out wide, with Maitland v Ioane on one wing, and Guildford v Davies on the other. Maitland will struggle to contain Ioane (as most players will), but Maitland himself could trouble Ioane with his pace. Davies looked impressive versus the Blues, but I expect the Crusaders may target him this week with a few high balls. The Crusaders are certainly going to have to keep an eye on Davies, as even Guildford won't catch him is he gets into space!

One of the really interesting things in the match will be how the Reds combat the Crusaders off-loading game. The Reds defensive technique is to go low and bring the player to ground so the can pilfer the ball; this tactic is very effective, but it doesn't prevent the Crusaders off-loading the ball in the tackle. I'm expecting the Reds to get quite a few tunrovers at the breakdown (especially in the last 20 mins when Liam Gill comes on), but I feel the continuity provided by the Crusaders off-loading game will cause the Reds a lot of trouble. The Crusaders certainly won't make as many unforced errors as the Blues did last week; therefore I don't think the Reds will get as many attacking opportunities this week, and due the Crusaders forward dominance the Reds won't get as many opportunities from set play. I wouldn't rule out the Reds winning, but overall I'm predicting the Crusaders to take it by 10-15 points.

 

[FlukeArtist]

Reds under McKenzie remind me a lot of the Waratahs under McKenzie.
Good, but not that good.
Face facts here; if the competition wasn't a conference format, and they didn't get to play 3 out of the 4 bottom teams twice, then the table might have looked a bit different.
Whereas, the Crusaders didn't even get to play the Lions or Rebels ONCE

As much I hate to say it, The Crusaders are pure class and have experience across the park.
The are also fuelled by a lot of emotion and desire to win for the people of Christchurch.

The Crusaders will have too much for the Reds on saturday night.
Crusaders by 12 points

 

[Shaggy]

When I watched the Reds V Blues semi-final, I thought the Reds will take out the ***le due to the dominance they showed, however, when I watched the Stormers V Crusaders match, I changed my mind as I was impressed with the dominance that the Crusaders managed to muster in a game away from home.

I think the Crusaders have already proven that they can play a low risk, low error rate game, and achieve dominance in the big matches ... they seem to be able to put the expectation an emotion aside, so i'm expecting that they won't be overawed, and will negate some of the Reds hometown advantage.

I expect that the Crusaders forwards will dominate, and that maybe the Reds backs will be taken out of the equation some what by the lack of quality go forward ball.

... anyway, what I expect and what actually happens could be two different things, and the game could go either way.

... put my last 50 hard earned virtual dollars on the Gypsy Crusaders to win the ***le despite not being able to play on their home ground this season

 

[The_Wol]

I'd expect someone like Saia Faingaa to accidentally flatten Carter off the ball..... Not that I want to see dirty play but I imagine they'll risk it to try and rattle Carter like Hynes did last year.

 

[Sam Owen]

Im going for the Reds but I know the Crusaders will be tough.

 

[T-Rex]

Heart: Reds

Head: Crusaders