Spring Tour: Australia vs Wales - 1st Test (09/06/2012, 10:00 GMT)

[TrueSlawter]

Ah mk thanks, dont have sky here <.< Get to watch the next game though.. Guess its S4C for me then, will have to remind myself at 9 to watch it xD

 

[bushytop]

Been reading green & gold... the aussies don't seem to see anyway the wobblies can win this...

Don't think its that cut and dry but we've definitely got to fancy our chances... just hope Warburton is up to the full 80 minutes, with tips not making the bench.

 

[Wilko's left boot]

Interesting to see Bradley Davies in there. I thought that he was one of the players of the tournament in the 6 nations before the World Cup, but haven't seen a whole lot of him since then.

 

[Draggs]

Interesting to see Bradley Davies in there. I thought that he was one of the players of the tournament in the 6 nations before the World Cup, but haven't seen a whole lot of him since then.

He must have been excellent if he is was one of the best Six Nations players, playing only one match.

 

[Wilko's left boot]

I mean the 2011 six nations... or maybe 2010. Okay, okay, there was A six nations where I thought he was really impressive

 

[Draggs]

Heh, it's cool mate.
Agree, he is a good player when on form. Considering two years back we have off form AWJ, Bradley Davies, awful Charteris, and Deiniol Jones, we are in better shape.

 

[big ginger 8]

Can a vbookie be added for this? I really fancy Wales here.

 

[Draggs]

vBookie Australia v Wales

vBookie added.

EDIT: That didn't work...

 

[Peat]

Cheers dullonien

 

[Darwin]

This is a question that has little to do with this thread, but I'll just ask given that the topic is being brought up. I don't really get this "TH lock" thing. I mean, I get the "good cop/bad cop" in open play, as in Matfield/Botha or Whitelock/Thorn but, IIRC, Thorn scrummages on the left side of the scrum whereas Botha on the right, as does Sharpe usually... so that doesn't really add up in my mind.

A good question. To summarize, the TH lock scrummages on the TH (right) side of the scrum (behind the tighthead prop), and as such usually a better scrummager than the LH lock, as there is more pressure coming on that side. In general the TH lock is often jumps at number 2 in the lineout, as he tends to be bulkier than the LH lock. Not sure what happens in Northern Hemisphere, but in NZ, Australia, and South Africa the TH lock almost always wears the '4' jersey (e.g Bakkies Botha, Eben Etzebeth, Flip van der Merwe, Dan Vickerman, Rob Simmons, Brad Thorn, Anthony Boric), with the LH lock wearing the '5' jersey (Nathan Sharpe, James Horwill, Hugh Pyle, Victor Matfield, Juandre Kruger, Andries Bekker, Sam Whitelock, Brodie Rettalick, Ali Williams). Of course they can change sides depending on who they are paired with: Retallick will be playing on the TH side for the AB's this weekend, and Ali Williams plays on the TH side for the Blues this season after Boric's injury. More info can be found here.

Vuna in for injuried Tomane.

Dunno... few option btw, I prefer Morahan.

A very interesting selection this - like you I personally would have proffered Morahan (or even Shipperly). Vuna is a big powerful player on attack, but despite showing some signs of improvement this season, he is still a big liability on defense in my opinion. I think he is really going to struggle to contain George North!

 

[dullonien]

Bradley Davies was one of the best locks in the NH a couple of years ago, but hasn't lived up to that early promise. He needs to step up to the plate here, especially after his idocicy came close to de-railing Wales' 6 nations before it had a chance to get going against Ireland.

I'm still worried that we're going to miss Ian Evans. He's been great for the Ospreys and Wales this past season. He's a great all-round lock who does a bit of everything, and also has a bit of dog about him. Charteris is a little short on gametime since the WC, but we need him at a similar level to those that he put in at the WC if we want to win the forward battle as is hoped.

 

[Draggs]

If it wasn't for Dan Lydiate, Ian Evans would have been my player of the Six Nations.
That boy has gone above and beyond, a very mature player compared to where he was even a season ago.
I like pairing AWJ and Ian Evans, with Charteris off the bench. My biggest issue with Alun Wyn is his lack of consistency. I think he and many others need some time on the beach this summer.

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

vBookie Wallabies - Wales

I added the vBookie guys!!!

 

[Darwin]

Really not sure which way this match will go. I will probably be cheering for Wales, as I thoroughly enjoyed their play throughout the RWC (and what I saw of them during the 6 nations). I will be happy though as long as we get a more expansive game than we saw versus Scotland

Wales obviously have an edge in the front-row, as Jones and Jenkins are world class players. However I don't think the edge will be as big as some people have suggested: Robinson is a top class loosehead prop, while Kepu and Polota-Nau are generally pretty solid scrummagers too. As a combination they have been very strong at scrum time for the Waratahs this season. I haven't seen much of Owens, but am looking forwards to seeing how he goes. Both teams are missing some key locks, but I think Wales's combination is slightly stronger. I understand Davies hasn't been at his best for a while, but I've got a lot of time for him, while Charteris had a very good RWC. Sharpe is still playing some good rugby, but plays a bit loose for me, and while Simmons is solid, he is not overly spectacular. The worrying aspect for Australia is they have no genuine lock cover on the bench, while Wales can bring on Alun Wyn Jones if required.

I give Wales an edge in the loose-forwards too. Lydiate is the type of reliable, no-nonsense 6 that I really like. I would pick him any day over Higginbotham, who can look great running with the ball out wide, but shirks his responsibilities in the tight in my opinion. I give Pocock the edge over Warburton, but I consider both world class players. It is an interesting battle at 8 - if Palu was at the peak of his powers I would call it even, but I would take Faletau over him on current form. One ace Australia do have up their sleeve is Hooper on the bench, who could be a massive threat when he comes on with 20-30 mins to go, with the Wallabies using dual openside flankers.

Genia had a poor match against Scotland, but I think he is a better player than Phillips (who again is still a very good player in his own right). Priestland was pretty quiet during the 6 nations if I remember correctly, but I would take him over Barnes (the Wallabies 4th choice 10?) as Barnes has been in pretty poor form. Barnes also has the added responsibility of goal-kicking this match too.

Not quite sure what to make of the midfield battle. McCabe is a rock in defense at 12, so Wales will struggle to get through his channel no matter who they throw at him, and is improving his distribution on attack. I've never been convinced by Horne, but maybe that is because he always seems to be injured. I quite like Williams and Davies individually, but will be interested to see how they go as a combination. Some great matchups out wide: while Cuthbert had a great 6 nations I think Ioane will cause him quite a few problems, while I think North is going to be too much for Vuna on the other wing (though Vuna is pretty handy in attack himself). The fullback matchup is good too - though Ashley-Cooper has had a quiet season he has a lot of class, while Halfpenny has really impressed me since his permanent move to fullback for Wales (I assume he will be taking the kicks at goal too?).

After writing all that I'm starting to think Wales will win this match, despite Australia's home advantage (I am also glad the AB's aren't playing Wales in a 3 match series, as I think we would struggle to win all three matches against this Welsh side!). I'm picking Wales by 5-10, but it could really go either way in my opinion.

 

[bushytop]

(I am also glad the AB's aren't playing Wales in a 3 match series, as I think we would struggle to win all three matches against this Welsh side!)

Honestly, as confident as I feel about wales right now... I still think the AB's currently beyond us (could change if we continue to progress). Right now I think the AB's are on a level above Aid, SA, Wales, Eng, France and Ireland who imo are all fairly even in overall terms.

Am I right in thinking Wales are touring NZ in 2014? If so, and Gatland & Co's development plans go just right... MAYBE we can test you then.

 

[bushytop]

(I am also glad the AB's aren't playing Wales in a 3 match series, as I think we would struggle to win all three matches against this Welsh side!)

Honestly, as confident as I feel about wales right now... I still think the AB's currently beyond us (could change if we continue to progress). Right now I think the AB's are on a level above Aus, SA, Wales, Eng, France and Ireland who imo are all fairly even in overall terms.

Am I right in thinking Wales are touring NZ in 2014? If so, and Gatland & Co's development plans go just right... MAYBE we can test you then.

 

[Darwin]

Honestly, as confident as I feel about wales right now... I still think the AB's currently beyond us (could change if we continue to progress). Right now I think the AB's are on a level above Aid, SA, Wales, Eng, France and Ireland who imo are all fairly even in overall terms.

Am I right in thinking Wales are touring NZ in 2014? If so, and Gatland & Co's development plans go just right... MAYBE we can test you then.

Yeah I still agree that the AB's are the best team in the world, but I think we are a bit vulnerable right at the moment. We have a new coach, and traditionally RWC Champions have struggled the year after winning the World Cup (the 'Rugby World Cup Hangover'....). The AB's are in a bit of a rebuilding phase at the moment, with a number of key departures (Thorn, Kaino), and the coach wanting to introduce new blood to the squad (Retallick, Smith, and Savea are all on debut this weekend), not to mention a few key injuries (Kahui, Jane..). In contrast I think Wales are in a slightly better position - they introduced a whole pile of young players last season, and have arguably improved since the RWC. I would certainly say we would be favorites against Wales, but I wouldn't necessarily rule out Wales causing an upset (I'm not ruling out Ireland causing an upset either!).

 

[bushytop]

Yeah I still agree that the AB's are the best team in the world, but I think we are a bit vulnerable right at the moment. We have a new coach, and traditionally RWC Champions have struggled the year after winning the World Cup (the 'Rugby World Cup Hangover'....). The AB's are in a bit of a rebuilding phase at the moment, with a number of key departures (Thorn, Kaino), and the coach wanting to introduce new blood to the squad (Retallick, Smith, and Savea are all on debut this weekend), not to mention a few key injuries (Kahui, Jane..). In contrast I think Wales are in a slightly better position - they introduced a whole pile of young players last season, and have arguably improved since the RWC. I would certainly say we would be favorites against Wales, but I wouldn't necessarily rule out Wales causing an upset (I'm not ruling out Ireland causing an upset either!).

Same goes for a few teams Eng & SA are probably going through a bigger rebuilds, while Ireland and France probably need just as drastic measures. Aus and Wales introduced their youngsters earlier but are still tweaking.

Also while the AB's aren't used to World champion status, they are used to peaking between RWC's
so you should be alright.

 

[Darwin]

Same goes for a few teams Eng & SA are probably going through a bigger rebuilds, while Ireland and France probably need just as drastic measures. Aus and Wales introduced their youngsters earlier but are still tweaking.

Also while the AB's aren't used to World champion status, they are used to peaking between RWC's
so you should be alright.

Don't get me wrong - I certainly understand that many teams are going through similar (or even more extensive) rebuilding projects, but my point remains the same. The All Blacks are more vulnerable now that they have been in a number of years. Whether other teams are able to exploit this vulnerability is a different question altogether

 

[Larksea]

Aussie back line selection don't look 100% to me, will be interesting to see the straegy on how it comes together. But for now I think the welsh have a shot.