So.....

[Big Ewis]

...anybody REALISTICALLY got anybody besides the mighty All Blacks this time ?
Personally, I don't think they'll sweep the whole thing again (though that would be insane, two clean sweeps in a row ?!!....).
I'd imagine a loss in SA quite possibly, always the big challenge I suppose for them. Perhaps a surprise loss in Australia, but the Ozzies do seem a bit undermanned again...Boks winning IN New Zealand ??...been a while, perhaps this year's the year. Some high scoring, 30-ish each tight tight win ?...

The All Blacks looked vulnerable in parts against France at least during 2 of the 3 tests, but things can be said there. France, in fact, played better than we all think to keep up, and NZ wasn't at full strength...but regardless I do see some vulnerability in them this year.

I think there's a realistic chance for the Boks this year. They seemed rejuvenated and full of power and juice with those backs and powerful upfront in their quadrangular tournament thingy. They looked a lot more "linear" and predictable last year in TRC.
I may have the Boks to win it, the more I think about it...

Maybe there's a HUGE upset in the making as we speak, about to set in, in a couple of weeks...some sort of X factor that will shift the momentum of the whole tournament....Argies beating a team that was on its way to claiming the trophy, Aussies tying in NZ or smt highly improbable like that...

 

[dasNdanger]

Not Argentina, of course, and not too confident for SA. Maybe Australia...but it'll be a hard-pressed win if they can pull it off.

The only hope for any of the teams is if the ABs get cocky, and blow it.



das

 

[TRF_heineken]

Not Argentina, of course, and not too confident for SA. Maybe Australia...but it'll be a hard-pressed win if they can pull it off.

The only hope for any of the teams is if the ABs get cocky, and blow it.

das

Why not SA?

Did you see ou squad which was announced this morning?

Fourie Du Preez is Back!!!!

Oh, and Guthro Steenkamp

 

[dasNdanger]

Why not SA?

Did you see ou squad which was announced this morning?

Fourie Du Preez is Back!!!!

Oh, and Guthro Steenkamp

Wow. I finally figured out how to get someone to quote me.

And why not SA? I dunno. I just feel like the SA Super Rugby teams didn't have the fire they've had in the past couple years. However, I realize when taking the best of those teams and putting them together against the best of NZ and OZ, then you have a totally different ballgame. Talent may be spread out more evenly in one country than it is in another, making individual club teams technically weaker, but the national team stronger. Of course, you can have a team like the Landers, full of talent yet at the bottom of the pile, and still that talent manages to come through on the international level.

Arrgh. I really don't know. I'm just blowing all this out my butt.


das

 

[yarmolinsky]

I do hope springboks will make it this year. It's not that I do not like AB, I love this team in fact, I just like boks a bit more =)))

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I do hope springboks will make it this year. It's not that I do not like AB, I love this team in fact, I just like boks a bit more =)))

You bring a happy tear to my eye.

 

[Larksea]

Will be interesting.

Aussies have a new coach with a point to prove and players that may respond better to him than their previous coach, give them a clean slate.

All Blacks have McCaw back but it's hard to say how much of an impact he will have after only 40min or so of super rugby and a club game. maybe some warm up matches before then.

The ABs will also have some rookies and will be using a new game plan compared to last year which was something they worked on against the french.

I'm going to be completely honest and just say that SA are a total mystery to me. Because of the timezone difference and lack of NZ vs SA teams in the S15 finals I've seen less South African rugby this year than I even have since I got sky 3-4 years ago.

I find it hard to believe that Du Preez and Steenkamp will help turn the tables on the All Blacks. Sure they have played big roles in wins over the AB's in the past. If anything SA will need to do their homework on the 3 young Halfbacks in the NZ squad. Smith, TKB and TJP are immense talents and will help speed up the AB game compared to the Marshall/Weepu/Cowan/Elis days where our 9's slowed and wasted a lot of ball.

SA's best chance to beat the AB's is to destroy them in the lineouts and kick goals from everywhere. But with the strength of the current NZ locks, no Frans steyn and Morne not used so much they may be forced to lay un-sprinkbok like rugby to win.

Optomisim seems to be very low for Argentina right now. The honeymoon is over you would expect they really need a win this year but the feeling is not good.

 

[Big Ewis]

I don't care what ppl say about Argentina, I keep faith in them, real faith that is. They may not finally beat NZ this year, but they're in this tournament for a reason, not just as an excuse. They want to win, and they came DAMN close last year numerous times. But I like your expression, Larksea, "honeymoon". I see what you mean, good analogy: right now Argentina aren't just guest tourists, this is it, they've GOT to win at least one, and none of the SANZAR sides is willing to be the first !...

I'm very intrigued in seeing S.A. The quadrangular tournament was just too confusing: they crush Italy, have a super mega hard time against Scotland (minus key players) at home - though both Italy and Scotland lost convincingly to Samoa - which itself gets ANNIHILATED tier 2 style by the Boks...
The current strength of the Boks is a mystery to me too, and besides that last Bulls match I haven't seen any SA, SR action...just the int'l tests.

 

[admartian]

I think Argentina's best chance is an early win against the Wallabies if they can muscle them for most of the game and if they can capitalise with 1 or 2 tries.

It'll be very hard to contain the Wallaby backs though.

 

[smartcooky]

Wow. I finally figured out how to get someone to quote me.

And why not SA? I dunno. I just feel like the SA Super Rugby teams didn't have the fire they've had in the past couple years. However, I realize when taking the best of those teams and putting them together against the best of NZ and OZ, then you have a totally different ballgame. Talent may be spread out more evenly in one country than it is in another, making individual club teams technically weaker, but the national team stronger. Of course, you can have a team like the Landers, full of talent yet at the bottom of the pile, and still that talent manages to come through on the international level.

Arrgh. I really don't know. I'm just blowing all this out my butt.


das

Super Rugby form has never been a clear indication of 3N/RC form.

Of the 17 Super Rugby tournaments held up to and including 2012, in only 12 of them has the country of the winning team gone on to win the 3N/Rugby Championship, NZ has done it nine times, Australia twice, South Africa once

One really notable exception was 1998, where three New Zealand teams contested the semi-finals (Blues, Highlanders and Crusaders - who went on to win it.) while the bottom four teams were the Stormers, Brumbies, Bulls and Lions. New Zealand then thrashed England in two tests (64-22 and 40-10) then promptly lost all four 3N matches, and the extra Bledisloe Cup test as well, five losses in a row, their second to worst losing streak of all time.

 

[Larksea]

IMO having teams in the super finals counts against 3N/TRC performance

Countries with little/no involvement in super finals get to freshen up and spend more time preparing for the test matches.

Seen it in the past when NZ has had multiple teams in super finals and then struggled when the test matches start because of player fatigue and reduced buildup.

 

[donmcdazzle]

I think the ABs will lose an away game to both SA and Aus this year. Aus will be much better under McKenzie. And I'm pretty sure the NZ sides are the worst at defending the lineout rolling maul which I can see SA punishing us with.

I'm writing off Argentina I think they'll get hammered in every away game, they'll have to hope for an ambush performance at home and some injuries to the other teams.

 

[psychic duck]

I think the ABs will lose an away game to both SA and Aus this year. Aus will be much better under McKenzie. And I'm pretty sure the NZ sides are the worst at defending the lineout rolling maul which I can see SA punishing us with.

I'm writing off Argentina I think they'll get hammered in every away game, they'll have to hope for an ambush performance at home and some injuries to the other teams.

Signs suggest from the selection in their warm up games vs Waratahs that they may be selecting a defence orientated team with the same "happy just not to get hammered" attitude they brought to South Africa and New Zealand last year as opposed to them likely going to win. Doesn't change the result, but could well change the type of match and type of scoreline.

 

[admartian]

Signs suggest from the selection in their warm up games vs Waratahs that they may be selecting a defence orientated team with the same "happy just not to get hammered" attitude they brought to South Africa and New Zealand last year as opposed to them likely going to win. Doesn't change the result, but could well change the type of match and type of scoreline.

I'll be dissappointed if that's what they go for.

They should try to build and encourage a more open style (not necessarily fully free flowing) but include some backs which have a bit more flair, and encourage that play style should the game dictate it. Even if it means sucking for a couple of years and getting hammered - at least that way, they get to try and hone that aspect of the game.

 

[donmcdazzle]

I'll be dissappointed if that's what they go for.

They should try to build and encourage a more open style (not necessarily fully free flowing) but include some backs which have a bit more flair, and encourage that play style should the game dictate it. Even if it means sucking for a couple of years and getting hammered - at least that way, they get to try and hone that aspect of the game.

Agreed. Damage limitation will never win you any games. They need to have a go at playing a bit to really gauge how to consistently put these teams under pressure and score some points.

The way they played against the ABs over in Argentina was great. They had a real go and made some brilliant play. We put a few points on them but at least they showed they could open us up a bit. They need to do more of that even though in the short term the score lines may not flatter them.

 

[dasNdanger]

Super Rugby form has never been a clear indication of 3N/RC form.

Of the 17 Super Rugby tournaments held up to and including 2012, in only 12 of them has the country of the winning team gone on to win the 3N/Rugby Championship, NZ has done it nine times, Australia twice, South Africa once

One really notable exception was 1998, where three New Zealand teams contested the semi-finals (Blues, Highlanders and Crusaders - who went on to win it.) while the bottom four teams were the Stormers, Brumbies, Bulls and Lions. New Zealand then thrashed England in two tests (64-22 and 40-10) then promptly lost all four 3N matches, and the extra Bledisloe Cup test as well, five losses in a row, their second to worst losing streak of all time.

Thanks! You're one smart cookie...

Anyhoo...12 out of 17 - that's about 70%, right? So wouldn't that mean that the other teams only have a 30% chance of winning? (I'm terrible at math, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong!)

And let's just forget '98 never happened, k? (That was before I started watching the game, thank goodness!)


das

 

[SomeOke]

The SA team needs some time to marinade before we can win the RC, and probably even get a win over NZ.
Don't get me wrong I like our team but we have a few rough edges on our up and coming stars. Willie le Roux is great but makes the odd mistake, same goes with JJ Engelbregt and Eben being silly at times. Also we need depth in some positions, namely front row and scrum half, it's great to have Guthro and Fourie back but they are hardly long term options and Fourie hasn't played decent opposition in a while. Personally I'd be happy with not losing to the Argies and beating Aus away, but more importantly a growth in the play style we have recently displayed.

 

[smartcooky]

Thanks! You're one smart cookie...

Anyhoo...12 out of 17 - that's about 70%, right? So wouldn't that mean that the other teams only have a 30% chance of winning? (I'm terrible at math, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong!)

And let's just forget '98 never happened, k? (That was before I started watching the game, thank goodness!)


das

12 of 17 is no certainty.

Its only happened twice that a NZ team won Super Rugby and the All Blacks didn't go on to win 3N/RC; 1998, and 2000, so its about due!!

Someone out there may be to translate all this into TAB odds, but I reckon payouts would be about

NZL win $1.50

SAF win $4

AUS win $7

ARG win $LOTS

None of those odds would make me want to bet real money!!

 

[Da Grappla]

I could see SA beating NZ at home and AUS beating them on one match too if injuries don't come easy (they will )

But...yeh, the tournament, and the Bledisloe Cup would be theirs once again.

P.S: I liked final Bledisloe Cup matchs being played abroad...I know it's over.