Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament

[Brigantine]

Resuming this weekend is the Rugby Europe Championship i.e. European qualifying.

Current Table:

1. Romania - 15
2. Spain - 13
3. Russia - 9
4. Germany - 8
5. Belgium - 2

Games this weekend: (both start at 11:00 UTC)

• Romania (15th - 69.58RP) vs Germany (27th - 56.53RP) - Chance of Romanian win: 100%
  
• Russia (19th - 64.45RP) vs Spain (20th - 61.68RP) - Chance of Russian win: 79%

Whoever wins the Russia vs Spain game will become the dominant favourite to become Europe 2 and make the Repechage Tournament.
A Spanish win would also bring the Europe 1 spot into serious contention for next week. (in Pool A with Japan, Ireland, Scotland and 2 of Samoa/Romania/Spain)

 

[Welshdragon2000]

I just posted on the Romanian rugby page that the Romania - Spain is the big one but i didn't realise how close Russia were to Spain in the table. I'm going for Spain by 3 though, Russia just don't seem to turn up for the big games (or at least when I've watched them they haven't!). The weather will be a big factor on this game. Dry weather all week and on the day should boost Spain's chances, a wet, muddy game will play into Russia's hands. Last year's game was a washout and Spain should have won by 15 points but they just couldn't play their game in the tough conditions.

 

[amz]

The weather will be a big factor on this game. Dry weather all week and on the day should boost Spain's chances, a wet, muddy game will play into Russia's hands. Last year's game was a washout and Spain should have won by 15 points but they just couldn't play their game in the tough conditions.

It could be very different. Russian pack isn't quality and they relay more on their backs while many from Spanish pack play in France. I know it is a common bias to assume Eastern European teams are forwards based ones but not the case with Russia.

 

[Brigantine]

That Russia vs Spain game last Saturday is a big result with implications for RWC 2019 qualification, and for Pool B.

Firstly, Belgium faces official elimination as early as next weekend, if Spain gets a losing BP vs Romania and Belgium doesn't get one vs Russia.
(though in practice Belgium was already out of contention last 6NB)

Secondly, in practical terms Russia - who previously were the closest to being favourites for that 20th RWC place with a 37% chance - are now out of contention.
(they still have a tiny 0.5% chance)

Thirdly, Spain is the major beneficiary of Russia's demise and emerge as the first (20th) actual favourites to qualify - with a 61% chance.
(though not necessarily as the Repechage Tournament winner, as they may qualify before then)

and Finally, Romania faces a significantly increased threat to their top position in European qualifying, (down from 94.0% to 81% chance of finishing as Europe 1), which also means a significantly higher chance that either Romania or Samoa will win the Repechage Tournament and qualify to Pool B instead of Pool A.

• Counter-intuitively, this improves Romania and Samoa's chances of finishing 3rd or 4th in their Pool - as Italy/Namibia are weaker opponents than Japan and Samoa/Romania.
• It improves Portugal's chances by half, as they have more hope of winning a play-off against a strong Spain than (as things stood last week) an even stronger Russia. (Spain is still 1.19 RP below where Russia was, so not quite the same threat.)
• More predictably, it harms (but only very slightly) the other Repechage Tournament team's qualification chances - mainly Canada and Hong Kong - and also Italy's chance of finishing 3rd in pool. This effect would be larger, but it is mitigated by the reduced threat these teams face from Russia. (same as with Portugal)

Spain vs Romania this weekend promises to be more significant! Especially if Spain wins. Canada and Hong Kong should be hoping for an Oaks win. (Romania is favoured 74%-26%)

Personally, I want Spain to win - I'd like to see Italy and Romania in the same pool again. Besides - having a lower ranked team in Pool A would be good for Japan!

[End of commentary. Everything past here is just stats.]
--------------------
Chances of Qualifying
+/- Changes from last week

• to Pool A (2): Romania 90.5% -6.0, Samoa 80% -3, Spain 29% +21, Portugal 0.3% +0.1, Russia 0.1% -12
  • As Europe 1: Romania 81% -13, Spain 19% +15, Russia 0% -1.8
  • As Play-Off W: Samoa 80% -3, Romania 10% +7.5, Spain 9.5% +6.0, Portugal 0.3% +0.1, Russia 0.1% -11

• to Pool B (2): Namibia 87% NC, Spain 33% +16, Canada 20% -1, Samoa 17% +2, Hong Kong 16% NC, Kenya 12% NC, Romania 8.5% +6.3, Portugal 3.5% +1.3, Uganda 1.0% NC, Morocco 0.9% NC, Russia 0.4% -24, Korea 0.2% NC, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Germany <0.1% -0.2, Tunisia <0.1%
  • As Africa 1: Namibia 86%, Kenya 11%, Uganda 1.0%, Morocco 0.9%, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%
  • As Repechage: Spain 33% +16, Canada 20% -1, Samoa 17% +2, Hong Kong 16% (-0.2), Romania 8.5% +6.3, Portugal 3.5% +1.3, Kenya 1.0%, Namibia 0.8%, Russia 0.4% -24, Korea 0.2%, Germany <0.1% -0.2, Uganda <0.1%

• to any pool (4): Romania 99.0% +0.2, Samoa 97.5% -0.5, Namibia 87% NC, Spain 61% +36, Canada 20% -1, Hong Kong 16% NC, Kenya 12% NC, Portugal 3.7% +1.3, Uganda 1.0% NC, Morocco 0.9% NC, Russia 0.5% -36.5, Korea 0.2% NC, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Germany <0.1% -0.2, Tunisia <0.1%

--------------------
Chances of Pool Placements

• The only team still in qualifying with any chance of a Quarterfinal is Romania, with 0.1% NC. (via Pool A, against New Zealand)

• Top 3 in Pool: (Japan 93.5% +0.5, Italy 86% -1), Samoa 9.0% +1.0, Romania 7.0% +2.0, Spain 3.0% +1.6, [Other 1.6% NC], Russia 0% -4.0
  • in Pool A: Ireland 100%, Scotland 99.8% +0.2, Japan 93.5% +0.5, Romania 4.0% NC, Samoa 3.0% NC
  • in Pool B: New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 86% -1, Samoa 6.0% +1.0, Romania 3.0% +2.2, Spain 3.0% +1.6, Canada 0.6% -0.2, Namibia 0.5% +0.1, Hong Kong 0.4% +0.1, Portugal 0.1% +0.1, Russia 0% -4.0

• Top 4 in Pool (2+): Romania 61% +4, Samoa 58% +3, Spain 31% +17, Namibia 24% NC, Canada 13%, Hong Kong 10%, Portugal 2.2% +1.0, Kenya 2.0% +0.2, Russia 0.3% -24, Other 0.1% -0.1
  • in Pool A: Ireland 100%, Scotland 100%, Japan 99.4% +0.1, Romania 53% -2, Samoa 41% NC, Spain 6.5% +5.1, Portugal <0.1% +0.1, Russia 0% -3.5
  • in Pool B: New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 99.8% NC, Spain 25% +13, Samoa 17% +3, Romania 8.0% +5.8, Namibia 24% NC, Canada 13%, Hong Kong 10%, Portugal 2.2% +1.0, Kenya 2.0% +0.2, Russia 0.3% -21, Germany <0.1% -0.1, Uganda <0.1%, Korea <0.1%, Morocco <0.1% +<0.1

--------------------
For comparison, the chances for teams already qualified:

• France (C) --- QF: 42% -2, Top 3: 85% -1, --- Top 4: 98.8% -0.2
  
• Japan (A) ---- QF: 26% -1, Top 3: 93.5% +0.5, Top 4: 99.4% NC
• Fiji (D) -------- QF: 20% NC, Top 3: 79% NC, - Top 4: 98.8% -0.2
  
• Italy (B) ------ QF 0.8% NC, Top 3: 86% -1, -- Top 4: 99.8% NC
  
• Tonga (C) -- QF: 5.5% +0.5, Top 3: 23% +0.5, Top 4: 81% NC
  
• Georgia (D) - QF: 2.0% NC, Top 3: 21% -0.2, Top 4: 86% -1.5
  
• USA (C) ----- QF: 0.2% NC, Top 3: 2.0% +0.2, Top 4: 21% NC
  
• Uruguay (D) ----------------- Top 3: 1.0% +0.2, Top 4: 15% +1.5

 

[Brigantine]

Wait no, Romania is only favoured 67%-33% vs Spain. (NOT 74%-26% as above, I Forgot to add the RP Spain just won off Russia).
Relatively competitive match up, similar to France vs Italy or Wales vs France.

I'd give Romania a better chance than that, subjectively - but that's what the rankings say.

 

[Brigantine]

Well it came to pass. The qualification chances of Canada, Hong Kong etc. just got cut in half, Portugal and Russia's got cut by 3/4, Spain is up to 91%, (we now have 4 strong favourites to take the 4 remaining qualifying spots), and Italy has a pretty good chance of getting Samoa or Romania in their pool.

Belgium is also officially eliminated, taking us down to 17 teams still chasing qualification, 16 already qualified and 57 eliminated.
--------------------
Chances of Qualifying
+/- Changes from last week

• to Pool A (2): Romania 56% -34.5, Samoa 62% -18, Spain 82% +53, Portugal 0.1% -0.2, Russia 0% -0.1
  • As Europe 1: Romania 21% -60, Spain 79% +60
  • As Play-Off W: Samoa 62% -18, Romania 35% +25, Spain 3.0% -6.5, Portugal 0.1% -0.2, Russia 0% -0.1

• to Pool B (2): Namibia 87% NC, Romania 35% +26.5, Samoa 34% +17, Canada 12% -8, Kenya 12% NC, Spain 8.5% -24.5, Hong Kong 8.0% -8, Uganda 1.0% NC, Portugal 0.8% -2.7, Morocco 0.9% NC, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%, Russia 0.1% -0.3, Korea 0% -0.2, Germany 0% -<0.1
  • As Africa 1: Namibia 86%, Kenya 11%, Uganda 1.0%, Morocco 0.9%, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%
  • As Repechage: Romania 35% +26.5, Samoa 34% +17, Canada 12% -8, Spain 8.5% -24.5, Hong Kong 8.0% -8, Portugal 0.8% -2.7, Namibia 0.3% -0.5, Kenya 0.2% -0.8, Russia 0.1% -0.3, Korea 0% -0.2, Germany 0% -<0.1, Uganda 0% -<0.1

• to any pool (4): Samoa 95.5% -2.0, Romania 92.5% -6.5, Spain 91.0% +30, Namibia 87% NC, Canada 12% -8, Kenya 12% NC, Hong Kong 8.0% -8, Portugal 1.0% -2.7, Uganda 1.0% NC, Morocco 0.9% NC, Russia 0.1% -0.4, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%, Korea 0% -0.2, Germany 0% -<0.1

How things stand:

• 17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including:
  • 12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-8, 10-12, 14)
    
  • 15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 17, 9, 13)
    
  • 16 - Samoa (15) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament
  • 17 - Canada (21) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament
• 18 - Uruguay (18) earned the spot for the Americas and qualified directly as Americas 2
  
• 28 - 10 more countries from Europe (4) and Africa (6) are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the repechage process as a Plan B.
  • 22 - the 4 European countries have the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (B1), and then the Repechage Tournament (B2). (WRR 16, 19, 20, 26)
    
  • 28 - for the 6 African countries, Plan B is only the Repechage Tournament. - Namibia (23), Kenya (30), Uganda (35), Morocco (38), Tunisia (43), Zimbabwe (44)
• 33 - 5 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23.
  • 29 - Portugal (24) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (Plan A1), or the Repechage Tournament (A2)
  • 33 - 3 Asian countries and Tahiti are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament. - Hong Kong (22), Korea (32), Malaysia (46), Tahiti (85)

• 57 countries eliminated

 

[Brigantine]

Germany may be eliminated this weekend - they need at least 3 table points from the Belgium game to retain a mathematical possibility of qualifying.

 

[Brigantine]

Germany and Russia are officially eliminated, taking us down to 15 teams still chasing qualification, 16 already qualified and 59 eliminated. Russia was in the 2011 RWC - the only other former RWC participant who has already been eliminated is Ivory Coast (51) who were at the 1995 RWC.

Romania and Spain are now safe in the top 2 places in the ERC. Only Portugal stands in their way of the final 23.
(6 points clear of Russia, who only have 1 game left that counts, and 13 points clear of Germany who have 2 games left)

The results last weekend which had significant influence on qualification chances were:

• Canada vs Chile - Canada gained 1.28 RP, raising their chances in the Repechage Tournament from 12% to 18% at the expense of Spain (~2.5%), Samoa (~1.5%), Romania (~1.0%) and Hong Kong (~1.0%).
  
• Belgium vs Germany - The 1.22 RP Belgium gained off Germany here reduces the chance Spain will win the away game in Belgium by about 6%. The effects on Spain vs Germany and Romania vs Belgium are smaller because those games are less competitive, so Spain's chance of finishing top of the table and qualifying as Europe 1 also reduces by about 3%.
• Romania vs Russia - There was a small risk Romania would lose this game and finish narrowly behind Spain in the table. That risk is now gone, so Romania's chance of recovering the Europe 1 spot increases a further ~2%.

--------------------
Chances of Qualifying
+/- Changes from 2 weeks ago

• to Pool A (2): Romania 60% +4, Spain 78% -4, Samoa 62% NC, Portugal 0.1% NC
  • As Europe 1: Romania 26% +5, Spain 74% -5
  • As Play-Off W: Samoa 62% NC, Romania 34% -1, Spain 4.0% +1.0, Portugal 0.1% NC

• to Pool B (2): Namibia 87% NC, Romania 32% -5, Samoa 32% -1.5, Canada 18% +6, Kenya 12% NC, Spain 10.0% +1.5, Hong Kong 7.0% -1.0, Uganda 1.0% NC, Portugal 1.0% +0.2, Morocco 0.9% NC, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%, Korea <0.1% +<0.1, Russia 0% -0.1
  • As Africa 1: Namibia 86%, Kenya 11%, Uganda 1.0%, Morocco 0.9%, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%
  • As Repechage: Romania 32% -5, Samoa 32% -1.5, Canada 18% +6, Spain 10.0% +1.5, Hong Kong 7.0% -1.0, Portugal 1.0% +0.2, Namibia 0.2% -1.0, Kenya 0.2% NC, Russia 0% -0.1, Korea <0.1% +<0.1

• to any pool (4): Samoa 94.0% -1.5, Romania 91.5% -1.0, Spain 88% -3.0, Namibia 87% NC, Canada 18% +6, Kenya 12% NC, Hong Kong 7.0% -1.0, Portugal 1.2% +0.2, Uganda 1.0% NC, Morocco 0.9% NC, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%, Korea <0.1% +<0.1, Russia 0% -0.1

How things stand:

• 17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including:
  • 12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-8, 10-12, 14)
    
  • 15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 15, 9, 13)
    
  • 16 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament
  • 17 - Canada (21) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament
• 18 - Uruguay (18) earned the spot for the Americas and qualified directly as Americas 2
  
• 26 - 8 more countries from Europe (2) and Africa (6) are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the repechage process as a Plan B.
  • 20 - Romania (17) and Spain (19) have the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (B1), and then the Repechage Tournament (B2).
    
  • 26 - for the 6 African countries, Plan B is only the Repechage Tournament. - Namibia (23), Kenya (30), Uganda (35), Morocco (38), Tunisia (43), Zimbabwe (44)
• 31 - 5 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23.
  • 27 - Portugal (24) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (Plan A1), or the Repechage Tournament (A2)
  • 31 - 3 Asian countries and Tahiti are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament. - Hong Kong (22), Korea (32), Malaysia (46), Tahiti (85)

• 59 countries eliminated (Including Russia (20) and WRR 25-29)

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Canada at an 18% chance. Ouch!

Someone big is going to miss out. Pretty brutal qualifiers and repechage lie ahead.

 

[Brigantine]

In the end, despite all the excitement over the last month or so, Romania survive their upset losses to Germany and Spain and qualify as Europe 1. They become the 17th team qualified for RWC 2019, and the 19th to qualify for the final 23.

WR can now book the Oaks in for June Internationals, and the Europe 2 final will be Spain vs Portugal. (Date TBD, Spain is favoured 85%-15%)

The qualification chances for Canada, Africa 2 and Asia/Oceania just doubled - we're back to anticipating a Repechage Tournament with no clear favourite.

--------------------
Chances of Qualifying
+/- Changes from 2 weeks ago

• to Pool A (Romania + 1): Samoa 87.5% +25.5, Spain 12% -66, Portugal 0.5% +0.4
  • As Play-Off Winner: Samoa 87.5% +25.5, Spain 12% +8.0, Portugal 0.5% +0.4

• to Pool B (2): Namibia 87% +0.5, Spain 35% +25, Canada 34% +16, Hong Kong 15% +8.0, Kenya 12% +0.5, Samoa 10.0% -22, Portugal 4.0% +3.0, Uganda 1.0% NC, Morocco 1.0% NC, Korea 0.2% +0.1, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%, Romania 0% -32
  • As Africa 1: Namibia 86%, Kenya 11%, Uganda 1.0%, Morocco 1.0%, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%
  • As Repechage: Spain 35% +25, Canada 34% +16, Hong Kong 15% +8.0, Samoa 10.0% -22, Portugal 4.0% +3.0, Kenya 0.8% +0.6, Namibia 0.6% +0.4, Korea 0.2% +0.1, Uganda <0.1% +<0.1, Romania 0% -32

• to any pool (3): Samoa 97.8% +3.8, Namibia 87% +0.5, Spain 47% -41, Canada 34% +16, Hong Kong 15% +8.0, Kenya 12% +0.5, Portugal 4.5% +3.3, Uganda 1.0% NC, Morocco 1.0% NC, Korea 0.2% +0.1, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%

How things stand:

• 17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including:
  • 12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-9, 11, 12, 14)
    
  • 15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 15, 10, 13)
    
  • 16 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament
  • 17 - Canada (21) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament
• 18 - Uruguay (18) earned the spot for the Americas and qualified directly as Americas 2
• 19 - Romania (17) qualified directly as Europe 1
• 25 - 6 countries from Africa are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as a Plan B.
  • Namibia (24), Kenya (30), Uganda (35), Morocco (39), Tunisia (43), Zimbabwe (44)
• 31 - 5 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23.
  • 27 - Spain (20) and Portugal (23) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa, or the Repechage Tournament. (Spain failed direct qualification)
  • 31 - 3 Asian countries and Tahiti are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament.
    • Hong Kong (22), Korea (31), Malaysia (45), Tahiti (85)

• 59 countries eliminated (Including Russia (19) and WRR 25-29)

 

[Brigantine]

Apparently Tahiti (85) has been disqualified from RWC 2019 due to player eligibility issues.

Does that mean the Cook Islands (55) are back in with a hypothetical chance?

[UPDATE: found the link to ARN's story about it (added above). And the answer is yes. But amz beat me to it!]

 

[amz]

Yes.

https://www.worldrugby.org/news/321975?lang=en

 

[amz]

I wonder how those % look after last two weeks

 

[Brigantine]

Yeah... I have to leave open the possibility Romania will have all their results overturned and Spain will be removed from the table entirely for assaulting a referee... and the Belgium vs Germany game also gets overturned... Then 3 countries will be back from elimination!

All it takes is for some ineligible players to participate in the Repechage Tournament and Malaysia, Tunisia or the Cook Islands might still qualify

But nothing changes until Rugby Europe actually announce something, and if they wait long enough it will be too late to change anything

 

[amz]

Was fascinating to see the changes you're made and I tried to find the formula behind it. I guess after 20 years quitting math and only be bothered by basic accounting math can't help

I can't believe it how they missed Faka'osilea cap. I don't wanna talk about Spain.

 

[Brigantine]

The simple solution would be to invalidate the entire 2018 season, and for qualifying just use the table as it stood after the 2017 season. How many match results from the 2018 season are actually uncontested? Only Russia vs Belgium and Germany vs Russia?

And those percentages are not calculated by any simple formula, it's from 10,000 simulations of the entire qualification process and RWC. I mean, each match is based on a formula with WR Rankings, but also each team has a random adjustment with a SD of 1.77, and home advantage, ties and bonus points all feature. It isn't based on past statistics like 538's election models, (other than WRR and roughly how often draws happen), but it means I calculate things the same way each time and with no subjective decisions affecting any one team.

I guess my main hope for that model was that nothing in reality would happen, that the model ever said was extremely unlikely or impossible. These political/legal judgements overturning historical results are really messing things up!

 

[amz]

I agree but I am thinking further, why 2018 was so crap? And one of the issues is Europe had to face a removal of one qualifying place after 2015 Georgia's direct qualifications.

 

[Brigantine]

I really don't see how Georgia qualifying directly really changes anything. It made the table more complicated because it's separate from the Championship table... but all the issues are about things that happened at actual games, and not problems with how the game results are added up in a table.

I also have to suspect the new scale of problems is largely because of the extra eyes watching everything. A few years ago there weren't TV cameras, live streams and video records of everything. There might have been all the same problems behind the scenes, just not making it into the news.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

As painful as it will be for Romania it is essential to be consistent with the penalties for fielding ineligible players. If Romania are penalised would they not end up in the relegation match against Portugal? Wasn't Faka ever present in this season's REC?

 

[amz]

I really don't see how Georgia qualifying directly really changes anything. It made the table more complicated because it's separate from the Championship table... but all the issues are about things that happened at actual games, and not problems with how the game results are added up in a table.

I also have to suspect the new scale of problems is largely because of the extra eyes watching everything. A few years ago there weren't TV cameras, live streams and video records of everything. There might have been all the same problems behind the scenes, just not making it into the news.

Georgia being qualified directly changed the process, one place of Europe was moved to PI. Before this it was EU1 & 2 qualified directly and 3rd going to play offs/repechage but to make room for one of the PI teams they removed one place from Rugby Europe.

Few years ago all our matches were broadcasted properly, like any other test, same for Georgia. Spain and Germany had also TV coverage. It's not much different nowdays.

As painful as it will be for Romania it is essential to be consistent with the penalties for fielding ineligible players. If Romania are penalised would they not end up in the relegation match against Portugal? Wasn't Faka ever present in this season's REC?

Yes it was present so Romania and Spain can fight for relegation (I belive Spain have 2 players ineligible). I agree with consistence, strict liability will be applied in determine guilt, however the decision may be different due to mitigating factors which are part of WR regulations as well. Tahiti as far as I know made no effort to assure themselves their players are eligible.

In Grannygate T1 nations got a fee and a pat on the back ^^ and one Scottish had 39 caps at the time of the scandal