Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament

[Brigantine]

If Malaysia (48) lose this game today in Korea (31), they'll be eliminated. (Actually, just conceding a BP will be enough to eliminate them if they don't earn a TBP)

But we won't reach a new maximum number of countries eliminated, because Germany and Russia returned from the dead, while Romania and Spain are not yet eliminated as they can still appeal.

 

[amz]

But we won't reach a new maximum number of countries eliminated, because Germany and Russia returned from the dead, while Romania and Spain are not yet eliminated as they can still appeal.

Do you really think there are chances for a succesfull appeal for Romania? There is maybe a small chance to make it to Play off/ Repechage with less points deducted per match but to me is more a political decision as it fails in many aspects (proportionality of punishments, mitigating factors etc.) I think Spain's position is lot worse, they did not acknowledged the breach in the first place and have more players in this situation. Heck they even have an aggravating factor according with Reg. 19 Appendix 1 (Fabien Grammatico).

 

[Brigantine]

Do you really think there are chances for a succesfull appeal for Romania? [...] I think Spain's position is lot worse

For Romania, I think it's unlikely but also entirely realistic. The fact that fully half of the teams in the competition made mistakes, and that it went on for two complete seasons before the topic was even raised by Rugby Europe or World Rugby, and the fact that the preliminary judgement leads to some absurd outcomes, make a good (IMO) case that placing the blame 100% on the teams for every single error is not consistent with proportionality of punishment (as you put it)...

For Spain, any outcome that doesn't eliminate Spain basically does nothing at all, and that won't be politically acceptable, so I agree that them being saved is not realistic.

But I'm trying to be consistent. The Cook Islands have zero chance of qualifying to the final 23, but they aren't technically eliminated yet. Until the lawyers have all their i's dotted and t's crossed, Spain is in the same category as the Cook Islands in that respect.

Heck they even have an aggravating factor according with Reg. 19 Appendix 1 (Fabien Grammatico).

I must have missed something there. What's the story? Do you have a link?

 

[amz]

Grammatico played for Spain in 2015 while he was tied for France because of Sevens. WR never bothered to pursue even a formal punishment for this breach until now.

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabien_Grammatico_(rugby_à_XV)

 

[Brigantine]

Malaysia (already eliminated by Korea last week) just got slaughtered in Hong Kong. So with one game to go in Asian qualifying, Hong Kong has 14 points and +149 PD and Korea 10 points and +71 PD. Hong Kong also lead Korea head-to-head by 4 table points and +9 PD.

The final game is Hong Kong vs Korea this Saturday.
One of those teams will qualify to a Play-off against the Cook Islands (away 30/06 & home 07/07) to reach the Qualifying Tournament. The other will be eliminated.

Barring a situation where only the losing team earns a try bonus point, Korea qualify if they win by 39+, and Hong Kong qualify if they lose by 7 or less.
(if the margin is in between, who qualifies depends on try bonus points if Korea earns one but Hong Kong doesn't, and beyond that I don't know as I'm not sure what tie-breakers are used)

By this Thursday, European qualifying should be resolved from legal limbo, (other than the Portugal play-off), so on Saturday we should be down to:

• 17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including:
  • 12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-9, 11, 12, 14)
    
  • 15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 15, 10, 13)
    
  • 16 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament
  • 17 - Canada (21) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament
• 18 - Uruguay (18) earned the spot for the Americas and qualified directly as Americas 2
• 19 - Provisionally Russia (19) will have qualified directly as Europe 1
• 25 - 6 countries from Africa are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as a Plan B.
  • Namibia (24), Kenya (28), Uganda (37), Morocco (38), Tunisia (42), Zimbabwe (44)
• 29 - 4 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23.
  • 27 - Provisionally Germany (29) and also Portugal (23) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa, or the Repechage Tournament.
  • 29 - Either Hong Kong (22) or Korea (31) and also the Cook Islands (54) are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament.

• 61 countries eliminated - Including provisionally Romania (17) and Spain (20) and also WRR 25-27 & 30 (Belgium, Brazil, Netherlands, Chile).

Maybe after that, I'll crank up my probability simulations again. In time for Germany vs Portugal and the June tests WRR changes (except the one in DC).

 

[Brigantine]

The deadline to appeal has passed, but Romania and Spain have both appealed, so it seems this will drag on a bit longer.

 

[Brigantine]

Hong Kong win! Korea is eliminated, and Hong Kong become Asia 1 and progress to the inter-continental H&A Play-off vs the Cook Islands.

Still waiting on the outcome of legal wrangling from European qualifying.

 

[Brigantine]

It sounds like Portugal, when they go to Germany for the Europe-2 play-off, will be missing a few of their top players because of a fight.

Still no word on the appeal by Romania and Spain... at least that I've seen.

 

[amz]

Romania and Spain out. End of story for these two teams:

https://www.worldrugby.org/news/340527

 

[Welshdragon2000]

Probably is the right call by world rugby if they're looking to be consistant. Big hit for Romania and Spain though, was really looking forward to seeing what they could do. Now the ERC's 4th best team and 6th best team have gone through. Had Germany resolved their political difficulties within rugby then they would have a good shot but now, they will be beaten comfortably by Portugal who will lose to Samoa in the play-off.
At least the repechage will be interesting; Canada (ranked 21st), Hong Kong (22) and Portugal (23) will make for an interesting tournament along with Kenya (28).

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Probably is the right call by world rugby if they're looking to be consistant. Big hit for Romania and Spain though, was really looking forward to seeing what they could do. Now the ERC's 4th best team and 6th best team have gone through. Had Germany resolved their political difficulties within rugby then they would have a good shot but now, they will be beaten comfortably by Portugal who will lose to Samoa in the play-off.
At least the repechage will be interesting; Canada (ranked 21st), Hong Kong (22) and Portugal (23) will make for an interesting tournament along with Kenya (28).

Germany will have all players available for the playoffs.

 

[Welshdragon2000]

Germany will have all players available for the playoffs.

Thanks for clearing that up, it'll be an interesting game then

 

[Leinster Fan]

You'd imagine that Samoa will win that playoff handily enough whoever they're playing. The repechage will be interesting though. Canada would be favourites but I think all four teams would have a shot.

 

[Brigantine]

I think USA will give France a scare in the World Cup [...] Just imagine if they finished 3rd at the expense of France though (thinking of automatic qualification for next World Cup).

France is already automatically qualified for RWC 2023 because they're hosting it. So if France finished 4th in Pool in 2019, there would be 13 AQ teams and only 7 places open to qualifying.

-----------------------------------

Update:

• 17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including:
  • 12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-8, 10-12, 14)
    
  • 15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 15, 9, 13)
    
  • 16 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament
  • 17 - Canada (21) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament
• 18 - Uruguay (18) earned the spot for the Americas and qualified directly as Americas 2
• 19 - Russia (19) will have qualified directly as Europe 1
• 25 - 6 countries from Africa are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as a Plan B.
  • Namibia (24), Kenya (28), Uganda (37), Morocco (38), Tunisia (42), Zimbabwe (44)
• 29 - 4 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23.
  • 27 - Germany (29) and Portugal (23) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa, or the Repechage Tournament.
  • 29 - Hong Kong (22) and the Cook Islands (54) are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament.

• 61 countries eliminated - Including Romania (17) and Spain (20) and also WRR 25-27 & 30-36 (be, Brazil, nl, Chile, Korea, cz, ch, lt, pl, ua).

This weekend, Germany host Portugal (Portugal is favoured 60%-40%) and the loser is eliminated. Also African qualifying starts - the only remaining intra-continent qualifying. After that it's only Repechage to go.

Time for some projected probabilities:

Pool B as Africa 1: Namibia 79% -7, Kenya 19% +8, Morocco 0.8% -0.2, Uganda 0.4% -0.6, Zimbabwe 0.3% +0.2, Tunisia <0.1% nc
Pool A as Europe 1: Russia +100 (Romania -100)
Pool A as Play-Off Winner: Samoa 97.8% +10, Portugal 2.2% +1.7, Germany 0% nc, Spain 0% -12

Repechage Tournament Participants:

• Play-Off Loser: Portugal 58%, Germany 40%, Samoa 2.2%
  
• Americas 3: Canada
• Africa 2: Kenya 69%, Namibia 18%, Uganda 5.0%, Morocco 5.0%, Zimbabwe 1.4%, Tunisia 1.2%
  
• Asia/Oceania: Hong Kong >99.9%, Cook Islands <0.1%

Pool B as Repechage Winner: Canada 48% +14, Hong Kong 30% +15, Portugal 13% +9, Kenya 3.0% +2.2, Namibia 2.5% +1.9, Samoa 1.6% -8.5, Germany 1.6% +1.6, Spain 0% -35,
Repechage Runner-Up: Hong Kong 34%, Canada 30%, Portugal 17%, Kenya 8.5%, Germany 5.5%, Namibia 4.0%, Samoa 0.4%, Uganda 0.1%, Morocco <0.1%

 

[amz]

USA to give a scare to France? Anything under 30 pts margin will be a good result. Don't forget Eagles left the last RWC without a win and with a pretty bad impression left. If they will manage to keep MLR alive they will improve and be more competitive than other T2 nations but it's still a long way until they'll be able to give France a scare.

 

[Welshdragon2000]

USA to give a scare to France? Anything under 30 pts margin will be a good result. Don't forget Eagles left the last RWC without a win and with a pretty bad impression left. If they will manage to keep MLR alive they will improve and be more competitive than other T2 nations but it's still a long way until they'll be able to give France a scare.

Personally I see them at the quality of Tonga or maybe even above. France in recent years haven't been up to much at all but thinking about it actually they have quite a few very good players coming through. Not much more than 30 point margin I would say, I would currently predict a 20 point margin and then that could swing 10 points depending on if France turn up

 

[amz]

USA quality of Tonga? How come?

 

[Welshdragon2000]

We will see at the World Cup

 

[amz]

We will see at the World Cup

Sorry but I think you are super optimistic. USA pack had trouble with a Russian pack which is considered weak by European standards and couldn't match Romania or Georgia and was at best on par with Spain. Tonga was able to match Georgian and Romanian packs and matches between these nations were usually decided by less than a try.

USA will have a big match vs Tonga and will have its chance but England, France and Argentina are too far. They have only 5 days between England and France and this don't help. They'll have to probably drop the match vs Argentina if they want to have realistic chances to beat Tonga (3 days rest)

 

[Brigantine]

And Portugal are eliminated! at WRR 23, they are the highest ranked country so far to be eliminated based on sporting results.

This concludes European qualification. Germany (29) officially become Europe 2 and go to Samoa in 2 weeks for a Play-Off match.
This makes Germany one of the Final 23 and they will almost certainly be at the Repechage Tournament in France in November.

Namibia (24) get a big win against Uganda (37), who are 3rd ranked out of the Gold Cup teams, but Morocco (38), Tunisia (42) and Zimbabwe (44) are all within 1.68 RP of Uganda (37) so are essentially 3rd equal. So no great surprise that Zimbabwe vs Morocco was a draw!