Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament

[Brigantine]

Update:

• 17 - 17 countries had guaranteed spaces in the final 23:
  • 12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-8, 10-13)
    
  • 15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 15, 9, 14)
    
  • 16 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Germany, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament
  • 17 - Canada (22) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament
• 20 - 3 countries have earned* spaces in the final 23:
  • 18 - Uruguay (18) earned the Final 23 spot for the Americas, and qualified directly as Americas 2
  • 19 - Russia (19) qualified directly as Europe 1
  • 20 - Germany (29) earned* the Europe 2 spot, and can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa, or the Repechage Tournament
• 28 - 8 countries are still competing for the last 3 spaces in the Final 23:
  • 26 - 6 countries from Africa are still able to qualify directly as Africa 1, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as a Plan B. (as Africa 2).
    • Namibia (24), Kenya (28), Uganda (37), Morocco (38), Tunisia (42), Zimbabwe (44)
  • 28 - Hong Kong (21) and the Cook Islands (54) are only able to qualify at the Repechage Tournament. (As Asia 1/Oceania 4 Play-Off winner)

• 62 countries eliminated - Including Romania (17), Spain (20) and Portugal (23).

* - Well... I'm not sure "earned" is exactly the right word in the case of Russia and Germany

Projected Probabilities:

Hong Kong takes over from Canada as the slight favourite to win the Repechage Tournament, Samoa reaches 99.9% chance of qualifying, while Germany makes a credible appearance at 8.5% chance of qualifying.

Morocco vs Kenya this weekend might be interesting - Kenya is only favoured 68%-32%, and a loss here would open up the Africa 2 position into potentially a 5-way contest.

Pool B as Africa 1: Namibia 80% +1, Kenya 19% NC, Morocco 0.5% -0.3, Uganda 0.2% -0.2, Zimbabwe <0.1% -0.2, Tunisia <0.1% NC
Pool A as Play-Off Winner: Samoa 99.7% +1.9, Germany 0.3% +0.3, Portugal 0% -2.2

Repechage Tournament Participants:

• Play-Off Loser: Germany 99.7% +60, Samoa 0.3% -1.9, Portugal 0% -58
  
• Americas 3: Canada
• Africa 2: Kenya 70% +1, Namibia 18% NC, Uganda 5.0% NC, Morocco 5.0% NC, Zimbabwe 0.6% -0.8, Tunisia 1.2% NC
  
• Asia/Oceania: Hong Kong >99.9% NC, Cook Islands <0.1% NC

Pool B as Repechage Winner: Hong Kong 42% +12, Canada 41% -7, Germany 8.0% +6.4, Kenya 5.5% +2.5, Namibia 3.0% +0.5, Samoa 0.2% -1.4, Portugal 0% -13
Repechage Runner-Up: Canada 33% +3, Hong Kong 32% -2, Germany 18% +12.5, Kenya 12% +3.5, Namibia 4.5% +0.5, Uganda 0.2% +0.1, Morocco 0.1% +0.1, Samoa 0.1% -0.3, Portugal 0% -17, Other <0.1%

to any Pool (3): Samoa 99.9% +0.5, Namibia 84% +2, Hong Kong 42% +12, Canada 41% -7, Kenya 24% +2, Germany 8.5% +7.0, Morocco 0.5% -0.3, Uganda 0.2% -0.2, Zimbabwe <0.1% -0.2, Tunisia <0.1% NC, Portugal 0% -15

Chances of Pool Placements:

• The only team still in qualifying with any chance of a Quarterfinal is Samoa, with <0.1%. (via Pool A, against New Zealand)

• Top 3 in Pool: Samoa 5.5%, (Russia 0.6%), Hong Kong 0.5%, Canada 0.5%, Namibia 0.2%

• Top 4 in Pool A: Samoa 68% (and Russia 32%)
  
• Top 4 in Pool B: Namibia 37%, Hong Kong 27%, Canada 25%, Kenya 7.5%, Germany 3.5%, Samoa 0.2%, Morocco <0.1%, Other <0.1%

 

[Brigantine]

Projected Probabilities:

Kenya got a BP win out of a competitive game, picking up some RP in the process, so they are looking stronger - on paper at least. The prospects for the African underdogs took a massive hit. There's now a 12% chance that Namibia and Kenya will both be in South Africa's pool.

Canada drop some RP after a big loss to the USA, making them slightly more vulnerable at the Repechage Tournament, though they're still the 2nd choice.

Pool B as Africa 1: Namibia 74% -6, Kenya 26% +7, Uganda <0.1% -0.2, Morocco 0% -0.5, Zimbabwe 0% -<0.1, Tunisia 0% -<0.1%
Pool A as Play-Off Winner: Samoa 99.7% NC, Germany 0.3% NC

Repechage Tournament Participants:

• Play-Off Loser: Germany 99.7% NC, Samoa 0.3% NC
  
• Americas 3: Canada
• Africa 2: Kenya 71% +1, Namibia 25% +7, Uganda 2.5% -2.5, Morocco 0.8% -4.2, Tunisia 0.5% -0.7, Zimbabwe 0.5% -0.1
  
• Asia/Oceania: Hong Kong >99.9% NC, Cook Islands <0.1% NC

Pool B as Repechage Winner: Hong Kong 43% +1, Canada 37% -4, Germany 8.0% NC, Kenya 7.0% +1.5, Namibia 4.5% +1.5, Samoa 0.2% NC
Repechage Runner-Up: Canada 32% -1, Hong Kong 30% -2, Germany 17% -1, Kenya 14% +2, Namibia 6.5% +2.0, Samoa 0.1% NC, Uganda 0.1% -0.1, Other <0.1% -0.1

to any Pool (3): Samoa 99.9% NC, Namibia 78% -6, Hong Kong 43% +1, Canada 37% -4, Kenya 33% +9, Germany 8.5% NC, Uganda <0.1% -0.2, Other <0.1% -0.6,

Chances of Pool Placements:

• No teams still in qualifying have a chance of a Quarterfinal. (Samoa 0% -0.1)

• Top 3 in Pool: Samoa 3.5% -2.0, Hong Kong 0.5% NC, Canada 0.3% -0.2, Namibia 0.2% NC, (Russia 0.2% -0.4)

• Top 4 in Pool A: Samoa 68% NC (and Russia 32% NC)
  
• Top 4 in Pool B: Namibia 36% -1, Hong Kong 27% NC, Canada 22% -3, Kenya 11% +3.5, Germany 3.5% NC, Samoa 0.2% NC, Other 0% -0.1%

 

[Welshdragon2000]

I'm not sure if this affects your calculations but I believe Kenya didn't get a bonus point as the requirement for a bonus point is to have 3 tries more than the opppnent. This is what I read the other day anyway

 

[Brigantine]

hmm... it does affect the calculations, but so does Morocco's bonus point(s).

Do they really have 2 BPs then? or is that another mistake? Which game(s) did they earn it/them in?

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Would love for Hong Kong to get into the RWC

 

[Welshdragon2000]

hmm... it does affect the calculations, but so does Morocco's bonus point(s).

Do they really have 2 BPs then? or is that another mistake? Which game(s) did they earn it/them in?

I think there must be a mistake in the table as it is definitely a bonus point for winning by 3 or more tries and also by losing by within 7 points. It was a draw last week for Morocco (2pts) and a loss within 7pts (1pt) this week.

 

[Welshdragon2000]

Would love for Hong Kong to get into the RWC

Defintely, it would be excellent for Asian rugby. Would you prefer them to make it instead of Germany? Germany would be the total outsiders in the repechage (should they lose to Samoa).

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Defintely, it would be excellent for Asian rugby. Would you prefer them to make it instead of Germany? Germany would be the total outsiders in the repechage (should they lose to Samoa).

Germany would be better from a world rugby POV, if they can get some interest from them it could be massive for the game in Europe.
But Hong Kong are the better team and it would be nice to have two Asian countries in the Japanese World cup.

Germany for the French World cup would be perfect though.

 

[Brigantine]

Cook Islands vs Hong Kong is on youtube - kickoff in 2 hours.

 

[Brigantine]

For Germany and the Cook Islands, they still have the return leg so in theory can still win the play-off... but all probability is now against it as they now have such a large point deficit (Germany) and have used up their home advantage (Cook Islands).

So Samoa is rated 100% to make Pool A with Japan/Ireland/Scotland, and then Germany and Hong Kong 100% to be in the Repechage Tournament.

Namibia and Kenya each get past one more hurdle unscathed - Namibia also pick up another bonus point and 0.38 RP.

Projected Probabilities:

Pool B as Africa 1: Namibia 81% +7, Kenya 19% -7, Uganda <0.1% NC
Pool A as Play-Off Winner: Samoa 100% +0.3, Germany 0% -0.3

Repechage Tournament Participants:

• Play-Off Loser: Germany 100% +0.3, Samoa 0% -0.3
• Americas 3: Canada
• Africa 2: Kenya 77% +6, Namibia 19% -6, Uganda 3.5% +1.0, Tunisia 1.0% +0.5, Zimbabwe <0.1% -0.5, Morocco 0% -0.8
  
• Asia/Oceania: Hong Kong 100% +<0.1, Cook Islands 0% -<0.1

Pool B as Repechage Winner: Hong Kong 43% NC, Canada 37% NC, Germany 8.5% +0.5, Kenya 7.5% +0.5, Namibia 4.0% -0.5, Samoa 0% -0.2
Repechage Runner-Up: Canada 32% NC, Hong Kong 30% NC, Germany 17% NC, Kenya 15% +1, Namibia 5.0% -1.5, Uganda 0.1% NC, Other <0.1% NC, Samoa 0% -0.1%

to any Pool (3): Samoa 100% +0.1, Namibia 85% +7, Hong Kong 43% NC, Canada 37% NC, Kenya 26% -7, Germany 8.5% NC, Uganda <0.1% NC

------------------------------

Next weekend is Kenya vs Uganda. With home advantage, Kenya are favoured 100% on current rankings (but the model allows for some error so gives them 95.5%).
Uganda still have 3 games to go against lower-ranked Tunisia, Morocco and Zimbabwe - and Uganda have home advantage in every single one.

A win would suddenly make Uganda the 76% favourite to qualify as Africa 2, and Kenya's RWC qualification hopes would drop to 2.0%.
(it would substantially help Namibia, Canada, Hong Kong and Germany's qualification chances though, as Uganda would still only be at 1.2%)

This game Kenya can't afford to lose.

 

[Brigantine]

Update:
Cook Islands (55) are eliminated, Hong Kong (21) qualify for the Repechage Tournament, Uganda/Zimbabwe/Morocco are out of contention for Africa 1.
Uganda miss their big chance. Namibia and Kenya are now massive favourites - There is now only a 2.2% chance of an upset in African qualifying.

Germany vs Samoa is this weekend, (Germany need to make up a 51 point deficit, which they only achieve once out of all the 10,000 simulations), African qualifying now takes a break until August 4, (7 games remaining), and that is all the qualifying left until the Repechage Tournament in November.

• 17 - 17 countries had guaranteed spaces in the final 23:
  • 12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-8, 10-13)
    
  • 15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 15, 9, 14)
    
  • 16 - Samoa (17) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Germany, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament
  • 17 - Canada (22) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament
• 21 - 4 countries have earned* spaces in the final 23:
  • 18 - Uruguay (18) earned the Final 23 spot for the Americas, and qualified directly as Americas 2
  • 19 - Russia (19) qualified directly as Europe 1
  • 20 - Germany (29) earned* the Europe 2 spot, and can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa, or the Repechage Tournament
  • 21 - Hong Kong (21) earned the Asia 1/Oceania 4 Play-Off Winner spot, and will go to the Repechage Tournament
• 27 - 6 African countries are still competing for the last 2 spaces in the Final 23:
  • 23 - 3 countries from Africa are still able to qualify directly as Africa 1, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as a Plan B. (as Africa 2).
    • Namibia (23), Kenya (28), and Tunisia (40)
  • 27 - Uganda (37), Zimbabwe (46), and Morocco (42) are only able to qualify via the Repechage Tournament. (as Africa 2)

• 63 countries eliminated - Including Romania (16), Spain (20) and Portugal (24).

* - Well... I'm not sure "earned" is exactly the right word in the case of Russia and Germany

Projected Probabilities:

Pool B as Africa 1: Namibia 82% +1, Kenya 18% -1, Uganda 0% -<0.1
Participating in the Repechage Tournament as Africa 2: Kenya 80% +3, Namibia 18% -1, Tunisia 1.6% +0.6, Uganda 0.5% -3.0, Zimbabwe 0% -<0.1
Eliminated in the Gold Cup: Namibia 0%, Kenya 2.2%, Tunisia 98.4%, Uganda 99.5%, Zimbabwe 100%, Morocco 100%

Pool B as Repechage Winner: Hong Kong 44% +1, Canada 37% NC, Germany 8.0% -0.5, Kenya 8.0% +0.5, Namibia 3.5% -0.5
Repechage Runner-Up: Canada 32% NC, Hong Kong 30% NC, Germany 17% NC, Kenya 16% +1, Namibia 5.0% NC, Tunisia <0.1%, Uganda 0%

to any Pool (3): Samoa 100%, Namibia 85% NC, Hong Kong 44% +1, Canada 37% NC, Kenya 26% NC, Germany 8.0% -0.5, Uganda 0% -<0.1

 

[bakakumon]

The Repechage tournament will be held at Marseille in the coming November.
Thought it would be nice to be situated closer to Japan as the Asian host.
Still looking forward to it.

 

[David Mitchell]

Probably the middle weekend attendance for me in Marseille. Got England v NZ the first weekend and flights seem stupid prices for the 3rd weekend looking quickly.

 

[Welshdragon2000]

Germany go into the repechage then after losing to Samoa over two legs. Germany were excellent today and the 42-28 score line doesn't reflect the game. They were 28-21 up with 15 minutes left. This repechage is wide open and dare I say it Germany have a chance if they perform like they did today

 

[Brigantine]

Samoa won 0.04 RP off Germany in that game - enough to put them above Romania again. If the score was any higher it would have been 0.06... not that it really makes any difference.

Pool A is officially Japan, Ireland, Scotland, Russia and Samoa.

The only surprises in RWC qualifying so far have been Uruguay beating Canada, and the ineligible player scandals which have seen Tahiti, Romania, and Spain eliminated. (and you can argue Germany beating Portugal was a surprise too)

 

[Brigantine]

African qualifying starts again this weekend.

If Zimbabwe don't beat Namibia, they'll be the first Gold Cup team to be eliminated.

 

[Brigantine]

And then this weekend just gone, Kenya destroys Tunisia and establishes an insurmountable lead. Morocco, Tunisia and Uganda all join Zimbabwe in elimination, and at last we have our final 23.

This coming weekend is Namibia vs Kenya in the last round of continental qualifying, which will decide who qualifies directly to Pool B and who goes to the Repechage Tournament.

 

[Brigantine]

The Repechage Tournament starts in 4 weeks. According to Wikipedia, the teams are all coming to Europe early and have preparation games lined up:

Germany - vs Portugal (Rugby Europe Trophy) in Lisbon on Oct 27
Hong Kong - vs Dragons (Pro 14) on Oct 29 and then Crawshays RFC (whoever they are) on Nov 2
Kenya - vs Romania A in Bucharest on Nov 3
Canada - vs Coventry (RFU Championship) on Nov 5

Tournament starts Nov 11 in Marseilles

 

[Welshdragon2000]

Little something which hasn't been posted on this forum at all: Namibia may withdraw from the World Cup due to serious problems within the union. Personally I can't see them pulling out but if they did then Kenya would go to the World Cup as Africa 1 and Uganda would go to the repechage I guess

 

[Welshdragon2000]

Crawshays RFC (whoever they are)

I think they're a compilation of Welsh premiership players. They're playing down at the the Gnoll which is only a couple of minutes away from my house so I may well go down and watch that one.