I'm really looking forward to this match - probably more than I have any non-AB's test this year. There have been some high scoring South Africa - Australia tests in South Africa in recent seasons, so hopefully this is another one.
Up front South Africa have an obvious edge - as long as they play like they did against the AB's rather than they did the week before against Australia! South Africa should have a reasonable edge in the scrums, and I think the lineout will be a particularly interesting battle. Bekker needs a massive game to justify his re-inclusion, and putting pressure on Sharpe at lineout time will be a key for him. It is good to see Etzebeth back (hopefully he doesn't head-butt anyone this week...), as I think his ability to create go-forward ball from nothing is important to the Boks (something B du Plessis used to provide for them). Douglas will face another big test this week - debuting against a fired up Argentina was a big challenge (which he passed with flying colours), and it doesn't get any easier this week!
Last time the teams played Australia won the battle in the loose largely due to Michael Hooper, though I think it will be a lot tighter this week. Though Louw may not be in Hooper class at the breakdown (few players are) he is a genuine openside flanker, which is exactly what South Africa need. Samo has been pretty good for Australia this season, and Dennis is a reliable player, but Australia do really lack a powerful ball runner in their loose-trio - indeed Hooper has been their best ball running loosie this season (at 1.82m and 97kgs...). Australia will be relying a lot on Alexander and Polota-Nau again to create go-forward ball, which they really need if they are going to create space for their backs. I still feel that Coetzee should be starting over Alberts, but Alberts has in general been pretty good this season, while Vermeulen has looked very comfortable at test level thus far.
I think South Africa have an advantage in the halves - as long as Pienaar plays a more instinctive game this week. When he plays a more controlled game he seems to slow down any quick ball South Africa get - this is fine if your game-plan is "kick the leather off the ball", but if you want to use your backline you have to give them the ball before the oppositions defense gets set! Phipps is solid, but that's about the best you can say about him. The battle between Goosen and Beale will be a a highlight for me. Goosen looks a phenomenal talent - hopefully he is allowed to express himself rather than being constrained by a conservative gameplan. Beale has been pretty average this season, but played some great rugby for the Rebels when he was shifted to the 10 jersey. He could be a real threat to the Boks if he takes on the line, especially if he has hard running players like McCabe and Ioane running off his shoulder.
The midfield is one area where I think Australia has an edge. McCabe/Ashley-Cooper may not be the most creative midfield in the game, but they are very strong on defense, and both are strong runners with ball in hand. de Villiers gets a chance in his preferred position, and it will be interesting to see how Taute goes at 13 - he looks talented, but I felt he played his best rugby for the Lions at 15. Some good match-ups out wide too. Hopefully both teams get the ball out to their wings so we get the chance to see Hougaard, Habana, Shipperly, and Ioane in full flight!
Despite the fact Australia have won the last 5 in a row against South Africa, I think South Africa enter this match as big favourites. They have the edge in almost every area, have a goal-kicker who can kick anything from within 60m of Australia's tryline, and have the home advantage. If they don't win this match I'm sure there will be plenty of hard questioned asked! I'm picking South Africa by 10-15, in what should be a pretty high scoring game (a scoreline along the lines of 45-32 would not surprised me).
