Predictions for Super 15 2013

[SomeOke]

Thanx for all the confidence you guys have in the Canes!

Ick.


Anyway, there is no doubt SA will have the easier conference (In comparison to NZ), and I predict a relative weakening of the Bulls, which should make it a lot easier for the Stormers and Sharks, especially considering the Stormers have an even better looking squad than last year (and despite our failings in the play-offs we ... er they were still top of the log and only lost 3 games) and so do the Sharks having plugged the few ****les they had in their squad (assuming selections are good). The Cheetahs are a nuggety side, but I doubt they will prove much trouble for the Stormers and Sharks in South Africa and the Kings will be easy wins of course.

I doubt Aus will improve that much in terms of performance against the other conferences and will be lucky to sneak 2 teams into the top 6 (although it's still quite possible).

NZ will once again suffer from having the strongest conference in terms of having at least four competitive teams and I would predict the Highlanders and Saders topping that conference with the Chiefs and Hurricanes competing for the third spot.

With that in mind:

SA:
Stormers
Sharks
Bulls
Cheetahs
Kings

Aus:
Brumbies
Reds
Tahs
Rebels
Force

NZ
Highlanders
Crusaders
Chiefs
Hurricanes
Blues

Overall:
1. Stormers
2. Highlanders
3. Brumbies
4. Sharks
5. Crusaders
6. Chiefs
7. Reds
8. Hurricanes
9. Bulls
10. Warratahs
11. Cheetahs
11-15: Who cares

- Sharks/Stormers could easily swap positions it's really close.
- Crusaders/Highlanders will be the same.

As for all the Kings bashing going on: The Force and Lions only pulled off 3 wins a piece last tournament, it's not about the Kings being a shite team at the moment (which they are admittedly) it's more about regional fairness. If we went by the Provinces that nursed all the talent in the country the Sharks wouldn't even be in SR in all likelihood which I have no problem with but it basically comes down to a mix between "who was there first" and "who has the most money" the Eastern Cape is responsible for a hell of a lot of the Countries talent but the players have had no incentive to stay in the province in the past because we lack a Super Rugby franchise, perhaps having a SR team will induce our talent to stick around for a little longer, perhaps not, but the point is we at least deserve a chance, is anyone really going to miss the Lions that much? They were pretty much a free win anyway (much like the force and rebels are too most teams...).

 

[Icemn]

Can someone tell the S15 season the hurry the f*** up... I cant wait anymore!!!!

 

[Gena_ZA]

Remarkable slow start to the year regarding rugby talk...

 

[nickdnz]

Ohh yah. I just want to get into week one now. I'm rested and ready - and growing impatient. Still another month and a bit away...

 

[TRF_heineken]

Ohh yah. I just want to get into week one now. I'm rested and ready - and growing impatient. Still another month and a bit away...

yeah this part of the year is pure agony!

luckily for me, the Rugby starts on the 2nd of February with the Bulls vs Cheetahs warm-up game in my hometown. a bunch of my friends are playing a warm-up match themselves beforehand, so I have free tickets to the event.

I'm just glad that the newspapers are again having some rugby inserts again. even if it's just small articles and about some players wanting to impress this year.

 

[SomeOke]

I think everyone has talked pre-season to death, not only here but with our mates over a beer, we need a game or two to get us salivating again .

 

[Draggs]

That and my schedule blows huge chunks this year.
I'll Shark it up soon, don't you worry!

 

[Larksea]

NZ franchise is hard to pick, 5 strong teams.

I cant see the chiefs topping the NZ conference without SBW, as I've said in the past they need 2-3 guys to lift their game considerably to make up for what they lost with the departure of SBW. There are a lot of reasons the chiefs had a great season but SBW was the top of that list.

Crusaders will do better without McCaw as Todd is a bloody good 7 and Read will provide fantastic leadership.

2013 will see the strongest highlanders squad in my memory and they will be expected to make top two in NZ conference.

Even though the hurricanes did not make the playoffs this year in my opinion they finished the regular season as the strongest (form at the time) team in super rugby. If they can carry on that momentum the sky is the limit.

And I don't think the blues will come last with a Graham Henry Coached Defense.

 

[Zed]

I can't really see any of the Australian franchises doing much. Perhaps the Reds or Brumbies are our best shot, but the other teams are so lacking in depth it's not funny. If the Force gets 3 or 4 injuries to key players, we'll be calling up local club players again. Compare that to teams like the Crusaders, who have guys on the bench with international experience.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

My predictions:
1 Sharks
2 Reds
3 Crusaders
4 Chiefs
5 Stormers
6 Waratahs
7 Highlanders
8 Hurricanes
9 Bulls
10 Brumbies
11 Blues
12 Cheetahs
13 Rebels
14 Force
15 Kings

 

[LittleGuy]

I'm going to go by conference since it's easier to do then checking the whole schedule and figuring out cross conference match up's etc.

South Africa

1. Sharks (Best forward pack but could fall into 2nd)
2. Stormers (Just behind Sharks, had injuries last year and still played fairly well)
3. Bulls (Might get into the playoffs if they play well, might finish below Cheetahs if it's a disaster)
4. Cheetahs (Could cause problems for the other SA teams and win a pile of cross conference games, probably too weak for playoffs)
5. Kings (Might be whitewashed, if lucky might beat the Force in their first game or the Rebels later on)

Australia

1. Reds (Still a tad bit better than the Brumbies but I don't think will be a ***le threat)
2. Brumbies (Improving steadily record will be inflated due to weak Oz conference and could make playoffs)
3. Waratahs (Should compete in almost every game, probably won't make playoffs)
4. Rebels (Have improved more than the Force and should avoid the bottom of all the tables this year)
5. Force (Serious lack of depth, probably won't finish dead last in Super Rugby thanks to the Kings)

New Zealand

1. Crusaders (A ***le contendor, such a tough conference though)
2. Chiefs (Always tough to repeat still have a very solid team)
3. Highlanders (I might be underating them have seen others that have them in top two, could very well be a playoff side, and could give other conferences fits)
4. Hurricanes (Decent team, will be a threat and could play spolier in their conference)
5. Blues (Should be a massive improvement over last seasons disaster, a long way to build back up in this conference but could win a pile of cross coference games)

 

[TRF_heineken]

@Little Guy, I think your predictions are almost the same as mine. even though I would like my Bulls team to be in a stronger position. For them it's about picking up where they left off last year and improving on their mistakes. Mostly Defense. They were one of the top teams with tries scored, but also gave away a lot of tries with poor defending.

It will be interesting to see how they go with a lot of new faces in the Players and Management Dept. Victor Matfield is their new attack and forwards coach, Derick Hougaard will be assisting Vlok Cilliers in the Kicking dept, and this could just be a breath of fresh air for the Bulls to expand their play a bit and surprize the other teams.

 

[Beeghaych]

Interesting season

Pretty accurate

As usual teams with fewer injuries and more depth will be there at the end.


South Africa

1. Sharks (Depth in a lot of key positions/ Jannie not my favourite TH but he does ok/ always rated vd merve so good addition at lock/ return of Steyn is a plus/ and then there's Keagan the pocket sized tank, oh and Kanko)
2. Stormers (Biggest weakness is that front row but with Pat their hopefully things will change/ Injuries last year gave a number of players the change to gain experience)
3. Bulls (Anything is possible/ Greyling is one of my favourite LH despite the temper, you always need a hothead on the team, just more control, Hougie at 9 needs to get some confidence back and believe in himself)
4. Cheetahs (Most exiting team/ even got me a cheetahs shirt/ no depth, take out Oosthuizen, Brussouw, Goosen, Strauss and you have big issues)
5. Kings (I wish them well)

Australia

1. Reds (Solid unit with great manager/ If Cooper and Genia stay fit and work their magic anything is possible, but I hope they miss Higginbotham)
2. Brumbies (Took a number of teams by surprise in 2012 may struggle this year if they have a number of injuries)
3. Waratahs (Have potential, may finish second in Oz)
4. Rebels (Better and better)
5. Force (No Sharpe, no Pocock/ not easy to replace)

New Zealand

1. Crusaders (If they can keep Carter injury free)
2. Hurricanes (Good team/ Learned alot last year, mus not get over confident and can then repeat more of last year)
3. Chiefs (No Taumololo/ They need to play at 100% to finish 2nd lol)
4. Highlanders (Excellent team on paper/ Can they gel in time? Did they get Ma'a, he is one of my fav centres but seems to coz more harm where ever he goes/ Thomson for me is a big loss)
5. Blues (Wish them well/ Hope they do better but not sure they can pull a hurricane)

At the end the Sharks and Crusaders will probably be in the final (provided they get past the Reds and Stormers), but then I have been wrong every year​

 

[nickdnz]

New Zealand Conference
1. Chiefs - People hark on about SBW - which no doubt he was good, but I think they still have the players and importantly the coaching staff to excell without him. I'd imagine Andrew Horrell will fill in the inside centre position (as I'm not sold on Ngatai, Akhi has no experience and I think they'd want to keep Robinson at fullback) and I think he's capable of doing a good job.
2. Hurricanes - More opptimistic than I have been in a long time for the Canes. Don't want to get too far ahead of myself - but the make up of the team is very exciting. Only real issue is depth in some of the important positions like halfback and 1st 5/8th. If they have a injury free season and continue of last seasons form they should make the playoffs.
3. Crusaders - Everyones talking up the Crusaders, and I can't seem to work out why. Todd Blackadder hasn't delivered in his time in charge - hasn't been since Deans left that they've won the thing. McCaw will be out for most of the competition (with adimittedly Todd being a fine replacement), Carter is more and more injury prone (as much as I love him) so I doubt he'll be fit all season. The only changes from last season are pretty much negatives - minus picking up too good young loose forwards.
4. Highlanders - On paper they look good, but I've always been concerned that they seem to lack direction. Sopoaga is a great runner and not the most creative while Slade is probably a better fullback and will be injured probably during the pre season. Great squad on paper - but I don't predict great things for this team this season.
5. Blues - I'm a pessimist and I think they're ganna crash and burn for another season. People think they can be like the Canes were last season, and it's possible, but every choice Sir J.K has made so far I've been perplexed with. Lose Anscombe, lose Daniel Braid, Ali Williams as captain. People seem to think "I haven't heard of this guy before, he must be exciting and good"...no. There are some players who are new and exciting prospects sure, but most of them I'm thinking will be well out of their depth. Most of all, Noakes and Kerr I can't see running the team amazingly. Noakes is a journeyman with no vision and Kerr is debuting in Super Rugby.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

The reason people talk up the Crusaders is that they perform every year...They've made the playoffs for the last how many years? They may not have won it, but that doesn't stop them from being one of the best teams in the competition.

Man for man v the Hurricanes:

May < Crockett
Coles > Flynn (more equal, but I'm being favourable to the Canes)
Franks < Franks
Broadhurst < Romano
Eaton < Whitelock
Shields = Whitelock
Lowe < McCaw/Todd
Vito < Read
Perenara = Ellis
Barrett < Carter
Savea > Guildford
Bateman > Taylor
Smith > Fruean
Jane > McNicholl
Taylor < Dagg

The Canes may have a slight advantage in the backs, but the Crusaders have far better forwards - and considerably better reserves.

I'm not saying the Canes won't finish higher than the Crusaders, but it'd be madness to say they have a greater chance of finishing higher.

 

[nickdnz]

The reason people talk up the Crusaders is that they perform every year...They've made the playoffs for the last how many years? They may not have won it, but that doesn't stop them from being one of the best teams in the competition.

Man for man v the Hurricanes:

May < Crockett
Coles > Flynn (more equal, but I'm being favourable to the Canes)
Franks < Franks
Broadhurst < Romano
Eaton < Whitelock
Shields = Whitelock
Lowe < McCaw/Todd
Vito < Read
Perenara = Ellis
Barrett < Carter
Savea > Guildford
Bateman > Taylor
Smith > Fruean
Jane > McNicholl
Taylor < Dagg

The Canes may have a slight advantage in the backs, but the Crusaders have far better forwards - and considerably better reserves.

I'm not saying the Canes won't finish higher than the Crusaders, but it'd be madness to say they have a greater chance of finishing higher.

I don't agree with all your assessments in either case - I'd take Bateman over Taylor and Crotty, Shields over George Whitelock and Peranara well over Ellis. I'm well aware of the class players the Crusaders have - but the last thing they won was in 2008 with Robbie Deans in charge. Blackadder hasn't been able to win the thing with better sqauds than this one. Yes they are consistently in the play offs - but they consistently lose the play offs. My prediction is that the Hurricanes will perform better - based off their performances towards the latter half of the competition. What I don't understand is why they are rated above the Chiefs - who won last year and had awesome form. SBW isn't so influential that they won't still be the favourites without him.

 

[Larksea]

Perenara >>>>> Ellis

canes forwards are a bit underrated, I personally think May has overtaken Crockett, Eaton has been very good and unlucky not to have received an All Black Recall - although Romano's callup ended up being the right choice. I'm not sure about Lowe, he hasn't been that great for a year or so. Lam is better, bloody good player but he throws himself at the game so hard you can't play him 80min every week and he will have injury breaks - he needs more rest than your average player, some players just throw themselves into the game more than others and though it makes them great they do end up with more injuries, Lam is one of them.

It's true the crusaders main problem is Carter and McCaw not having full impact for the crusaders these days, late starts and injury breaks during the season but with Tom Taylor and Matt Todd they have more than able replacelemts - infact these two are still some of the best in their position. Still a lot of class in the team and if Dagg, Fruen, Crotty and Todd fire then they should still be ***le contenders. Overall though while I think the Canes, Blues and Highlanders will definitely be stronger in 2013 I think the Crusaders will basically be the same and the Chiefs will be a bit weaker. It's been well documented that the crusaders had issues with their attacking game last year and they now have a new coaching lineup in order to resolve that, they have also lost their triumvirate of props that they use and rotate so well. Chiefs will mainly be missing this one guy who was the top meter running and offloading midfielder in the competition last year, they will struggle without his 1000+ running meters and 40 off offloads combined with his impeccable work ethic on defense. No one man can replace that, they need 2-3 guys to life their game ~20% to make up for it.

 

[Reinheimer]

If there is one thing that is constant when it comes to the Super Rugby then it's that the Crusaders will once again be the favourites to take this compitition out. Their squad depth would leave most test nations envious. Richie McCaw being out will not pose too much of a problem as they have the impresive Matt Todd waiting on the bench. Cover for him won't be a problem either as former Under 20 World Champion Captain Luke Whitelock will be waiting. An international level tight five. World class 8-9-10 combination. Crotty has proven to be a quality number 12 and Whitelock and Fruen have both been adequate at this level. Dagg at fullback... the only thing that is a talking point will be the wingers. The loss of Maitland and Guildford will impact the team. In saying that however, Whitelock is there to cover if needed. Also Marshall showed some amazing potential during the 2011 comp so maybe a new home for him will be in the Crusaders 11 or 14 jersey? What's certain about this team is that they have the talent to make it all the way and injuries won't harm them as much as other teams.

At the end of the day though, is this level of talent more important than X factor? For the past two seasons X factor players and combinations have led to ***les. Genia and Coopers combination during 2011 drove that team forward with confidence. The Chiefs last year were on fire and had those X factor players in Sona, Cruden and Williams which again lead to confidence and a ***le. Like the Reds, the whole team took a major step up. I believe this is a key factor to winning the comp. Whoever has the razzle dazzle will win the ***le. Just a question of a who will have it. Guess we'll find out soon. It's way too early to make any predictions. Although I will make this. The Cheetahs, Kings, Force, Rebels, Warratahs, Highlanders and Blues will not win this compitition.

 

[Rhyer]

I'm surprised no one is talking up the Tahs. They look dangerous on paper if injury free. Imagine this;

1. Benn Robinson
2. Polota-Nau
3. Sekope Kepu
4. Kane Douglas
5. Sitaleki Timani
6. Dave Dennis
7. Michael Hooper
8. Wycliff Palu
9. McKibben
10. Berrick Barnes
11. Drew Mitchell
12. Tom Carter
13. Rob Horne
14. Adam Ashley-Cooper
15. Israel Folau

I think that's a dangerous looking team. Some weakness in centre and halfback but apart from that you've got some real talent mixed with experience and stability. It's an all Wallaby forward pack I think?

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I'm surprised no one is talking up the Tahs. They look dangerous on paper if injury free. Imagine this;

1. Benn Robinson
2. Polota-Nau
3. Sekope Kepu
4. Kane Douglas
5. Sitaleki Timani
6. Dave Dennis
7. Michael Hooper
8. Wycliff Palu
9. McKibben
10. Berrick Barnes
11. Drew Mitchell
12. Tom Carter
13. Rob Horne
14. Adam Ashley-Cooper
15. Israel Folau

I think that's a dangerous looking team. Some weakness in centre and halfback but apart from that you've got some real talent mixed with experience and stability. It's an all Wallaby forward pack I think?

That's not saying much. Not trying to diss the Aussies but they usually don't win because of their packs, they usually despite their pack.

The Waratahs have never been a bad team. They've just never been better than a 4rth place IMO and the extended tournament format will show up any team without depth in all positions. I don't think this team is any better than the one that still had Luke Burgess, Beale and an on fire Drew Mitchell in it and that one couldn't make the cut.