Predictions for Super 15 2013

[Gena_ZA]

Just cause I (and surely some of you) have withdrawal symptoms let's speculate about things next year in the Super 15
Positions per country and overall if you dare, let us know why you think the way you do

SA
1- Stormers - Settled side, know how not to lose, new personal will encourage a bit more attacking flair
2- Sharks - same as last year, very well balanced, might push the Stormers very hard
3- Bulls - will always be there or there about, strong up front but relative young backline with big potential
4 -Cheetahs - opposite from the Bulls, weaker up front but explosive at the back, can't find any reason to believe their defence will improve an injuries derail them again, same old same old
5 -Kings - will get hammered, quality of the opponents will crush them in their first year and they will do worse than the Cats


NZ
1 -Hurricanes - the year for them to put structure to their explosiveness and outplay most teams
2 -Crusaders - class stays class - Seeing them resting key players at times and expecting the unexpected upsets against them, still good enough to make the top two
3 -Highlanders - huge potential but as always will find a reason to come up just short of the playoffs
4 -Chiefs - will have ***le blues this year and when things don't go well in the beginning they will realise how much SBW meant and will take a while to regroup
5 -Blues - strange off season signings, will get better under Kirwan but will take a season or two to settle


AUS
1 -Brumbies - Jake White did a lot in his first year, expect them to rattle a few big names, toss up between them and Reds to take this conferense
2 -Reds - They will fire and stall again, almost making it but not quite but when firing they will be devastating, doubt it will last all season but it could
3 -Waratahs - New coach, new players have potential, will settle this year and be better in 2014
4 -Rebels - now more established but still see them near the bottom of the overall log
5 -Force - simply do not they quality players of the other sides, new coach


Overall semi-finalists
Hurricanes
Stormers
Brumbies
Sharks

Notes and the what if's
SA - If the Cheetahs remain relatively injury free they will cause the usual few upsets, maybe more than in previous years
NZ - Highlanders could go all the way - they have the player base and massive x-factor, if they believe in themselves they can even win the competition
NZ - Waratahs - Exiting new signings, new era, who knows

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I see it as a 9 horse race with only 6 play-off places and anything can happen from there on out.

This is how I rate them (or at least their chances to make the play-offs) pre-season even if I only rate the Reds, Brumbies and Bulls higher than some of the NZ sides because of easier conferences; and the Kings have made the SA conference easier for now;

1 Stormers
2 Sharks
3 Highlanders
4 Hurricanes
5 Reds
6 Crusaders
7 Brumbies
8 Bulls
9 Chiefs


As for why I rate these teams;

I doubt anyone would argue any of the other teams would come into contention.

I place the Stormers and Sharks on top as I think they are both 100% garaunteed a place as they are two behemoths and should take 6 wins from the other teams in the conference and one off each other at home. They have both improved much from last year and should fare well against all commers IMO. Bulls could do enough to get in if they get some overseas scalps in addition to max points against the Cheetahs and Kings.

The NZ sides have a much tougher draw and will take points off each other though all four are great teams. I am backing the Highlanders and Hurricanes tot op the conference even if the Crusaders and Chiefs have had the most success recently. i feel the Chiefs will miss SBW and Taumololo and I doubt Cruden will be as effective without SBW. Crusaders have lost more than they gained IMO. As for the other two I think they'll be the hungrier teams and both have gained world class players n places where they had weaknesses. Depth might hamper them but I'm going for improved performances by both these teams.

Reds and Brumbies have an easy conference but I expect only 1 to come through as the 'Tahs and Rebels usually spoil a few points for these teams and I don't think they'll travel well or necesarily win their home games against the bigger SA and NZ sides. I see the Reds as simply having more class than the Brumbies and McKenzie is just as astute a coach as JW.

 

[Helmy]

Hurricanes will either suffer badly from second season syndrome or win the comp, imho.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

http://www.lassen.co.nz/s14tab.php

Scroll down to 'Team Ranking Points' for something similar to the IRB rankings for SR. Interesting.

 

[Gena_ZA]

I prefer the one done one the same formula that the IRB uses to do test rankings - SmarkCookie posted it once somewhere

@ Helmy - what 2nd season syndrome for the Hurricanes are you referring to - bowled me over...

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I prefer the one done one the same formula that the IRB uses to do test rankings - SmarkCookie posted it once somewhere

@ Helmy - what 2nd season syndrome for the Hurricanes are you referring to - bowled me over...

Remember it'll be only the 2nd season for many of their young players. They certainly didn't perform like newbies so one tends to forget just how inexperienced that side was.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I'm really excited for the Stormers this year. The only injury we have pre-season this time round is Schalk Burger (okay so it's a big one) but we have the depth in the loose forwards and leadership to cover and he is expected back early on. The team is settled and the youngsters have had a year in SR and a CC campaign that wass priceless experience. Add to that the team's new found willingness to attack (still a defensive beast though) that saw us take a CC ***le for the first in years and the fact that we've shored up in positions we were vulnerable in by radiding the Lion's best players... Allow me to endulge myself..

1 Steven Kitshoff
2 Tiaan Liebenberg
3 Pat Cilliers
4 Eben Etzebeth
5 Andries Bekker
6 Deon Fourie
7 Siya Kolisi
8 Duane Vermeulen
9 Nic Groom
10 Elton Jantjies
11 Bryan Habana
12 Jean de Villiers (c)
13 Juan de Jongh
14 Gio Aplon
15 Jaco Taute

16 Deon Carstens
17 Scarra Ntubeni
18 Rynhardt Elstadt
19 Schalk Burger
20 Dewald Duvenhage
21 Peter Grant
22 Joe Pietersen

Brok Harris
Frans Malherbe
De Kock Steenkamp
Don Armand
Nizaam Carr
Louis Schreuder
Gary van Aswegen
Damian de Allende
Gerhard van den Heever

 

[Gena_ZA]

Nice to see your change of heart - last year you said no better than 6th and were all negative about their prospects - good on you this time -thumbs up

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Nice to see your change of heart - last year you said no better than 6th and were all negative about their prospects - good on you this time -thumbs up

Well, I think the CC win showed to me that they can get up when it really matters against a much favored Sharks team to boot. Hope they can do it again as I am sure this group of players will put themselves in a similarly good position as they have the last three years.

 

[nickdnz]

It's amazing to hear people talk up the Hurricanes. This time last season and they were doomed forever.

As it is - I'm both cautiously optimistic about making the playoffs, while quite pessimistic regarding their chances of winning. For one: The Hurricanes never win Super Rugby. We've made it to the playoffs 6 times including the 2006 final - never won. We've had some of the best players in the world - Jonah Lomu, Tana Umaga, Christian Cullen and Jerry Collins etc, never won. In 2006 we came close - and the fog was so dense you could not see what was happening on the field never mind playing an expansive game. God does not want the Hurricanes to win.

As it is - I am pretty happy with the bulk of the team. We don't have any huge weakness that we usually have - other than perhaps squad depth. Our scrum should be good. Our lineouts should be decent. Our looseforwards should be good. Our halfback pearing is one of the best in the competition. Our centres are creative, skillful and safe and our three is deadily. It will be interesting to see how they perform with higher expectations on them.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

I prefer the one done one the same formula that the IRB uses to do test rankings - SmarkCookie posted it once somewhere

@ Helmy - what 2nd season syndrome for the Hurricanes are you referring to - bowled me over...

That is the one you are referring to...

 

[Larksea]

the hurricanes I think have the most tallented and exciting 9-10 combination in the competition, if they stay fit the sky is the limit. pre-season this year I knew the hurricanes would do well I just did not want them to. But the way they played this season surely they are the team everyone wants to watch.

For the chiefs I can see 2nd season blues for Renee without SBW clocking up 100+ running meters a week, sucking in defenders and offloading at will. But they will still be a quality side. As I keep saying, to make up for SBW the chiefs need 3-4 players to lift their game, not just the guy who replaces him. In particular I think they need the wingers to make more of an impact in midfield as first/2nd receiver.

Crusaders, Chiefs, Canes and Landers will all be strong and capable of making the playoffs, again it will hurt the NZ conference overall having at least 4 strong sides and fierce competition for points but will surely make for great watching.

The Blues will start the season with maybe the weakest squad on paper, but they sill have some big names and guys who can mae a massive impact at this level, Luatua and Piutau for example. I also really liked the look of Gibson-Park, I think he will be really good, better than Weepu >.<, if Gibson-Park can fire along with others in the squad they could very well give the NZ wooden spoon away and that would be a success.

The blues trump card I think is Uncle Ted, with him involved I instantly expect the team to perform better than they are on paper, they will be better on defense, be more composed, have better core skills and be harder to take on at eden park than they were under Lam. With Ted's influence I also expect Weepu to show up fit and ready come game one. it would be a PR nightmare for the blues if weepu is a passenger again in 2013.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

the hurricanes I think have the most tallented and exciting 9-10 combination in the competition, if they stay fit the sky is the limit.

Really?

TKB and Cruden?
Genia and Cooper?
Ellis and Carter?

 

[Larksea]

Really?

TKB and Cruden?
Genia and Cooper?
Ellis and Carter?

I think so yes,

I rate TJP well over TKB (too much 50/50 about his game at times, much like quade cooper...) and Elis and in terms of talent and raw potential even above Aaron Smith. TJP I think has a raw physical edge that is a level above those guys. And Barrett in a similar fassion, only a matter of time Till he surpasses Cruden and IMO the most likely of the current bunch to eventually take over from carter in the overall pecking order. More than two year age gap between barrett and Cruden, barrett I think is clearly ahead of where Cruden was at the same age, where will Barrett be in two years time? Genia is a true great and a great decision maker but in terms of tallent and x-factor I would rather sit down and watch 20 year old TJ.

I did not say "best 9-10" but for me they are "the most talented and exciting 9-10 combination"

would anyone bet against them playing as the All Black 9-10 some day?

 

[donmcdazzle]

I think so yes,

I rate TJP well over TKB (too much 50/50 about his game at times, much like quade cooper...) and Elis and in terms of talent and raw potential even above Aaron Smith. TJP I think has a raw physical edge that is a level above those guys. And Barrett in a similar fassion, only a matter of time Till he surpasses Cruden and IMO the most likely of the current bunch to eventually take over from carter in the overall pecking order. More than two year age gap between barrett and Cruden, barrett I think is clearly ahead of where Cruden was at the same age, where will Barrett be in two years time? Genia is a true great and a great decision maker but in terms of tallent and x-factor I would rather sit down and watch 20 year old TJ.

I did not say "best 9-10" but for me they are "the most talented and exciting 9-10 combination"

would anyone bet against them playing as the All Black 9-10 some day?

Are you being serious? Have you not seen some of the ridiculous tries Genia scores? TJ hasn't proven anything other than exciting potential, until he scores some 50m tries i'll leave Genia with the most exciting halfback crown for now.

 

[Larksea]

Are you being serious? Have you not seen some of the ridiculous tries Genia scores? TJ hasn't proven anything other than exciting potential, until he scores some 50m tries i'll leave Genia with the most exciting halfback crown for now.

emphasis on that part, i have my opinion and all it means is that I would rather sit down and watch TJP play than Genia, never said he was better than Genia. The scary thing is he was still young enough to play under 20's this year.

honest question? Which team was the most exciting to watch in terms of attack this year? in my opinion - the hurricanes, they scored 58 tries (most by a considerable margin - Reds - 40), more than anyone else. And their 9-10 weren't passengers to that they were right at the sharp end.

 

[Larksea]

Are you being serious? Have you not seen some of the ridiculous tries Genia scores? TJ hasn't proven anything other than exciting potential, until he scores some 50m tries i'll leave Genia with the most exciting halfback crown for now.

another interesting stat, TJP was the highest individual try scoring halfback in super rugby this year. Am I still crazy?

 

[nickdnz]

I'd agree that TJ Peranara was the most exciting halfback this year. Was the best halfback in SR in my opinion - showed some amazing skills.

 

[donmcdazzle]

another interesting stat, TJP was the highest individual try scoring halfback in super rugby this year. Am I still crazy?

Scoring tries does not equal an exciting player. See Ralph, Caleb.

Perenara is exciting sure, you said in terms of talent and x-factor you'd rather him than Genia which I find hard to justify when Genia has proven to be one of the most talented halfbacks in the world for the last few years, and has plenty of x-factor. Will Perenara get to that point? Who knows, all signs point to him being a great player but it is hard at this point to prefer him over Genia, (at this point).

 

[Larksea]

hey! you were the one who pulled try scoring into the argument!

"I'd agree that TJ Peranara was the most exciting halfback this year. Was the best halfback in SR in my opinion - showed some amazing skills."

I totally agree