NZ vs Wales - June 2016

[dullonien]

It won't be long until these tests are upon us.

From a Welsh perspective, I have no idea how we'll perform. We looked pretty poor for much of the 6 nations, with a malfunctioning breakdown, attack, and even defense against England. I don't know how encouraged I should be about the Italy game, or whether it was more a reflection on Italy than us.

NZ are in a big rebuilding phase which gives me some hope, but players always manage to step up to the mark when they need them to.

To start the first test, I'd love to see a team of:

01 Rob Evans
02 Ken Owens
03 Samson Lee
04 Luke Charteris
05 Alun-Wyn Jones
06 Ross Moriarty
07 Justin Tipuric
08 Taulupe Faletau

09 Rhys Webb
10 Dan Biggar
11 Leigh Halfpenny
12 Scott Williams
13 Jon Davies
14 George North
15 Liam Williams

16 Scott Baldwin
17 Gethin Jenkins
18 Tom Francis
19 Bradley Davies
20 Sam Warburton
21 Gareth Davies
22 Rhys Priestland
23 Jamie Roberts

I think that the backrow looks nicely balanced with Moriarty and Tipuric. Moriarty would give us another carrying option, and general aggressiveness, which would compliment Tipuric's flair and Faletau's all round game well. I also like the idea of switching Moriarty and Faletau at the base of the ruck depending on what play we want to execute. Warburton was far from his best in the 6 nations and is as injury prone as ever.

In the backline, I really want to see us playing a more open game, Scott Williams should help us do that, whilst having Halfpenny back will be a big boost imo. I don't hugely mind which of Halfpenny or Williams plays at fullback, I think both are capable attackers if allowed to be. One thing's for sure though, the return of Halfpenny will finally mean the end of playing Cuthbert, which can only be a good thing!

 

[AzaMatt]

i wouldnt be so sure on the end of playing cuthbert, i highly expect him to still be involved. he will at least be on the bench, which is shocking

 

[Bada-Bing!]

If June tests v Ireland in 2012 and v England in 2014 are any guide then one game will be close and that is the game Wales need to take their chances to win; most likely the first test when ABs will be most rusty and bedding in some new players. Otherwise 3 zip to the ABs I'm afraid.

 

[Thingimubob]

I really like the look of that backline! Keen to see Halfpenny come back as a winger, with L Williams' attacking flair coming in from 15.

Can see both switching during the game anyway, as Halfpenny's positioning is great in kick defense.

My heart says we have a chance because we'll be facing a new look NZ side without the big names of the past decade or so. However, my head brings me back to reality as this is still gonna be a very very strong NZ side, with most of the players stepping into the freshly opened spots having been given plenty of opportunity over the last couple of years.

Even so, this is still arguably our best chance in a very long time to get a win against NZ, and 3 test series can throw up plenty of surprises. A pretty poor Ireland side went out there in 2012 and got hammered in the 1st and 3rd test, but still almost managed to pull off a famous result in the 2nd. Definitely not impossible for us either way!

 

[dullonien]

i wouldnt be so sure on the end of playing cuthbert, i highly expect him to still be involved. he will at least be on the bench, which is shocking

I can't see Cuthbert still making the 23 when Scott Williams and Halfpenny are back fit. Gatland seems to like Cuthbert, but I'm fairly certain he prefers Halfpenny and Liam Williams. It's likely that Gatland will continue with Roberts and Davies in midfield, but he'd 100% have Scott Williams on the bench, meaning no room for Cuthbert there either.

 

[AlynDavies]

New Zealand will tear Wales to pieces, rebuilding phase or not we never fare well in New Zealand, we play England before we start, our players look knackered having gone from the World Cup, to the Six nations, then to the business end of the domestic season where clubs will flog the players, then onto this 5 game international series, with Gatland's "friendly" with Waikato thrown in as a favor to his town, placed in between the first and second test. I see New Zealand blowing Wales off the park in the third test to be honest. Expect a very weak Welsh team to tour, the players are already breaking down and we have no real depth. I think you only had to look at George North's face when he was asked about the tour after the Italy game to see he thinks it's crazy. Since the World Cup Wales seem to be picking whomever is fit because were out on our feet with injuries, Italy and Ireland are in the same position.

 

[0tago]

New Zealand will tear Wales to pieces, rebuilding phase or not we never fare well in New Zealand, we play England before we start, our players look knackered having gone from the World Cup, to the Six nations, then to the business end of the domestic season where clubs will flog the players, then onto this 5 game international series, with Gatland's "friendly" with Waikato thrown in as a favor to his town, placed in between the first and second test. I see New Zealand blowing Wales off the park in the third test to be honest. Expect a very weak Welsh team to tour, the players are already breaking down and we have no real depth. I think you only had to look at George North's face when he was asked about the tour after the Italy game to see he thinks it's crazy. Since the World Cup Wales seem to be picking whomever is fit because were out on our feet with injuries, Italy and Ireland are in the same position.

Have to agree with this I'm afraid. The Welsh will also be coming up against hungry youngsters who are going to be the next super stars in rugby that want to make their mark in this All Black side before the Lions series in 2017, the likes of James Lowe and McKenzie, Sopoaga, Weber will be using what game time they get to make a big impression and guys like Cruden, Fekitoa and Ngatai will be playing out of their skins to secure starting positions and the new leaders, Read, Coles, Ben Smith, Aaron Smith, Retallick, Whitelock are respectively the best players in their position in the world barring temporary form drops.

It's not impossible, but given the fatigue factor, lack of depth and the quality of younger players coming through in NZ rugby (guys like A.Savea, A.Ioane won't even be there), it's difficult to see Wales achieving a victory.

Also I never really see Wales put in a 80 minute shift only maybe against England where they always seem to up the anti in the last 20 minutes, but this is the All Blacks and you need to be playing for 80 minutes of the match, or you lose.

 

[valley commando]

It won't be long until these tests are upon us.

From a Welsh perspective, I have no idea how we'll perform. We looked pretty poor for much of the 6 nations, with a malfunctioning breakdown, attack, and even defense against England. I don't know how encouraged I should be about the Italy game, or whether it was more a reflection on Italy than us.

NZ are in a big rebuilding phase which gives me some hope, but players always manage to step up to the mark when they need them to.

To start the first test, I'd love to see a team of:

01 Rob Evans
02 Ken Owens
03 Samson Lee
04 Luke Charteris
05 Alun-Wyn Jones
06 Ross Moriarty
07 Justin Tipuric
08 Taulupe Faletau

09 Rhys Webb
10 Dan Biggar
11 Leigh Halfpenny
12 Scott Williams
13 Jon Davies
14 George North
15 Liam Williams

16 Scott Baldwin
17 Gethin Jenkins
18 Tom Francis
19 Bradley Davies
20 Sam Warburton
21 Gareth Davies
22 Rhys Priestland
23 Jamie Roberts

I think that the backrow looks nicely balanced with Moriarty and Tipuric. Moriarty would give us another carrying option, and general aggressiveness, which would compliment Tipuric's flair and Faletau's all round game well. I also like the idea of switching Moriarty and Faletau at the base of the ruck depending on what play we want to execute. Warburton was far from his best in the 6 nations and is as injury prone as ever.

In the backline, I really want to see us playing a more open game, Scott Williams should help us do that, whilst having Halfpenny back will be a big boost imo. I don't hugely mind which of Halfpenny or Williams plays at fullback, I think both are capable attackers if allowed to be. One thing's for sure though, the return of Halfpenny will finally mean the end of playing Cuthbert, which can only be a good thing!

Swap 1/2p for Eli Walker if fit or Amos as Toulon aren't likely to release Lee.

 

[valley commando]

I really like the look of that backline! Keen to see Halfpenny come back as a winger, with L Williams' attacking flair coming in from 15.

Can see both switching during the game anyway, as Halfpenny's positioning is great in kick defense.

My heart says we have a chance because we'll be facing a new look NZ side without the big names of the past decade or so. However, my head brings me back to reality as this is still gonna be a very very strong NZ side, with most of the players stepping into the freshly opened spots having been given plenty of opportunity over the last couple of years.

Even so, this is still arguably our best chance in a very long time to get a win against NZ, and 3 test series can throw up plenty of surprises. A pretty poor Ireland side went out there in 2012 and got hammered in the 1st and 3rd test, but still almost managed to pull off a famous result in the 2nd. Definitely not impossible for us either way!

You are right, due to circumstances in NZ with retirements and a couple of injuries we do have the best chance for a long time, however I still see us coming up short in all 3 tests with the scores getting progressively worse as the series progresses.
There are a couple of things wrong with Welsh rugby at the moment, the biggest problem is Howley the so called attack coach who as Mark Ring muted a week ago is instrumental in coaching the natural flare out of our boys. The 2nd is Gareth (perfect hair) Davies who has no real compulsion to improve the structure of Welsh rugby from the grassroots up as proved by allowing the piemens Merthyr project and therefore not allowing a level playing field in tiers 2 and 3. Finally the regions are not wanted under their current guise either get rid or lets have 2 competitive European sides - East and West Wales, further evidence this weekend about the lack of support for the regions when the professional Blues can only manage 5,200 through the gate and little semi-pro Ponty get 4,800.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/video-are-rwc-lessons-being-heeded-up-north/

Here is an interesting perspective from Nick Bishop on the G&G rugby website on Wales trying to play an expansive game, but being let down by:

1. inaccurate wide alignment
2. lack of trust in 'simple hands'
3. over-resourcing the breakdown
4. inconsistent speed of ruck delivery

Compare that to Argentina in the QF of RWC against Ireland:

 

[Ospreylian]

My team for the first test:

Evans, Owens, Lee, Ball, Awj, Warburton, Tipuric, Faletau; Webb, Biggar, Halfpenny, Roberts, S Williams, North, L Williams

Bench: Baldwin, Bevington, Francis, Charteris, Moriarty, G Davies, Sam Davies, M Morgan

My team is similar in a lot of ways to Dullonien's, and it's probably a bit more controversial.

I feel that although as a Wales fan I am obviously desperate to witness a Wales win over the All Blacks in my lifetime, I also can't ignore the fact this 3 test tour is the perfect opportunity for throwing some young exciting new talent in at the deep end, but in a relatively safe way.

I'd have Ball in the second row over Charteris. Ball is 24, Charteris 33, so I feel like Wales really need to push on and strengthen our depth in this position over the next few years before we come unstuck. Ball has slipped off form lately, but he has shown enough raw talent to prove he is the next viable option at lock to develop.

I still want to see the Warbs and Tips flank pairing given another chance. I think it has been dismissed too quickly in games where Wales as a whole haven't functioned well. I feel like it's only a matter of time before they click together and produce some great performances on the field. Warburton gives go-forward and all-round forward play as a blindside, and Tips is dynamic, quick, great at competing for ball and can act as an 8th back in attacking play. I just think both players are too classy when on form to exclude either one of them.

I want Scott Williams to cement a starting spot, and I don't feel Jon Davies is in good enough form these days to keep his. Roberts was superb this Six Nations and his defensive work is crucial, so he has to stay personally. Scott could give Wales' attack the edge it is lacking and has the ability to distribute the ball wide when needed.

Halfpenny should come back in on the undecided wing spot, and Liam Williams should stay at fullback having been our best counter attacking option for some time.

The bench is where I decided to experiment a little. I'd start pushing Bevington into the mix in order to make sure we have the depth at loosehead after Jenkins' retirement. What I've seen of Moriarty has been great so far and he could be a big impact sub. Sam Davies is crying out to be blooded at international level, having started for the Ospreys on multiple occasions ahead of Biggar. He is a classy player and I think he'll be huge for Wales sometime in the future. It is a big stage for him to get drafted in, but if Wales are losing with 10-20 minutes left on the clock, why not bring him on and see if he can ignite a comeback? Nothing to lose imo. He's the kind of player who is more than capable of creating attacking moves out of nothing. The same can be said for Matthew Morgan, who I also believe is too talented to be wasted. He covers fly half and fullback, so if a centre were to get injured, North could slot in, Liam or Leigh could move to North's spot and either one of Morgan or Sam Davies could take up fullback.

 

[dullonien]

I don't see Bevington as next in line. I did a few years ago, but he's never been able to improve his scrummaging, and would get eaten alive by the best at international level. Nicky Smith on the other hand often shows signs of dominant scrummaging, and is pretty handy on the loose too.

Anyone else as excited of the potential of Patchell as I am. He ticks a hell of a lot of boxes as an attacking talent, great hands, bags of pace, big boot, big lad to boot. Hopefully he won't fall into the Hook trap of a utility back, because he could play at 10, 12, 13 or 15.

 

[Genghis]

It's great to see us taking on and being tested by the best in the world. There is no harder place to tour than New Zealand.

I am not taking much hope from the retirements of various All Black stalwarts, NZ always have plenty of strength in depth. The presence of many of the legends will likely have been keeping some serious younger talent out of the team, perhaps unfairly at the end when Hansen went for experience at the World Cup. Those guys will be playing out of their skin to impress their home crowds and selectors.

Wales can be competitive against anyone, and we do have lots of talent ourselves ..... but I'm worried about our lack of strength in depth and also the fact our (slightly) more expansive game has not bedded in yet. Historically, we have never been good travellers ..... No Samson Lee pun intended there

I think that we will either get pasted, or the games will be razor tight. Surprisingly, I don't see the tests as being routine All Balck wins.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/35925083

Good news, no?

 

[Hendo74]

Whilst I'd never cheer for an injury (and I've been rooting for Cuthbert to come good for a LONG time now), I guess it does fit nicely with the (hopeful) return of 1/2p, S. Williams etc.

I think it all boils down to what style we are going to play - if it's the recent style (i.e. defensive until last 20) then I'd expect to still see (for example) Lydiate at 6, Roberts at 12 and maybe 1/2p back at 15. If, however, there's an attempt to develop a faster, running style then who knows, maybe the Warbs/Tips flanker combo might get another go, the JD/SW centre pairing and perhaps 1/2p on the wing. I'm just not sure Gats will go quite that far.

My team would be a bit of both, to be honest - maybe still a bit defensive but I think 1/2p will make a big difference wherever he starts (bold denotes nailed-on starters if fit):-

01 Rob Evans
02 Scott Baldwin (only because he wouldn't make an impact like Owens does)
03 Samson Lee
04 Luke Charteris (line-outs better with him involved)
05 Alun-Wyn Jones
06 Dan Lydiate (still needs to rediscover his best form though)
07 Sam Warburton
08 Taulupe Faletau

09 Rhys Webb
10 Dan Biggar
11 Liam Williams
12 Jamie Roberts (better if he starts?)
13 Jon Davies
14 George North
15 Leigh Halfpenny

16 Ken Owens
17 Gethin Jenkins (will he definitely go...?)
18 Tom Francis
19 Brad Davies/Jake Ball
20 Justin Tipuric/Ross Moriarty
21 Gareth Davies/Lloyd Williams
22 Rhys Priestland/Sam Davies
23 Scott Williams/Gareth Anscombe

Two more e.g. Matthew Morgan and Hallam Amos to make the 30?

 

[scar123]

What I'd take...

Props:
Rob Evans
Gethin Jenkins
Nicky Smith
Samson Lee
Tomas Francis

Hookers:
Scott Baldwin
Ken Owens

2nd Rows:
Luke Charteris
Alun Wyn Jones
Jake Ball
Bradley Davies

Back Rows:
Dan Lydiate
Sam Warburton
Ross Moriarty
James Davies (take him over Tips, who won't have had much if any game time before the end of the season)
Taulupe Faletau

Scrum Halves:
Rhys Webb
Gareth Davies
Aled Davies

Fly Halves:
Dan Biggar
Rhys Patchell

Centres:
Jamie Roberts
Scott Williams
Jonathan Davies
Tyler Morgan

Back 3:
Leigh Halfpenny
Liam Williams
Tom James
George North
Hallam Amos
(maybe) Eli Walker

Possibly take another hooker (Dacey) or another 10/15 ( probably Morgan/Anscombe)

 

[Ospreylian]

I don't see Bevington as next in line. I did a few years ago, but he's never been able to improve his scrummaging, and would get eaten alive by the best at international level. Nicky Smith on the other hand often shows signs of dominant scrummaging, and is pretty handy on the loose too.

Sorry, I had a complete mind block for props when I wrote that team. Scrap Bevington, I'm with you on Nicky Smith. How could I forget that guy's potential?

 

[nzlizard]

While June is a while away yet, the form of some of the AB prospects is nothing short of amazing, obviously they need to maintain that form, but it is looking good for the AB's in the "rebuilding" year.

Real test will be the rugby championship and EOYT.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

I'd be happy with a Highlanders/Chiefs backline and a Crusaders forward pack, with a few extras thrown in.

1 Moody
2 Coles
3 Franks
4 Retallick
5 Whitelock
6 Kaino
7 Cane
8 Read
9 Smith
10 Cruden
11 Savea
12 Ngatai
13 Fekitoa
14 Lowe
15 Smith

16 Taylor
17 Crockett
18 Faumuina
19 Tuipulotu
20 Dixon
21 Weber
22 McKenzie
23 Ranger

 

[0tago]

I'd be happy with a Highlanders/Chiefs backline and a Crusaders forward pack, with a few extras thrown in.

1 Moody
2 Coles
3 Franks
4 Retallick
5 Whitelock
6 Kaino
7 Cane
8 Read
9 Smith
10 Cruden
11 Savea
12 Ngatai
13 Fekitoa
14 Lowe
15 Smith

16 Taylor
17 Crockett
18 Faumuina
19 Tuipulotu
20 Dixon
21 Weber
22 McKenzie
23 Ranger

This looks really good, the only selection I disagree with is the Ranger selection. Crotty, Naholo and NMS offer far more than what he ever will, I don't expect him to ever make the ABs, I understand his abilities to play at centre or wing, but I think there are far better options in numbers and I expect to see TJ and Weber rotated and Cruden/Sopoaga/Mckenzie/Barrett.

Damn, I'm not quite sure the Welsh boys quite know what they're in for when they come out here. I really have a feeling they're going to get absolutely rekt in every test given the current form and depth of all our players.