[November Tests 2016 EOYT] Ireland vs. New Zealand (05/11/2016)

[Every Time Ref]

It was fairly obvious Aaron Smith shouldn't have started, coming in cold from a massive off-field controversy.

Was it really obvious? It might be obvious in retrospect, but given he was on great form before missing one game for non-rugby reasons, I can't see how many would have predicted him underperforming. I think it had far more to do with his pack getting beaten than his suspension.

I haven't been following the AB threads here that closely but are their comments all that kneejerk? Or are they continued thought processes on weaknesses identified while crushing everyone? Its not unusual for fans to look at aspects of play and say "A better team will punish us there" and its certainly not been unusual to look at the Rugby Championship as a whole and suspect that there should be better teams out there than those NZ played this year.

I haven't followed in detail either, but in the back of this game there's a fair few calling for certain people to be dropped. Barrett has always been a bit divisive I'll grant you but a week ago Aaron Smith was still rightly seen as arguably the best 9 / possibly even the best player in world rugby, I don't recall anyone calling for him to be dropped.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

I seem to be working of at least some statistics and information and you two working of opinions.



This is the correct thread anyway.

Look at the way growth is calculated and you'll see it's pretty worthless. Mainly used by companies that have little market share but are trying to put a positive spin on it.

You may be using statistics but you have no idea how they work.

 

[Makos]

Look at the way growth is calculated and you'll see it's pretty worthless. Mainly used by companies that have little market share but are trying to put a positive spin on it.

You may be using statistics but you have no idea how they work.

110,000 registered players in America and according Sports Fitness Industry Association in the U.S. puts the number of participants in rugby at 1.2 million.

This is big numbers for Rugby. It might be small for you, since USA is a huge country population wise, but for a small fish in the pond like NZ this is something we can gain revenue from and potential TV deals for our domestic competitions, since viewership with the NBS is 'growing'.

Thanks for your opinions though.

 

[ncurd]

Statistic's is one of dodgiest areas of use of mathematics I've seen, which why the phrase "lies, damn lies and statistics".

The reality is statistics don't lie but people's application and interpretation of them is crap at the best of times. They think they've 'proven' something but anyone with some decent level of study into them usually know them to be complete and utter horlicks.

What is fastest growing? How have they come to that determination? If 1 person supported your sport and 100 people suddenly like it you suddenly have growth of 10,000% in that sample.

Recently our marketing department was deemed to be at 1000% above thier target. This came from a monthly target that was stupidly small and how much they blitzed it. Problem is as that month wasn't properly weighted against the rest of the years target's they looked like they were doing brilliant when in fact they were miles behind thier year end goal.

You can do a lot to make yourself sound great when in reality you're rubbish when you get to raw numbers of it all.

 

[Makos]

Was it really obvious? It might be obvious in retrospect, but given he was on great form before missing one game for non-rugby reasons, I can't see how many would have predicted him underperforming. I think it had far more to do with his pack getting beaten than his suspension.



I haven't followed in detail either, but in the back of this game there's a fair few calling for certain people to be dropped. Barrett has always been a bit divisive I'll grant you but a week ago Aaron Smith was still rightly seen as arguably the best 9 / possibly even the best player in world rugby, I don't recall anyone calling for him to be dropped.

Smith is the best 9 in the world. TJ is probably best equal. It was good of Hansen to throw him in the deep and show him confidence after the off field drama, but I think starting an inform TJ would have made some difference.

One thing that could have surely helped us massively was Tom Franklin playing and Kaino starting at blindside. The line out would have been far better and Kaino at 6 a lot better. I think that could have swung the result in our favour.

 

[ncurd]

110,000 registered players in America and according Sports Fitness Industry Association in the U.S. puts the number of participants in rugby at 1.2 million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rugby_union_in_the_United_States#Growing_participation

No idea how you got to 1.2 million unless there are 10x people playing than those at very amateur levels. I find that number extremely dubious at best.....

The registration numbers are similar to NZ
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rugby_union_in_New_Zealand

However as proven by England
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rugby_union_in_England

Those number actually mean nothing in terms of actual success.

 

[Makos]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rugby_union_in_the_United_States#Growing_participation

No idea how you got to 1.2 million unless there are 10x people playing than those at very amateur levels. I find that number extremely dubious at best.....

The registration numbers are similar to NZ
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rugby_union_in_New_Zealand

However as proven by England
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rugby_union_in_England

Those number actually mean nothing in terms of actual success.

The numbers are similar to NZ and it's our national sport. That's a big deal considering USA has nearly the same amount of registered players as the best National side in the world does.

I got to 1.2m from data from the Sports & Fitness Industry Association shows that the number of rugby players in the United States doubled between 2008 and 2013, reaching almost 1.2 million. This, according to the same data, makes rugby the fastest-growing sport in the United States. As mentioned earlier.

http://www.sportspromedia.com/opinion/why_rugbys_growth_in_the_us_could_change_the_global_game
https://www.sfia.org/

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/04/sport/usa-rugby-nigel-melville/

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Smith is the best 9 in the world. TJ is probably best equal. It was good of Hansen to throw him in the deep and show him confidence after the off field drama, but I think starting an inform TJ would have made some difference.

One thing that could have surely helped us massively was Tom Franklin playing and Kaino starting at blindside. The line out would have been far better and Kaino at 6 a lot better. I think that could have swung the result in our favour.

I hope Hansen starts Smith, Murray has outplayed him twice in a row and he's not the type of 9 who does well against our structured defence. TJ on the other hand follows the play in a way which can cause us a lot of trouble. His try reminded me a lot of the try by Danny Care that denied us a slam in 2014 both times more cynical defences would block the 9 coming through, we weren't cute enough. Its worth sacrificing extremely quick ball against us for a 9 like Perenara who is harder to rattle and is better at following attacking plays.

 

[Makos]

I hope Hansen starts Smith, Murray has outplayed him twice in a row and he's not the type of 9 who does well against our structured defence. TJ on the other hand follows the play in a way which can cause us a lot of trouble. His try reminded me a lot of the try by Danny Care that denied us a slam in 2014 both times more cynical defences would block the 9 coming through, we weren't cute enough. Its worth sacrificing extremely quick ball against us for a 9 like Perenara who is harder to rattle and is better at following attacking plays.

I also think TJ is better defensively. I would have liked Smith to earn his spot back. Especially after the displays TJ has shown. But I still think Smith will start in Dublin, with changes to our backrow and locks being the main focus. With Sam and Brodie back, I think we will be a completely different team.

 

[ncurd]

Those articles cite the study but don't actually link it so I've got no idea how they came to that figure.

I'm not convinced by 900,000 enthisats which USA Rugby know nothing about. They certainly won't be playing anything close

Your also forgetting that concentration of good players is what breed success we have no idea about player spread. 'Top 5 team in 5 years' that's stupid talk their intenational team is barely tier 2, they came the bottom of a gorup containing SA (who lost to Japan), Scotland (did well but one of the worst 6 nations teams), Japan (punching above thier weight) and Samoa (good team but Tier 2 all the way). Top 5 by 2011 suggests they should be aiming QF's in 3 years (3rd in group as a minimal).....never going to happen and it's laughable goal, when consider countries with proper structures in place are struggling massively to get there.

 

[Every Time Ref]

Smith is the best 9 in the world. TJ is probably best equal. It was good of Hansen to throw him in the deep and show him confidence after the off field drama, but I think starting an inform TJ would have made some difference.

Fair enough, Smith played badly (behind a pack who had a tough day), TJ might well have been an improvement, but my point was, was it that obvious beforehand?

Don't agree that the two of them are best equal in the world, mind.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Smith is the best 9 in the world. TJ is probably best equal.

Questionable. Smith is clearly a class act but I think somewhat overrated. And his performance on Saturday was dire. I actually prefer Perenara TBH. And both were outclassed by Murray, who I believe is, at the moment, the best 9 in the world.

 

[Makos]

Those articles cite the study but don't actually link it so I've got no idea how they came to that figure.

I'm not convinced by 900,000 enthisats which USA Rugby know nothing about. They certainly won't be playing anything close

Here's the root of the source quoted. It's flakey, but better than nothing.

https://www.sfia.org/reports/329_Rugby-Participation-Report-2015

I'm no longer a registered player, but I'll still have a game of touch with my mates and help with my nephews team, that makes me a participant.

The markets there in America for the All Blacks. People love winners and big brand sports team. Merchandise sales and everything can contribute to helping the All Blacks make revenue. We have to expand like that because of our population size. How many shirt sales and merchandise sales do you think were made at the last few Chicago matches?

The All Blacks are the biggest thing in rugby and they are always going to raise the profile of the sport when they go to America. It's just like soccer football isn't a big deal in NZ, but when Beckham came out here with the LA Galaxy years ago, people went banana's and it helped soccer footballs exposure.

61,000 is 11,000 more than what Eden Park holds as well. It's good for the NZRU and it was even better for the IRFU since they won so emphatically.

Great occasion all round.

- - - Updated - - -

Questionable. Smith is clearly a class act but I think somewhat overrated. And his performance on Saturday was dire. I actually prefer Perenara TBH. And both were outclassed by Murray, who I believe is, at the moment, the best 9 in the world.

You guys are like sharks in here, pounce on anything.

Smith and TJ have upheld the best standard of consistent performances at 9 for a long period of time now. After a 1 off yesterday doesn't make Murray better than them. Continued performances will. I think Smiths was slightly circumstantial as well.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

You guys are like sharks in here, pounce on anything.

Smith and TJ have upheld the best standard of consistent performances at 9 for a long period of time now. After a 1 off yesterday doesn't make Murray better than them. Continued performances will. I think Smiths was slightly circumstantial as well.

To be honest I'm inclined to agree, I had Murray down as my second best 9 in the world last week, that's the second time in two games he's outplayed Smith though as well as it being the best performance from a 9 I have seen in my life. It's definitely not outrageous to pick Murray in a World XV. Himself, McGrath and Henshaw are our contenders for it anyway.

 

[Every Time Ref]

Here's the root of the source quoted. It's flakey, but better than nothing.

https://www.sfia.org/reports/329_Rugby-Participation-Report-2015

I'm no longer a registered player, but I'll still have a game of touch with my mates and help with my nephews team, that makes me a participant.

The markets there in America for the All Blacks. People love winners and big brand sports team. Merchandise sales and everything can contribute to helping the All Blacks make revenue. We have to expand like that because of our population size. How many shirt sales and merchandise sales do you think were made at the last few Chicago matches?

The All Blacks are the biggest thing in rugby and they are always going to raise the profile of the sport when they go to America. It's just like soccer football isn't a big deal in NZ, but when Beckham came out here with the LA Galaxy years ago, people went banana's and it helped soccer footballs exposure.

61,000 is 11,000 more than what Eden Park holds as well. It's good for the NZRU and it was even better for the IRFU since they won so emphatically.

Great occasion all round.

- - - Updated - - -



You guys are like sharks in here, pounce on anything.

Smith and TJ have upheld the best standard of consistent performances at 9 for a long period of time now. After a 1 off yesterday doesn't make Murray better than them. Continued performances will. I think Smiths was slightly circumstantial as well.

One off performance has got nothing to do with it, Murray's been performing for a while

- - - Updated - - -

To be honest I'm inclined to agree, I had Murray down as my second best 9 in the world last week, that's the second time in two games he's outplayed Smith though as well as it being the best performance from a 9 I have seen in my life. It's definitely not outrageous to pick Murray in a World XV. Himself, McGrath and Henshaw are our contenders for it anyway.

He's also not had the armchair ride that Smith has had anything like as often

 

[Makos]

To be honest I'm inclined to agree, I had Murray down as my second best 9 in the world last week, that's the second time in two games he's outplayed Smith though as well as it being the best performance from a 9 I have seen in my life. It's definitely not outrageous to pick Murray in a World XV. Himself, McGrath and Henshaw are our contenders for it anyway.

Smith was returning after a really serious personal off field drama. The backrow and lock situation wasn't ideal. I think the jury is still out on worlds best 9 until after the Dublin fixture. On form TJ is the best 9 in the world at the moment. Smith has had a some what indifferent season. TJ has scored in how many consecutive games now?

He's also not had the armchair ride that Smith has had anything like as often

I really do hate comments like this. Smith has worked hard and played very well and competitively for many years now to earn his deserved reputation.

 

[Every Time Ref]

Smith was returning after a really serious personal off field drama. The backrow and lock situation wasn't ideal. I think the jury is still out on worlds best 9 until after the Dublin fixture. On form TJ is the best 9 in the world at the moment. Smith has had a some what indifferent season. TJ has scored in how many consecutive games now?



I really do hate comments like this. Smith has worked hard and played very well and competitively for many years now to earn his deserved reputation.

Not denying that - what I mean by "armchair ride" is that the forward pack he plays behind has very rarely been dominated

 

[Makos]

Not denying that - what I mean by "armchair ride" is that the forward pack he plays behind has very rarely been dominated

Curious to know why you don't think TJ should be considered in the same bracket as Aaron? I truly believe he's been rampant this year and one of our best players.

 

[Every Time Ref]

Curious to know why you don't think TJ should be considered in the same bracket as Aaron? I truly believe he's been rampant this year and one of our best players.

I don't recall saying that, but for what it's worth he hasn't made as much of an impression on me as Aaron Smith - freely admit that could be because I haven't seen as much of him, I don't watch much SR and in internationals he's usually on later i nthe game - and in ABs games that's frequently when matches get boring and I drift away to be honest!

 

[Makos]

I don't recall saying that, but for what it's worth he hasn't made as much of an impression on me as Aaron Smith - freely admit that could be because I haven't seen as much of him, I don't watch much SR and in internationals he's usually on later i nthe game - and in ABs games that's frequently when matches get boring and I drift away to be honest!

Don't agree that the two of them are best equal in the world, mind.

Ah, I have misinterpreted this instead of interpreting you meant Murray was #1

Something like this makes the Dublin fixture even more interesting. I will be watching Murray closely. I am open to admission Smith has been knocked of his perch as #1.

The All Blacks have just been so effective with bringing TJ on later in the match, Hansen might have to look at starting TJ in Dublin though. As Alpha mentioned earlier, he's been done in twice by Murray.