Log prediction according to SArugby.com

[TRF_stormer2010]

I haven't included a link as they did it one at a time and I'm too lazy to post 15 links. Check it out at www.sarugby.com.

1 Blue Bulls
2 Crusaders
3 Stormers
4 Waratahs
5 Sharks
6 Reds
7 Chiefs
8 Hurricanes
9 Brumbies
10 Blues
11 Lions
12 Highlanders
13 Rebels
14 Cheetahs
15 Western Force

Well, I agree on the places of the teams in relation to their conference opponents although I would tip both the Blues and Hurricanes to end higher than the Chiefs. It is probably possible for 3 SA teams to reach the top 5 but that would mean they have to 1) massacre both the Lions and Cheetahs home and away and 2) pretty much do the same against the Australasians as their games against each other account for 1/4 of the games played by each and they might take points away from each other which influences the overall picture. Easier said than done but one has to take into account some level of bias with this being a SA based website and, maths and the permutations of the conference system aside, this is possibly a fair reflection of who the top 6 contenders are. A more fair assesment might see another NZ team joining the top 6 but with the nZ conference arguably the most evenly spread, it could well be a 3rd SA side joining the finals should the 'lowlier' NZ teams stage a coup or two in their conference. TBH I would be surprised if both SA and Aus don't have 2 spots in the top 6 because of conference games making up 1/2 the challenge. The Force has been hit the hardest with preseason injuries (along with the Highlanders) so i think it a fair call to give them the wooden spoon to start off with. On CC form I would also say its a fair call to move the Lions up the ladder even though I think it might be ambitious at this stage to put them above the Highlanders and I think the Cheetahs also have something to say and won't want to be at the bottom of teh SA conference. The Rebels placed at 13 is a good indication of pundits not knowing what to make of the dark horse and I guess anything from 15th up to 11th is a possibility. Anything higher would be a surprise IMO.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Yeah it's basically impossible for the above to occur, as the Cheetahs are too far up the table to allow three SA teams into the top six - unless of course the SA teams somehow win all their overseas games too...

But otherwise it does look like a fair reflection. Crusaders will finish above the Bulls, and the Reds seriously lack depth, so I think they'll finish lower too.

 

[Gena_ZA]

see what the bookies predict - http://www.betbrain.com/rugby-union/australia/super-15-incl-playoffs-/winner/

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Yeah it's basically impossible for the above to occur, as the Cheetahs are too far up the table to allow three SA teams into the top six - unless of course the SA teams somehow win all their overseas games too...

But otherwise it does look like a fair reflection. Crusaders will finish above the Bulls, and the Reds seriously lack depth, so I think they'll finish lower too.

I'm inclined to agree with you. There is probably a bias towards the SA sides with this being a SA based website so go figure.

see what the bookies predict - http://www.betbrain.com/rugby-union/australia/super-15-incl-playoffs-/winner/

Interesting. 2 things I get from this; it's 50/50 between the Sharks and Stormers according to these guys and I am personlly underestimating the Brumbies by their general estimation; I would put the brumbies below both 'Canes and and equal with the Chiefs or thereabouts. That said, the brumbies have the easier draw so they are probably right.

 

[Gena_ZA]

I was a bit stunned that they rate the Reds that low

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I was a bit stunned that they rate the Reds that low

Well, I'd say the Bulls, Crusaders and Waratahs are all fair enough at this this stage and the Sharks and Stormers one can understand especially with this being a SA based site. I'd place them 6th as well knowing that one of the SA sides will drop down because of the conference system but I woulnd't know which to pick. Hell, things could just as easily go horribly wrong I guess. That is the problem with projections; they count for 0 on the day.

 

[Shaggy]

Here's TVNZ's predictions of where the NZ teams will finish

... I guess it's no surprise that they predict that the Crusaders will win the whole thing, but they are predicting that the Hurricanes will be the next best placed NZ team at 5th, but maybe the Blues will finish above them

http://tvnz.co.nz/rugby-news/super-rugby-preview-nz-conference-4031660

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Here's TVNZ's predictions of where the NZ teams will finish

... I guess it's no surprise that they predict that the Crusaders will win the whole thing, but they are predicting that the Hurricanes will be the next best placed NZ team at 5th, but maybe the Blues will finish above them

http://tvnz.co.nz/rugby-news/super-rugby-preview-nz-conference-4031660

Jeez, the NZ media is quite hard on the other NZ franchizes (Crusaders excluded). I'd say the Chiefs should probably go higher than 10th although admitedly it does get tough from there on out, possibly they could go above the Brumbies to 9th IMO. The Hurricanes and Blues could reach the finals if they get some more consistency this year. I also think the race between the Blues and 'Canes for the 2nd spot in their conference will be as tight as the SA one.

As for the Aussies; its a 2 team race for the top spot though both the Reds and 'Tahs will probably be in the play-offs. I don't have too much hope for the Brumbies though; Mortlock and Smith out are huge losses coupled with injuires to leaders like Elsom and Hoiles and Giteau's dip in form. Only star at the moment is AAC. The other race will be between the Force and Rebels for the wooden spoon. I think the Cheetahs, Lions and Highlanders will end above both these teams.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

I think the Rebels will surprise a few people - I see them finishing above the Lions, Cheetahs and Force.

I'm picking:
1 Bulls
2 Crusaders
3 Waratahs
4 Stormers
5 Chiefs
6 Reds
7 Brumbies
8 Hurricanes
9 Sharks
10 Blues
11 Highlanders
12 Rebels
13 Lions
14 Force
15 Cheetahs

 

[smartcooky]

Their log prediction is impossible. There cannot be two teams from the same Conference in the top three. Seed 1, 2 and 3 are the three Conference winners, in order of their final table points tally, so there HAS to be at least one team from each Conference there. After that anything can happen!


However, keep this in mind. If one Conference is totally dominated by one team, and the other two are closely fought, then it is likely that this one team will be the only team from their Conference to make the Post season, because they will deprive their Conference colleagues of table points. This would allow the runners up from the other two Conferences to get ahead of the runners up in their Conference.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Their log prediction is impossible. There cannot be two teams from the same Conference in the top three. Seed 1, 2 and 3 are the three Conference winners, in order of their final table points tally, so there HAS to be at least one team from each Conference there. After that anything can happen!


However, keep this in mind. If one Conference is totally dominated by one team, and the other two are closely fought, then it is likely that this one team will be the only team from their Conference to make the Post season, because they will deprive their Conference colleagues of table points. This would allow the runners up from the other two Conferences to get ahead of the runners up in their Conference.

This just keeps sounding more and more like an Aussie stitch-up LOL. It is mathematicllt possible though. The off shot would just be that the 3rd placed team in the final overall table wouldn't be ranked as 3rd WRT the play-offs.

 

[Shaggy]

Jeez, the NZ media is quite hard on the other NZ franchizes (Crusaders excluded). I'd say the Chiefs should probably go higher than 10th although admitedly it does get tough from there on out, possibly they could go above the Brumbies to 9th IMO. The Hurricanes and Blues could reach the finals if they get some more consistency this year. I also think the race between the Blues and 'Canes for the 2nd spot in their conference will be as tight as the SA one.

As for the Aussies; its a 2 team race for the top spot though both the Reds and 'Tahs will probably be in the play-offs. I don't have too much hope for the Brumbies though; Mortlock and Smith out are huge losses coupled with injuires to leaders like Elsom and Hoiles and Giteau's dip in form. Only star at the moment is AAC. The other race will be between the Force and Rebels for the wooden spoon. I think the Cheetahs, Lions and Highlanders will end above both these teams.

Here's how TVNZ sees how the Aussie teams will finish

http://tvnz.co.nz/rugby-news/super-rugby-preview-australian-conference-4030104

 

[smartcooky]

This just keeps sounding more and more like an Aussie stitch-up LOL. It is mathematicllt possible though. The off shot would just be that the 3rd placed team in the final overall table wouldn't be ranked as 3rd WRT the play-offs.

No, it is impossible

1. Conference winner with the highest table points
2. Conference winner with the second highest table points
3. Conferenece winner with the third highest table points

You MUST WIN your conference to occupy one of these top three positions. There is no mathematically possibility of having two teams from the same conference in these top three. Even if a non-winner from any conference has more table points than a conference winner, they still cannot be ranked higher than 4th.

4. Conference non-winner with the highest table points
5. Conference non-winner with the second highest table points
4. Conference non-winner with the third highest table points

Example

1. Bulls......................55 pts
2 Crusaders..............49 pts
3. Waratahs..............47 pts

4. Stormers...............48 pts
5. Reds.....................46 pts
6. Blues.....................45 pts

Stormers do NOT go into third spot even though they have more points than Waratahs

 

[Shaggy]

... the third part of the equation - how TVNZ see the South African teams finishing

http://tvnz.co.nz/rugby-news/super-rugby-preview-south-african-conference-4033220

... so combining the three articles this how they rank them overall

1. Crusaders
2. Bulls
3. Waratahs
4. Stormers
5. Hurricanes
6. Sharks
7. Reds
8. Blues
9. Brumbies
10. Chiefs
11. Cheetahs
12. Force
13. Highlanders
14. Rebels
15. Lions

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

No, it is impossible

1. Conference winner with the highest table points
2. Conference winner with the second highest table points
3. Conferenece winner with the third highest table points

You MUST WIN your conference to occupy one of these top three positions. There is no mathematically possibility of having two teams from the same conference in these top three. Even if a non-winner from any conference has more table points than a conference winner, they still cannot be ranked higher than 4th.

4. Conference non-winner with the highest table points
5. Conference non-winner with the second highest table points
4. Conference non-winner with the third highest table points

Example

1. Bulls......................55 pts
2 Crusaders..............49 pts
3. Waratahs..............47 pts

4. Stormers...............48 pts
5. Reds.....................46 pts
6. Blues.....................45 pts

Stormers do NOT go into third spot even though they have more points than Waratahs

Thats exactly what I meant; The offshot would be that the team who is 3rd on points in the overall points standing won't be considered third.

I just meant that a team 2nd in their conference could have more points than a team winning another as your other post made it sound like you said that is impossible. Maybe my English is letting my down. It has been a long week LOL.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

... the third part of the equation - how TVNZ see the South African teams finishing

http://tvnz.co.nz/rugby-news/super-rugby-preview-south-african-conference-4033220

... so combining the three articles this how they rank them overall

1. Crusaders
2. Bulls
3. Waratahs
4. Stormers
5. Hurricanes
6. Sharks
7. Reds
8. Blues
9. Brumbies
10. Chiefs
11. Cheetahs
12. Force
13. Highlanders
14. Rebels
15. Lions

I could go with that although I would swap the Lions and Rebels around and swap the Cheetahs and HIghlander around; they have a horrible draw this year. I love how the Reds are being 'disrespected' LOL. With that top 8 anything can happen really.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Reds have no depth.

 

[smartcooky]

Thats exactly what I meant; The offshot would be that the team who is 3rd on points in the overall points standing won't be considered third.

I just meant that a team 2nd in their conference could have more points than a team winning another as your other post made it sound like you said that is impossible. Maybe my English is letting my down. It has been a long week LOL.

OK its a misunderstanding.

Yes, the teams with the three highest table scores could all be from one conference. I imagine that could happen by something like these thee teams winning every game against the other two teams plus winning all their "cross-conference games, all with bonus points and with big scores while giving up no bonus points, and all the while drawing or having close losses between them with bonus points all round, while the other the conferences all have the win/loss shared around with few bonus points.

However, as I explained, only the conference winner gets a top 3 spot in the play-offs

 

[Seaton]

No where else to put this, but the Lions played really well yesterday, and the subs performed as well

Should certainly finish higher than the Rebels, but I still wouldn't place money on it