The first match this weekend is between the Auckland Blues and the Otago Highlanders. North vs. South. The Highlanders travel back from Nelson with 4 points in the bag after beating the Crusaders last weekend. Because of their win, they are only 1 point behind the Crusaders now and the Blues have taken over the position on top of the Conference with a win last week. Can the Highlanders beat 2 conference leaders in a row? All will depend on their ability to act as a team like last weekend when they were without Kade Poki and Adam Thomson. Tony Brown has stepped up as replacement fly-half for the Highlanders last week. The 36-year old, who also played Super Rugby for the Sharks and Stormers, scored 11 points from the kicking tee against the Crusaders and was also important for the win over the reigning champions the Bulls. For the match with the Blues it seems that Adam Thomson, Jimmy Cowan and Alando Soakai will be back from injury.
In the Blues squad, all eyes will be on Rene Ranger. The winger has scored 6 tries so far this season and together with Jared Payne (who scored 5) he is the main reason the Blues are on top of the Conference. Tony Woodcock is probably the only issue from the Blues side which is a good thing, knowing they will miss Charlie Faumuina, Brad Mika, Liaki Moli and Daniel Braid already through injury. Tevita Mailau will replace Woodcock in the front-row.
Blues coach Pat Lam and Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph played their rugby through a similar era and they have stayed in touch and Lam thinks that both coaches will have a fair idea of the other's approach and tactics. It will be an exciting match to watch that can go either way.
In recent years, the Blues have mainly won the matches between the 2. The last time the Highlanders won, was in 2006, when they beat the Auckland side 26-13. In 2003, the Otago side managed to be the only team in the competition to beat the Blues that year, who went on to win the Super12 ***le. In Dunedin, the Blues came short 22-11 which denied them the possibility to win the trophy unbeaten, an achievement they reached only in 1997.
2010 Highlanders 15 -
19 Blues
2009
Blues 26 - 6 Highlanders
2008 Highlanders 15 -
40 Blues
2007
Blues 28 - 9 Highlanders
2006
Highlanders 26 - 13 Blues
2005 Highlanders 14 -
30 Blues
2004
Blues 50 - 22 Highlanders
2003
Highlanders 22 - 11 Blues
2002 Blues 13 -
20 Highlanders
2001
Highlanders 23 - 8 Blues
2000
Blues 26 - 16 Highlanders
______________________________________________________________________________________
The Cheetahs and Brumbies play each other in Bloemfontein which is the first of the 2 matches the Brumbies will play in South Africa. Next week they meet the Sharks and with that, they travel the exact same route the Hurricanes did. For the Canes it brought them 10 conceded tries in 2 matches and the Brumbies hope they can do better defensively. The Canberra side is losing Adam Ashley-Cooper at the end of the season which means a serious blow to the squad, knowing also Matt Giteau is leaving for Europe at the end of the World Cup. With only 2 wins in the season so far, it hasn't been the best start the team from Canberra could have hoped for.
With only 165 points scored, they are the least scoring side in the competition, with even the Force, Rebels, Lions and Cheetahs scoring more. Can they recover in Bloemfontein and get back on track? A lot will depend on Matt Giteau and Pat McCabe. The Brumbies, who will probably be coached by Jake White next year, need to win if they want to grab the final straw towards the play offs. A bonus point win will bring them to 26 points and only a 5 point-win will do.
How different are things for the Cheetahs. They lost 47-50 in the most thrilling match so far in 2011. 11 tries between them and the Hurricanes and only 20 seconds away from a win 2 weeks ago, the Cheetahs want to strike back and this time win. They only managed to beat the Waratahs, in Sydney, but have snatched up 7 bonus points including 2 in the loss to the Canes 2 weeks ago. Big man on the Cheetahs side is Sarel Pretorius. The 27-year old has clubs chasing him from New Zealand, Australia and even France. With his contract expiring this year, things look good for the scrum half who is contracted to the Griquas from Kimberley.
Last week he scored a hat-trick and it brought him to a total of 6 tries already this season. The good play by Pretorius is hiding the fact that the Cheetahs are missing some key players. Andries Strauss, his cousin Adriaan Strauss, Juan Smith and Heinrich Brussow have all missed several matches. Adriaan Strauss made his comeback last week as a sub and Brussow might be fit to play but the loss of Juan Smith is a severe loss to the franchise.
History shows that matches never end on a low point. There is always something to look forward to when these 2 teams play each other. Ever since the Cheetahs formed their own franchise in 2006 and seperated from the Lions (with whom they formed the Cats previously), they have beaten the Brumbies only in 2007. This was a match where there were 5 tries scored by the Cheetahs (Falie Oelschig, Gavin Passens, Richardt Strauss, Phillip Burger and Juan Smith) which were all converted by Willem de Waal (later Stormers and now playing for Benneton Treviso).
The biggest win for the Brumbies against the Cheetahs was last year when they managed to beat them 61-15 with tries by Ben Alexander, Stephen Hoiles, Patrick Phibbs, Tyrone Smith, Rocky Elsom, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Matt Toomua and Alfi Mafi.
As the Cats, they have suffered bigger losses in 2002 (64-16) and 2000 (64-0).
2010
Brumbies 61 - 15 Cheetahs
2009 Cheetahs 27 -
40 Brumbies
2008
Brumbies 29 - 23 Cheetahs
2007
Cheetahs 38 - 20 Brumbies
2006
Brumbies 53 - 20 Cheetahs
2005 Cats 29 -
34 Brumbies
2004
Brumbies 68 - 28 Cats
2003
Cats 34 - 32 Brumbies
2002
Brumbies 64 - 16 Cats
2001 Cats 17 -
19 Brumbies
2000
Brumbies 64 - 0 Cats
______________________________________________________________________________________
In Wellington the Reds look to extend their winning streak to 8 when they take on the Hurricanes. The Brisbane side have only lost in round 2 and have been topping the overall Log for quite some time now. Last week they finally managed to beat the Waratahs 19-15 but it was at a price. Rod Davies, Digby Ioane, James Slipper and Ben Daley all ended the day with an injury. Reds coach Ewen McKenzie is however confident that he has enough depth to cover the losses at prop and wing.
The Hurricanes have to get back to their tight defense. In the last 2 matches they conceded a total of 10 tries. Now, back at home for the first time since the start of the month (round 7) they will want to bounce back and keep the Reds from scoring. Doing so will be hard enough because the Reds are on fire. Scoring 6 tries against the Bulls and winning both their tour matches in South Africa (against the Lions and Stormers) shows they are ready to take on any opponent. The Hurricanes will be their first opponent across the ditch and will be a match that has to be taken seriously. The Hurricanes miss Conrad Smith, Aaron Cruden and Piri Weepu among others but hope their backline with among others Gear, Nonu and Jane will be able to hurt the Reds defense.
History doesn't show good fortune for the Reds. The last time the Queensland side managed to win in Wellington was back in 1998 when their triumph was well deserved with a 33-41 win. The only other time they won in Wellington was in the inaugural season when they won 25-32. Since the turn of the century, the Reds came close in 2006 when they lost by 4 points and 2008 when the difference was only 5. The biggest win by the Hurricanes on the Reds was last year when they won 44-21.
2010
Hurricanes 44 - Reds 21
2009 Reds 28 -
Hurricanes 37
2008
Hurricanes 23 - Reds 18
2007 Reds 15 -
Hurricanes 26
2006
Hurricanes 26 - Reds 22
2005 Reds 10 -
Hurricanes 24
2004
Hurricanes 29 - Reds 12
2003
Reds 23 - Hurricanes 26
2002
Hurricanes 22 - Reds 18
2001
Reds 27 - Hurricanes 18
2000
Hurricanes 43 - Reds 25
______________________________________________________________________________________
The Waratahs have not taken the chance to get back to the top of the conference or even close to it. With the loss against the Reds last weekend, they are 11 points behind the Queensland rivals. The difference with the lowest wild card teams (Highlanders and Sharks) is 6 points. When they take on the Rebels on saturday, it will be their first match back in Sydney after travelling to Perth, Auckland and Brisbane these last 3 weeks. Only against the Western Force, they managed to win, but in the match against the color-teams (Blues and Reds) they fell short.
The match against the Rebels will be the first of 3 consecutive matches at the Sydney Football Stadium, with a bye in between before they travel to South Africa and take on the Sharks and the Bulls. In these matches it's unlikely they will snatch up 10 points so most will depend on the 3 matches back home. The Force and the Lions await them later, but now it's the Rebels in their way to the play off spots. Drew Mitchell, who got injured against the Reds, won't be playing for a while and despite his attempts, will likely miss the World Cup in september.
The Rebels are a team with ups and downs so far. Beating the Brumbies, falling short against the Reds, overcome this by beating the Hurricanes and scoring 4 tries earlier against the Sharks shows there is enough class in the team to score points. Cooper Vuna is the leading try scorer with 3, Hugh Pyle and Alistair Campbell have scored 2 so far. There are good hopes Stirling Mortlock and Mark Gerrard can form the center pair again and hopefully for the Melbourne side, they can shake off another opponent because a win is highly needed.
The Waratahs and Rebels have each other once. It was the first ever Super Rugby match, the Rebels played. At home, in Melbourne, the Waratahs didn't give them a chance and got away with a 0-43 win. Rebels O'Neill and Robinson got a yellow card and tries for the Tahs were scored by Kurtley Beale (twice), Drew Mitchell (twice), Rob Horne, Phil Waugh and Tatafu Polota-Nau.
______________________________________________________________________________________
Perth is the location where the Force is looking to beat 2 semi finalists in a row after leaving the Bulls emptyhanded last week. The Crusaders are coming to Perth to recover from their loss against the Highlanders in Nelson. With a 26-18 final score, it didn't even leave them a bonus point and losing that match, made them lose the position on the top of the Conference log.
The Western Force come off a win over the Bulls and their mid-season flow can get another boost with the return of David Pocock, Matt Hodgson and Mitch Inman and all 3 are likely to be able to play this weekend. If the Force manage to beat the Crusaders, it will mean a third win in a row for the Blue Brigade. Especially the return of Pocock and Inman will give the squad a boost. They have been out since the 3rd round when they lost to the Sharks at home.
The Crusaders are in a completely different situation. Having lost to the Highlanders, they struggle with injuries. Reuben Thorne, who played 129 Super Rugby matches and is the most capped Crusader. He last played for the Crusaders in 2008 in the team's Super Rugby final victory over the Waratahs at AMI Stadium.
Andy Ellis and Brad Thorn won't be playing in Perth since they are out with serious injuries. Ellis will be out 6 weeks with a dislocated thumb and Thorn has a calf injury which will force him to sit out at least 3 matches. Kieran Read won't be travelling to Perth but is joining the squad when they go to Cape Town to play the Stormers. Dan Carter is back in the mix and will likely be on the bench to save himself for the Stormers clash.
In the short history of the Western Force, they managed to win last year when playing the Crusaders at home. It was 24-16 after 80 minutes and it was the only time they managed to beat them. In the years before that, the Crusaders won twice, of which once in Perth (2008) and 2 other matches ended in a draw (23-23 in both 2006 and 2009).
2010
Western Force 24 - 16 Crusaders
2009 Crusaders 23 - 23 Western Force
2008 Western Force 24 -
29 Crusaders
2007
Crusaders 53 - 0 Western Force
2006 Western Force 23 - 23 Crusaders
* The Western Force only played Super Rugby since 2006
______________________________________________________________________________________
When the Chiefs travel to Pretoria, thoughts will go back to 2009, when they played the Super Rugby final against the Bulls. It was, and still is, the biggest score with which a team has won a Super Rugby final: 61-17. Fourie du Preez (2), Victor Matfield, Wynand Olivier, Pierre Spies and Danie Rossouw scored tries and are still playing for the Bulls today. Bryan Habana, now at the Stormers, also scored 2 tries. With 19 points, Morne Steyn also had a big hand in the win that day.
Today, things are different. The Bulls have struggled this season to find their form which gave them 3 ***les in 4 years. With the likes of Matfield, du Preez, Spies, Steenkamp, Spies and Morne Steyn, things should look better for the Pretoria side, stuck in the middle with 22 points from 9 matches and in 8th position. With a total of 12 points behind the first available wild card for the play offs, things don't look right and the Bulls can look ahead to next year. Frans Ludeke, the Bulls coach, denies that it's over though. With Bjorn Basson, the side does have a good replacement for Bryan Habana but the aging players Matfield, Bakkies Botha, Fourie du Preez and Gürthro Steenkamp seem to be less motivated this year. Can they turn it around and still make the play offs? Can they beat the Chiefs, who they crushed to win the ***le 2 years ago? Dewald Potgieter, Jaco Pretorius, Victor Matfiel (captain) and Francois Hougaard all suffered injuries and are unsure for this weekend. On their tour to the Tasman, they were beaten by the Crusaders 27-0 and the Reds 39-30 before losing last week to the Force in Perth (26-21).
While Matfield and Hougaard are expected to shrug off their injuries in time to face the Chiefs the real concerns are Pretorius and Potgieter. Matfield admitted after the team's fifth loss in nine matches that the Bulls now need to win all of their remaining games if they are to reach the play offs.
The Chiefs have hopes to finally shake off their bad start after a win over the Lions last week. The Chiefs don't show any real weakness in defense with their best match against the Crusaders and also keeping the Sharks from scoring a try earlier (15-9 win in Hamilton). With only 1 point behind the Bulls, they really want to snap up the 4, and maybe 5, points on offer to pass them on the log. The Chiefs reported no serious injury concerns after the Lions clash and will be making a late calls on the availability winger Sitiveni Sivivatu and prop Nathan White who was withdrawn from the match in the final hour.
When we look at the history between the 2 teams, we see that in the latter seasons, the Bulls have the upper hand with 3 wins in 4 seasons but when we go back further, and get to the stage before the Bulls uprising, we see that the Chiefs had an almost guarenteed win over the Northern Transvaal side. From 1998 onwards until 2006 there were only 2 wins for the side from Pretoria. The match in 2006 ended in a 26-26 draw.
2010 Chiefs 19 -
33 Bulls
2009
Bulls 33 - 27 Chiefs
2008
Chiefs 43 - 27 Bulls
2007
Bulls 30 - 27 Chiefs
2006 Chiefs 26 - 26 Bulls
2005
Bulls 28 - 26 Chiefs
2004
Chiefs 24 - 22 Bulls
2003
Bulls 29 - 26 Chiefs
2002
Chiefs 53 - 24 Bulls
2001 Bulls 37 -
49 Chiefs
2000
Chiefs 40 - 7 Bulls
______________________________________________________________________________________
Saturday in Cape Town the 2 best South African teams face each other to determine who will top the Conference at the end of this round. The Sharks from Durban travel to the Westcoast to play the Stormers at Newlands. Earlier this season both played in DUrban and the Stormers managed to win 6-16 with a try from the captain, Schalk Burger. It was the first match back home for the Sharks after a trip across the globe when they played the Crusaders in London at the end of their Tasman Tour.
The Sharks have beaten the Lions and the Hurricanes since their 3 losses in a row, both clinching it with a bonus point. Last weekend they scored 5 tries and conceded 2 but this was also thanks to referee Stuart Dickinson. Patrick Lambie has returned from injury but the Durban faithful are hoping to see Bismarck at hooker again and like to see the long awaited return of Jean Deysel. The flanker has been out of action for almost a year. In the backline there are hopes of tries coming from Lwazi Mvovo and JP Pietersen. Mvovo showed he can still do it after 2 tries last saturday and JP Pietersen has been stronger ever since his return from injury.
In Cape Town, things look different. Sure, the Stormers have only lost once (against the Reds in week 8) but their lack of scoring tries might work against them eventually. They have only scored 12 so far. Their defense however has been rock solid with only 6 conceded tries. In the last couple of weeks they have suffered injuries which had them going for the win without Jean de Villiers, Bryan Habana, Peter Grant and Tiaan Liebenberg. With the injury to Gary van Aswegen, it means Lionel Cronjé will probably be the starting fly-half when they take on the Sharks on Saturday. The Stormers had a bye in round 10 and they should be well-rested. The question is not whether we will see a lot of tries, but the question is if we will see tight defense. With the Sharks and Stormers we see the 2 teams with the best defense. The Sharks have only conceded 12 tries and managed to keep the Force, Chiefs, Lions, Blues and Cheetahs from scoring any try against the Banana Boys in the season. Together with the tight defense comes a strong attack from the Sharks with a total of 26 tries so far (Against the Cheetahs (2), Blues (2), Force (5), Rebels (4), Crusaders (4), Lions (4) and Hurricanes (5) respectively). As mentioned earlier, the Stormers have conceded only 6 and they scored 12 so far (Lions (1), Bulls (1), Force (6), Sharks (1) and Lions (3) respectively). As you can see, only the Lions and the Force conceded more than 1 try in a match.
It will be a cracker and when we look at the history, we see that since the turn of the century, the Sharks have only won twice in Cape Town. This were the 2 most recent times as well (2007 and 2009). Can the Sharks keep this flow going or will the Stormers beat the Sharks twice in a season after their 6-16 win in 4 weeks ago?
2011 Sharks 6 -
16 Stormers
2010
Sharks 20 - 14 Stormers
2009 Stormers 14 -
20 Sharks
2008
Sharks 12 - 10 Stormers
2007 Stormers 10 -
36 Sharks
2006
Sharks 24 - 17 Stormers
2005
Stormers 26 - 12 Sharks
2004 Sharks 24 -
31 Stormers
2003
Stormers 40 - 18 Sharks
2002 Sharks 18 -
25 Stormers
2001
Stormers 39 - 23 Sharks
2000 Sharks 28 -
32 Stormers
