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TRF's Super 15 prediction game




Bye:
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The Blues host the Rebels in Auckland. Can the Blues score another 5 tries against Aussie opposition? Last weekend they crushed the Waratahs in the first half in which they already clinched the bonus point. The Rebels lost at home to the Highlanders but this week Stirling Mortlock is back in the nr. 13 jersey to guide his team. The Blues welcome back Ali Williams after a week in which the world got to know Luke McAlister will be moving to Europe at the end of the year. Blues coach Pat Lam has decided to drop McAli to the bench, giving Stephen Brett a go, while Ali returns to the starting line-up to team up with Anthony Boric in the second row.

The Rebels will welcome back Julian Huxley at fullback with Mark Gerrard moving to outside-center with Mortlock next to him, at inside center. Richard Kingi is on the bench together with Luke Rooney and James Hilgendorf to put some fire in the backline in the second half. The Rebels need to win in Auckland to stay ahead of the Force and Brumbies and maybe catch up with the Waratahs who travel to Brisbane to take on the mighty Reds. Last week they lost after a double win which means they will be fired up to give the Blues a hard time.

No history here of course since the Rebels are in their first season.


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In Nelson the Crusaders take on the surprising Highlanders. The Crusaders got lucky against the Chiefs last week when a knock-on by McCaw, who returned for his first match in 2011, to give them a 4-try victory and get them the bonuspoint. Robbie Fruean also contributed with the first try scored in the first minutes of the game and Sean Maitland has shown he can even outrun Sivivatu and is a real contender for the nr. 14 jersey this september when the All Blacks host the World Cup.

The Otago side managed to score 6 tries against the Rebels in Melbourne and want to make up for the loss against the Saders in Dunedin earlier this season. Adam Thomson is the big man lately with a double against the Rebels and a total of 6 tries already this season. Kade Poki, who was representing the Crusaders for 2 years, is the man to watch this weekend. The winger can literally shake off opponents to score tries. Another dangerous man is Siale Piutau, who also scored 2 tries.

History shows that matches between the 2 sides can really show some surprises. The Highlanders won 6-0 2 years ago at Carisbrook but when the Crusaders play at home, they have shown to be able to crush the Otago side easily with 32-17 (2010), 39-15 (2006) and 46-29 (2004) as examples to show for it. The Highlanders managed to beat the Crusaders in Christchurch in 2008, winning 14-26.

 
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You know what I noticed when writing this? In these last 10 years of Super Rugby, I've seen 6(!) seasons in which the Reds and the Waratahs play each other in the exact same round as the Crusaders take on the Highlanders. Just thought it's worth mentioning. Maybe the people making up the schedule can take this into consideration next year ;)

The Reds have been simply amazing this year. Their only loss was in round 2, against... The Waratahs. The opponents of this weekend thrashed the Reds 30-6 in Sydney and were considered firm favourites to win the Australian Conference. The Reds, since then travelled to South Africa where they beat the Lions and the Stormers and have been unbeaten for 7 matches in a row. The win last weekend over reigning champions The Bulls, was another milestone in the rich season so far. Scoring 6 tries is fantastic, but to do it against the team that has won the championship 3 times in the last 4 years, shows true skills. Digby Ioane and Quade Cooper show the world something special every week which makes the Reds-side a dangerous team for the ***le.

The Waratahs have been struggling lately with a loss in Auckland last week. Their low-point this season came in week 5, when the Cheetahs stole 4 points in Sydney by beating the team 3-23. With Kurtley Beale moving to the Rebels next year they lose a valuable asset, but the Tahs must be very eager to snatch a win to stay close to the Reds for the Conference ***le. Not just that, the Blues and Sharks are likely to expand their lead if they lose which makes it harder for the Tahs to get to the play offs even on wildcard-basis.

History tells us matches in Brisbane are mostly a try fest. Only in 2008 there was a low score with 11-18 but otherwise the matches show at least 30 points for one of the teams. The last win by the Waratahs in Brisbane was last year when they won 28-30. For a Reds win on home soil, we have to go back further, back to 2006 when they won 38-15.

 
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The Western Force... They seem to be a team who struggle to keep their players bound to the franchise. Drew Mitchell moved to the Waratahs in 2010, Ryan Cross did the same a year later while Matt Giteau left the side in 2009 to move back to the Brumbies. Just some names of players who the Force could use in their battle to improve. James O'Connor is the next one in line to move, so it seems. Both the Reds and the Brumbies seem to be serious contenders to sign the utility back. The Justin Bieber look-a-like has a good friendship with Quade Cooper and my money is on the Reds. But where does that leave the Force? This season they are 13th with only 2 wins and a draw. If things don't improve, the Force will never be a serious contender for the play offs. When playing the Bulls this weekend, anything is possible. Having beaten them in 2007 in Pretoria (27-30) and in 2008 in Perth (15-14) it gives them a 40% win rate in 5 matches. Can they do it again and make it 50/50? Last weekend they beat the Brumbies who have to be careful not to end up last in the conference.

The Bulls have been suffering massive losses against the Crusaders, in which they failed to score a single point, and the Reds in which they conceded 6 tries. What can the Pretoria side still do? They are 8 points behind the Sharks, who are in 6th on the overall log. Can they beat the Force and grab that last spot for the play offs still? Or do they lose and focuss on next season? Gurthro Steenkamp, Victor Matfield, Gary Botha, Bakkies Botha and Fourie du Preez all leave the Transvaal franchise at the end of the year. This year the Bulls don't seem to be able to retain their ***le despite the signing of Currie Cup try-scoring recordholder Bjorn Basson from the Griquas. Basson scored 2 tries against the Reds but it wasn't enough. Is it the age of the experienced players? Or are they simply not hungry anymore? Having won 3 ***les since 2007 and several Currie Cups, it seems that they don't feel the need to do it yet again.

History shows the Bulls won 3 and lost 2. In Perth they won the first encounter in 2006 (21-30) and the last one last year (15-28). What will it be this time?



* The Western Force have only been playing Super Rugby since the expansion to 14 teams in 2006.
 
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Sharks-Hurricanes. Now there is a match to look forward to. The Sharks have scored 193 points so far, including bonuspoint wins against the Force, Rebels and Lions and scoring 4 against the Crusaders in London last month. This weekend the Durban side had their bye which gave them time to rest. And they needed it. Having travelled around the world in less than 80 days to play the Force, Rebels, Chiefs and Crusaders (in London) only to come back and face the Stormers at home who haven't left South Africa yet. It was hard. That, with Lambie missing the final 2 matches of the above mentioned, gives some Sharks fans a headache. Lambie is back now though. Having recovered from a broken hand, he will be the starting fly-half again which is good news for the goalkicking of the Sharks. Jacques-Louis Potgieter has been unlucky to say the least in his kicking. Meyer Bosman converted a try against the Lions but got injured shortly after that. With Lambie back, we can at least expect 9 out of 10 kicks to go between the posts, in stead of 2 out of 10. Jean Deysel will not be playing yet. The human wrecking ball is still playing in the Vodacom Cup and Alistair Hargreaves is still injured. Gerhard Mostert will take his place again next to Steven Sykes.

The Hurricanes welcome back Cory Jane, who stayed in New Zealand for the birth of his 3rd child but will now join his team-mates to snatch a victory in Durban. In attack, the Wellington side doesn't need any improvement. Scoring 6 tries in Bloemfontein was superb, conceding 5 however is awful. Despite that, it was their second win this season. Only the second win in 9 rounds! With Conrad Smith and Aaron Cruden out and Piri Weepu still back home, the side really misses some class in the backline. With only 2 points more than the Chiefs they are finally not last in the conference anymore but with the Reds and Blues waiting in Wellington in the next 3 weeks, they need to pick up the pace. In Wellington matches seem to be real crackers with a 13-13 draw in 2008 and a 20-21 win for the Sharks in 2004. The Canes have beaten the Sharks in Durban in 2003 and 2005 but since then, the Sharks have won twice in Durban.

 
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Lions-Chiefs... Now there is a match I want to see becoming a replay of last season. 18 tries in all and a final score of 65-72! The higest score ever in Super Rugby overall, the highest score ever by an away side and the highest score ever by a team clinching a double bonuspoint.

The Lions lost to the Stormers last weekend and this will be their 10th match without having a bye. This is weird since the Stormers and Brumbies have their second bye this week! The Johannesburg side has struggled with conversions and penalties until last week when Burton Francis stepped up and ended the match with the best kicking-average this season so far by a Lions-player. what does this mean for Elton Jantjies and Andre Pretorius? The 20-year old Jantjies is a talent with high potential but hasn't stepped up to the plate yet while Pretorius is showing that experience alone is not enough. Michael Rhodes has been cleared by SANZAR for a dangerous tackle last week and can play. The flanker, who joined the Lions this season after having won the Currie Cup with the Sharks (mainly as a benchwarmer) is likely to start on the bench if Joshua Strauss is fit to play.

The Chiefs travelled to South Africa without their mentor and veteran Tana Umaga. He suffered a calf-injury during a training session which forces him to stay in New Zealand. Jackson Willison will replace the outside center. After losing to the Crusaders and seeing the Hurricanes win in Bloemfontein they are now bottom of the NZ Conference and they hope to grab a win either in Joburg or next week when they move 100 km North to face the Bulls. The Chiefs have been surprising with a win over the Sharks (15-12) but disappointed along the way by losing at home to the Blues. The lowest scoring game between the 2 sides in the last 10 years was in 2006, when there were 37 points between them. Amazing huh? Wait till you see the rest of the results.



* The Lions participated as the Cats before 2006 when they formed a franchise together with the Cheetahs
 
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The Blues played their 3rd consecutive match at home. After beating the Cheetahs and the Waratahs in Auckland, it was now the Rebels' turn to visit Eden Park. The Melbourne side was unlucky and Danny Cipriani showed that he needs to improve drastically on his defensive skills. With 3 tries in quick succession, the Blues showed they're a force to be reckoned with. After a total of 6 tries they ended the match at 40 points, well ahead of the Rebels who got stuck at 23 after 2 tries by Vuna and Mitchell. The Blues got their tries through Ranger (twice), Rokocoko, Stanley, Payne and Braid. The Blues move up to the top of the log with this win after the Crusaders lost to the Highlanders a day later. The Rebels drop to the bottom of their conference despite having won more matches than the Brumbies, who are in 3rd.


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In Nelson, the Highlanders were seeking revenge after their loss to the Crusaders in Dunedin earlier this season. The untouchables from Christchurch seemed not so untouchable this time. Nobody gave the Highlanders a chance with Kade Poki and Adam Thomson out. The Crusaders started off with a Guildford-try to break open the match. Adam Whitelock also crossed the line for a 5-pointer but in the end it wasn't enough. Piutau and Paterson (twice) scored tries for the men from Otago. Tony Brown converted one but added 3 penalties to get the Highlanders to 26 points. The Crusaders only got to 18 with a penalty, conversion and drop goal by Matt Berquist. This means the Crusaders lose out on a bonus point and find themselves in 4th place behind the 3 conference leaders.

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It was the 297th time these teams played each other and many expected a try fest. With Turner, Burgess, Beale, Waugh, Mitchell, Mumm and Polota-Nau the Waratahs had enough players to upset the Reds and get closer to that spot on top of the Conference log. Despite that quality, the Reds managed to keep the Waratahs tryless who lost Drew Mitchell with a serious injury which rules him out for the rest of the season, including the World Cup. After 80 minutes there were only 2 players on the score sheet. Kurtley Beale scored 15 points with 5 penalties and Quade Cooper managed to score 19 with every possible way to score. 1 try, 3 penalties, 1 conversion and 1 drop goal.

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With only 2 wins out of the last 7 matches (Against the Highlanders, Stormers, Lions, Hurricanes, Crusaders, Reds and Force) the Bulls can seriously focus on next year with 12 points behind the wild card spots. In Perth they lost despite scoring more tries. Chiliboy Ralepellle and Bjorn Basson (who else?) passed the try line, Steyn converting only 1. Cameron Shepherd scored the only try for the Blue Brigade from West Australia but James O'Connor and Willie Ripia added 21 points from the kicking tee which gave them the 26-21 win over the 2009 and 2010 Cup winners and saw them move past the Rebels on the log, leaving the Melbourne side with the wooden spoon (for now) in the OZ conference. The Bulls struggle but with their tour behind them and facing the Sharks at least twice they still have a chance but only if they win the remaining 8 matches.

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In Durban the Sharks continued their Super15 campaign after a well-deserved rest last week. The Hurricanes from Wellington hoped to keep their offense at the same level as last week (Scoring 6 tries and 50 points in total) but hoped to improve on their defense (since the Cheetahs scored 47 points and 5 tries). Good news was Cory Jane returning after the birth of his 3rd child. Ironically enough it was Jane who scored the first try when Ma'a Nonu shook off Steven Sykes and gave Jane the ball who only had to run over the line without any opposition. This was all with 1 man short when James Broadhurst was sent off for 10 minutes in the 4th minute. John Smit, who played hooker for the first time since over a year, equalised for the Sharks when he crushed through the defensive lines. With 13-13 at half time, the teams went to the dressing rooms. within a minute the Hurricanes were back on attack when Charl McLeod saw a kick being charged down. Again Nonu made the breakthrough, this time for Faifili Levave to give the points to the Canes. Daniel Kirkpatrick failed to convert the try and left them only 5 points ahead. Meyer Bosman decided to strike back but this try went also unconverted to make it 18-18 and everything to play for. Lwazi Mvovo scored 2 tries of which the second one was an interception inside the Sharks half. Ma'a Nonu got sent off in the 69th minute with a yellow card and that gave the Sharks the space they were looking for. Ryan Kankowski scored a 5th try (his second of the season) and he made it 40-24 which was the final score. The Sharks are steady in 6th on the log with the Tahs and Bulls losing, the Hurricanes drop to the bottom of the conference.

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In Johannesburg it was the match people hoped to turn out into a replay of last season. With a 65-72 final score in 2010 and 9 tries each, it was the highest ever scoring game in Super Rugby. The Lions decided to go for the win and start off like a bolt of lightning but the Chiefs managed to keep their defense solid. Scott Waldrom scored 2 tries in 10 minutes and the Chiefs took a 12-6 lead. Had it not been for a piece of individual brilliance by wing Lionel Mapoe, who set up fullback Michael Killian for the home side's first try of the match, the Lions could have been dead and buried after the first 40 minutes. Graham, Smith and Sweeney scored tries for the Chiefs afterwards, Joshua Strauss and Cobus Grobbelaar scored tries for the Lions. With a couple of minutes to go, it was 30-31 but with a scored penalty by Donald, the Chiefs got a 4 point lead which they didn't give away. The Chiefs pass the Hurricanes on the log and the Lions are still bottom.


In the prediction game, it was a disappointing round. Only 6 contenders managed to earn double numbers of which Ezequiel scored the highest total: 23 points. Runner up this week is Olyy who had 17 points which keeps him in second on the log. TNT88 climbed from 7th to 5th on the log with his 11 points. Gavin (who has been AWOL for weeks but gave me predictions to go with for weeks) and Draggs scored 14 points which keeps Draggs in 4th but brings him 2 points closer to nr. 3 darwin_23.



Green = Log Leader
Red = Wooden Spoon
Blue = Best achievement this round


The Log:

 
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The first match this weekend is between the Auckland Blues and the Otago Highlanders. North vs. South. The Highlanders travel back from Nelson with 4 points in the bag after beating the Crusaders last weekend. Because of their win, they are only 1 point behind the Crusaders now and the Blues have taken over the position on top of the Conference with a win last week. Can the Highlanders beat 2 conference leaders in a row? All will depend on their ability to act as a team like last weekend when they were without Kade Poki and Adam Thomson. Tony Brown has stepped up as replacement fly-half for the Highlanders last week. The 36-year old, who also played Super Rugby for the Sharks and Stormers, scored 11 points from the kicking tee against the Crusaders and was also important for the win over the reigning champions the Bulls. For the match with the Blues it seems that Adam Thomson, Jimmy Cowan and Alando Soakai will be back from injury.

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In the Blues squad, all eyes will be on Rene Ranger. The winger has scored 6 tries so far this season and together with Jared Payne (who scored 5) he is the main reason the Blues are on top of the Conference. Tony Woodcock is probably the only issue from the Blues side which is a good thing, knowing they will miss Charlie Faumuina, Brad Mika, Liaki Moli and Daniel Braid already through injury. Tevita Mailau will replace Woodcock in the front-row.

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Blues coach Pat Lam and Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph played their rugby through a similar era and they have stayed in touch and Lam thinks that both coaches will have a fair idea of the other's approach and tactics. It will be an exciting match to watch that can go either way.

In recent years, the Blues have mainly won the matches between the 2. The last time the Highlanders won, was in 2006, when they beat the Auckland side 26-13. In 2003, the Otago side managed to be the only team in the competition to beat the Blues that year, who went on to win the Super12 ***le. In Dunedin, the Blues came short 22-11 which denied them the possibility to win the trophy unbeaten, an achievement they reached only in 1997.



2010 Highlanders 15 - 19 Blues
2009 Blues 26 - 6 Highlanders
2008 Highlanders 15 - 40 Blues
2007 Blues 28 - 9 Highlanders
2006 Highlanders 26 - 13 Blues
2005 Highlanders 14 - 30 Blues
2004 Blues 50 - 22 Highlanders
2003 Highlanders 22 - 11 Blues
2002 Blues 13 - 20 Highlanders
2001 Highlanders 23 - 8 Blues
2000 Blues 26 - 16 Highlanders

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The Cheetahs and Brumbies play each other in Bloemfontein which is the first of the 2 matches the Brumbies will play in South Africa. Next week they meet the Sharks and with that, they travel the exact same route the Hurricanes did. For the Canes it brought them 10 conceded tries in 2 matches and the Brumbies hope they can do better defensively. The Canberra side is losing Adam Ashley-Cooper at the end of the season which means a serious blow to the squad, knowing also Matt Giteau is leaving for Europe at the end of the World Cup. With only 2 wins in the season so far, it hasn't been the best start the team from Canberra could have hoped for.

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With only 165 points scored, they are the least scoring side in the competition, with even the Force, Rebels, Lions and Cheetahs scoring more. Can they recover in Bloemfontein and get back on track? A lot will depend on Matt Giteau and Pat McCabe. The Brumbies, who will probably be coached by Jake White next year, need to win if they want to grab the final straw towards the play offs. A bonus point win will bring them to 26 points and only a 5 point-win will do.

How different are things for the Cheetahs. They lost 47-50 in the most thrilling match so far in 2011. 11 tries between them and the Hurricanes and only 20 seconds away from a win 2 weeks ago, the Cheetahs want to strike back and this time win. They only managed to beat the Waratahs, in Sydney, but have snatched up 7 bonus points including 2 in the loss to the Canes 2 weeks ago. Big man on the Cheetahs side is Sarel Pretorius. The 27-year old has clubs chasing him from New Zealand, Australia and even France. With his contract expiring this year, things look good for the scrum half who is contracted to the Griquas from Kimberley.

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Last week he scored a hat-trick and it brought him to a total of 6 tries already this season. The good play by Pretorius is hiding the fact that the Cheetahs are missing some key players. Andries Strauss, his cousin Adriaan Strauss, Juan Smith and Heinrich Brussow have all missed several matches. Adriaan Strauss made his comeback last week as a sub and Brussow might be fit to play but the loss of Juan Smith is a severe loss to the franchise.

History shows that matches never end on a low point. There is always something to look forward to when these 2 teams play each other. Ever since the Cheetahs formed their own franchise in 2006 and seperated from the Lions (with whom they formed the Cats previously), they have beaten the Brumbies only in 2007. This was a match where there were 5 tries scored by the Cheetahs (Falie Oelschig, Gavin Passens, Richardt Strauss, Phillip Burger and Juan Smith) which were all converted by Willem de Waal (later Stormers and now playing for Benneton Treviso).

The biggest win for the Brumbies against the Cheetahs was last year when they managed to beat them 61-15 with tries by Ben Alexander, Stephen Hoiles, Patrick Phibbs, Tyrone Smith, Rocky Elsom, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Matt Toomua and Alfi Mafi.

As the Cats, they have suffered bigger losses in 2002 (64-16) and 2000 (64-0).


2010 Brumbies 61 - 15 Cheetahs
2009 Cheetahs 27 - 40 Brumbies
2008 Brumbies 29 - 23 Cheetahs
2007 Cheetahs 38 - 20 Brumbies
2006 Brumbies 53 - 20 Cheetahs
2005 Cats 29 - 34 Brumbies
2004 Brumbies 68 - 28 Cats
2003 Cats 34 - 32 Brumbies
2002 Brumbies 64 - 16 Cats
2001 Cats 17 - 19 Brumbies
2000 Brumbies 64 - 0 Cats

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In Wellington the Reds look to extend their winning streak to 8 when they take on the Hurricanes. The Brisbane side have only lost in round 2 and have been topping the overall Log for quite some time now. Last week they finally managed to beat the Waratahs 19-15 but it was at a price. Rod Davies, Digby Ioane, James Slipper and Ben Daley all ended the day with an injury. Reds coach Ewen McKenzie is however confident that he has enough depth to cover the losses at prop and wing.

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The Hurricanes have to get back to their tight defense. In the last 2 matches they conceded a total of 10 tries. Now, back at home for the first time since the start of the month (round 7) they will want to bounce back and keep the Reds from scoring. Doing so will be hard enough because the Reds are on fire. Scoring 6 tries against the Bulls and winning both their tour matches in South Africa (against the Lions and Stormers) shows they are ready to take on any opponent. The Hurricanes will be their first opponent across the ditch and will be a match that has to be taken seriously. The Hurricanes miss Conrad Smith, Aaron Cruden and Piri Weepu among others but hope their backline with among others Gear, Nonu and Jane will be able to hurt the Reds defense.

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History doesn't show good fortune for the Reds. The last time the Queensland side managed to win in Wellington was back in 1998 when their triumph was well deserved with a 33-41 win. The only other time they won in Wellington was in the inaugural season when they won 25-32. Since the turn of the century, the Reds came close in 2006 when they lost by 4 points and 2008 when the difference was only 5. The biggest win by the Hurricanes on the Reds was last year when they won 44-21.


2010 Hurricanes 44 - Reds 21
2009 Reds 28 - Hurricanes 37
2008 Hurricanes 23 - Reds 18
2007 Reds 15 - Hurricanes 26
2006 Hurricanes 26 - Reds 22
2005 Reds 10 - Hurricanes 24
2004 Hurricanes 29 - Reds 12
2003 Reds 23 - Hurricanes 26
2002 Hurricanes 22 - Reds 18
2001 Reds 27 - Hurricanes 18
2000 Hurricanes 43 - Reds 25

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The Waratahs have not taken the chance to get back to the top of the conference or even close to it. With the loss against the Reds last weekend, they are 11 points behind the Queensland rivals. The difference with the lowest wild card teams (Highlanders and Sharks) is 6 points. When they take on the Rebels on saturday, it will be their first match back in Sydney after travelling to Perth, Auckland and Brisbane these last 3 weeks. Only against the Western Force, they managed to win, but in the match against the color-teams (Blues and Reds) they fell short.

The match against the Rebels will be the first of 3 consecutive matches at the Sydney Football Stadium, with a bye in between before they travel to South Africa and take on the Sharks and the Bulls. In these matches it's unlikely they will snatch up 10 points so most will depend on the 3 matches back home. The Force and the Lions await them later, but now it's the Rebels in their way to the play off spots. Drew Mitchell, who got injured against the Reds, won't be playing for a while and despite his attempts, will likely miss the World Cup in september.

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The Rebels are a team with ups and downs so far. Beating the Brumbies, falling short against the Reds, overcome this by beating the Hurricanes and scoring 4 tries earlier against the Sharks shows there is enough class in the team to score points. Cooper Vuna is the leading try scorer with 3, Hugh Pyle and Alistair Campbell have scored 2 so far. There are good hopes Stirling Mortlock and Mark Gerrard can form the center pair again and hopefully for the Melbourne side, they can shake off another opponent because a win is highly needed.

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The Waratahs and Rebels have each other once. It was the first ever Super Rugby match, the Rebels played. At home, in Melbourne, the Waratahs didn't give them a chance and got away with a 0-43 win. Rebels O'Neill and Robinson got a yellow card and tries for the Tahs were scored by Kurtley Beale (twice), Drew Mitchell (twice), Rob Horne, Phil Waugh and Tatafu Polota-Nau.

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Perth is the location where the Force is looking to beat 2 semi finalists in a row after leaving the Bulls emptyhanded last week. The Crusaders are coming to Perth to recover from their loss against the Highlanders in Nelson. With a 26-18 final score, it didn't even leave them a bonus point and losing that match, made them lose the position on the top of the Conference log.

The Western Force come off a win over the Bulls and their mid-season flow can get another boost with the return of David Pocock, Matt Hodgson and Mitch Inman and all 3 are likely to be able to play this weekend. If the Force manage to beat the Crusaders, it will mean a third win in a row for the Blue Brigade. Especially the return of Pocock and Inman will give the squad a boost. They have been out since the 3rd round when they lost to the Sharks at home.

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The Crusaders are in a completely different situation. Having lost to the Highlanders, they struggle with injuries. Reuben Thorne, who played 129 Super Rugby matches and is the most capped Crusader. He last played for the Crusaders in 2008 in the team's Super Rugby final victory over the Waratahs at AMI Stadium.

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Andy Ellis and Brad Thorn won't be playing in Perth since they are out with serious injuries. Ellis will be out 6 weeks with a dislocated thumb and Thorn has a calf injury which will force him to sit out at least 3 matches. Kieran Read won't be travelling to Perth but is joining the squad when they go to Cape Town to play the Stormers. Dan Carter is back in the mix and will likely be on the bench to save himself for the Stormers clash.

In the short history of the Western Force, they managed to win last year when playing the Crusaders at home. It was 24-16 after 80 minutes and it was the only time they managed to beat them. In the years before that, the Crusaders won twice, of which once in Perth (2008) and 2 other matches ended in a draw (23-23 in both 2006 and 2009).


2010 Western Force 24 - 16 Crusaders
2009 Crusaders 23 - 23 Western Force
2008 Western Force 24 - 29 Crusaders
2007 Crusaders 53 - 0 Western Force
2006 Western Force 23 - 23 Crusaders


* The Western Force only played Super Rugby since 2006

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When the Chiefs travel to Pretoria, thoughts will go back to 2009, when they played the Super Rugby final against the Bulls. It was, and still is, the biggest score with which a team has won a Super Rugby final: 61-17. Fourie du Preez (2), Victor Matfield, Wynand Olivier, Pierre Spies and Danie Rossouw scored tries and are still playing for the Bulls today. Bryan Habana, now at the Stormers, also scored 2 tries. With 19 points, Morne Steyn also had a big hand in the win that day.

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Today, things are different. The Bulls have struggled this season to find their form which gave them 3 ***les in 4 years. With the likes of Matfield, du Preez, Spies, Steenkamp, Spies and Morne Steyn, things should look better for the Pretoria side, stuck in the middle with 22 points from 9 matches and in 8th position. With a total of 12 points behind the first available wild card for the play offs, things don't look right and the Bulls can look ahead to next year. Frans Ludeke, the Bulls coach, denies that it's over though. With Bjorn Basson, the side does have a good replacement for Bryan Habana but the aging players Matfield, Bakkies Botha, Fourie du Preez and Gürthro Steenkamp seem to be less motivated this year. Can they turn it around and still make the play offs? Can they beat the Chiefs, who they crushed to win the ***le 2 years ago? Dewald Potgieter, Jaco Pretorius, Victor Matfiel (captain) and Francois Hougaard all suffered injuries and are unsure for this weekend. On their tour to the Tasman, they were beaten by the Crusaders 27-0 and the Reds 39-30 before losing last week to the Force in Perth (26-21).

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While Matfield and Hougaard are expected to shrug off their injuries in time to face the Chiefs the real concerns are Pretorius and Potgieter. Matfield admitted after the team's fifth loss in nine matches that the Bulls now need to win all of their remaining games if they are to reach the play offs.

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The Chiefs have hopes to finally shake off their bad start after a win over the Lions last week. The Chiefs don't show any real weakness in defense with their best match against the Crusaders and also keeping the Sharks from scoring a try earlier (15-9 win in Hamilton). With only 1 point behind the Bulls, they really want to snap up the 4, and maybe 5, points on offer to pass them on the log. The Chiefs reported no serious injury concerns after the Lions clash and will be making a late calls on the availability winger Sitiveni Sivivatu and prop Nathan White who was withdrawn from the match in the final hour.

When we look at the history between the 2 teams, we see that in the latter seasons, the Bulls have the upper hand with 3 wins in 4 seasons but when we go back further, and get to the stage before the Bulls uprising, we see that the Chiefs had an almost guarenteed win over the Northern Transvaal side. From 1998 onwards until 2006 there were only 2 wins for the side from Pretoria. The match in 2006 ended in a 26-26 draw.


2010 Chiefs 19 - 33 Bulls
2009 Bulls 33 - 27 Chiefs
2008 Chiefs 43 - 27 Bulls
2007 Bulls 30 - 27 Chiefs
2006 Chiefs 26 - 26 Bulls
2005 Bulls 28 - 26 Chiefs
2004 Chiefs 24 - 22 Bulls
2003 Bulls 29 - 26 Chiefs
2002 Chiefs 53 - 24 Bulls
2001 Bulls 37 - 49 Chiefs
2000 Chiefs 40 - 7 Bulls

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Saturday in Cape Town the 2 best South African teams face each other to determine who will top the Conference at the end of this round. The Sharks from Durban travel to the Westcoast to play the Stormers at Newlands. Earlier this season both played in DUrban and the Stormers managed to win 6-16 with a try from the captain, Schalk Burger. It was the first match back home for the Sharks after a trip across the globe when they played the Crusaders in London at the end of their Tasman Tour.

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The Sharks have beaten the Lions and the Hurricanes since their 3 losses in a row, both clinching it with a bonus point. Last weekend they scored 5 tries and conceded 2 but this was also thanks to referee Stuart Dickinson. Patrick Lambie has returned from injury but the Durban faithful are hoping to see Bismarck at hooker again and like to see the long awaited return of Jean Deysel. The flanker has been out of action for almost a year. In the backline there are hopes of tries coming from Lwazi Mvovo and JP Pietersen. Mvovo showed he can still do it after 2 tries last saturday and JP Pietersen has been stronger ever since his return from injury.

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In Cape Town, things look different. Sure, the Stormers have only lost once (against the Reds in week 8) but their lack of scoring tries might work against them eventually. They have only scored 12 so far. Their defense however has been rock solid with only 6 conceded tries. In the last couple of weeks they have suffered injuries which had them going for the win without Jean de Villiers, Bryan Habana, Peter Grant and Tiaan Liebenberg. With the injury to Gary van Aswegen, it means Lionel Cronjé will probably be the starting fly-half when they take on the Sharks on Saturday. The Stormers had a bye in round 10 and they should be well-rested. The question is not whether we will see a lot of tries, but the question is if we will see tight defense. With the Sharks and Stormers we see the 2 teams with the best defense. The Sharks have only conceded 12 tries and managed to keep the Force, Chiefs, Lions, Blues and Cheetahs from scoring any try against the Banana Boys in the season. Together with the tight defense comes a strong attack from the Sharks with a total of 26 tries so far (Against the Cheetahs (2), Blues (2), Force (5), Rebels (4), Crusaders (4), Lions (4) and Hurricanes (5) respectively). As mentioned earlier, the Stormers have conceded only 6 and they scored 12 so far (Lions (1), Bulls (1), Force (6), Sharks (1) and Lions (3) respectively). As you can see, only the Lions and the Force conceded more than 1 try in a match.

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It will be a cracker and when we look at the history, we see that since the turn of the century, the Sharks have only won twice in Cape Town. This were the 2 most recent times as well (2007 and 2009). Can the Sharks keep this flow going or will the Stormers beat the Sharks twice in a season after their 6-16 win in 4 weeks ago?




2011 Sharks 6 - 16 Stormers
2010 Sharks 20 - 14 Stormers
2009 Stormers 14 - 20 Sharks
2008 Sharks 12 - 10 Stormers
2007 Stormers 10 - 36 Sharks
2006 Sharks 24 - 17 Stormers
2005 Stormers 26 - 12 Sharks
2004 Sharks 24 - 31 Stormers
2003 Stormers 40 - 18 Sharks
2002 Sharks 18 - 25 Stormers
2001 Stormers 39 - 23 Sharks
2000 Sharks 28 - 32 Stormers
 
It was a disappointing week in the prediction league guys. Only 2 people got more than 20 points. The best score this week was for Shaggy, who, after 4 disappointing rounds, got back to his old form and got to 22 points, which is the highest this week. Unfortunately, nobody had a perfect winners-prediction, with darwin_23, Bogdam, Amobokoboko and Ezequiel getting to 6.

Our Belgian Maori with the Springbok name, Amobokoboko, scored an incredible 15 points in the try prediction, predicting the try score of 5 teams in total! On top of the log, nothing really changed. Ezequiel got 1 point more than Olyy (12 over 11) and the lead is now 13 points.

darwin_23 is still in 3rd place despite his low score of 9. Shaggy climbes to 4th place, overtaking Draggs, who is tied at 151 points with 3 other guys! TNT88, BadGena and stormer2010 all have 151 and that brings some fierce rivalry with it.



Green = Log Leader
Red = Wooden Spoon
Blue = Best achievement this round

The Log:

 

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