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June International Tests: South Africa vs. France (1st Test) (10/06/2017)

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Venue: Loftus Versfeld
Time: 17:00 (CAT, SA GMT+2)
Teams

South Africa:
15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Raymond Rhule, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Oupa Mohoje, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Tendai Mtawarira

Substitutes: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Coenie Oosthuizen, 19 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 20 Jean-Luc du Preez, 21 Francois Hougaard, 22 Frans Steyn, 23 Dillyn Leyds


France: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Yoann Huget, 13 Henry Chavancy, 12 Gaël Fickou, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 Jules Plisson, 9 Maxime Machenaud, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Loann Goujon, 6 Yacouba Camara, 5 Yoann Maestri (captain), 4 Julien le Devedec, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Clément Maynadier, 1 Jefferson Poirot

Substitutes: 16 Camille Chat, 17 Eddy Ben Arous, 18 Mohamed Boughanmi, 19 Bernard le Roux, 20 Kévin Gourdon, 21 Baptiste Serin, 22 Jean-Marc Doussain, 23 Vincent Rattez




 
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"Duane Vermeulen and
Damian de Allende have been ruled out of the first Test against France in Pretoria on Saturday.
The news was confirmed by SA Rugby on Monday, who said that both players would not be considered because of injury." Mapoe is said to be "doubtful"
 
Lopez out for France. Not sure if that is good or bad for them. Amazing how they struggle at 10.
 
It's good for him. He needs a break. He just won the Top 14 after a cracking season.

Struggle at 10? Lopez finished best kicker in last 6N ahead of Farrell and Halfpenny. Not bad if he's struggling.

Edit: just looked up his stats. He played 32 games - 25 for club, 7 for France. When I said he needs a break...
 
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Lopez looked alright during the 6N to me but I did not find myself watching thinking "here is the future of France". Trina-duc is probably my favourite over the years and he hasn't been much better than solid. Plisson has been poor in a French shirt for me.
 
I'm sold on Lopez. Think he's grown in stature big time this season with Clermont - he was very influential in both comps for them. He outshone Carter in the T14 semi and Sexton in the CCup semi.

You look at our 10 as the playmaker but that's where you're wrong. Traditionally our playmaker is our 9.

Noves needs to recall an experienced playmaker like Parra who can direct the game. Serin has not managed to fill that role because he's too inexperienced. That's where the lack of leadership and direction we saw in 6N come from.

I like the spring cleaning Noves has initiated in the group since he took over. But now he needs find some balance with an experienced 9 - younger guys like Serin and Dupont are talented but need time to develop. So there is room for Parra and Machenaud at 9 depending who is more in form. We're blessed with a lot of depth at 9 but somehow Noves hasn't used as well as he could have.

I disagree on Trinh Duc. Think he's past it. At 30 he fits even less your criteria of 'future of France'. He's the 10 we don't need IMO. Been struggling for game time at TOulon and that does not work in his favour and is prone to injuries more so than before. Anthony Belleau will be first choice ahead of him next season.
 
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I'm sold on Lopez. Think he's grown in stature big time this season with Clermont - he was very influential in both comps for them. He outshone Carter in the T14 semi and Sexton in the CCup semi.

You look at our 10 as the playmaker but that's where you're wrong. Traditionally our playmaker is our 9.

Noves needs to recall an experienced playmaker like Parra who can direct the game. Serin has not managed to fill that role because he's too inexperienced. That's where the lack of leadership and direction we saw in 6N come from.

I like the spring cleaning Noves has initiated in the group since he took over. But now he needs find some balance with an experienced 9 - younger guys like Serin and Dupont are talented but need time to develop. So there is room for Parra and Machenaud at 9 depending who is more in form. We're blessed with a lot of depth at 9 but somehow Noves hasn't used as well as he could have.

I disagree on Trinh Duc. Think he's past it. At 30 he fits even less your criteria of 'future of France'. He's the 10 we don't need IMO. Been struggling for game time at TOulon and that does not work in his favour and is prone to injuries more so than before. Anthony Belleau will be first choice ahead of him next season.
Parra played very well in the Top 14 final that guys seriously put his body on the line. I know people say that phrase often but as a small scrum halve he was making steals and getting destroyed by the big Toulon players. Trinh Duc made some mistakes but he also showed great commitment to the cause and you have to admire that. I think he will be a great replacement to Lopez (don't know if he has been called up). It's a shame the top 14 final is so close to the test series. Especially for the French this really shortens the time the national team spends together. Our old Springbok coach Meyer was asked by a journalist if he was going to rest some players for the next game and he said that players should be managed at club level not national level so why does Lopez prioritize his club over his country ? He should have made sure he is ready to play for France when they need him not for the club that pays him so well.
 
Another season of Bok rugby begins and despite our woeful season last year that cruel wench hope has me firmly by the balls again.

Hopefully, AC has learned from his mistakes a bit last season, or maybe he will be forced into playing a better brand of rugby because most of the unions are or maybe he has better assistants this year so the team will perform better.

Whatever the case may be there are enough reasons to be optimistic even if I'm sure they'll all prove to be wrong.

I know nothing about French rugby really, but I see they are ahead of us in the IRB rankings which comes as no surprise. Since we play at home if we lose a single test I fear we will slip even more in the rankings so really we should be aiming for a clean sweep however unlikely that may be.

As for the team, I fully expect more Lions to be selected, considering the squad and injuries we will most likely see:

1. Tenda Mtawarira
2. Malcom Marx
3. Ruan Dreyer? (Malherbe)
4. Eben Etsebeth
5. Psdt? (Mostert)
6. Jaco Kriel
7. Siya Kolisi
8. Warren Whiteley
9. Ross Cronje ? (Hougard)
10. Elton Jantjies
11. Courtnall Skosan
12. Jan Serfontein
13. Kriel? (Am)
14. Dillyn Leyds
15. Andries Coetzee

16. Bongi Mbonamb
17. Steven Kitsoff
18. Frans Malherbe
19. Franco Mostert
20. Oupa Mahoje
21. Hougard/Cronje
22. Frans Steyn
23. Am/Kriel

Note this is obviously the team I think we will get based on the squad and not the team I would like.
There are a lot of variables that I'm not sure of namely:
- The Front row could be different, specifically tighthead.
- Mostert could start either pushing PsdT to the bench or even to 7.
- Hougard could start but I will back the combination and say it will probably be Ross Cronje
- Outside centre could be AM, and that could either push Kriel to FB or to the bench.
 
Well, based on the early news reports, there are a few hints of how the team might look. Duane Vermeulen, Lionel Mapoe and Damian De Allende have been ruled out. I also think that AC will have a few debutants starting to get that out of the way.

Here's what I think the team will look like:

1. Lizo Gqoboka
2. Malcolm Marx
3. Coenie Oosthuizen
4. PSDT
5. Eben Etzebeth
6. Jaco Kriel
7. Teboho Mohoje
8. Warren Whiteley

9. Ross Cronje
10. Elton Jantjies
11. Dyllan Leyds
12. Jan Serfontein
13. Lukhanyo Am
14. Courtnal Skosan
15. Andries Coetzee

16. Chilliboy Ralepelle
17. Steven Kitshoff
18. Ruan Dreyer
19. Lood De Jager
20. Siya Kolisi
21. Francois Hougaard
22. Frans Steyn
23. Jesse Kriel

I think with Kolisi, Hougie, Steyn and Kriel on the bench we have enough versatility to cover every position properly.
 
I believe Am is injured. Mapoe has also been confirmed injured and won't be selected
Ok well, that pretty much forces us to play Kriel at 13, unless AC wants to start Steyn at 12. Anyway, I'm less hopeful today since AC has started going on about paying the French the necessary respect and not trying any fancy styles that won't work in international rugby...
 
A must-win at all costs for AC or else he gets the axe, so he will opt for experience where he can (forwards) and in midfield (backs), but will most likely hand debuts in the back three positions based on the squad.

1. Mtawarira
2. Marx
3. Malherbe
4. Etzebeth
5. PSDT
6. Kriel
7. Mohoje
8. Whiteley
9. Hougaard
10. Jantjies
11. Skosan
12. Serfontein
13. Kriel
14. Leyds
15. Coetzee

16. Mbonambi
17. Oosthuizen
18. Dreyer
19. Mostert
20. Kolisi
21. Cronje
22. Steyn
23. Rhule
 
Duane Vermeulen has been ruled out of series due to his shoulder injury sustained in the Top 14 final.
 
I know nothing about French rugby really, but I see they are ahead of us in the IRB rankings which comes as no surprise. Since we play at home if we lose a single test I fear we will slip even more in the rankings so really we should be aiming for a clean sweep however unlikely that may be.

winning 2/3 would be enough for SA to finish the tour with more RP than they start it, as long as they don't lose by 15+.
If the 3rd test is one of the two that they win, or if one of the victories is with a 15+ margin, it would even be enough to finish the tour ahead of France in the rankings.

Naturally, a French whitewash would be costly and likely leave SA ranked below Argentina
 
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My main concern for us is at center. Pity about Mapoe and Am, I am not overly keen on Serfontein and Kriel who I feel are playing one-dimensionally. With RjvR, Mapoe and Am out and Vorster and Venter not in the mix we are stuck though. Esterhuizen is suspended, F Steyn is an unknown factor and De Allende has looked well off the pace coming back from long injury lay-off. Serfontein and Kriel it is I suppose.

I'd have Kolisi in at 7 ahead of Mohoje personally. Other than that the team pretty much selects itself though I do expect a few eyebrow raisers as ever and the prop positions are up for grabs.
 
My main concern for us is at center. Pity about Mapoe and Am, I am not overly keen on Serfontein and Kriel who I feel are playing one-dimensionally. With RjvR, Mapoe and Am out and Vorster and Venter not in the mix we are stuck though. Esterhuizen is suspended, F Steyn is an unknown factor and De Allende has looked well off the pace coming back from long injury lay-off. Serfontein and Kriel it is I suppose.

I'd have Kolisi in at 7 ahead of Mohoje personally. Other than that the team pretty much selects itself though I do expect a few eyebrow raisers as ever and the prop positions are up for grabs.

I think that is a bit of an unfair assessment on Serfontein. He was injured for the majority of the season so far, and only played off the bench the last 5 games for the Bulls. But when he played, he was the standout player, and looked like the Jan of old.

So far 40000 tickets have been sold for Saturday and I hope they will all pitch up. But with this massive storm hitting Cape Town today, I wonder how the weather will act up by Saturday for the game.
 
I suppose we'll have to wait and see firstly for the line-ups tomorrow and then how the team actually goes. I can't say I feel confident predicting either. Serfontein will have to pitch up for a full game to get me on board.

On the weather I believe it should have passed by Saturday but man, its heavy right now. 2 of 3 roads out from where I live are blocked by rather large trees having been blown over in my suburb. Other than some of the more tropical trees in my garden being leafless now I have no personal damage thankfully. There are two large Pecan nut trees which hang over my house and the other my driveway that I were concerned about but they seem to be managing well enough.
 
France are excellent in bad conditions. They nilled the Pumas in Argentina in such conditions.
 
France are excellent in bad conditions. They nilled the Pumas in Argentina in such conditions.

That is my concern for our games in the coastal regions. We should have a decent tight 5 but our backrow will be a lot lighter than in previous years;

Jaco Kriel (though a monster if he has space to pick up) gives away 17kgs to Francois Louw while Kolisi gives away 15kgs to Alberts and Whiteley 14kgs to Vermeulen. That is a staggering 46kgs lighter from one generation to the next in the backrow alone.

If we are looking at the backs the story looks somewhat similar even if not as dire. As much as I disliked F Steyn at least between him, Jaque Fourie, JdV and JP Petersen we had some mass in the backs that suited our approach to the game in general.

Now, I am not all about the mass but we won't be making use of superior speed, tactics or skill under AC so mass would've done nicely. I expect the line-outs and scrums to be even enough but we are going to be outmuscled at the ruck and around the fringes I expect.

With my mind on weight and having had a look at a few fella's (on Wikipedia admittedly). if SA were to have the likes of Louw, Alberts and Vermeulen available if we could see our in form props there despite their youth SA could put forward a team close to the 1-ton scrum I am waiting for;
T du Toit, M Marx, W Louw, P Willemse, PS du Toit, F Louw, W Alberts, D Vermeulen = 997kg according to Wikipedia (sure, I threw P Willemse in there purely for the 135kg which is a decent amount more than Etzebeth). Hold a lekker braai the night before and we could SA's pack weigh in at 1000kg- lets do it!!
 
He should have made sure he is ready to play for France when they need him not for the club that pays him so well.

He did - he played all games in AI+6N. He also wants to win trophies with his club. It's not all about money.
 

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