Is the 2021 Lions Tour Doomed?

[RedruthRFC]

It's not a crazy idea at all. I've called the scenario that I've presented the worst case - I was wrong, this is the worst, worst case scenario, but again, one that needs to be considered. Again, I can't see why it couldn't make money. I wouldn't get too hung up on the crowd revenue though - the KO times that maximise TV revenues would minimise live audiences.

 

[munstermuffin]

So are you saying that they don't have the funds needed to fund a behind closed doors series, or that if it's the only viable option, they would somehow be better off by doing nothing rather than recouping some of this money?

More they don't have the fund that would be required to refund sponsors who have ploughed money in already. Lets remember they have spent a lot of money they don't own already.

 

[TommiG88]

It's not a crazy idea at all. I've called the scenario that I've presented the worst case - I was wrong, this is the worst, worst case scenario, but again, one that needs to be considered. Again, I can't see why it couldn't make money. I wouldn't get too hung up on the crowd revenue though - the KO times that maximise TV revenues would minimise live audiences.

I really think you're under estimating how much crowd revenue is. Just alone with the Lions fans. Let's say 40k people go out there in total and spend an average of £2000 (inc merch, tickets, food, drink, accommodation) then you're getting towards £100m.
That's not taking into account the South African fans.

 

[TRF_heineken]

I really think you're under estimating how much crowd revenue is. Just alone with the Lions fans. Let's say 40k people go out there in total and spend an average of £2000 (inc merch, tickets, food, drink, accommodation) then you're getting towards £100m.
That's not taking into account the South African fans.

It's much bigger than that!

Our tourism, which is one of our biggest sources of income will take a massive knock (it's already taking a massive knock due to the pandemic and not having overseas tourists). Trips to the game farms, national parks, heritage sites etc. The etimation of this tour would generate about a Billion Rand in revenue...

 

[mdaclarke]

It's much bigger than that!

Our tourism, which is one of our biggest sources of income will take a massive knock (it's already taking a massive knock due to the pandemic and not having overseas tourists). Trips to the game farms, national parks, heritage sites etc. The etimation of this tour would generate about a Billion Rand in revenue...

Boris Johnson vows lifting lockdown won't be 'open sesame moment' after February 15 & will come 'gradually'

BORIS Johnson has vowed lifting lockdown won’t be a “great bang moment” after February 15 and it will only be a “gradual” reopening of the country. The PM said ministe…

www.thesun.co.uk

I think things are looking positive in the UK. The Vaccines are running at pace. Therefore by July we should be out of lockdown. Hopefully South Africa will be in a good place by then and the tour can go ahead

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I think things are looking positive in the UK. The Vaccines are running at pace. Therefore by July we should be out of lockdown. Hopefully South Africa will be in a good place by then and the tour can go ahead

Seems unlikely,
The South African government are hoping to have 20millions doses (so 10million vaccinated) by end of June/July - but this has been written off as infeasible, and they've only got 12m doses on order (by comparison the UK had 130m doses on order by last December)

 

[TommiG88]

I really would like to know sooner rather than later so I can start looking at booking myself another holiday.

 

[munstermuffin]

Boris Johnson vows lifting lockdown won't be 'open sesame moment' after February 15 & will come 'gradually'

BORIS Johnson has vowed lifting lockdown won’t be a “great bang moment” after February 15 and it will only be a “gradual” reopening of the country. The PM said ministe…

www.thesun.co.uk

I think things are looking positive in the UK. The Vaccines are running at pace. Therefore by July we should be out of lockdown. Hopefully South Africa will be in a good place by then and the tour can go ahead

Issue is they need to be allowed freely in to SA and well all need to be vaccinated. Predictions often differ to actual in these cases.

 

[ncurd]

Out of 'lockdown' and lowering of general social distancing restrictions are different things. Also allowing fans into full stadiums is at the very end of the list of things that will be allowed. (Possibly indoor Arena style events and conferences will be after).

I honestly have no idea why you guys think if its going to happen this year any government would allow fans from a foreign country.

EDIT: Litreally no other sport is contemplating it.

 

[RedruthRFC]

I really think you're under estimating how much crowd revenue is. Just alone with the Lions fans. Let's say 40k people go out there in total and spend an average of £2000 (inc merch, tickets, food, drink, accommodation) then you're getting towards £100m.
That's not taking into account the South African fans.

I think you're missing my point. The amount of revenue that crowds bring is irrelevant if you can't have them. I'm saying that something is better than nothing and that calling the whole thing off (the home unions have reportedly said no to a 2022 tour) because there won't be crowds is throwing the baby out with the bath water.

 

[RedruthRFC]

More they don't have the fund that would be required to refund sponsors who have ploughed money in already. Lets remember they have spent a lot of money they don't own already.

As per my previous post, if the home unions stick to their guns and won't tour in 2022, how is calling the whole thing off and ending up with nothing going to do a better job of refunding the sponsors than making the best of a bad situation would?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

How much does it cost to play the games, though? It's not just a kick about in the local park with your mates
Lions players, coaches, staff etc. will all get paid,
The stuffy old farts in lions blazers will need their port glasses and prawn sarnie stashes replenished,
Same with their SA opposition,
Sponsorship money will take a hit with no fans, as well - beer brands will pay extra to be the Lions "official beer" knowing they'll sell a boat load in the stadia etc., media/sponsorship appearances and talks etc.
and then the actual cost of using the stadium (stadium staff, insurance, rent if it's not owned outright)

The PRL lost a significant sum holding a crowdless prem final at Twickenham (so much so that they wanted to move to a club stadium, and even looked at football stadiums, as they'd be cheaper to run), multiply that by every mid-week/test

All going to eat into the TV money - and I doubt the TV money is anything ridiculous to start with.

 

[munstermuffin]

As per my previous post, if the home unions stick to their guns and won't tour in 2022, how is calling the whole thing off and ending up with nothing going to do a better job of refunding the sponsors than making the best of a bad situation would?

Not sure I am with you. Home unions touring is more for themselves in 2022. They can still tour if a Lions tour is on in 2022. They do it every Lions tour. Not sure on sticking to guns part. They want their best teams available in a vital WC Prep window.
As for your reply to me I think you are missing the whole point.

Use estimated values.

Landrover the last tour. They payed in excess of £20m in Sponsorship to Lions.

Now say it a 4 year term so with year 4 the tour.
Landrover paid the money maybe end of year 1 or start of year 2.
In return Landrover get access to players for media ads and appearances at various locations across the tour that they can sell tickets for.

Now Lions use this money to pay for camps, bases, flights, travel itineraries in year 2 etc. Also the Lions need money to pay their players and staff and bonus etc.

But my point is how do Lions refund money they don't have or S.A. who probably have similar deals.
Like you still have not addressed this. TV money was budgeted on X amount of games and media appearances.
You cut this down to 3 games you take huge slice off. Like The Lions Tour is not alone in this issue. Factor in the market size financially has reduced but the costs will remain as many were pre-Covid.

This all results in yes you could play in 2021 but at a cost of nearly wiping Unions. As for all Home Unions I'm sure they are watching closely as they all benefit financially from full tour.

 

[munstermuffin]

How much does it cost to play the games, though? It's not just a kick about in the local park with your mates
Lions players, coaches, staff etc. will all get paid,
The stuffy old farts in lions blazers will need their port glasses and prawn sarnie stashes replenished,
Same with their SA opposition,
Sponsorship money will take a hit with no fans, as well - beer brands will pay extra to be the Lions "official beer" knowing they'll sell a boat load in the stadia etc., media/sponsorship appearances and talks etc.
and then the actual cost of using the stadium (stadium staff, insurance, rent if it's not owned outright)

The PRL lost a significant sum holding a crowdless prem final at Twickenham (so much so that they wanted to move to a club stadium, and even looked at football stadiums, as they'd be cheaper to run), multiply that by every mid-week/test

All going to eat into the TV money - and I doubt the TV money is anything ridiculous to start with.

As I said we have been quoted the IRFU will loose 1-2million if Pro 16 doesn't go ahead. That is with very little TV money as this was a rush tournament so no major commitments in existence.

For PRL I'd imagine BT deal is chunky and even for clubs. I know someone involved with Gloucester who said like the loss of matchday and the sales of beer etc in the bars is scary. I'd imagine it same for every club like as he said if you sell 3000 burgers etc at £2 profit. That goes a long long way.

 

[ncurd]

How much does it cost to play the games, though? It's not just a kick about in the local park with your mates
Lions players, coaches, staff etc. will all get paid,
The stuffy old farts in lions blazers will need their port glasses and prawn sarnie stashes replenished,
Same with their SA opposition,
Sponsorship money will take a hit with no fans, as well - beer brands will pay extra to be the Lions "official beer" knowing they'll sell a boat load in the stadia etc.
and then the actual cost of using the stadium (stadium staff, insurance, rent if it's not owned outright)

The PRL lost a significant sum holding a crowdless prem final at Twickenham (so much so that they wanted to move to a club stadium, and even looked at football stadiums, as they'd be cheaper to run), multiply that by every mid-week/test

All going to eat into the TV money - and I doubt the TV money is anything ridiculous to start with.

Sadly I've looked and I can't seam to find the TV money figures and its possibly the most important factor into working out if a crowdless tour is viable.

I know for Football/Cricket all the talk of sponsors/crowds pales in insignificance to how much the TV rights are worth. Cricket sold its soul to Sky way back in the mid-2000's and its caused problems with participation figures but there is no doubt it basically pays for the first class game. Football you see the same thing sure sides need a sugar daddy to actually compete in the premiership but getting in there is worth millions to a club eben if they get knocked out immediate because the prize money is so huge from TV rights.

Just look at the Autumn pseudo 6 nations tournament, that would of not happened if they had lost or were going to lose huge sums of money.

With the PRL its like Cricket I know the domestic rights are worth basically duck all to the extent most teams now have their own streaming service for games. However this isn't the domestic game in terms of property its only really after the WRC in terms of value.

We'll see I wish I could find a figure but I'll surprised if its anything close to under half the expected revenue.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Sadly I've looked and I can't seam to find the TV money figures and its possibly the most important factor into working out if a crowdless tour is viable.

I know for Football/Cricket all the talk of sponsors/crowds pales in insignificance to how much the TV rights are worth. Cricket sold its soul to Sky way back in the mid-2000's and its caused problems with participation figures but there is no doubt it basically pays for the first class game. Football you see the same thing sure sides need a sugar daddy to actually compete in the premiership but getting in there is worth millions to a club eben if they get knocked out immediate because the prize money is so huge from TV rights.

Just look at the Autumn pseudo 6 nations tournament, that would of not happened if they had lost or were going to lose huge sums of money.

With the PRL its like Cricket I know the domestic rights are worth basically duck all to the extent most teams now have their own streaming service for games. However this isn't the domestic game in terms of property its only really after the WRC in terms of value.

We'll see I wish I could find a figure but I'll surprised if its anything close to under half the expected revenue.

And with that you'd imagine that the unions will be desperate to get it to go ahead presuming Sky have already secured a deal worth more than the tour is worth now that it clashes with the Euros.

I doubt the unions will lose out on the tour to be honest but I'd question if it is worth the risk especially considering Lions hype has been non existent when usually every second article or TV segment at this stage of the year would be so and so's Lions team.

I really think it should just be binned, along with the Euros and Olympics to be honest. The vaccine rollout likely won't be half complete at that stage and the last thing that's needed is another wave because everyone is having BBQs and watching massive sporting events. And I do think there's a difference here to 6nations/EPL etc... I know the chances are that my perspective will have changed by summer and I'd happily go somewhere to do exactly what I'm condemning here if it's not too far out of line with restrictions.

 

[RedruthRFC]

Not sure I am with you. Home unions touring is more for themselves in 2022. They can still tour if a Lions tour is on in 2022. They do it every Lions tour. Not sure on sticking to guns part. They want their best teams available in a vital WC Prep window.
As for your reply to me I think you are missing the whole point.

Of course they could, but would they want to if they didn't have access to the home unions' international squads? The unions have already stated their position.

But my point is how do Lions refund money they don't have or S.A. who probably have similar deals.
Like you still have not addressed this.

Unless the home unions alter their stated position, you don't. My point is that some form of compromise is going to achieve sometthing in this regard while doing what was planned or nothing will leave 100% of nothing.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I really think it should just be binned, along with the Euros and Olympics to be honest. The vaccine rollout likely won't be half complete at that stage and the last thing that's needed is another wave because everyone is having BBQs and watching massive sporting events. And I do think there's a difference here to 6nations/EPL etc... I know the chances are that my perspective will have changed by summer and I'd happily go somewhere to do exactly what I'm condemning here if it's not too far out of line with restrictions.

Bin it and postpone the 6N to summer is what I'd do

 

[mdaclarke]

Bin it and postpone the 6N to summer is what I'd do

Binning it is the worst option. I'd rather delay to next year and bin the 2022 6N

 

[Kiwiwomble]

I really think you're under estimating how much crowd revenue is. Just alone with the Lions fans. Let's say 40k people go out there in total and spend an average of £2000 (inc merch, tickets, food, drink, accommodation) then you're getting towards £100m.
That's not taking into account the South African fans.

and that's where it may fall over, touring fans more than likely wouldn't be allowed to come, Nz only had a few hundred quarantine bed available, I couldn't go home for xmas because they were all booked up

even if you could you have to pay so its like an extra $3-4K on your trip to quarantine for two weeks