IRB rankings and RWC 2015 pool draws

[ZeFrenchy]

That would be with Wales beating Australia, right?

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Wales have been underperforming big time whilst Aus have managed to 'sneak' results while running on empty so to speak (they do have a massive injury crisis) so I suppose Wales beating Aus would be an upset.

Funny though as prior to Wales showing their lack of a hand against Arg and Samoa I would seriously have tipped them for this upcoming match but now it appears their not having been able to beat Aus in June was a sign of a bit of a slump for them.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

As it stands (NZ and Samoa leading

1 NZ 92.91
2 SA 86.94
3 Aus 86.31
4 Fra 83.07


5 Eng 81.07
6 Sam 80.71
7 Ire 79.83
8 Wal 78.95


9 Arg 78.71
10 Ita 76.24
11 Ton 76.10
12 Sco 75.83

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Putting aside the results from the Fra v Sam game it seems a drubbing is on the cards for Wales.

If they then lose to Aus next week they will fall to 9th behind both Arg and Sam (even should Samoa lose against France now). If Aus do win and win by 15+ they'll go ahead of SA to 2nd. England are set to remain 5th whichever way their fixture against NZ go unless if they manage to top nZ by 15+ will they go above France (unless France beats Samoa)

 

[LittleGuy]

The IRB has just released the provsional rankings not including the NZ vs. Wales game, and the top four teams are all locked in, so the first band will be NZ, South Africa, Australia and France. Samoa have moved up to 8th and the Pumas have dropped to 9th for the moment.

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Wow... With these rankings, imagine a draw with New Zealand, England and Argentina in 1 group... In a group like this, there's a real danger of the hosts being eliminated int the group stages already

 

[LittleGuy]

Wow... With these rankings, imagine a draw with New Zealand, England and Argentina in 1 group... In a group like this, there's a real danger of the hosts being eliminated int the group stages already

That would be a group of death for sure!!! Wales might still drop as well with a loss to Australia next week, I'm not sure if the England vs. NZ game next week will change anything. Can you imagine, NZ, England and Wales in a group the RFU and IRB are probably pooping themselves about the possibility of one of the hosts(since Wales are hosting games) going out so early, Scotland will also be touch and go to get out of their pool, since teams like Tonga, Canada and Georgia probably aren't that far behind them in ability.

 

[LittleGuy]

Wow!!! Samoa and Argentina were effectively tied in points so the IRB have gone to 15 decimal points to show that Samoa is indeed ahead of them. They are therefore guarenteed to be in the 2nd band!!! Only thing that can change now is Wales and Argentina. If Wales win they are band two if they lose they are band three. England vs. New Zealand has no effect on the bandings.

So this is what it looks like....

Band 1. All locked in

New Zealand
South Africa
Australia
France

Band 2.
England
Ireland
Wales(Need to win against Australia)
Samoa


Band 3. Bottom three locked in.
Argentina(Can advance to Band two with Wales loss)
Italy
Tonga
Scotland

 

[erwanseb]

With the remaining games, only two positions can be switched, Argentina and Wales, depending on Wales vs Austrlia.
England vs New Zeland does not any bearing on the outcome.

Band 1, frozen
New Zealand
South Africa
Australia
France

Band 2, 3 teams frozen
England
Ireland
Samoa
Wales (Wales Draws or Wins vs Austrlia) or Argentina (Wales Loses)

Band 3, 3 teams frozen
Wales (Wales Loses vs Austrlia) or Argentina (Wales Draws or Wins vs Austrlia)
Italy
Tonga
Scotland

 

[Rhyer]

This is excellent news for Samoa who now have a strong possibility of making the quarter-finals and maybe upsetting someone?

I don't see Wales beating Australia.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Wow! if Wales loses against Oz, then there will be 3 RBS 6 Nations teams in the 3rd Tier/Band/Group... but not 1 Rugby Championship team in that pool... Makes you think...

 

[ZeFrenchy]

Potentially, one of the top 4 could have Samoa, Tonga and Fiji on the same pool...

So, which would be your favourite pool draw? For France, I'm quite indifferent among the (five) teams in the second band. I'd like to avoid England, and (despite the late results, and not knowing what may be their state three years from now) probably I'd take Samoa. From the third, I'd take Scotland or Italy over Tonga.
From the fourth and fifth, it's always good to avoid hard hitting sides like Georgia, to avoid injuries, but those are matches that have to be won anyway, so no big difference (except Fiji, of course).

 

[psychic duck]

I wonder whether Samoa now a guaranteed second band team, they could persuade even more New Zealanders to play for them. A large reason for their resurgence in 2010, is that they've managed to get players like Paul Williams, Kahn Fotuali'i, Ti'i Paulo etc all available, whilst they were previously not available. They could perhaps get even more now the side is being successful.

Interesting that if Samoa and Tonga get drawn in the same pool, then we are guaranteed at least one Tier 1 team in the Quarter Finals at 2015. It is hard to say what is the hardest or easiest pool, but Wales or Argentina are a team in band 3 which everybody will want to avoid.

I think England are the least preferable team to have in band 2 as they will be at home, Samoa are probably the weakest, but teams would perhaps prefer to play Ireland as Samoa basically mash up sides physically win or lose, very inconvenient at a World Cup, and they are too good to rest players against as well.

Remember that we can predict band 4 and 5 will likely be as well:

Band 4: Japan (Asia 1), Georgia (Europe 1), Fiji (Oceania 1), Canada or USA (Americas 1)
Band 5: Romania (Europe 2), Canada or USA (Americas 2), Spain, Russia or Portugal (Repechage), An African side (Africa 1)

I think Americas 1 will be the side you want to avoid most as the USA have impressed in 2012 and much improved on 2011 and are a tricky side to play, Japan I think are the side most would want to play as they don't offer unpredictability like Fiji, and won't physically mash a team. In band 5, Americas 2 is the side to avoid, and Africa 1 is most certainly the easiest side you would want in your pool.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I wonder whether Samoa now a guaranteed second band team, they could persuade even more New Zealanders to play for them. A large reason for their resurgence in 2010, is that they've managed to get players like Paul Williams, Kahn Fotuali'i, Ti'i Paulo etc all available, whilst they were previously not available. They could perhaps get even more now the side is being successful.

Interesting that if Samoa and Tonga get drawn in the same pool, then we are guaranteed at least one Tier 1 team in the Quarter Finals at 2015. It is hard to say what is the hardest or easiest pool, but Wales or Argentina are a team in band 3 which everybody will want to avoid.

I think England are the least preferable team to have in band 2 as they will be at home, Samoa are probably the weakest, but teams would perhaps prefer to play Ireland as Samoa basically mash up sides physically win or lose, very inconvenient at a World Cup, and they are too good to rest players against as well.

Remember that we can predict band 4 and 5 will likely be as well:

Band 4: Japan (Asia 1), Georgia (Europe 1), Fiji (Oceania 1), Canada or USA (Americas 1)
Band 5: Romania (Europe 2), Canada or USA (Americas 2), Spain, Russia or Portugal (Repechage), An African side (Africa 1)

I think Americas 1 will be the side you want to avoid most as the USA have impressed in 2012 and much improved on 2011 and are a tricky side to play, Japan I think are the side most would want to play as they don't offer unpredictability like Fiji, and won't physically mash a team. In band 5, Americas 2 is the side to avoid, and Africa 1 is most certainly the easiest side you would want in your pool.

Yes! Samoa will be either no8 or no7 (if Wales lose next week) depending on if Wales manage to beat Australia. Argentina and Samoa would both leap frog Wales if they lose to Aus by any margin. The NZ v Eng match won't effect anything even if England manage to thump NZ by 15+ which I wouldn't bet on (they're that far behind Fra).

ITO what I would want and want to avoid for SA ITO draws (assuming Aus and NZ win on the weekend);

Best draw for SA IMO;
band 2; Eng/Arg as we have good records against these teams whereas Ireland can by a tricky fixture for us and you want to avoid the wear and tear from facing Samoa
band 3; Wal/Italy/Tonga again even though I think Wales is the best team in band 3 (potentially) I'd rather face them than Scotland who I think have the better pack
band 4; n/a
band 5; n/a

ITO the lower bands it doesn't really much matter though you'd probably want to avoid the teams more likely to injure your players though tough games are good preperation..

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

This is excellent news for Samoa who now have a strong possibility of making the quarter-finals and maybe upsetting someone?

I don't see Wales beating Australia.

With Samoa secure in Band 2, there's even a possibility of all 3 PI's being drawn in the same group.

 

[psychic duck]

Yes! Samoa will be either no8 or no7 (if Wales lose next week) depending on if Wales manage to beat Australia. Argentina and Samoa would both leap frog Wales if they lose to Aus by any margin. The NZ v Eng match won't effect anything even if England manage to thump NZ by 15+ which I wouldn't bet on (they're that far behind Fra).

ITO what I would want and want to avoid for SA ITO draws (assuming Aus and NZ win on the weekend);

Best draw for SA IMO;
band 2; Eng/Arg as we have good records against these teams whereas Ireland can by a tricky fixture for us and you want to avoid the wear and tear from facing Samoa
band 3; Wal/Italy/Tonga again even though I think Wales is the best team in band 3 (potentially) I'd rather face them than Scotland who I think have the better pack
band 4; n/a
band 5; n/a

ITO the lower bands it doesn't really much matter though you'd probably want to avoid the teams more likely to injure your players though tough games are good preperation.

I'm surprised you would rather Wales or Tonga over Scotland. There's no way Scotland have a better pack than a fully fit Wales with the likes of Adam Jones, Dan Lydiate and Alun-Wyn Jones back plus some others on better form, Wales' pack outplayed them in the 6 Nations this year.

With the lower bands, if you'd rather miss the more physical sides that have some big hard hitters and could bruise the side up you would want to avoid USA, Fiji, Georgia and Romania. The others are more lightweight teams.

With Samoa secure in Band 2, there's even a possibility of all 3 PI's being drawn in the same group.

That would certainly be interesting.

 

[erwanseb]

It is certainly positive to be in the highest possible band, but making predictions and guessing form level of teams in three years time is just plainly irrelevant.
Better avoiding the home teams though, regardless of who they are.

 

[Superalexmarket]

This ranking is **** ... it is possible that Wales who lost three home games, is over Samoa and Argentina in the rankings?? If both defeated the Welsh at home .... get the **** outta here!!

 

[TRF_heineken]

This ranking is **** ... it is possible that Wales who lost three home games, is over Samoa and Argentina in the rankings?? If both defeated the Welsh at home .... get the **** outta here!!

Why? because all of a sudden a team has a bad slump and the other teams have a good run, for a small period of time?? the rankings aren't just about the Autumn internationals, there were many previous matches which also played a factor...

 

[ZeFrenchy]

This ranking is **** ... it is possible that Wales who lost three home games, is over Samoa and Argentina in the rankings?? If both defeated the Welsh at home .... get the **** outta here!!

Grand slam anyone?