IRB rankings and RWC 2015 pool draws

[Black_Magic]

Tonight's loss can prove very costly for Wales, as they lost almost two ranking points and can fall behind both Arentina and Ireland while staying just a tiny fraction of a point above Samoa.

 

[monkeypigeon]

Tonight's loss can prove very costly for Wales, as they lost almost two ranking points and can fall behind both Arentina and Ireland while staying just a tiny fraction of a point above Samoa.

Yeah, but Ireland or Argentina will take big points off the other next weekend so Wales will be safe for 8th unless Samoa pull another shock.

Or so is my reckoning.

 

[erwanseb]

If anything, this win will be costly for Australia as their core rating with Wales has increased significantly.
Australia will have more to lose and less to win against Wales.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Why? As far as I know Italy has beaten Scotland twice in the last three six nations games. Besides, in the recent past France has also lost against Italy, and on the other hand Scotland has never been a solid rival against France recently. Italy is tier 1, and it deserves that place considering Scotland is also Tier 1. Samoa only have its full strength side on WC years, otherwise considering how tough was its resistance against Wales and SA in the WC I think they are a very competitive and solid team.

That is my opinion; the way I perceive things to be. Since there is no clear cut off my opinion is formed in large part by results of these countries against my home nation and in that regard those teams have never really troubled us and though Scotland might not be a rival for France we've (SA) had some hairy games against them.

 

[Seaton]

Hmmm, the Wales result now has me leaning towards wanting a Scotland win in the game later today, should seal up a top 8 place assuming the Pumas win their games and Samoa don't beat France.

 

[ZeFrenchy]

Momentarily:

1. New Zealand 92.91
2. South Africa 86.06
3. Australia 85.95
4. France 84.58*
5. England 81.96
6. Argentina 80.29*
7. Ireland 79.03
8. Wales 78.95
9. Samoa 78.80
10. Scotland 77.97
11. Italy 76.61

With France-Argentina still to be played.
- If France win by more than 15 pts: FRA earns 0.41 and ARG lose the same amount. They both keep their places.
- If France win by 1-15 pts: FRA earns and ARG lose 0.27, both keeping their places.
- If it's a draw: FRA lose and ARG gain 0.73, both keeping their places.
- If ARG win by 1-15 pts: ARG gain and FRA lose 1.73, FRA remain 4th, ARG take 5th.
- If ARG win by over 15 pts: ARG gain and FRA lose 2.59, FRA remain 4th, ARG take 5th.

 

[erwanseb]

After France vs Argentina. The top four are ABs, SA, OZ and France.

Wales is now in real danger of falling from the second pot to the third one.
Losing against NZ and OZ will place them below Samoa, regardless of the results between Samoa and France.

New Zealand 92.91
South Africa 86.047
Australia 85.947
France 84.987
England 81.963
Argentina 79.884
Ireland 79.04
Wales 78.954
Samoa 78.786
Scotland 77.423
Italy 76.61
Tonga 74.22

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

South Africa cannot be overtaken by England, meaning they are guaranteed a place in the top4 ahead of the WC draw

 

[erwanseb]

Disagreed, England plays the Abs and therefore have one more game (unless the ranking are frozen before that game, this I am not sure).

They could indeed overcome SA but that is a very long shot.

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Ahhh, scheisse! Forgot about the 4th Test the English play. Never mind then.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Ahhh, scheisse! Forgot about the 4th Test the English play. Never mind then.

I really wouldn't worry - we're not going to be a threat to you guys unless we suddenly remember how to play rugby...

 

[dullonien]

So how many points will Wales gain by beating the All Blacks? Yes it's a serious question,.... honest... :unsure:

 

[Feicarsinn]

So how many points will Wales gain by beating the All Blacks? Yes it's a serious question,.... honest... :unsure:

About 2. Would put you up to 6th.

In the unlikely circumstance that Samoa record a narrow victory over France they could well go up to 6th, regardless of the result between Ireland and Argentina. Of course avoiding that 9th spot is everyone's goal. Realistically it will probably be Samoa, but should they win then Wales have a serious problem. If Wales were to lose by more than 15 and Samoa win, Wales would need Argentina to win in Ireland (which they've never done) to avoid being outside the top 8. Although pretty unlikely, we could end up with something like this:

6) Argentina
7) Samoa
8) Wales
9) Ireland

Which would be ****,

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Spot on, I had a typo on the original Samoa ranking and a few score difference by more than 15.
You have
Wales>Samoa
NZ>Italy
England>Oz
SA>Scotland
France>Argentina
Ireland>Argentina
SA>England
Oz>Italy
Scotland>Tonga
France>Samoa
NZ>Wales
NZ>England
Wales>Australia

I'm glad I didn't bet on these. Wales and Aus have both surprised me this month but for different reasons.

 

[erwanseb]

About 2. Would put you up to 6th.

Of course avoiding that 9th spot is everyone's goal. Realistically it will probably be Samoa, but should they win then Wales have a serious problem.
Which would be ****,

Disagreed, regardless of the results between France and Samoa, Wales will fall behind Samoa if they fail to record a win in the next two games, Oz and Ab.
Wales is now favourite to end up in the 9th spot unless they can beat Australia, unlikely from what i have seen so far.

 

[Feicarsinn]

Disregard yourself. I made no mention of the Australia game because I was talking about this week's games. But still, 4.5/5 for being unnecessarily dick-ish.

 

[UlsterRugby2012]

Sorry I'm not good with these rankings, if Ireland win, Wales and Samoa lose, will Ireland go up to 6th?

 

[erwanseb]

Yes on a temporary basis , Wales vs Australia the following week will then have a bearing on the outcome.

Any of those 5 teams could be ranked above Ireland at the end of November tour: Argentina, Scotland, Wales, Italy , Samoa.

The best Ireland can hope is 6th, the worst would be 11th if Wales, Samoa , Scotland and Italy all win and Ireland loses.

Anyway, Ireland controls its own feat, a win will secure the second seed regardless of any other results as it guarantees being ranked above Italy, Scotland and Argentina.

The top of four are almost secured, it would require some huge upsets for England or Wales to catch up with either Australia, South Africa or France (Wales would need to beat the ABs and the OZ with other results going their way). Only the ABs are numerically guaranteed to be in the top 4.

The IRB rankings are normally quite boring except now as the current games may have a huge bearing on the outcome of RWC2015.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

my predicted standings after round 3;

Pretty conservatitve and in the closer matches I'm backing SA and Arg to narrowly beat England and Ireland respectively.

NZ 92.91
SA 86.94
Aus 86.31
France 85.07

Argentina 81.11
England 81.07
Ireland 79.04
Wales 78.95

Samoa 78.79
Scotland 77.83
Italia 76.24
Tonga 74.10

 

[erwanseb]

My predicions, I play SA and Argentina and one big upset.
1. New Zealand 92.91
2. South Africa 86.94
3. France 85.07
4. Australia 84.31
5. Argentina 81.11
6. England 81.07
7. Wales 78.95
8. Samoa 78.71
9. Italy 78.24
10. Scotland 78.03
11. Ireland 77.82
12. Tonga 73.90