[EOYT] England vs. Australia 02/11/13

[Crapspray]

You have to remember that the NH rankings are inflated relative to SH rankings due to the fact that they get to play other NH teams. I'm not trying to start an argument, but obviously a team that plays South Africa, New Zealand and Argentina regularly is likely to have fewer wins than a team that plays France, Wales, Ireland, Italy and Scotland regularly.

The system isn't based on the number of wins, but a points transfer system. The greater the difference in rankings, the greater the transfer of points. So, for example, based on current position, if England were to beat the All Blacks they'll get more rankings points than if they were to win a Grand Slam next year.

Whichever side wins tomorrow (England by six) will be ranked third, with a big gap between them and the Springboks and even bigger one to the All Blacks; which I think would be a fair reflection. And the only way for either to climb towards the leaders is by beating them- beating the likes of Italy or Tonga will have no effect.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

The system isn't based on the number of wins, but a points transfer system. The greater the difference in rankings, the greater the transfer of points. So, for example, based on current position, if England were to beat the All Blacks they'll get more rankings points than if they were to win a Grand Slam next year.

Whichever side wins tomorrow (England by six) will be ranked third, with a big gap between them and the Springboks and even bigger one to the All Blacks; which I think would be a fair reflection. And the only way for either to climb towards the leaders is by beating them- beating the likes of Italy or Tonga will have no effect.

Yeah, but obviously if you aren't winning you can earn any points There's a big correlation between wins and ranking points.

 

[Jaguares]

I see Australia as the favourites.

Me too, sorry English. Wallabies by +10

 

[Big Ewis]

Actually that pretty much sums up my train of thought

You have to remember that the NH rankings are inflated relative to SH rankings due to the fact that they get to play other NH teams. I'm not trying to start an argument, but obviously a team that plays South Africa, New Zealand and Argentina regularly is likely to have fewer wins than a team that plays France, Wales, Ireland, Italy and Scotland regularly.

no argument, but whatever train of thought you're on at the moment, you may have considered the sensitivities of ALL THE ENGLISH POSTERS on this forum before saying smt like that is all I'm 'hinting at'. Esp. since England don't even deserve that treatment, however you look at it they're still 3rd world wide, that counts for smt.

aaaaaaaanyways:
I've got a gut feeling England will win this, but if I rationalize and had to really give one final thought, I'd say Australia by a narrow margin, smt like 5.
Surely Australia will concede some points, even tries, their defense isn't on par with their attack. Their attack though has really flourished as we've all seen, and that alone makes me think they can run rampant at any moment and score back to back tries at any moment in the match past 15min of action. But England have a much better kicker, are at home, have a big forward advantage...Billy Vunipola and then Ben Morgan off the bench at no.8, that's gonna do some damage.
A very hard game to call. Again, Aussies by 4-5.

 

[Peat]

England are capable of putting on brilliant performances (against NZ last year), but they're also capable of completely capitulating (against Wales this year). That being said I still see them as the most consistent of the NH nations, slightly ahead of Wales and Ireland. Whilst England could well win this weekend, I see Australia as the favourites.

Those two results should really mean very little. Both look like freak outliers compared to the vast body of England results and happened in relatively uncommon circumstances. I don't think anyone would ever hurry to put money on repeats. We are consistent; we win small or lose small - generally lose small vs the Big three - generally win small vs the NH - with a few occasional romps over teams who are are in poor situations. We're bullies and, based on what we have seen, it's very unlikely we'd put a big win on a good team, and generally unlikely that we'd win.

The lesson of history is that we will lose this game by a less than seven point gap. People can point to the Lions - the Lions could not beat a weaker Wallabies team without a very destructive scrum - we've been forced to make the second test swap that showed that - if anything, I'd say the series points at Australia. The question is whether England have improved enough to overturn this. I am not going to say we haven't but I could be a great deal more sanguine about this.

 

[big ginger 8]

With the Lawes hype machine like this already from Sky I'd hate to see it after the game if he plays well.

I'm presuming that if Lawes goes and puts in his big hits but Mowen carries through on what he's said and takes the lineout apart will people be happy with Lawes? I know Sky will but would others have in the team possibly ahead of Launchbury?

Sorry about the probable lack of coherency.

 

[Big Ewis]

I might be wrong about Australia winning, but I do predict Australia 2 tries to 1 with confidence......ahem.

 

[Feicarsinn]

Oh bloody hell, not this ref cam ****e.

 

[LittleGuy]

Oh bloody hell, not this ref cam ****e.

Does ANYONE like the ref cam? I can't imagine a worse possible camera angle, as the camera bobs up and down incessantly....ooooh wow I get to see the scrum set up close....yaaaaawwn.

 

[Tony Manx]

I think it is the worst innovation ever! Stop ******* about and show us the rugby!!!

Good response from a ****e start!!

 

[TRF_Olyy]

With the Lawes hype machine like this already from Sky I'd hate to see it after the game if he plays well.

I'm presuming that if Lawes goes and puts in his big hits but Mowen carries through on what he's said and takes the lineout apart will people be happy with Lawes? I know Sky will but would others have in the team possibly ahead of Launchbury?

Sorry about the probable lack of coherency.

Hard to say - for me, a good performance for him will see me happy with him being on the bench.
I can't see him being ahead of a fit and on form Launchbury/Parling - it's a battle between him and Attwood for the 19 shirt.

 

[Thingimubob]

Question: have Tompkins and Folau played each other in League before?

 

[Feicarsinn]

Ohh, very nice from Mike Brown.

 

[Peat]

With the Lawes hype machine like this already from Sky I'd hate to see it after the game if he plays well.

I'm presuming that if Lawes goes and puts in his big hits but Mowen carries through on what he's said and takes the lineout apart will people be happy with Lawes? I know Sky will but would others have in the team possibly ahead of Launchbury?

Sorry about the probable lack of coherency.

It is not enough for Lawes to put in big hits and not seal the rest of the deal. Nowhere near enough. Its his lineout, it has to go reasonably well. More importantly for me - ruck well, carry well.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Wow, would you look at that: Tom Youngs hooked the ball.
I thought we'd established that he literally couldn't do that?

Question: have Tompkins and Folau played each other in League before?

Not as far as I'm aware.

 

[Jaguares]

Wooooww! Amazing reverse pass by Quade Cooper!

 

[Big Ewis]

can I ask anyone for a nice link that doesn't lag like crazy ? I'm watching in Portuguese at the moment, it's fluid visually but....it's in Portuguese!!

Many thanks.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Lineout not working well atm.
As much as I think Youngs is better than Hartley, maybe Hartley shouldve gotten the nod after they decided Lawes would be running the lineout - get the club combination (+Wood as well) going.

 

[Big Ewis]

the 3 tries I (courageously) predicted may very well all come in the second half...
Aussies kind of hanging in there in the scrum....but boy are they going to pay in retrospect from there.

 

[Tony Manx]

Yellow card due any time soon...............too many penalties ruing the game which is pretty turgid stuff anyway!