I'll take this one because it's my favourite debate in world rugby right now, watching 10s is what I love most as a fan of this game. It's elite rugby, his team are losing and he has a jersey ahead of another class player. I think Fin Smith has potential to be one of the best 10s of the pro era, Carter seems a bit untouchable but I think he can play to the level of Wilkinson and Sexton, the way he can run a game at such a young age and seemlessly and be an on field tactician while also having such elite passing and passing skills and being a threat in his own right is like nothing I've ever seen. He's the type of player a team can build around and be a top 2-4 team constantly throughout his career. Marcus is class, he'd be my starting Lions 10 based off this year but I just don't see him as that type of player. There have been top class and successful gamebreaking 10s who play like him, Cooper comes to mind, Beauden too and I'd put Russell in there even though his skillset to do so is very different. The problem with them is that they were always part of teams who, while they could beat anyone on their day (Russell aside), like the above, they also played a game that would give worse teams a chance to win where an elite controlled and front running 10 wouldn't allow it.
Sexton is the most recent example and one who wasn't in a team so far ahead that it's not worth comparing like Carter. He played in some great Ireland teams and also in some pretty **** ones but with the exception of a loss at home to Scotland in his first season of international rugby he only ever lost to NZ, Australia (pre-2015, excluding bench appearances for this which I will also do for M Smith), South Africa (last one being 2012), England, Wales and France. Ireland never once dropped below the level they should have been with Sexton on the rugby pitch and in the same period without him there were losses to Japan, Italy, Scotland and Argentina.
Marcus already has one L in the column of "teams England shouldn't lose to" last week. It's his first season as number one so forgiveable but until England are a team that losses to teams like Scotland and worse just don't seem like a possibility or Fin comes in and just doesn't have it (possible, running the show at club level is only an indicator, it's a different ball game internationally), I don't think this debate will go away.
I don't accept that it's everyone's fault but his own or similar that we're hearing, and specifically to last week, I don't accept Borthwick's bad subs being excuses for it because the traits I want to see are:
1. Being able to put points on the board - he has this in spades.
2. Being able to have the tactical awareness as to when expansive attack is needed or when as much pressure through territory and phase play needs to be applied - he hasn't shown this and was extremely bad in this regard from 20-40 mins last week, England got dragged into a loose attacking game and Australia punished them for it.
3. Limit the damage when his team are under pressure for long periods by controlling the controllables - weirdly enough considering he hasn't faced this yet despite the losing run. The gamebreaking ability will definitely be a great attribute here but there's also a lot of the qualities in point 2 that are needed.
If I had to bet on which of the two can consistently do all of the above to an elite level consistently, I'm putting all of it on Fin.
Marcus earned his go this autumn and he's in the positive bracket for England who do need continuity in places whilst trying to change so he has to be number 1 for the 6 nations unless Fin Smith starts doing unbelievable things with his transitioning and mediocre Saints team. But if England keep losing winnable games because their phase to phase play remains well below the standard required and their match awareness is, frankly, awful, I think it will be hard not to give Fin his chance to take over this time next year provided his quality of play also remains very high.