When I say can't, you're right, I obviously don't mean its impossible.
However, given that we could have entered this world cup, along with home advntage having all selections nailed down, that we should by now have a resilient set-piece and very settled combinations - we are comparatively in a disappointing position.
I am also comparing us to the other teams in this competition who have come to the boil at the right time (Ireland, Australia), those who look vastly improved (France) and those who were already the clear favourites (New Zealand).
Mostly, though, when I say we are unlikely to win the thing it's because of my lack of faith in the lineout and unease over the scrum. Our 3 hookers over the couple of games have looked shaky at best in the area that matters most.
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Completely this.
I guess my point is that given the time Lancaster and co have had together, to develop combinations and partnerships, to develop a style(to be fair I sort of think we've developed a way of playing), given home advantage, we almost could have been going into this competition saying that we should expect to win it. In reality I feel like we are simply one of half a dozen teams in with a shout.