[COVID-19] General Discussion

[Yulia]

There's a second case of Omicron in Poland (from someone who has been to the UK,as far as I've heard today on the radio). 25 cases of Omicron in Russia in general (all the tourists were in the South Africa)

 

[Which Tyler]

Why a UK Omicron wave is dangerous – even if we see mostly mild cases

Analysis: If the spread continues at this rate, a small proportion of Covid hospitalisations is a serious matter

www.theguardian.com

Simple population statistics - which seems to be perpetually misunderstood through this pandemic (not saying anyone here has)

If the hospitalisation rate for Omicron vs Delta drops by a third (6% => 4%), but the case numbers double (40k => 80k); then overall numbers in hospital increase by a third. (2/3 x 2/1 = 4/3)




The more common misunderstanding has been "how come so many vaccinated people are in hospital" - which again, is simple maths:

Lets imagine a virus sweeps through a village of 1000 people, all of whom are exposed.
This virus has a 20% chance that an infected person needs hospitalisation.
70% of the village are vaccinated.
Vaccines have an 80% effectiveness at preventing hospitalisation.

So 700 vaccinated people are exposed, whilst 300 unvaccinated people are exposed.
140 of those with the vaccine would have had the virus bad enough to be hospitalised, but the vaccines effectiveness brings that down to 28 vaccinated people end up in hospital.
Of the unvaccinated, 60 have the virus bad enough to end up in hospital.

Newspaper Headlines "nearly a third of people in hospital are vaccinated"

 

[Bada-Bing!]

UKHSA data dashboard

Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

93K recorded cases today. Smaller increase compared to the day before yesterday, but still heading towards 100k cases daily. And also these are recorded so peeps still walking around thinking they just have a bad cold but spreading it.

Patients admitted to hospital as of 4 days ago creeping up to 900. So those infected this week by Omicron or Delta won't be reflected yet in this figure.

 

[McTallshort]

UKHSA data dashboard

Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

93K recorded cases today. Smaller increase compared to the day before yesterday, but still heading towards 100k cases daily. And also these are recorded so peeps still walking around thinking they just have a bad cold but spreading it.

Patients admitted to hospital as of 4 days ago creeping up to 900. So those infected this week by Omicron or Delta won't be reflected yet in this figure.

Zoe already reporting 100k

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Zoe already reporting 100k

Yeh Zoe app will be reporting cases from those who report symptoms directly to them and positive LFTs? Which would suggest there are more positives but who not reporting their positive case via NHS. They have been reporting higher cases than UKHSA way before Omicron.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Booster at least 80% effective against severe Omicron

Preliminary estimates by researchers suggest the top-up shot should help keep many people out of hospital.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bada-Bing!]

8pm curfew on bars and restaurants in ROI.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Micheál is less competent than he sounds and he's a bumbling ****.

We've had **** all freedom this year, I wouldn't mind this had we at least been able to enjoy our summer/early autumn but they were far too tentative then when everything was fine and opened up when it was fairly foreseeable that things were getting worse.

They'll blame the Omicron but the faults were there before this and their pass the buck mentality is why they weren't addressed.

 

[RedruthRFC]

Currently unless those testing positive have their sample sent to a lab where they can test for omicron then no way of knowing which strain they have caught.

Unless capacity has been massively scaled up, presumably omicron figures are based on scaling up the small portion of positive tests that then tested to see if they're omicron, which makes a nonsense of the different requirements for people cohabiting with someone who has tested positive.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Unless capacity has been massively scaled up, presumably omicron figures are based on scaling up the small portion of positive tests that then tested to see if they're omicron, which makes a nonsense of the different requirements for people cohabiting with someone who has tested positive.

Maybe this goes someway to answering your question.

Health officials tested a sample of new Covid cases over two days earlier this week, to see how many cases had what is known as an S-gene dropout, or no S gene.
Delta does not have an S-gene dropout, so that gives a clue that it could be the new variant. But not all S-gene dropouts will necessarily be Omicron and full genomic sequencing is needed to be sure.
The UKHSA said 54.2% of cases tested had the S-gene dropout suggesting it was Omicron. Across the regions the figure was:

• East Midlands: 51%
• East of England: 62%
• London: 80.8%
• North East: 26.5%
• North West: 52.6%
• South East: 55.9%
• South West: 48.2%
• West Midlands: 45.7%
• Yorkshire and Humber: 46%

However all figures are only based on samples tested at four of the UK Lighthouse laboratories - Alderley Park, Glasgow, Milton Keynes and Newcastle - which means there are likely to be parts of the country where the prevalence of Omicron is under-reported.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Covid: Action needed to limit hospital admissions - Sage scientists

Scientists say admissions could reach 3,000 a day in England if more restrictions are not brought in soon.

www.bbc.co.uk

Indications of more restrictions beyond plan B on their way.

Chris Whitty v Tory MP Joy Morrissey: who to believe on Covid?

Should a polymath professor be expected to defer to a politician on public health guidance?

www.theguardian.com

If qualifications determined who you should listen to.

 

[ncurd]

I don't think we'll have more restrictions as I don't think Johnson has the political capital no matter how much they might be required.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

He's certainly put his stall out completely on this booster programme. But events may overtake him if hospitals come under unbearable pressure in January and NHS staff themselves are off sick as well with it to take care of increased numbers.

Is 1m per day booster jabs being met? Currently almost 70% of population has been double jabbed of which we are approaching 40% who have received the booster, when peeps are going to meet and mix for Xmas and new year with their families/friends in doors.

Edit: 24 hour walk in centres in certain parts of the country - London, Manchester.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

 

[Which Tyler]

Although, as with the last 2 times I've posted this, it's not "lockdown" that's really being talked about.

ETA: Actually, it might be, this time.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

View attachment 12749

With pubs and restaurants- Rishi has got to get some kind of Furlough scheme going again for those sectors only as they are going to be decimated this Xmas and New year. I wouldn't be surprised if it's announced on Monday.

Was eating at my local yesterday as well and we were the only ones sitting outside eating and drinking at lunch time. We were also the only ones wearing masks when ordering at the bar. Most of the other customers who had not already cancelled were eating and drinking indoors with no masks, including staff; only a few standing outside drinking. If repeated across numerous pubs/restaurants across the country and household mixing over Xmas no doubt cases are going keep on rising.

The Message that this virus is spread through aerosols and spread more easily in less ventilated areas indoors is still evidently not getting through and we'll all be ok as long as we've been boosted isn't going to help, as there's just not enough time for the boosters to fully take effect for all by Xmas.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

 

[Kiwiwomble]

So, booster, started with just the sore arm and pretty tired…then had the worst nights sleep of my live, swinging from burning like the sun to shivering…passing now but pretty exhausted

 

[The Seeker]

I'm waiting patiently for the Johnson & Johnson booster shot. I got the first one back in May when they didn't think they'd need to produce a booster. But now they say a booster is necessary for the J&J. That's fine by me, I'm ready to get it as soon as possible. All these new variants popping up are making me weary.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Covid-19 patients ‘to be treated at home’ under emergency NHS plans

Thousands of Covid-19 patients will be treated in their own homes under emergency NHS plans, it has been reported.

www.standard.co.uk

Perhaps this could help reduce pressures on hospitals?

I'm waiting patiently for the Johnson & Johnson booster shot. I got the first one back in May when they didn't think they'd need to produce a booster. But now they say a booster is necessary for the J&J. That's fine by me, I'm ready to get it as soon as possible. All these new variants popping up are making me weary.

Maybe worth considering getting the Pfizer or Moderna mRNA vaccine as a booster if you can as it's shown to provide a bigger antibody boost than J and J.

Here in the UK they are not giving out the Oxford AZ as a booster as far as I am aware (same type as J and J as it's viral vector type vaccine). I had AZ as first two doses and Moderna as my booster and according to British Medical journal article it gives a 32 times the anti body response than the control group.

Covid-19: Antibody boost after third dose varies greatly by vaccine, study finds

Six different covid-19 vaccines are safe and effective to use as booster doses in people who previously received the Oxford AstraZeneca or Pfizer BioNTech vaccines, but the antibody boost they provide varies substantially, a study has found.1 The Cov-Boost trial looked at the safety, immune...

www.bmj.com