[COVID-19] General Discussion

[Which Tyler]

My point about risk/benefit is that the lower the risk from disease, the more people will choose not to have the jab or allow their kids to have the jab, slowing down take up.

So the right time to say "that's about as good as it's going to get" would be once that slowdown happens; not at any point when a slowdown is inevitable to happen at some point - which was also the case before the first vaccine was actually given.

Do we want a surge now, in summer, or in autumn?

We want a smaller surge, whenever that may be.
As for time of year - remember the temperature makes no damned difference to this (or pretty much any) virus. It's human behaviour as a result of that temperature that changes; and it's behaviour that we're asking to still have some (really, really mild) restrictions on.

Me personally, not that much. Except it was technically illegal for me to enter my parents' house in Wales last weekend.

This won't be changed by a change in England's rules

Other people are still prevented from doing their jobs, not able to see family (how many millions of UK residents are first generation immigrants with immediate family overseas?), etc.

And we're largely happy for more relaxing; it's the "**** it, we're done, over to you" that we're objecting to.
Or am I just speaking for myself there?

We have about 5% of all school kids currently in isolation and they have all lost out on a significant chunk of their education in the last year. That can't continue.

But the complete opening up will increase that number.
Self-isolation when infected / contact of an infected isn't being lifted; but the chances of being infected / a contact of an infected will grow massively. Wait another couple of weeks though, and it'll be the summer holidays; and any self-isolation won't make a difference to education.

 

[ncurd]

~75% of the total jabs to be administered. Rough average of 1st and 2nd jab.Not only citation needed, thats a complete butchering of statistics and complete meaningless. You could say 1 jab is the total needing to be administered give it and claim to be 100%.

The only figures worth looking at are,
% pop over 18 1st dose
% pop over 18 2nd dose
% pop 1st dose
% pop 2nd dose

Then your looking at uptake rates etc. and trying to work out where that 70-80% total population dosed could possibly be happen and your looking at 70 being the lower limit where you can think about easing restrictions and were at about 50% now.

vaccincation % UK - Google Search

 

[BiggusLaddus]

I am absolutely not saying that the government are making the right decision in removing all restrictions in 2 weeks. But it isn't as simple as saying wait longer. How much longer? In September when the kids and students go back but vaccine immunity may or may not be starting to wear off? In nov/dec after the over 50s have had a booster? Next spring?

It is a gamble that may or may not work and I'm glad I'm not the one having to make that decision.

Last thing on %. If there are 53m adults in the country (the number used to determine the official % rates) that is 106m doses until the adult population is fully vaccinated. We have so far administered 79m doses.

79/106 = 0.745

The effort towards vaccinating the adult population is 75% complete. That isn't butchering anything.

 

[Reiser99]

I'm trying to keep it simple as I'm not a scientist and so while I can understand the data, I can't really make a judgement.

The NHS has a huge backlog and needs to start moving through that list, so we can't prioritise covid forever. On top there are still many areas of the economy that a struggling hugely. Furlough has kept businesses afloat, but many will probably go under once they reopen and furlough stops because their finances are still shot. On top there are still many self-employed who never actually got support for various reasons. Poverty could well lead to more deaths than covid if not dealt with.

However, my issue is that the government should be following the advice of the experts and not trying to score political points. I'm my view the government has only followed the science when it is politically convenient to do so or when they have no choice and even then reluctantly. They have always been more concerned with appearance and targets. (Hell, why else would you hire Gove's mates to do analysis on how the public is reacting to covid measures. That's popularity not compliance) I just don't trust this government to strike the right balance or even attempt to. Just like last summer with eat out to help out, they will remove restrictions and hope that the vaccine will stop things getting very bad again. They are taking a gamble like they have done at every stage. Even the vaccines was a gamble, because we purchased far more than we needed without knowing if they worked. The vaccine procurement (not rollout, that's the NHS), is pretty much the only thing the government has got right, maybe furlough, though I still think that could have been better, especially when it turns out they purposely hid support payments mechanic for people who tested positive that was built in and has only just been made public thanks to the media, not the government.

Put it simply this government has played politics with the pandemic from the start and it has cost more lives than it should. I hope that it doesn't cost us more, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[ncurd]

Last thing on %. If there are 53m adults in the country (the number used to determine the official % rates) that is 106m doses until the adult population is fully vaccinated. We have so far administered 79m doses.

79/106 = 0.745

The effort towards vaccinating the adult population is 75% complete. That isn't butchering anything.

Yes it is, you are presenting figures that are misleading to suggest a higher % of population is vaccinated than actually is. A 75% program completion is completely useless when having a discussion about population coverage of double vaccinations (or even single) because the 75% figure is made up of both values with one decreasing in rate (because there aren't many left to do), and a second that in increasing in rate because its all that's left. Simply put that 75% figure could have 60% double vaccinated it could have 25% both are very different coverage and protections levels. Reality is its about 67.2% but again thats not particularly useful (but more helpful) when trying to work out where we are in relation to 70-80% target figure because it removes the under 18's which are needed to get to that 70. So in reality regardless of if the program is at 75% only 50% of the population are double vaccinated and thats the figure that matters in determining the risk of opening. The virus doesnt care how many people are vaccinated or the governments program it only cares about how many are left as a possibly vectors of transmission.

This is where the problem with stats always comes in, people provide figures that whilst technically true don't actually provide any relevance to the question at hand. It drives me bloody loopy.

 

[Reiser99]

Btw, managed to move my 2nd appointment from 11 weeks down to 8 weeks. Might as well if there is capacity.

 

[saulan]

Btw, managed to move my 2nd appointment from 11 weeks down to 8 weeks. Might as well if there is capacity.

I've done the same, would highly recommend anyone who has their vaccination booked 11 weeks away from their first vaccination look to see if there is something 4 weeks earlier (which there highly likely is given their restriction preventing that time between earlier was a lock to 11 weeks). I dropped down from 5 September to 15 August.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Btw, managed to move my 2nd appointment from 11 weeks down to 8 weeks. Might as well if there is capacity.

Did you cancel before rebooking?
I just checked mine and it said I can't get in where I'm booked any sooner so would need to fully cancel and then it'll show me alternatives
I'm happy enough to do that because it's a bit awkward to get to, but equally a bit paranoid I'll cancel and it'll say "Right, next one we've got for Pfizer is in September" or something, and I'll end up waiting longer

 

[saulan]

Did you cancel before rebooking?
I just checked mine and it said I can't get in where I'm booked any sooner so would need to fully cancel and then it'll show me alternatives
I'm happy enough to do that because it's a bit awkward to get to, but equally a bit paranoid I'll cancel and it'll say "Right, next one we've got for Pfizer is in September" or something, and I'll end up waiting longer

For me it showed me the options of alternatives of all places around before I cancelled my existing booking (and not just the place I had booked). I don't know if that is a function of London having loads of vaccination spots vs other areas or not.

Edit: Based on Olyy's experience below, I think I'm misremembering the process, and it likely did show me the venue I booked only (which had three weeks earlier), but then only after cancelling did it show me a list of all the other places which also had three week earlier appointments which were closer to me.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Can book AZ here from Monday as u30s. I probably won't, 12 week wait and all that. Let the rest of them rush into the AZ and either pick up the next round of Jannsen or Pfizer, 4 week wait for second jab, when its available to book in August.

Wanting to travel to meet friends who are moving to Madrid and Amsterdam is definitely affecting my decis.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Ended up cancelling mine then rebooking the exact same slot, ha

Could've gotten it a week earlier at a closer centre, but they were only doing mid-weeks and I can only do weekend

 

[Reiser99]

Did you cancel before rebooking?
I just checked mine and it said I can't get in where I'm booked any sooner so would need to fully cancel and then it'll show me alternatives
I'm happy enough to do that because it's a bit awkward to get to, but equally a bit paranoid I'll cancel and it'll say "Right, next one we've got for Pfizer is in September" or something, and I'll end up waiting longer

Mine just showed me earlier appointments at the same place. Only after I cancelled and started to rebook did it give me other alternatives. Shame you couldn't get it earlier.

 

[General Melchett]

When you book your second jab does the NHS booking system know to only show venues that will have the same vaccine type available as received for the first jab?

 

[Reiser99]

When you book your second jab does the NHS booking system know to only show venues that will have the same vaccine type available as received for the first jab?

Dunno. Mine came up with more than the first time, but I stayed with the same place as I know I can park and it's easy to get to.

 

[saulan]

When you book your second jab does the NHS booking system know to only show venues that will have the same vaccine type available as received for the first jab?

I definitely didn't give it any inputs on this and they already have the data of which vaccine you got in the first round, I'd imagine it's doing the tracking of that itself and then presenting you with the options around you.

I do know that the venue closest to me seems to only do AZ and with me being under 30, it never showed that place as an option.

 

[General Melchett]

Dunno. Mine came up with more than the first time, but I stayed with the same place as I know I can park and it's easy to get to.

I assume they will be able to ensure that the right vaccine types are available on the right day and at the right venue based on people's vaccination records.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I do know that the venue closest to me seems to only do AZ and with me being under 30, it never showed that place as an option.

Same with mine - there's a vaccine centre on the outskirts of my village but they only do AZ (and more recently Moderna).
Didn't show up as an option when I booked my first round and didn't show up this time round either

I'm not too fussed about waiting tbh, it's 2nd week of August so not a million miles away - just wanted to find a better located one, really, cause I imagine parking is going to be a nightmare at this one on a Saturday mid-morning

 

[General Melchett]

I definitely didn't give it any inputs on this and they already have the data of which vaccine you got in the first round, I'd imagine it's doing the tracking of that itself and then presenting you with the options around you.

I do know that the venue closest to me seems to only do AZ and with me being under 30, it never showed that place as an option.

Yeah this makes sense. Their booking system coupled with access to people's first dose vaccination records should tell them the quantities of (second dose) vaccine types needed on each day at each venue.

 

[Reiser99]

I realised why the government making wearing a mask a personal choice seems so familiar.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-52615211 - May 2020

https://www.ft.com/content/df14c89b-6cab-464b-ad15-fe9c45fb0f42 - October 2020

Which then leads to things like this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-56588196 - May 2021

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/23/are-britons-too-freedom-loving-to-follow-covid-rules - September 2020

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-22...-together-if-tougher-covid-rules-are-followed - September 2020

Basically we are back to, if this all goes pear-shape it's the public's fault for not using their common sense and not the government's.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Nothing wrong with Oxford AZ if it is available. Vaccine snobbery.