All Black new cap contenders

[TobesHodges]

Nehe Milner-Scudder could be in contention for 15? Has immense rugby talent..

 

[MotherRucker1]

He's playing amazingly well. Might miss out this year due to being a world cup year. Think more established options like Ben Smith would be first pick. Or even Dagg, who I know the forum doesn't like but I'm talking from Hansen's lens.

 

[Shaggy]

He's playing amazingly well. Might miss out this year due to being a world cup year. Think more established options like Ben Smith would be first pick. Or even Dagg, who I know the forum doesn't like but I'm talking from Hansen's lens.

Some on the forum don't like Dagg (I'm not one of them), he'd have to be playing significantly worse than the rest, to miss out to be honest - he seems to be playing pretty well, but he needs to stay injury free of course

 

[Jack Reacher]

Not a bolter but Andy Ellis is surely our number 2/3 halfback - he is pretty much running the ship in Canterbury. Got to be ahead of last years third choice Pulu anyhow.
Heartening to see Nonu, Dagg, Jane and Carter finding some form too.

 

[Icemn]

i really like the Chiefs left winger James Lowe and the canes fullback nehe milner-skudder!! be on the lookout for them.. can we maybe add Colin Slade to the mix

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Not a bolter but Andy Ellis is surely our number 2/3 halfback - he is pretty much running the ship in Canterbury. Got to be ahead of last years third choice Pulu anyhow.
Heartening to see Nonu, Dagg, Jane and Carter finding some form too.

While I'd agree he's ahead of Pulu, Ellis has been pretty average in every game except for the latest match against the Sharks.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

I would say people come across like they don't like Dagg because he seemed to really struggle to lose his jersey for a while there, selected on potential/past form rather than actual form for too long. no problem with him being in the mix when he's on form and working hard

 

[Shaggy]

I would say people come across like they don't like Dagg because he seemed to really struggle to lose his jersey for a while there, selected on potential/past form rather than actual form for too long. no problem with him being in the mix when he's on form and working hard

Well, the counter argument is that he has the international experience ... what "form" constitutes "actual form" anyway? Are we talking Super Rugby, because if so, Nonu would have been discarded a couple of seasons ago. I'm not sure that Dagg has been struggling to lose the Jersey either. He only became the incumbent in 2011 after displacing Mils Muliana, and the selectors didn't have a problem selecting Ben Smith ahead of him for some of the matches last year. How long is "too long" to persevere with an experienced player anyway? ... It's easier to answer that in hindsight, than in the moment, when the selection has to be made.

It might seem that I'm pushing Dagg's barrow a bit here, but I still see him as one of the two best proven fullbacks in NZ, and as such, should be in the selection mix.

An awful lot of the negativity towards Dagg seems to have culminated after that missed tackle on May in the November test against England last year, but May also got through Conrad Smith, but there was no calling for him to be replaced. That whole tour was used to try out combinations, and try to nail down positions in the RWC anyway, so playing Ben Smith at full back for all of the games, probably wouldn't have helped the long term cause much.

As for bolters getting selected, I'd expect that the selectors will show their hand in the Samoan test, so if they are seriously looking at Milner-Scudder etc, I'd expect to see it then

 

[Kiwiwomble]

you did read the bit where i said i have no problem being in the mix aye?

I don't think its out of line to expect people to be playing well to be selected. At the moment he's pretty good so get him in the squad, i thought most people saw in hind sight that Smith was playing better than dagg for a fair bit of 2012 and 2013 and yet Dagg was still preferred at 15

 

[MotherRucker1]

It also depends on strategy and who is best equipped to meet the objectives against a specific team. Even when Dagg was awfully out of form, he was and is still a better kicker than Smith (that's not to say Smith is bad, but he doesn't get the same length). Kicking shouldn't be viewed in isolation to other factors, but it can be a huge part of how the ABs might approach a game. Don't underestimate the territory game. At times Dagg's tactical kicking is better than any number 10 that we have.

I agree with Shaggy. Dagg ain't perfect, or hasn't been in recent years. He isn't a classic tackler, I realize that. But sometimes in the past people on the forum have exaggerated about his flaws. Like he said, Conrad Smith also could have tackled May and failed to. Conrad did something similar in the game against the Stormers. No one really calls him up on it. But when Dagg makes a human mistake, "oh my god, out of form, drop him!"

Were there times where Dagg was being picked on reputation? Probably. Same could be said for McCaw, Carter, Nonu and plenty of players in the past.

 

[Shaggy]

you did read the bit where i said i have no problem being in the mix aye?

I don't think its out of line to expect people to be playing well to be selected. At the moment he's pretty good so get him in the squad, i thought most people saw in hind sight that Smith was playing better than dagg for a fair bit of 2012 and 2013 and yet Dagg was still preferred at 15

Yes, I saw the part about him being in the mix - my comments were in response to why you thought people didn't like Dagg. There were definitely people on here calling for him to be axed altogether.

As for the 2012/2013 Smith thing, as I've said on other threads, a number of games that Dagg played were without Dan Carter at 10, so there was an increased reliance on Dagg's tactical kicking, this combined with Smith also being the best Right Wing option (and wasn't he also required to cover 13 in C.Smith's absence) - I have never said on any thread that Dagg is better, or that it has to be Dagg or Smith, I've always said both ... providing they are both in form, and are the best options come selection time.

 

[nickdnz]

For the record I still think Dagg is average - and it has nothing to do with missing May last year. It's to do with his almost his entire performance since late 2012. He misses tackles more than any other fullback I can recall. He has only had to make 2 tackles this entire Super Rugby season in 277 minutes played, because he is so hidden in defense.

Last year for the All Blacks he made a total of:

13 tackles and missed 6. For all matches played. So for the 7 games he played - he was required to make less than two tackles per game. And he still only manages a tackle rate of 68%.

Compare this to the apparently defensively frail Willie Le Roux who made 28 tackles and missed only 3 (averaging 2.8 tackles per game at 96%).

Made/Missed
Israel Folau: 16/5 (76%)
Leigh Halfpenny: 20/4 (83%)
Rob Kearney: 26/10 (72%)
Stuart Hogg: 28/6 (82%)
Andrea Masi: 38/4 (90%)
Mike Brown: 23/4 (85%)
Scott Spedding: 14/5 (74%).
Juan Martin Hernandez: 39/12 (76%)

This list was compiled from data from last years June series to this years 6 Nations. What it shows is that when I say Dagg's defense is bad, I mean it is worse than any other fullback playing international rugby for a tier 1 nation! Not only is his accuracy terrible, his work rate on defense is frankly average too (again, only 2 tackles so far this entire Super Rugby season!!!!!!). His defense is actually getting worse.

Add to that he's not particularly great on attack anymore. In 2011 - sure he was great. Now he's predictable. And because he has found some semblance of attacking form in this Super Rugby season, does not mean he is our best attacking option or that he'll ever be Dagg circa 2011. He has a punt (which is certainly less ambitious and accurate than it was in 2012), and is good under the high ball. That's what he offers, but it's not as if other options aren't also.

 

[austingtir]

Yes, I saw the part about him being in the mix - my comments were in response to why you thought people didn't like Dagg. There were definitely people on here calling for him to be axed altogether.

As for the 2012/2013 Smith thing, as I've said on other threads, a number of games that Dagg played were without Dan Carter at 10, so there was an increased reliance on Dagg's tactical kicking, this combined with Smith also being the best Right Wing option (and wasn't he also required to cover 13 in C.Smith's absence) - I have never said on any thread that Dagg is better, or that it has to be Dagg or Smith, I've always said both ... providing they are both in form, and are the best options come selection time.

The major difference for me this year is Jane is going to be hard not to select especially in crunch WC games. His aerial skills and subtle touches are THE best in the world bar none imo. For whatever reason he wasnt right last year. Just like Ben Smith on the end of year tour last year.

The post above is very interesting regarding Daggs defence and I will be watching Saders games more carefully to see if he is getting almost hidden on defence a bit like Quade Cooper was at one stage. There was a stage last year where I felt once any decent wing or center breached the first line and Dagg had to actually tackle someone he missed way more than he made and some of them were downright feeble attempts.

I still have NO FRIKIN IDEA why he got selected ahead of Ben Smith at fullback last year.... There was no logical explanation other than the wing options werent good enough.
So I figure now that Jane is upto speed again I wonder weather unless Dagg has some huge reversal how Hansen can select him....

This is heading a bit like the Mills vs Dagg at the 2011 WC for me. Mills was getting a tad past it and Dagg was outstanding and Mills seemed to almost step aside because he knew he wasnt the best option.... I dont see Dagg doing that so I hope Hansen doesnt mess Ben Smith around much more.

 

[jessta]

People question daggs ability because he is a mere shadow of the player he was in 2011 when he pushed mills and became the incumbent. It has nothing to do with him missing a tackle on may. He was electrifying in 2011 and probably the best back for the all blacks all tournament. Could of been IRB player of the year. Since then we see glimpses of his old self but he's Defs not the same player

 

[MotherRucker1]

Add to that he's not particularly great on attack anymore. In 2011 - sure he was great. Now he's predictable. And because he has found some semblance of attacking form in this Super Rugby season, does not mean he is our best attacking option or that he'll ever be Dagg circa 2011. He has a punt (which is certainly less ambitious and accurate than it was in 2012), and is good under the high ball. That's what he offers, but it's not as if other options aren't also.

He's no more predictable than what Ben Smith is if you actually read the stats. He doesn't just have a massive punt and nothing else. You didn't say that, but it looked like it was implied. I just took a sample of 4 matches that each player has played this season. Dagg made 445 meters in running, Smith made 247. Dagg made 8 clean breaks, Smith made 3. Both players in this random sample had beaten 14 players overall. Dagg made 6 offloads, Smith made 7. Dagg has two tries and one try assist, Smith has 1 try. He's pretty even with Ben Smith, and in some areas of attack he's actually whooping him. I didn't pick specific matches that either one did well or poorly in, just randomly picked 4 matches each and gave them a comparison. Some of his attack stats, at least in Super rugby, aren't dramatically different. Maybe not quite the try scoring machine, but the last few weeks he's contributed with points f'sure. In some more specific areas, he's even better than 2011.

I take your point about the tackling. What isn't told in the stats is defensive patterns, the fact that one player has had the luxuary of playing consecutive games, another has had a stop-start season. Even the stats I provided don't provide the full context. I understand 2 is extremely low. And I accept that it is too low. But frankly, I don't want my fullback racing up out of position to be a tackling machine and a hero. That's just another way tries can be conceded. I know you aren't suggesting that, but some backline players do that I wouldn't want him to go down that route either.

 

[austingtir]

He's no more predictable than what Ben Smith is if you actually read the stats. He doesn't just have a massive punt and nothing else. You didn't say that, but it looked like it was implied. I just took a sample of 4 matches that each player has played this season. Dagg made 445 meters in running, Smith made 247. Dagg made 8 clean breaks, Smith made 3. Both players in this random sample had beaten 14 players overall. Dagg made 6 offloads, Smith made 7. Dagg has two tries and one try assist, Smith has 1 try. He's pretty even with Ben Smith, and in some areas of attack he's actually whooping him. I didn't pick specific matches that either one did well or poorly in, just randomly picked 4 matches each and gave them a comparison. Some of his attack stats, at least in Super rugby, aren't dramatically different. Maybe not quite the try scoring machine, but the last few weeks he's contributed with points f'sure. In some more specific areas, he's even better than 2011.

I take your point about the tackling. What isn't told in the stats is defensive patterns, the fact that one player has had the luxuary of playing consecutive games, another has had a stop-start season. Even the stats I provided don't provide the full context. I understand 2 is extremely low. And I accept that it is too low. But frankly, I don't want my fullback racing up out of position to be a tackling machine and a hero. That's just another way tries can be conceded. I know you aren't suggesting that, but some backline players do that I wouldn't want him to go down that route either.

The difference is the Highlanders backline is stacked with players that can brake the line almost at will. The Crusaders is not. I think if Ben Smith was playing for the Saders the stats would be reversed because B Smith would be carrying that team. This season at the Landers is one of the first that Ben isnt left to do damn near everything and they are far better balanced hence why they are actually winning games now. So yeah I dont read much into those stats.

Dagg is only any good on attack when he's one on one or can get his goosey step thing going on other than that or with multiple defenders he's hopeless. The Crusaders overwork Dagg because the only other real option is Nadolo or their very good forwards. Smith is consistently breaking through extremely good tacklers and attracts defenders like a magnet as he's sure to go through the first guy nearly everytime thats the difference. So again I dont read much into these stats as the defence is having to work harder to contain Smith.

 

[nzlizard]

Stats aside, just watching rugby for the last 3 years it is easily Smith > Dagg in all areas but the big punt.

Smith can play multiple positions with ease whereas Dagg is only really a FB.

Thing to remember that when Dagg pushed Mils out, Mils was 30 and Dagg was 22ish?

Everything else has already been said.

 

[MotherRucker1]

Yep, some good points about Dagg. Austin, I agree with that. There probably is pressure on guys like Slade and Dagg. The backline isn't jam packed full of stars and in form players. Our midfield isn't setting the world alight, and I thought our winger was poor last week (not Nadolo, the other fella). And I don't dispute the tackling thing.

Like I was saying though, I just think certain things about Dagg get exaggerated. It's easy to conflate issues. If you want to construct an argument that Ben Smith is better at the back because his tackling is more reliable, he's a really good last line of defense then I get that. But to start saying all of Smith's attacking abilities are better is not true. He does more things better than Ben Smith than just kick the ball a long way. That seems to be an inaccurate myth that has developed on the site.

 

[nickdnz]

He's no more predictable than what Ben Smith is if you actually read the stats. He doesn't just have a massive punt and nothing else. You didn't say that, but it looked like it was implied. I just took a sample of 4 matches that each player has played this season. Dagg made 445 meters in running, Smith made 247. Dagg made 8 clean breaks, Smith made 3. Both players in this random sample had beaten 14 players overall. Dagg made 6 offloads, Smith made 7. Dagg has two tries and one try assist, Smith has 1 try. He's pretty even with Ben Smith, and in some areas of attack he's actually whooping him. I didn't pick specific matches that either one did well or poorly in, just randomly picked 4 matches each and gave them a comparison. Some of his attack stats, at least in Super rugby, aren't dramatically different. Maybe not quite the try scoring machine, but the last few weeks he's contributed with points f'sure. In some more specific areas, he's even better than 2011.

I take your point about the tackling. What isn't told in the stats is defensive patterns, the fact that one player has had the luxuary of playing consecutive games, another has had a stop-start season. Even the stats I provided don't provide the full context. I understand 2 is extremely low. And I accept that it is too low. But frankly, I don't want my fullback racing up out of position to be a tackling machine and a hero. That's just another way tries can be conceded. I know you aren't suggesting that, but some backline players do that I wouldn't want him to go down that route either.

If we want to average Ben Smith v Israel Dagg's performance this season (which isn't particularly helpful considering how low the sample size is after only 4 games by Dagg and 6 by Smith). The Crusaders v Sharks game as an outlier throws the stats pretty far off.

Dagg:
Total tries: 2
Average carries per game: 12.25
Average metres per game: 111m
Average clean breaks per game: 2
Average defenders beaten per game: 3.5
Average offloads per game: 1.5
Total try assist: 1

Smith:
Total tries: 1
Average carries per game: 11.8
Average metres per game: 64m
Average clean breaks per game: 1.2
Average defenders beaten per game: 3.2
Average offloads per game: 2
Total try assist: 0

This does look good for Dagg - until you factor in Ben Smith has got 7x the defensive workload as Dagg. And then look at Dagg's stats minus the Sharks game. If we look at last years stats Ben Smith probably has the best overall stats in the comp.

Like I was saying though, I just think certain things about Dagg get exaggerated. It's easy to conflate issues. If you want to construct an argument that Ben Smith is better at the back because his tackling is more reliable, he's a really good last line of defense then I get that. But to start saying all of Smith's attacking abilities are better is not true. He does more things better than Ben Smith than just kick the ball a long way. That seems to be an inaccurate myth that has developed on the site.

Looking past the stats, what's most frustrating with Dagg is actually the stuff which doesn't appear looking at the numbers. The number of opportunities he gets caught behind the advantage line, because he jogged up, tried the same goose step and gets tackled. The number of times he blew try scoring opportunities because he can't pass left (which either flies into the stands or ends up as a floating hospital pass). I'm not even a Ben Smith fan boy, but he is strong in contact and jinks past the advantage line. He can pass well off both hands and has excellent support play. I don't think Ben Smith is the player Dagg was in 2011 - but Dagg is so far behind what he was. We're simply going to have to agree to disagree on this one I'm afraid.

 

[Shaggy]

Great stats... I didn't realise that Dagg was so bad ... does anybody know the All Black game winning percentage when Dagg has started at fullback.

Also great explanations as to why his attacking percentages are largely irrelevant due to the super side he's playing in, compared to the side the other guy is playing in, or discounting blow out games against the Sharks, because they haven't beaten any sides at home this season have they ... of course, as it's ok to explain away his good stats, you'd off course, mention the injuries he's been carrying during the time of your sample(s), or that he's returning from, or even the head to head Crusaders V Highlanders match in which both Dagg and Smith played.

Anyway Dagg's stats look pretty good for someone who jogs up, uses the same goose step, gets caught behind the advantage line, can't pass to the left, and doesn't carry the ball in two hands.

I also looked for these facts but couldn't find them:

The percentage of fans that understand that professional rugby is now about the squad selected, not about what you perceive to be the strongest run on XV.

The percentage of fans the fact that player rotation (yes I used the "R" word) is a fact of life now, and that the same starting XV cannot be used for every match.

The concept that it is possible (in fact likely) that both players in any head to head argument can be included in the squad.

... Those that expect that B.Smith (or insert your favourite player, in their favoured position here) will start every game at fullback, come RWC tiime, are going to be sorely disappointed.

I am not president of the I.Dagg fan club, nor do I dislike B.Smith, just feel there's room for them both (we need them both, unless someone else comes through).