A Political Thread

[TRF_Olyy]

So are you saying momentum run the labour party, if so I cant see the labour party winning the next election either, they could pick someone centre left, but far left is not the way to win an election, we are not living in the 30s when times were hard for all the working classes.

To an extent - yes.
With the way the Labour leadership is picked it's the people with the strongest feelings/most passionate politics that have taken the effort to sign up to the party that have the say - and at the moment these people are passionate about Corbyn's vision so will likely look to replace him with as like for like as they can.
As mentioned many times above, there needs to be compromise and these members need to understand that their views (or the leaders they pick, at least - I believe if you presented a lot of Labours policies under a different banner most people would love them) are not going to win over the people they've lost/the people sitting on the fence.
I can understand why they don't want to compromise on their beliefs, but, as above, I don't agree with it. Better to have a little of what you want and work for more than have none of it and be stuck under a Tory majority for the next half decade.

 

[ncurd]

Alot of what you say is fair but I want to pick out a couple that I take exception to.

today many just hold their hand out and expect

Thats an overtly simplistic view of the world and bad one at that. I know a few people that are dependent on the state to survive, not a single one expects it to be handed out to them and are in situations where if it wasn't they'd be in very dire circumstances. The idea people expect handouts in a false one.

but as the labour party found out this election, majorities rule

Actually what happen this election is they found out majorities don't rule. 53.9% of the country (UK not NI) voted for parties which backed a second referendum yet due to foibles of FPTP that completely off the cards because of stonking return the Tories got due to concentrated vote on that issue.

 

[ncurd]

As usual when this topic comes up no party has had IMO a democratic mandate for an overall majority since 1931

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1931_United_Kingdom_general_election

And even then seats Baldwin's government yielded was complete out of proportion to the vote he won.

 

[Reiser99]

Vaizey is a Tory, has never been a LD and is no longer an MP

I think you mean Davy, who's great but has exactly the same problems as Swinson but a man so will get slightly less a rough ride.

Yeah sorry Davy. Not a long term solution though.

 

[Dai Yorkshire]

Alot of what you say is fair but I want to pick out a couple that I take exception to.Thats an overtly simplistic view of the world and bad one at that. I know a few people that are dependent on the state to survive, not a single one expects it to be handed out to them and are in situations where if it wasn't they'd be in very dire circumstances. The idea people expect handouts in a false one.Actually what happen this election is they found out majorities don't rule. 53.9% of the country (UK not NI) voted for parties which backed a second referendum yet due to foibles of FPTP that completely off the cards because of stonking return the Tories got due to concentrated vote on that issue.

Divide and conquer springs to mind, I cant see how you can include labour, as no one knew how they were going to vote, not even them, On, the second point, I've known people that have been on the dole for years. Which are quite happy to remain there.

 

[Reiser99]

Jess Phillips isn't Northern...

There does seem to be some momentum growing behind her, though.
I've seen a lot suggesting Starmer as leader and JP deputy, as well

My bad, not northern, but also not London. Definitely don't think it will harm her being from Birmingham.

 

[Which Tyler]

And so it begins

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/damian-green-social-care-insurance-lbc-1-6425258
Tory MP calls for social care insurance for 'those who can afford it'

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ronment-climate-change-election-a9248611.html
Boris Johnson could ditch promise to protect workers' rights and environmental protections after Brexit, No 10 suggests

 

[Reiser99]

And so it begins

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/damian-green-social-care-insurance-lbc-1-6425258
Tory MP calls for social care insurance for 'those who can afford it'

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ronment-climate-change-election-a9248611.html
Boris Johnson could ditch promise to protect workers' rights and environmental protections after Brexit, No 10 suggests

Well if this is a taste of things to come Labour will have a shot in 5 years.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Don't rely on Scotland to do anyone a favour. I'm a little surprised at the strength of the SNP vote up here, but it was in large part a protest from an electorate that is increasingly tuning out from what the UK media outlets put infront of us. By voting 'No' to independence Scotland actually democratically endorsed the Union for the first time ever (which in some ways is quite a healthy thing in my opinion, even though I was a 'Yes' voter). But that vote also endorsed Scotland's position as having no say on a raft of policy areas, including constitutional ones (which is not a healthy thing, but that is what a 'No' vote meant). I can see the Conservatives easily denying a second referendum without the merest hint of it resulting in political unrest here.

In some crazy hypothetical world where Scotland became independent, then membership of the EU would likely be a formality if we haven't diverged significantly from EU operating practices by then - but that really is academic.

Plus, the timing is truly crap. Renewable energy is becoming cheaper than fossil fuels, but it hasn't yet turned into a cash cow, and that probably won't happen for at least 15-20 years and the Scottish government is limited in how it can aid the development of it (and I believe Westminster cut research & development in the renewable sector).

But, if anyone wants to live in a country still clinging on to centrist tendencies without having to learn a new language, then the doors are open gentlemen. In my youth there was some pathetic anti-English sentiment in some sections of society (be it hostile or lighter hearted, but still ignorant), but with devolution, and Scottish people largely running Scottish domestic affairs, that particular boil appears to have been lanced - I haven't heard a remark of that kind in the past 5 years. Boris is reviled for a number of reasons, none of which relate to his nationality. Heck, we might even get Rangers & Celtic fans jointly singing songs against Boris filling the Irish Sea with red-tape.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

@brucemagoose - and Scottish Income tax rates are barmy.

 

[Brigantine]

Thanks to the data compilation by Electoral Calculus, I was able to check how many seats the 2nd referendum parties had 50%+1 in vs the pro-brexit parties.

The hypothetical question this is supposed to answer is, if Labour, Lib Dems, Green etc. all pooled their votes where it mattered, AND the Tories, Brexit Party etc. all pooled their votes, how would the election have gone.
It isn't really of any real significance, but hey I was curious and I had the data.

First count:
Pro 2nd referendum parties included: Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Alliance, Sinn Fein (also includes the speaker)

• >50% in 302 seats (incl 42 Tory seats, and the 7 Sinn Fein non-sitting MPs)
• below 50% but ahead of the pro-brexit parties in another 13 seats (incl 10 more Tory seats)

Pro brexit parties included: Conservatives, Brexit Party, UUP, DUP

• >50% in 322 seats (incl 1 Scottish Tory seat, 11 Labour seats, and the Alliance seat)
• below 50% but ahead of the pro-2nd referendum parties in another 13 seats (incl 2 more Labour seats)

That result isn't enough to answer the question though, because neither group has a majority, and some of those 26 seats where both groups are below 50% have other candidates from e.g. Independent Group for Change or UKIP which aren't exactly neutral on brexit.

The thing that resolves it is including the Yorkshire Party in the pro-brexit group, even though they only got ~1000 votes in each seat, that's enough to brings the group to >50% in an additional 4 seats, bringing the total to 326, which is a majority.
So even though the pro 2nd referendum parties have >50% of the votes overall, they aren't in the right places for a FPTP election.
(Though if the pro brexit parties *didn't* also co-operate, the pro 2nd referendum group did have enough votes to win in 345 seats. LAB 246, SNP 53, LIB 28, SF 8, PC 4, SDLP 3, Alliance 2, Green 1)


In case anyone wants to figure out the last 22 seats, in 20 of them including one other candidate would bring one group or the other to 50%: Independent Group for Change, David Gauke, the Liberal Party, Aontu, North East Party, UKIP (x2), Libertarian, Animal Welfare Party, Monster Raving Loony Party, Gwlad Gwlad, Ashfield Independents, Heavy Woollen District Independents, Burnley & Padiham Independent Party, Edmund Fordham, Chris Williamson, Watts Stelling, Anne Milton, Paul Crosland, Scott Marmion. Then Bury South and Esher and Walton depend on multiple other candidates.

 

[McTallshort]

Thanks to the data compilation by Electoral Calculus, I was able to check how many seats the 2nd referendum parties had 50%+1 in vs the pro-brexit parties.

The hypothetical question this is supposed to answer is, if Labour, Lib Dems, Green etc. all pooled their votes where it mattered, AND the Tories, Brexit Party etc. all pooled their votes, how would the election have gone.
It isn't really of any real significance, but hey I was curious and I had the data.

First count:
Pro 2nd referendum parties included: Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Alliance, Sinn Fein (also includes the speaker)

• >50% in 302 seats (incl 42 Tory seats, and the 7 Sinn Fein non-sitting MPs)
• below 50% but ahead of the pro-brexit parties in another 13 seats (incl 10 more Tory seats)

Pro brexit parties included: Conservatives, Brexit Party, UUP, DUP

• >50% in 322 seats (incl 1 Scottish Tory seat, 11 Labour seats, and the Alliance seat)
• below 50% but ahead of the pro-2nd referendum parties in another 13 seats (incl 2 more Labour seats)

That result isn't enough to answer the question though, because neither group has a majority, and some of those 26 seats where both groups are below 50% have other candidates from e.g. Independent Group for Change or UKIP which aren't exactly neutral on brexit.

The thing that resolves it is including the Yorkshire Party in the pro-brexit group, even though they only got ~1000 votes in each seat, that's enough to brings the group to >50% in an additional 4 seats, bringing the total to 326, which is a majority.
So even though the pro 2nd referendum parties have >50% of the votes overall, they aren't in the right places for a FPTP election.
(Though if the pro brexit parties *didn't* also co-operate, the pro 2nd referendum group did have enough votes to win in 345 seats. LAB 246, SNP 53, LIB 28, SF 8, PC 4, SDLP 3, Alliance 2, Green 1)


In case anyone wants to figure out the last 22 seats, in 20 of them including one other candidate would bring one group or the other to 50%: Independent Group for Change, David Gauke, the Liberal Party, Aontu, North East Party, UKIP (x2), Libertarian, Animal Welfare Party, Monster Raving Loony Party, Gwlad Gwlad, Ashfield Independents, Heavy Woollen District Independents, Burnley & Padiham Independent Party, Edmund Fordham, Chris Williamson, Watts Stelling, Anne Milton, Paul Crosland, Scott Marmion. Then Bury South and Esher and Walton depend on multiple other candidates.

And?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Wrap it up lads, no more discussing politics in the....*checks notes*.... politics thread?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Zac Goldsmith, what a story. Son of humble billionaire, at 23 made editor of a magazine (owned by his uncle), gets Tory nom for leafy London seat at 32, loses the seat twice in 3 years, (also losing London mayoral race). Elevated to the House of Lords. Truly, the British dream.

https://twitter.com/nickfthilton/status/1206883862535704576

 

[Amiga500]

Just needs a "Sir" or "Lord of the Admiralty" in front of his name to gain his full seal of ineptitude.

[with additional Brucie Bonus points for getting both]

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Gotta love the irony of him losing his seat so being promoted to house of lords so he can keep his cabinet position.

uNeLEcTeD BeUrOcRaTs

 

[Which Tyler]

10.45 tonight, ITV

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Nicky Morgan now a Baroness so gets to keep her cabinet position as well - after saying she wouldn't work under BoJo.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

10.45 tonight, ITV

Did anyone watch this?
Past my bedtime, unfortunately, but a lot of people raging on social media.