A Political Thread

[Brigantine]

Barnsley East - the Brexit party actually managed to come 2nd in a seat. Still 8.4% behind Labour though.
Barnsley Central too - 2nd on 30%, still 10 points behind Labour.
Blaenau Gwent - just nudged 2nd with 21%, not that it matters because Labour is on 49% there.

The Exit Poll is standing up really well so far, headline predictions haven't changed at all yet.

[EDIT - They got Ynys Mon wrong. AFAICT that's the first miss by the exit poll, and the last Labour seat in northern Wales now gone]

 

[ncurd]

Mid evening wake up

Exit poll out by 10 so far giving Johnson slightly less a majority. Not shifting enough but was never going to.

Swinson lost her seat for now the second time so must be done politically.

Raab keeps his seat.

Corbyn apparently sounding like he wants to cling to power, what the serious ****?

 

[ncurd]

Fantastic news if the results match the exit polls.

I know you came to troll. Still genuine question. What in Johnson's conduct over the course of this election and campaign he ran make him deserve a majority where he can do pretty much what he likes.

Please don't mention other parties, their leaders or cliché.

I say this because the only conservative voters I know have been outright appalled by it all.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Well Labour just hit 200, so they've got that going for them...

 

[ncurd]

Well Labour just hit 200, so they've got that going for them...

Not going to hit Foot of 1983 (209) it's a complete **** show.

Only good news is the DUP are being shafted.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

So a labour/lib dem/snp/green alliance it is then

 

[ncurd]

So a labour/lib dem/snp/green alliance it is then

Think we are waving goodbye to Scotland but yes.

Lib Dems need a leader who starts off with olive branch to Labour. A clear strategy for the next 5 years and absolutely needs someone not tainted by coalition. Don't know if we have someone who meets that criteria and is sellable to the public.

Labour needs to ask an existential question do they want to be want to be a national party in which case that requires absolutely a shift to the right and properly vetting their leader's capability to the rest of country. If they want another Corbyn they need to accept they'll need an alliance and stand down in seats.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

It's a ******* rough one, and I absolutely understand why it has to happen, but asking politicians to sell out their morals to appeal to the masses just seems wrong.

But then a dead centre labour party will still look like (and be accused of being) straight up communist compared to what BoJos Tories will be

 

[ncurd]

Cheltenham lost by less than 1000 votes

Way too many losses where a single candidate would of won easially. FPTP is a complete arse.

 

[Reiser99]

Well this is depressing. Wrote some thoughts about state of politics already, but in terms of this election campaign it seems the Tories got their message right and it was the one people wanted to hear. Brexit and no more delay. Whilst I think Conservatives were also to blame for the stagnation during the hung parliament, they (along with the media) successfully portrayed it as the other parties interfering.

Labour tried to switch the election to the NHS, but failed. However I think they were also too ambitious in their promises for renationalisation and it was too much for most people. I think they should have started smaller and promised more if initial projects were successful. Finally Corbyn was too divisive for many people and a poor leader trying to force everyone to his point of view, rather than meeting them in the middle. The Antisemitism also played a part, though I think in the end, less than it was made out to be.

Lib Dems got their message badly wrong and Jo Swinson saying she could be leader and would cancel Brexit would have meant a huge shift by the public since 2016 and it didn't resonate at all. However she was also tarred badly by her voting record and I think she apologised too much, instead of highlighting what the Lib Dems did well.

Anyway moving forward. Labour need a leader who can carry the middle and the far left (is that possible with how the far left behave?). Some of Corbyn's ideas resonated, but it needed to be tempered and more balanced.

Lib Dems need to find a new leader who preferably had nothing to do with the coalition. Not sure if there is anyone though. I also think they should try to steal Farage's thunder and focus again on electoral reform. Even if Brexit goes badly, going cap in hand back to the EU will not be a message people want to hear for quite a while.

Next 4-5 years are going to be dominated by Brexit/trade negotiations and I don't expect it to be the land of milk and honey promised. Scotland will try to leave again and quite probably NI too. Honestly if there is a fully united and prosperous Britain in 5-10 years time I'll be amazed.

 

[ncurd]

Oddly over 50% of the country voted for parties backing a second referendum.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Oddly over 50% of the country voted for parties backing a second referendum.

but split across Labour, Lib Dem, SNP remain parties to make a difference.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

BBC reporting 67% turnout. Slightly down compared to 2017.

 

[ncurd]

but split across Labour, Lib Dem, SNP remain parties to make a difference.

Yup remain is dead, the fight is now the future relationship. I'll likely always support rejoining but thats dead for 2 decades at the very least.

Only comfort is suggestions Johnson will move the party back towards the center now he's no longer in thrall to the ERG.....we'll see though.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I know rugby is a sport dominated by private school kids who've known nothing but an easy life, but I'm having to unfollow a lot of people on social media.

Courtney Lawes celebrating a BoJo win is particularly jarring considering the multitude of racist comments he's thrown about in the past

 

[ncurd]

Brian Moore is still fine.

Nothing bad in cricket front....yet many overseas mind.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Wales won't leave if Scotland they had a massive swing to the Tories.


Would be interested to know if any of the swing seats would've changed if Libs, Labour and Green had banded together. (even Plaid Cymru)

 

[ncurd]

Would be interested to know if any of the swing seats would've changed if Libs, Labour and Green had banded together. (even Plaid Cymru)

Its Labour and LD/Green/PC there was already an alliance and there are a bunch


Carshalton and Wallington (630 vote) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carshalton_and_Wallington_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Cheltenham (981 votes)
Finchley and Golders Green (6562 votes but only three parties in it) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finchley_and_Golders_Green_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Cities of London and Westminster (3,952 votes but Lab/LD compelte split add them up easy victory)
Kensington (150 votes)
Wimbledon (628 votes)

And those are just the ones with high profile LD's that I know of....could probably spend all day making a very large list. Many Labour seats probably lost or not turned in similar manners.

Report of Momentum bussing people into areas to be vincdictive, numerous reports of strong leafleting by LD's in areas they couldn't possibly win. Want to punch both Corbyn and Swinson over this.

 

[Brigantine]

Wales won't leave if Scotland they had a massive swing to the Tories.


Would be interested to know if any of the swing seats would've changed if Libs, Labour and Green had banded together. (even Plaid Cymru)

I looked at seats where the Tories won but got less than 45% of the vote. There were 16 where Lib+Lab+Grn > Tory (18 if you include SNP). Only 4 of them would depend on the brexit party not also banding together with the tories.
<examples 1 2 3 4 5 6> (4 are the same ones ncurd posted)

There might be some more in the 45-50% range, but I'm not gonna look through them all.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Could Wales leave?


Like not in terms of will they vote for it, but infrastructure-wise? They're far more tied to England/The UK than Scotland and NI are, right?