A Political Thread

[Which Tyler]

VONC today.

That means by the 18th Johnson is either forcibly stood down or has stood down.

Corbyn as PM by 19th. VONC in Corbyn on 19th.

Corbyn has the rest of the month to get an extension and has until the 2nd Nov to call a general election.

I think you misunderstand. If BJ loses a VONC today, Corbyn or ANOther (including BJ) has 14 days to put together a new government, which needs a majority of MP support (I think - may possibly be allowed to have a ho as a minority government, but I don't think that's the case - any abstentions in that process count as opposition, not support, and not null).

If that fails, parliament is dissolved. It no longer exists, but BJ remains OM and the cabinet remain as the cabine, and they are in charge of the GE timetables etc.
Which means that by October 19, we'd still have PM Johnson, but no parliament to hold him to account. Which is a bad thing.
You also get a GE on BJ's terms. Which is a bad thing.
Andwe (probably) leave the EU without any sort of a deal, which is a bad thing.

Of course, I reserve the right to be wrong, but the above is certainly understanding, based on everything I've seen from multiple experts.

Look at this farce:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49924755



Fines? Whoopee-f**king-do.

Given the damage it could do the country would outweigh that of any spy charged with treason, a bullet in the back of his head would be more applicable.

Also mentions prisons. Though that case is 100% about optics, and generating headlines. We already know the answer here. If the PM breaks the law, he is subject to the usual punishments for law breakers, which includes prison (according to literally everybody) IIRC the maximum sentence for contempt of court whilst in a public office, is life in prison (though he'd probably get the standard 2 years). He's unlikely to face a prison sentence initially (though he risks it even then), but he'd be court ordered within about 24 hours of refusing to send the extension request.

Although this holds some promise:


But we need that decision by the 16th - rolling on till near end of the month puts it into no mans land.

Yes, it's been suggested that the letter can be signed by someone else, or even unsigned, by it as far as I can tell, no-one's quite sure if it's A] true, or B] who'd need to sign it.

 

[Amiga500]

(I think - may possibly be allowed to have a ho as a minority government, but I don't think that's the case - any abstentions in that process count as opposition, not support, and not null).

From what I've read that is not the case - and that was the basis for the numbers I've been posting through this thread.

Simple majority vote.

If that fails, parliament is dissolved. It no longer exists, but BJ remains OM and the cabinet remain as the cabine, and they are in charge of the GE timetables etc.

Obviously if your understanding is correct and I'm in the wrong, a VONC would indeed be lunacy.

But I haven't seen anywhere talk about an abstain in VONC counting as a vote against.


https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN02873

also accompanying .pdf within that page.

I do note that from reading that, Corbyn could* form a government the day after a VONC in Johnson is passed by getting a VOC passed on his governance.

*I'm not quite sure how the technicalities of who proposes that in the house would work and scheduling for the debate.

 

[ncurd]

Your entire premise relies on abstentions actually happening without any guarantee they would so it remains lunacy regardless of where they count in a VONC.

 

[Amiga500]

Your entire premise relies on abstentions actually happening without any guarantee they would so it remains lunacy regardless of where they count in a VONC.

If they abstain or vote down Johnson, they aren't going to vote down Corbyn in the next motion.

Which means at worst, we are no worse off than we are today.


But you keep your head in the LibDem sandpit. Jo is doing everything* to stop a hard Brexit.

*except the one thing that would definitely stop a hard Brexit.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

So after impeachment process is started for Trump trying to get foreign governments to provide dirt on election rivals, Trump decides to go to another nation to do EXACTLY the same. Texts from US diplomats show how shocked they are at the whole farce.

The man is a lunatic.

 

[ncurd]

If they abstain or vote down Johnson, they aren't going to vote down Corbyn in the next motion.

This a hunch not a fact and if your hunch is wrong as @Which Tyler just explained in detail it leaves Johnson in more power not less and pretty much leaves us at his mercy. Nothing about what your saying is guaranteed.

 

[Amiga500]

This a hunch not a fact and if your hunch is wrong as @Which Tyler just explained in detail it leaves Johnson in more power not less and pretty much leaves us at his mercy. Nothing about what your saying is guaranteed.

Yeah, a hunch based on elementary logic.

 

[ncurd]

I have yet to see anything suggesting an MP abstaining from a vote (of either no-confidence or confidence) is counted as a vote against the motion.

Any evidence to produce?

Or just more #AlternateFacts

Are you deliberately being an idiot now? That is not what I said, I agree an abstaition is not counted against the motion as far as I'm aware. However

YOU DO NOT KNOW THAT THEY WILL ABSTAIN, you might think they will but there absolutely no guarantee they will. They have not said they will and if you are wrong Johnson is in control.

Get it through your ******* thick skull.

 

[Which Tyler]

My understanding is that a VONC requires a simple majority.
There is no vote to form a new government, you "merely" have to be able to command the "confidence of the house" AKA, a majority of sitting MPs (again, I think that's the case. I think that minority governments are only allowed to form post GE - but it's never been tested). FTR, a minority government is precisely what you're suggesting, to replace the current minority government - AKA, one which doesn't command the confidence of the house, but that not enough are willing to oppose.

An MP absolutely can vote against the government, and then not vote for whoever wants to succeed, especially as there's no actual vote taking place - jua as there was no vote to allow the current suppl and demand arrangement, or the previous coalition.

A successful VONC that fails to establish a GNU leaves us in, by far, the worst asw scenario.

 

[ncurd]

My understanding is that a VONC requires a simple majority.
There is no vote to form a new government, you "merely" have to be able to command the "confidence of the house" AKA, a majority of sitting MPs (again, I think that's the case. I think that minority governments are only allowed to form post GE - but it's never been tested).

An MP absolutely can vote against the government, and then not vote for whoever wants to succeed, especially as there's no actual vote taking place - jua as there was no vote to allow the current suppl and demand arrangement, or the previous coalition.

A successful VONC that fails to establish a GNU leaves us in, by far, the worst asw scenario.

A Queen's speech is a defacto VONC

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Opening_of_Parliament#Debate_on_the_speech

Minority governments, supply and demand, coalitions agreements still require the passing of a Queen's Speech.



Should a VONC succeed anyone who wishes to form a government need to show they prove have the confidence of the commons. Now the Queen could straight up invite that person to form a government if it is believed they would (this would be unlikely in present circumstances even if everyone bar the Tories publicly said they'd support that person). at which point they must prove they confience in the house of which I assume that person would submit a motion to the speaker who would agree for it to be voted on at a suitable timetable.

 

[ncurd]

Oh look Johnson is a bluffer what a surprise!

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49936352

 

[Amiga500]

A Queen's speech is a defacto VONC

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Opening_of_Parliament#Debate_on_the_speech

Minority governments, supply and demand, coalitions agreements still require the passing of a Queen's Speech.

A quick glance through parts of Erskine May (all of which is available on line) would suggest there is nothing that says either:
(i) a new parliament is required after a change in government after a VONC.
(ii) a new session is required after a change in government after a VONC (with the FTPA 2011).


and the FTPA (also available online) also does not mandate a new session after forming a new government.

 

[Reiser99]

Oh look Johnson is a bluffer what a surprise!

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49936352

apparently though he has just tweeted that Britain will still leave on the 31st whatever the outcome of the negotiations.

 

[ncurd]

A quick glance through parts of Erskine May (all of which is available on line) would suggest there is nothing that says either:
(i) a new parliament is required after a change in government after a VONC.
(ii) a new session is required after a change in government after a VONC (with the FTPA 2011).


and the FTPA (also available online) also does not mandate a new session after forming a new government.

Okay, but had nothing to do with the point I was making....I was merely pointing out after a election minority, coalition governments etc after an election as they do have to pass a Queens speech.


The other part is completely separate and doesn't really matter. Anyone wishing to form a government after a VONC has 14 days to show they have the confidence of the house. How exactly that's done is pretty much not important. It's unlikely to be Queens speech due to timeframes.

 

[ncurd]

Okay so FTPA which sets out in law how confidence motions work or don't work.

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted#section-2-3-b

Honestly I'm not a constitutional scholar or lawyer and would never pretend to be. A confidence vote as written is section 2-3 applies to HMG if Johnson refuses to resign and the Queen does not ask someone else to form a new government within 14 days. Nobody other than Johnson can pass anything with the text in section 2-5.

Making me worry even more about about a VONC as the correct thing to do as Johnson could in theory refuse to resign even if every MP voted against him. Force a GE election and dissolve parliament.



Honestly this is where I leave it to the lawyers/judges. Who have far greater understanding of this stuff than I will unless I want to go get a degree in that subject area.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49943243

I suspect that is Bernie's chance at the Democratic nomination gone.

 

[ncurd]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49943243

I suspect that is Bernie's chance at the Democratic nomination gone.

He should bow out gracefully and endorse Warren.

 

[Which Tyler]

Wow, I'm really surprised by this, really couldn't have seen this coming 3 years ago.[/deadpan]
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ironment-rules-trump-trade-deal-a9143221.html

Brexit: Boris Johnson moves to scrap environment safeguards to get deal with Trump
Trade secretary says scrapping protections 'vital for giving us the freedom and flexibility' to sign deals

Boris Johnson is scrapping a commitment by Theresa May to stick to EU rules on the environment, safety standards and workers' rights – to raise his chances of getting a trade agreement with Donald Trump.

Article Continues

 

[ncurd]

Workers rights next....

 

[Which Tyler]

Workers rights next....

Break the unions? Break the NHS? Or break the tax system?
Oh no, sorry, they're already on the latter.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49897951