A Political Thread

[General Melchett]

If Johnson were to break protocol, I imagine the Queen would 'demand' his presence. Then discharge him and invite Corbyn to form a government. She mightt even do in absentia if he still refuses to turn up.

Far less likely to cause a constitutional crisis.

It's an interesting one. I think the Queen would prefer not to get involved or have to take such steps but I'm sure there are a few men in dark suits waiting to escort BoJo out of No.10 if it came to it.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

The Queen's grandfather wouldn't even save the Romanovs (and they were family) from the Bolsheviks because he feared that bringing them over would start a revolutionary war in Britain and lead to the eventual loss of his Crown. Granted this was over 100 years ago, but the lesson is that the number 1 priority of the Royal family is to maintain its position. Brexit or no Brexit, the Queen won't get involved or I would be very, very surprised if she did in political sense.

 

[General Melchett]

I don't think Corbyn will be able to get a majority either. Him leading will be too much for some Tory rebels to stomach. The sensible choices for Labour would be Starmer or Harman but that would obviously undermine Corbyn as party leader. Would Corbyn then put national interest before his own position as party leader? Doubtful given he wants out of the EU anyway and can claim he tried and then blame BoJo.

 

[General Melchett]

BBC Parliament could be worth watching this week. Expect some fireworks and Speaker Bercow to throw a cat or two amongst the pigeons.

 

[ncurd]

If Johnson refused to move following a vote of no confidence and Corbyn claim he can control a majority standard protocol would be he's given that chance. The Queen would be on far shakier ground to not invite Corbyn to form a government than if she let Johnson stay put. Her job is is simply to facilitate government she personally won't have a choice what she does. Same with porogueing last week her advisers would of told her there was nothing constitutionally wrong with it (because there wasn't even if we know the reasons giving were horeshit) and she had to let it go. A prime minister and goverment refusing to stand down well they'd be on wrong side of it at that stage.



In more bizarro land there's also the fact the EU might grant an extension without our say so as they don't recognise Johnsons government in such circumstances and are awaiting the UK to form a goverment.

 

[Which Tyler]

There is just no way I can see a Unity government under Corbyn would last.

TBF, it doesn't NEED to.
If he can form a GNU in the first place then IDEALLY he'd pass a law marking a No Deal Brexit as illegal (of course, any future government would rescind that law, but they'd have to go through due process).
IDEALLY, he'd set in process a second referendum, followed by a general election.
He'd PROBABLY request an extension to article 50 - which would take about 30 minutes, we can get on with other things whilst waiting for a reply.
The only thing he'd NEED to be in power long enough to do, is to call a general election, with himself as PM and his cabinet in position to follow process whilst parliament is closed; but most importantly, with Corbyn setting the date of that GE.

I don't think Corbyn will be able to get a majority either. Him leading will be too much for some Tory rebels to stomach. The sensible choices for Labour would be Starmer or Harman but that would obviously undermine Corbyn as party leader. Would Corbyn then put national interest before his own position as party leader? Doubtful given he wants out of the EU anyway and can claim he tried and then blame BoJo.

That's why Ken Clarke is the best choice (Harmann second) as they wouldn't "undermine" Corbyn's position, and are much more palatable to pretty much every MP who isn't in labour (and several Labour MPs as well).

Corbyn would probably get enough support to request an extension, and call a GE; Clarke would probably get enough to do the rest.

 

[General Melchett]

That's why Ken Clarke is the best choice (Harmann second) as they wouldn't "undermine" Corbyn's position, and are much more palatable to pretty much every MP who isn't in labour (and several Labour MPs as well).

The proposed leader of the Unity Government pretty much needs 100% support from Labour MPs to get a majority don't they? I agree Clarke or Harman (or both with one as deputy) would be ideal but Corbyn is too pig headed to accept anyone else apart from himself. The question is would he put national interest before him saving face. Doubtful. You could almost say that BoJo and co are relying on Corbyn's delusion and pig headedness.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

TBF, it doesn't NEED to.
If he can form a GNU in the first place then IDEALLY he'd pass a law marking a No Deal Brexit as illegal (of course, any future government would rescind that law, but they'd have to go through due process).
IDEALLY, he'd set in process a second referendum, followed by a general election.
He'd PROBABLY request an extension to article 50 - which would take about 30 minutes, we can get on with other things whilst waiting for a reply.
The only thing he'd NEED to be in power long enough to do, is to call a general election, with himself as PM and his cabinet in position to follow process whilst parliament is closed; but most importantly, with Corbyn setting the date of that GE.

That's why Ken Clarke is the best choice (Harmann second) as they wouldn't "undermine" Corbyn's position, and are much more palatable to pretty much every MP who isn't in labour (and several Labour MPs as well).

Corbyn would probably get enough support to request an extension, and call a GE; Clarke would probably get enough to do the rest.

That's the thing with Corbyn, he doesn't actually mind Brexit happening. He just wants the Tories to own it, rather than him. The ironic thing is he is far from being any kind of Unifying figure, as you said Clarke would be better. Even if he is used to just get a General election or second referendum going before standing down.

I think the vast majority of the MPs have not thought about putting their own views aside to do what is best for the country. That is what has been so galling for the last 3 years since the vote.

 

[McTallshort]

If Johnson were to break protocol, I imagine the Queen would 'demand' his presence. Then discharge him and invite Corbyn to form a government. She mightt even do in absentia if he still refuses to turn up.

Far less likely to cause a constitutional crisis.

Will not happen. There is no way the Queen would intervene at that level

 

[Reiser99]

Johnson is playing hardball and it's simply because the Conservatives have backed themselves into an alley. Either they deliver Brexit or they risk losing massively at the next election whenever it is and the party never regaining power. However they have to choose which is worse politically, no deal or a bad deal. I think any deal of any kind is the worst result for them politically as hardcore leavers will hate it, remainers will hate it and they will have very little support in the middle for messing around for 3 years. Even if they can claim to have delivered Brexit, very few people will like it. At least with a no deal, they will satisfy those voting for the Brexit party. Johnson knows this and they are committed to no deal, despite everything else and have just spent all summer maneuvering into a position where they can blame the fall out of no deal on others, while still going ahead with it.

 

[ncurd]

Will not happen. There is no way the Queen would intervene at that level

As noted above is the Queen intervening? Sure thats how Tories will spin it but it's Johnson who wouldn't be following protocol all she would be doing is facilitating proper protocol in being adhered to. I'd argue she was intervening more by not doing anything than doing something.

But as noted I imagine they'll be some civil service heavies dragging Johnson to the Queen to resign if a GNU cam be formed after a vote of no confidence. I don't actually imagine they'll actually allow us to go into that level of constitutional crisis.

 

[McTallshort]

As noted above is the Queen intervening? Sure thats how Tories will spin it but it's Johnson who wouldn't be following protocol all she would be doing is facilitating proper protocol in being adhered to. I'd argue she was intervening more by not doing anything than doing something.

But as noted I imagine they'll be some civil service heavies dragging Johnson to the Queen to resign if a GNU cam be formed after a vote of no confidence. I don't actually imagine they'll actually allow us to go into that level of constitutional crisis.

Well they allowed Suez to happen so dont be so sure.

Again I very much doubt the Queen or any body associated with her would force Johnson to quit when its absolutely his right not to.

 

[ncurd]

Again I very much doubt the Queen or any body associated with her would force Johnson to quit when its absolutely his right not to.

Is it his right not to? Has a PM ever refused to resign if a different government can be formed? What happened when they did?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46890481

Basically if he refuses resign she'd have to dismiss him for not behaving constitutionally. But reality is in such a situation very few think Johnson would refuse to do so.

 

[McTallshort]

Is it his right not to? Has a PM ever refused to resign if a different government can be formed? What happened when they did?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46890481

Basically if he refuses resign she'd have to dismiss him for not behaving constitutionally. But reality is in such a situation very few think Johnson would refuse to do so.

Well very few thought he would do this and he doesn't have to resign.

 

[ncurd]

Well very few thought he would do this and he doesn't have to resign.

Do what? Prorogue parliament? Its been obvious he'd consider that ploy for months, its also well within normal constitutional convention even if the reason is to force the commons to being unable to stop no-deal. It was that or call a GE, which I'm still expecting.

Which is why the Queen would be forced to dismiss him, lets be clear here we are talking about another person clearly demonstrating they have the confidence of the commons before the 14 day marker. The Queen to stay a constitutional monarch has to act within what is constitutionally the norm. If a PM refuses to act within the conventions of the constitution it'll force her hand otherwise we cease to be a democracy and she'll have plaid a part in doing that.

 

[ncurd]

Kunnesberg is reporting GE still most likely outcome by end of week.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1168483296399024128?s=20

Which is hardly a surprise all of Johnson's grandstanding is about positioning himself as the guy who tried to deliver Brexit by 31st but was stopped by evil remainers. Secure The Brexit Party vote for the Toriesand attempt to have a working majority post election whilst remain stays divided.



The stuff about refusing to resign and Gove refusing to abide by legislation is all noise they don't actually intend to be in that position but they want to show how dedicated to Brexit they are.

 

[ncurd]

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1168486451111178240?s=20

Even trying to oust Larry now....

 

[General Melchett]

Last minute cabinet meeting scheduled for this afternoon. Sky News also think a GE is coming as up to 24 Tory rebels refusing to support BoJo. Will we see a Tory / Brexit party coalition of doom with the remainer/no deal vote split across the rest? I'm sure Cummings has done his polling and knows this is the best hope of increasing their majority. Is it feasible to have a GE pre 31 October?

Amazing that BoJo threatening to sack any Tory MP who goes against him when he himself defied the then PM Theresa May twice when she tried to get her deal through.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

In a morbid curiosity kind of way I'm interested to see how Brexit party does in an GE.

Obviously I don't any of those **** stains in parliament but with the way our system is set up will they be able to steal (m)any seats? UKIP were very successful a few years back but got sweet FA.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1168486451111178240?s=20

Even trying to oust Larry now....

That's an absolute disgrace. I will be writing to my MP in protest. Still, having said that I do like dogs as well.