A Political Thread

[ncurd]

In a morbid curiosity kind of way I'm interested to see how Brexit party does in an GE.

Obviously I don't any of those **** stains in parliament but with the way our system is set up will they be able to steal (m)any seats? UKIP were very successful a few years back but got sweet FA.

If polling is anything to by that actually may pick up seats as Labour/Tory support has flatlined and people are not buying the two party politics line at the moment. Ultimately their success will be about targeting Tory moderates in leave areas but suspect they'll get broad support accross the country with little if any seats. Most of the time I suspect it will end up with a Tory losing to a LD/Lab in a reverse to the 2015 election where LD's lost seats to Tories as punishment for getting in bed with them.

 

[ncurd]

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1168496200519245827?s=20

 

[Reiser99]

Seriously, how much more ridiculous can the situation get.

 

[General Melchett]

I do like the idea of BoJo and Corbyn both getting into power and both being brought down, one after the other, within a matter of months. Maybe a counter protest vote to get Corbyn into No.10 is the way to sort this, assuming he promises a second vote in his manifesto. I just can't see him lasting in No.10 either because it's another hung parliament or because his own ministers/party will turn on him. Then we can have yet another election with new more moderate Tory and Labour leaders. Wishful thinking I know.

 

[Which Tyler]

Last minute cabinet meeting scheduled for this afternoon. Sky News also think a GE is coming as up to 24 Tory rebels refusing to support BoJo. Will we see a Tory / Brexit party coalition of doom with the remainer/no deal vote split across the rest? I'm sure Cummings has done his polling and knows this is the best hope of increasing their majority. Is it feasible to have a GE pre 31 October?

Amazing that BoJo threatening to sack any Tory MP who goes against him when he himself defied the then PM Theresa May twice when she tried to get her deal through.

Yes, a GE is a certainty at this stage, it's just a matter of whether it's before or after Halloween.
My worry is that Cummings is doing his very best to goad parliament into a successful VONC - and if he's got his war-gaming right, then it's what he's after; and I'm wary of doing anything that Cummings wants me to, even if I can't see how he's worked it.
You could be right that he's simply expecting a 2 way split of the leave vote and a 4 way split for remain - and presumably he's gamed that to show that leads to a FPTP majority for the evil empire.

Yes it's absolutely feasible to have a GE before halloween - but it needs to be called before they break for conference season / prorogation; and would presumably necessitate the canceling of party conferences.

Seriously, how much more ridiculous can the situation get.

You might regret asking that

 

[General Melchett]

Yes, a GE is a certainty at this stage, it's just a matter of whether it's before or after Halloween.
My worry is that Cummings is doing his very best to goad parliament into a successful VONC - and if he's got his war-gaming right, then it's what he's after; and I'm wary of doing anything that Cummings wants me to, even if I can't see how he's worked it.
You could be right that he's simply expecting a 2 way split of the leave vote and a 4 way split for remain - and presumably he's gamed that to show that leads to a FPTP majority for the evil empire.

Yes it's absolutely feasible to have a GE before halloween - but it needs to be called before they break for conference season / prorogation; and would presumably necessitate the canceling of party conferences.

You might regret asking that

If he calls a snap election it'll need 2/3 of MPs support. He won't get that unless he commits to having it before 31 October. MPs surely won't tolerate us leaving by default before an election as they'd effectively be voting for No deal.

If he and Cummings are plotting a contrived VONC then they control when the GE will be and won't need 2/3 MPs support if I'm not mistaken? Would he risk having it after 31 October and drag us out by default most likely without a deal? He'll pick up Brexit party votes as they have nothing to vote for if we're out but would everyone else make him pay.

 

[ncurd]

Apparently he can promise one date then have it at a different one.

That is playing with fire with the electorate. Honestly though I don't think Johnson wants no deal but he needs to contrive not having it.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Larry at the front of number 10 to greet and if necessary scratch the cabinet members as they go in for their cabinet meeting.

 

[Which Tyler]

I think I MIGHT have worked out the play.
He'll deselect the 21 / 24 rebel conservative MPs (whether or not he has that authority) and NOT replace them. Put up no candidate (we couldn't find and vet anyone at such short notice), or at best a joke, and cede those seats to Farage with an understanding that the BnP concentrate their campaigning in those 21 / 24 seats and form a coalition if necessary.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

6pm statement by Bojo.

 

[Which Tyler]

If he offers a GE straight away - to avoid a law requiring a delay or no deal to be taken off the table - should Corbyn take it? (it'd need 2/3 of parliament to approve it).
Corbyn has spent the last 3 years wanting a GE, and demanding a GE - so he'd be a hypocrit to reject
But...
That would imply that Cummings thinks the proposed law could succeed; and that he doesn't want it - it's rarely a good idea to do what your enemay wants you to do.
Would Corbyn be beter placed to get that proposed law through and enacted, and THEN call the VOTC, forcing a GE?

 

[ncurd]

If he offers a GE straight away - to avoid a law requiring a delay or no deal to be taken off the table - should Corbyn take it? (it'd need 2/3 of parliament to approve it).
Corbyn has spent the last 3 years wanting a GE, and demanding a GE - so he'd be a hypocrit to reject
But...
That would imply that Cummings thinks the proposed law could succeed; and that he doesn't want it - it's rarely a good idea to do what your enemay wants you to do.
Would Corbyn be beter placed to get that proposed law through and enacted, and THEN call the VOTC, forcing a GE?

He shouldn't take it but he will.

I suspect, we are about to watch May 2.0 call a GE, say its about Brexit, Labour refuse to talk about Brexit or really spell it out, common comes back no definitve majority for anything...

 

[Which Tyler]

He shouldn't take it but he will.

I suspect, we are about to watch May 2.0 call a GE, say its about Brexit, Labour refuse to talk about Brexit or really spell it out, common comes back no definitve majority for anything...

Yes but...
Parliament will likely be in an even worse position with no one party coming close to a majority. 3-way coalition with Tory+BnP+DUP and Labour+LibDem +SNP being pretty equal - and only that if labour get off that fence

 

[ncurd]

Peston: https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1168568080630472704?s=20

BREAKING:
@BorisJohnson
will say If MPs vote tomorrow for another delay, then Wednesday there will be vote on general election. MPs gone, no 14 days, no legislation on extension. Election on 14 October. Government source: "who does country want to sort it out on 18 Oct at EU?"

 

[ncurd]

Better get my postal vote sorted....I'm on holiday...although the 14th is a Monday not Thursday...

 

[Amiga500]

Truer gifs were never made...

The real reason for Brexit.

And the stupid masses have fell for the manipulation of the landed gentry.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Oh get on with it.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Here we go.

edit: well that was pretty bloody pointless.

 

[Which Tyler]

So if tomorrow's bill passed he won't abide by it, but doesn't say how he'll side-step it.

Good to hear the protests almost drowning him out

 

[ncurd]

Said sod all, no circumstances in which he'll ask for an extension. But still think that's posturing.