A Political Thread pt. 2

[Reiser99]

I think the number of lost seats will decide whether Tory MPs blame Sunak or not. If it seems like damage limited then he'll be fine. If it's towards 1000 then he'll struggle not to take some or most of the blame.

 

[Saintjay]

The hope the torys will cling on is in the 2019 local elections they lost around 1300 seats. We all know who turned up next and destroyed Labour at the ballot box. If they get smashed by close of play today they will try to pull rabbits out of a hat. Interesting take on the radio Sunak has to move to the centre or he's Sunakered.

 

[Which Tyler]

Tewkesbury local elections live updates: Results and reaction

The Tories are no longer in control of the district council

www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk

Tewkesbury East has gone from 2 conservatives to 2 Greens, with an increased turnout from 2019 (28.9% => 33.1%)
Increased turnout means an extra 250 ballots cast, and the tories still managed to lose over 100 votes.

In GE terms, we're one of the safest tory seats in the country (obviously, far more than just this ward, but the story seems to be being repeated all over the borough)

ETA: As far as I can see, of the seats so far declared, we've gone

Con: 10 => 1
L-D: 5 => 10
Ind: 4 => 5
Grn: 1 => 4

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Something interesting to see, which may be done in analysis after, was there mass voting for whichever left wing party already had the best chance of winning? There was a lot of stuff going round about tactical voting and coordinating efforts or if the party that displaced the Conservatives was not already their prime challenger in that council.

Also staggering how the Tories go on about losing their reputation for economic competence... If they have that reputation, it is not deserved. Statistically they fare far worse than Labour governments when it comes to the economy, and the currently prolonged stagnation is just further evidence of that. Even prior to Covid and the Ukraine war AND counting in the banking crisis against Labour, Labour still came out on top statistically on the economy.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Tamworth has gone from Conservative to Hung,
East Staffs has gone from Conservative to Labour

Come oonnnn Lichfield

 

[Which Tyler]

And my MP is now being investigated

MP Laurence Robertson investigated by Commons watchdog

Betting lobbying group pays him £2,000 a month but he says he has done nothing wrong

www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Labour win Swindon. Well, I say win, burdened with may be more apt.

 

[Which Tyler]

Labour win Swindon. Well, I say win, burdened with may be more apt.

Puts the "Wilt" into Wiltshire


ETA: In Tewkesbury Borough, the tories have lost overall control of the council, whatever happens; they've also lost their leader on the council
After 15 of 20 wards declared as of 2.00pm
Con: 19 => 8
L-D: 6 => 13
Ind: 4 => 5
Grn: 1 => 4

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Our ward and the 2 nearest to us were all easily won by Independents. Overall the status quo was retained of no party majority.

The candidate who won our ward was a mere 34,000 votes shy of the Tory MP at the last GE.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Both super interesting things to keep in mind. Bloodbath for the Tories, but Labour still aren't in the clear yet. They still need to get over the Starmer v Sunak issues, and get an actual narrative going about what they are for, not just against.

Lib Dems will almost certainly go into coalition with Lab over the Tories, but there is a chance that they refuse. Then it becomes the Greens or the SNP. Any hint of the latter and Labour will struggle in Scotland, and any form of the former has been disastrous for Gov in Scotland.

They will likely still come out on top, but it is a road lined by minefields still

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Late drop goal by Starmer to seal it

 

[TRF_Olyy]

BBC analyst saying similar:
Conservative - 26%
Labour - 35%
Liberal Democrats - 20%
Others - 19%

As much as all the random surveys saying "TORIES TO WIN ONE SEAT IN GENERAL ELECTION" are funny, I'm still not expecting an outright majority for Labour

 

[Which Tyler]

 

[ncurd]

Tewkesbury local elections live updates: Results and reaction

The Tories are no longer in control of the district council

www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk

Tewkesbury East has gone from 2 conservatives to 2 Greens, with an increased turnout from 2019 (28.9% => 33.1%)
Increased turnout means an extra 250 ballots cast, and the tories still managed to lose over 100 votes.

In GE terms, we're one of the safest tory seats in the country (obviously, far more than just this ward, but the story seems to be being repeated all over the borough)

ETA: As far as I can see, of the seats so far declared, we've gone

Con: 10 => 1
L-D: 5 => 10
Ind: 4 => 5
Grn: 1 => 4

Cheers

Although you need to careful turnout % as opposed more ballots. The new part of the Whestpices estate (now 5 years old) only just added this year before that was part of the Ashchurch constituency.

The Borough as a whole is an amazing story the town areas are always winnable but the rural parts never have been

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Turnout was 40% where I live which was a big surprise for a local election.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Lichfield still not announced but my ward's three Tory councillors have retained their seats.
Frustrating as with some tactics 1/2/maybe even all 3 could've been ousted
The three Tories all got 600 odd each, the three labour got 500 odd each and the solo lib dem candidate got 300 odd

 

[Saintjay]

Cambridge remains Labour. East Cambs stayed conservative with an 18yo Lucius Vellacott gaining a seat. Very Harry Enfield and Tory Boy.

 

[Reiser99]

So Conservatives previously said they could lose over 1000 seats if things went bad. You know, so they could try to put a positive spin on losing.

"Well it could have been worse." etc....

Currently on -940. Only 60 away now.

Edit: Another 30 councils roughly still to call, 200 out of 230, so plenty of time to hit 4 figures.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Local election 2023: Prof Sir John Curtice on what the results mean for the parties

Is Labour on course, as polls suggest, for a potential general election victory next year?

www.bbc.co.uk