A Political Thread pt. 2

[The Seeker]

 

[The Seeker]

Get ready for a guilty by reason of insanity plea.

 

[ncurd]

Absolutely bonkers it takes so long.

It's normal for most trials of any kind. Now the person has been found guilty judge has to read the law, find suitable reasoning for the sentence and give a summary of detail. Whilst also doing the same for all other trials they've presided over.

It's just one of those things that take time especially when you want it to be appeal proof.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Some computer program will spit out guidelines based on data and people will argue over that.

 

[The Seeker]

 

[McTallshort]

I think people need to manage their expectations if they think Trumps going to jail. The fact is people like him don't go to prison in the US for white collar crime. There will always be some kind of deal or appeal that will keep him out.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Reading that it would be next to impossible to put him in a federal prison and allow Secret service to protect him. Would be a circus and no prison Governor would entertain it or the cost of it.

Likely be a big fine, but I don't know if some kind of house arrest would be possible? Restrict his ability to campaign.

The fact that he has a criminal conviction should hopefully sway enough swing state voters.

 

[McTallshort]

 

[TRF_Olyy]

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Seriously they should just tell these ***** to **** off
14yrs of Tories decimating the country and they're fine with it - about to be embarrassed at an election? Better jump ship so I can try and avoid the stink of it

I really don't care that these people aren't running in the general election, they shouldn't be welcomed into Labour with open arms

 

[ncurd]

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Seriously they should just tell these ***** to **** off
14yrs of Tories decimating the country and they're fine with it - about to be embarrassed at an election? Better jump ship so I can try and avoid the stink of it

I really don't care that these people aren't running in the general election, they shouldn't be welcomed into Labour with open arms

I agree in terms of PLP but this dude isn't even an MP anymore and has just endorsed Labour. I think even if they didn't want him they couldn't stop him speaking.

He's also not a labour party member and only just applied.

On reflection whilst it was hilarious Natalie Elphicke shouldn't of been welcomed.

 

[Which Tyler]

I think people need to manage their expectations if they think Trumps going to jail. The fact is people like him don't go to prison in the US for white collar crime. There will always be some kind of deal or appeal that will keep him out.

Does anyone have that expectation?
It would be "house arrest" a Mar A Largo at best, whilst the case is gummed up with appeal after appeal after appeal, until either he's elected president, and pardons himself, or it reaches the Supreme Court where his cronies will ignore the constitution to A] not recuse themselves, and B] let him off, probably without even bothering with a fig-leaf of respectability (same reason he's now allowed to stand for president despite being expressly forbidden by the constitution, which does NOT say "a convicted felon cannot stand for public office... except for president, that one's fine")

 

[Reiser99]

I mentioned it before on the BBC. I think the image Labour are trying to create is that former Tory supporters are welcome in Labour and should vote for Labour. Personally, I agree that these former Tories should accept responsibility for the mess they have caused, but I can see the political side of accepting them into Labour. Issue is will these be one off voters or will they stay permanently? My feeling is they would only be temporary.

 

[Reiser99]

Does anyone have that expectation?
It would be "house arrest" a Mar A Largo at best, whilst the case is gummed up with appeal after appeal after appeal, until either he's elected president, and pardons himself, or it reaches the Supreme Court where his cronies will change the constitution to let him off (which is how he gets to stand for president despite now being a convicted felon - the constitution never said "a convicted felon cannot stand for public office... except for president, that one's fine")

Say he did get house arrest, which is the best that can be hoped for. Question I'm wondering is, does the sentence come into effect while he's appealing or would he still be free while he appeals?

 

[Which Tyler]

Say he did get house arrest, which is the best that can be hoped for. Question I'm wondering is, does the sentence come into effect while he's appealing or would he still be free while he appeals?

I'm told (unknown reliability of source) that it's up to the judge of the appeal case.
What factors they take into account, I simply don't know (but suspect things like flight risk, physical danger to others etc - of which he's surely very low risk)

 

[The Seeker]

I think people need to manage their expectations if they think Trumps going to jail. The fact is people like him don't go to prison in the US for white collar crime. There will always be some kind of deal or appeal that will keep him out.

Yes, white collar criminals get locked up here in the United States. Enron Execs: Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling, Bernie Madoff, Crypto King Sam Bankman-Fried, Wolf of Wall Street Jordan Belfor, Martha Stewart, Elizabeth Holmes, Pharma Bro Martin Shkreli and Jerome Jacobson in the McDonald's Monopoly game scandal (just to name a few) did time or are currently locked up. They usually serve sentences at minimum level facilities, but they do time. I bet you didn't think the jury would find Trump guilty. Well I did and I think he'll do time. Don't forget he was found guilty on 34 counts. Thirty freakin' four! And the sentencing date is perfect, it's shortly before the Republican Convention. So he won't be able to attend the convention, just you wait and see. He'll FINALLY get his. What goes around...comes around. Sure, he's gotten away with sh*t all his life but it's finally catching up to him. I can't stand the arrogant Orange Turd, but I don't wish him anything more than what he deserves and he definitely deserves to do time. Behind bars or house arrest, I don't care as long as he's not able to run around free and has to answer to the authorities. He has a right to file an appeal, but it can be denied and I think it will. Kudos to the District Attorney's office in Manhattan.

 

[Which Tyler]

In terms of the upcoming election Stateside, a huge amount will (presumably) depend on the judge of the first appeal case.

If Trump is under house arrest during campaign season, and unable to hold his cult rallies, it will make a huge difference to his chances there.

If the appeal judge thinks "innocent until proven-to-me that you're guilty" and "low risk of flight, low risk of (physically) harming others" and he's free to rally whilst the appeals are ongoing, then this conviction is probably going to add energy to his base (and implicit threat to his opponents).

I know this really ought to be a side-issue from his conviction for criminal activity, but it's impossible to parse them.

 

[ncurd]

I mentioned it before on the BBC. I think the image Labour are trying to create is that former Tory supporters are welcome in Labour and should vote for Labour. Personally, I agree that these former Tories should accept responsibility for the mess they have caused, but I can see the political side of accepting them into Labour. Issue is will these be one off voters or will they stay permanently? My feeling is they would only be temporary.

I think that's fine I definitely saw under the Corbyn years an attitude of **** and go vote Tory then if you didn't agree with everything under their banner. I think they are going overboard now.

 

[Reiser99]

In terms of the upcoming election Stateside, a huge amount will (presumably) depend on the judge of the first appeal case.

If Trump is under house arrest during campaign season, and unable to hold his cult rallies, it will make a huge difference to his chances there.

If the appeal judge thinks "innocent until proven-to-me that you're guilty" and "low risk of flight, low risk of (physically) harming others" and he's free to rally whilst the appeals are ongoing, then this conviction is probably going to add energy to his base (and implicit threat to his opponents).

I know this really ought to be a side-issue from his conviction for criminal activity, but it's impossible to parse them.

Surely if the crime he's convicted of was trying to defraud during an election, then if he's been convicted he shouldn't be free during the appeal to campaign because that then contradicts almost what he was convicted of.

Having said that, I'm not sure how the appeal judge is selected, but tbh it will probably depend more on if the judge was a republican appointee or not. I'm not sure how impartial democrat appointed judges are, but republican ones are definitely less likely to be impartial, especially if they were a recent appointment.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

In terms of the upcoming election Stateside, a huge amount will (presumably) depend on the judge of the first appeal case.

If Trump is under house arrest during campaign season, and unable to hold his cult rallies, it will make a huge difference to his chances there.

If the appeal judge thinks "innocent until proven-to-me that you're guilty" and "low risk of flight, low risk of (physically) harming others" and he's free to rally whilst the appeals are ongoing, then this conviction is probably going to add energy to his base (and implicit threat to his opponents).

I know this really ought to be a side-issue from his conviction for criminal activity, but it's impossible to parse them.

The interesting thing is a not insignificant number of Trump voters had said they would not vote for him if he got any sort of criminal conviction. He has now got 1 and 2 defamation losses. Whilst his rabid base would follow him even if he shot someone dead on camera, his base won't determine the election. I'm feeling more confident that most people see just how rabid and dangerous the Republicans have become and how there isn't a shred of integrity or decency left in that party. They are a full on cult now and the way they defend Trump is literally like the stuff you would hear out of a dictatorship, telling bare-faced lies that everyone can see are nonsense. One that sticks in my mind is a Fox host saying Trump is calm and presidential whilst Biden is a raging lunatic, usual projection but everyone beyond the cultists can see what nonsense it is.

Whether Trump goes to jail or not on this case doesn't really matter, the documents case is the big one and Jack Smith and the Democrats need to get judge Cannon removed, she has proven herself to be utterly corrupt and is so far from impartial it's making a mockery of the whole judicial system. Something also needs to be done about the corrupt justices on the supreme court but all that is post-election. Democrats need to stop taking the high ground now, Republicans are determined to corrupt all levels of the USA and that corruption must not be allowed to stay. It starts with taking Trump out of the picture.

 

[ncurd]

Isn't the real case against him the RICO one in Georgia for conspiracy to defraud an election.