A Political Thread pt. 2

[Bada-Bing!]

Tbh if Trump wins,

He'd be the first sitting President to govern the country from Federal prison .

Seriously he won in 2016 based on enough swing voters taking a punt on him but also let's face a backlash having Obama as the first black POTUS before him. And having that brand that he'd built up in his years on the Apprentice.

2020 showed that more than of those swing voters deserted him, especially the middle class white suburban housewife vote and also still preferred an even older decrepit older white man to be POTUS.

I think despite Biden looking at death's door and he could well die in his next term in office, there should be enough swing state voters who have are still repulsed by Trump. Well that is my hope anyway.

Edit: you would also think that his whole "it's a Hoax" and "I am the victim, so you (his support) are also the victims" is wearing thin on the swing state voters.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

2020 showed that more than of those swing voters deserted him, especially the middle class white suburban housewife vote and also still preferred an even older decrepit older white man to be POTUS.

Think the issue Biden might have is the anti-Trump voters might not turn out for him this time, and last time was pretty close
Trump will probably have the same fanbase now as he did before, but Biden will have lost a lot - if he runs with Harris again, who is very unpopular, it could be a very tight run race

I still think Biden will likely win, as the race to be the Republican candidate will probably have a lot of mudslinging and turn Trump fans against DeSantis and DeSantis fans against Trump so there'll be a portion that just don't bother, but I don't think it's going to be an easy Dem win

 

[Welsh Exile]

A dead Biden would still be a much better president than Trump.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

A dead Biden would still be a much better president than Trump.

Don't think anyone here would argue with that - it's large portions of America that would need convincing, and considering everything's that going on there atm...

I dunno, I might be being pessimistic about turnout, but I see a lot of people saying how great it is that the Biden administration is "boring" - and while that is good and kind of what you want from politicians, it's not going to inspire people out to vote in the way that coming from Trump's chaos got people out voting for anyone-but-trump, and the right are getting them more and more riled up about literally everything in the world they're going to be out in force (unless enough get convinced about voter fraud that they think it doesn't matter)

I dunno, just hard to predict anything in American politics these days with how increasingly fractured and angry everything is

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Think the issue Biden might have is the anti-Trump voters might not turn out for him this time, and last time was pretty close
Trump will probably have the same fanbase now as he did before, but Biden will have lost a lot - if he runs with Harris again, who is very unpopular, it could be a very tight run race

I still think Biden will likely win, as the race to be the Republican candidate will probably have a lot of mudslinging and turn Trump fans against DeSantis and DeSantis fans against Trump so there'll be a portion that just don't bother, but I don't think it's going to be an easy Dem win

Just doing a case study on the 1936 POTUS election when a poll of 2 million out of the then 46 million US electorate was taken by Literay Digest magazine. It predicted Alf Langdon would win by 57% and easily win the election over a certain FDR. Needless to say it turned out to be hopelessly wrong and FDR won by an absolute landslide.

Anyway, not saying the same thing will happen again, but it illustrates the point how polls even back then based on such a large sample can be wrong. Even pre 2020 polls were wrong. We have an inherent bias to predict based on past events and what we see right now.

If 2020 did show anything it wasn't close and we may well be underestimating again the anti-trump vote which aren't as vocal as his base.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

If 2020 did show anything it wasn't close and we may well be underestimating again the anti-trump vote which aren't as vocal as his base.

True, but that's sort of my point - Trump got people riled up enough to vote,
Now people are back to apathy and I don't know if a few televised debates will be enough to get people out again

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Now people are back to apathy and I don't know if a few televised debates will be enough to get people out again

Sure, but that doesn't mean the anti trump vote won't turn up again next year. They are just getting on with their lives. But guarantee when they turn up to that election booth and see Trump's name they will not vote for him and Biden instead.

The man is Toxic and divisive. If the mid terms showed anything it won't go all his way as he thinks. And all these lawsuits and federal charges should erode support amongst the swing states even more than 2020.

He's shown the last 7 years what he truly is: an emperor without clothes.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

With trump everything was so bad it forced politics into the lives of people who usually don't care. Biden has been so normal idk how many people have paid attention. I do wonder if trump starts campaigning again if it rally the troops.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

The charges mount, but Trump’s not worried. He’s just the guy to make jail great again | Marina Hyde

There’s no telling how many indictments he will collect before the election. And the sad fact is that his party doesn’t seem to care, says Guardian columnist Marina Hyde

www.theguardian.com

He'll make prison great again!

 

[Reiser99]

Boris Johnson rewards key allies in resignation honours list

Priti Patel is made a dame and Jacob Rees-Mogg is knighted, as seven former colleagues are nominated for peerages.

www.bbc.co.uk

The whole honours system is a joke anyway, but this really takes the ****.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Politicians shouldn't be able to release things on Friday afternoons.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Can Charlie refuse to honour them?

I know he won't/wouldn't but would actually endear him to a lot of people

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Jesus wept I didn't realise Fabric-c*nt was getting one
Absolutely the most useless MP in the country, which says a lot. Doubt he could point Lichfield out on a map

 

[Bada-Bing!]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-65852074?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=64836a4dc408bd3c18cbbd30%26What%20are%20the%20charges%20against%20Trump%20aide%20Walt%20Nauta%3F%262023-06-09T18%3A13%3A52.618Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:b83c54f6-6e3b-4367-8a13-638a767834c6&pinned_post_asset_id=64836a4dc408bd3c18cbbd30&pinned_post_type=share

Here's a break down of the charges against Trump's aide:

• Conspiracy to obstruct justice
• Withholding a document or record
• Corruptly concealing a document or record
• Concealing a document in a federal investigation
• Scheme to conceal
• False statements and representations

Including nuclear programme documents. And

Trump showed secret 'plan of attack' documents to others - indictment
The indictment accuses Trump of showing "classified documents to others" on two occasions.
The first instance was at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey, "during an audio-recorded meeting with a writer, a publisher, and two members of his staff".
None of these people possessed security clearance, the indictment adds.
Trump showed and described a "plan of attack" that he said was "prepared for him by the Department of Defense and a senior military official".
Trump then told the individuals that the plan was "highly confidential", "secret" and also added "as president I could have declassified it".
"Now I can't, you know, but this is still a secret," the indictment states Trump as saying.



Classy way to store US nuclear files. .

Lock him up. HTF can any of his supporters or sane swing state voters could vote for him?

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

A perfect example of why the ministerial code is not fit for purpose. The whole thing relies on politicians acting in good faith and with integrity, there is none of that on the Tory side now and they have absolutely shredded the code on multiple occasions with minimal consequence. I hope whoever takes over from them will put into law something to strengthen the code and also ensure that said strengthening cannot simply be undone by another government doing away with it, like the Johnson and following governments have.

 

[The Seeker]

 

[The Seeker]

 

[Reiser99]

A perfect example of why the ministerial code is not fit for purpose. The whole thing relies on politicians acting in good faith and with integrity, there is none of that on the Tory side now and they have absolutely shredded the code on multiple occasions with minimal consequence. I hope whoever takes over from them will put into law something to strengthen the code and also ensure that said strengthening cannot simply be undone by another government doing away with it, like the Johnson and following governments have.

Also highlights how impotent the speaker of the house is. They should be able to bar ministers from speaking or something like that in the HoC until they correct the record.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I've been forced out over Partygate report, says Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson is to step down as an MP but insists that "I did not lie" over Covid lockdowns.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[RedruthRFC]

I've been forced out over Partygate report, says Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson is to step down as an MP but insists that "I did not lie" over Covid lockdowns.

www.bbc.co.uk

Not a bad day - him and Mad Nads falling on their swords on the same day.