A Political Thread pt. 2

[Amiga500]

Well. We'll see I guess (I hadn't heard they were moving any direction, north, south, east or west - so if he has word they are moving west then thats obviously big news).

In other news, Poland has released their Fulcrums to the US, will land them in Rammstein and let the USA do what they will.

So I expect a bunch of very eager Ukrainian pilots to be waiting to pick up their new horses. They will still need some acclimatisation time as they are different from what they are used to*.

I wonder what AAMs (or AGMs) those MiGs can use. Haven't found anything that says they converted them over to Western munitions.


*https://theaviationist.com/2013/03/18/polish-fulcrums/

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

If there wasn't enough motivation to invest in green energy then surely this situation with Russia has provided another major reason. EU completely dependent on Russia for gas and oil and it's really stopping them doing everything possible to limit Russia. It should have been obvious that allowing yourself to be dependent on others gives them power and with Russia it was always likely to be an issue.

EU planning to drop Russian gas consumption by two thirds this year and accelerate drive to renewables. If there is the political will to treat this as a priority similar to a war then this is entirely possible to pull off fairly swiftly in my opinion.

REPowerEU: Joint European action for more affordable, secure and sustainable energy

The European Commission has today proposed an outline of a plan to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels well before 2030, starting with gas, in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

ec.europa.eu

IF there is the political will.... doh!

Germany vetoes nuclear power extension, aims for LNG terminal in 2024

Germany on Tuesday poured cold water on extending the life-span of its nuclear plants to help cut its reliance on Russian gas, saying it needed instead to build up alternative energy sources at "Tesla speed".

www.reuters.com

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Well. We'll see I guess (I hadn't heard they were moving any direction, north, south, east or west - so if he has word they are moving west then thats obviously big news).

In other news, Poland has released their Fulcrums to the US, will land them in Rammstein and let the USA do what they will.

So I expect a bunch of very eager Ukrainian pilots to be waiting to pick up their new horses. They will still need some acclimatisation time as they are different from what they are used to*.

I wonder what AAMs (or AGMs) those MiGs can use. Haven't found anything that says they converted them over to Western munitions.


*https://theaviationist.com/2013/03/18/polish-fulcrums/

Yes Poland! Other East European countries have more so hopefully this gives them the courage. I don't think the US want this as they came out earlier this week saying it was up to Poland but might put them at risk (from Russia). But Poland has forced the US hand. If you truly stand with Ukraine you move heaven and earth to bolster their airforce by giving replacements to countries with Migs and you do it as fast as humanly possible.

Poland ready to place all its MIG-29 jets at the disposal of U.S.

Poland is ready to deploy all its MIG-29 jets to Ramstein Air Base in Germany and put them at the disposal of the United States, and urges other NATO members that own planes of that type to do the same, the Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

There are a reported 60,000 Ukranian volunteers in other countries returning to Ukraine to fight. I imagine jets and helicopters are incredibly hard to train people up on (within the likely timeframes of this conflict), but tanks? Maybe there is a thinking that extra tanks are not so beneficial when Russia has air superiority? I'm surprised Zelensky is not banging on about tanks too.

To be clear, I dont think tanks, jets and helicopters manned by Ukrainians wins this war. But it might create enough pressure to strengthen the Ukranian hand in negotiations.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

EU planning to drop Russian gas consumption by two thirds this year and accelerate drive to renewables. If there is the political will to treat this as a priority similar to a war then this is entirely possible to pull off fairly swiftly in my opinion.

REPowerEU: Joint European action for more affordable, secure and sustainable energy

The European Commission has today proposed an outline of a plan to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels well before 2030, starting with gas, in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

ec.europa.eu

IF there is the political will.... doh!

Germany vetoes nuclear power extension, aims for LNG terminal in 2024

Germany on Tuesday poured cold water on extending the life-span of its nuclear plants to help cut its reliance on Russian gas, saying it needed instead to build up alternative energy sources at "Tesla speed".

www.reuters.com

War breaking out and ze Germans acting Sus..... Half expecting zombies.

 

[Which Tyler]

 

[Amiga500]

There are a reported 60,000 Ukranian volunteers in other countries returning to Ukraine to fight. I imagine jets and helicopters are incredibly hard to train people up on (within the likely timeframes of this conflict), but tanks? Maybe there is a thinking that extra tanks are not so beneficial when Russia has air superiority? I'm surprised Zelensky is not banging on about tanks too.

I *think* tanks are largely unsuited to the war Ukraine are fighting - one largely of ambush with light logistical footprint - and the thaw over the next several weeks* that will leave heavy armour road bound - and vulnerable.

*aside from a dip in temps this week.


Tallshort may be able to advise more on the tactical usefulness vs. logistical burden of them right now.

 

[McTallshort]

Yes Poland! Other East European countries have more so hopefully this gives them the courage. I don't think the US want this as they came out earlier this week saying it was up to Poland but might put them at risk (from Russia). But Poland has forced the US hand. If you truly stand with Ukraine you move heaven and earth to bolster their airforce by giving replacements to countries with Migs and you do it as fast as humanly possible.

Poland ready to place all its MIG-29 jets at the disposal of U.S.

Poland is ready to deploy all its MIG-29 jets to Ramstein Air Base in Germany and put them at the disposal of the United States, and urges other NATO members that own planes of that type to do the same, the Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

There are a reported 60,000 Ukranian volunteers in other countries returning to Ukraine to fight. I imagine jets and helicopters are incredibly hard to train people up on (within the likely timeframes of this conflict), but tanks? Maybe there is a thinking that extra tanks are not so beneficial when Russia has air superiority? I'm surprised Zelensky is not banging on about tanks too.

To be clear, I dont think tanks, jets and helicopters manned by Ukrainians wins this war. But it might create enough pressure to strengthen the Ukranian hand in negotiations.

Takes about 12 to 15 weeks to train someone on the 3 roles within a tank plus you need a commander.

Although Soviet era tanks have an autoloader so might no take as long

 

[McTallshort]

I *think* tanks are largely unsuited to the war Ukraine are fighting - one largely of ambush with light logistical footprint - and the thaw over the next several weeks* that will leave heavy armour road bound - and vulnerable.

*aside from a dip in temps this week.


Tallshort may be able to advise more on the tactical usefulness vs. logistical burden of them right now.

Tanks are fine if you have a logical chain to support it otherwise they are more trouble than use. They use a lot of fuel, need lots of spare parts and require quite a few man hours to maintain especially the Soviet era T-72s and T-80s. They are also nice fat targets for attack helicopter's.

You can train someone on a Javelin in a few hours. Better to do that.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Tanks are fine if you have a logical chain to support it otherwise they are more trouble than use. They use a lot of fuel, need lots of spare parts and require quite a few man hours to maintain especially the Soviet era T-72s and T-80s. They are also nice fat targets for attack helicopter's.

You can train someone on a Javelin in a few hours. Better to do that.

My point is surely you can't claim territory from a foe with more men, tanks and air support by javelins alone. Its defensive only. So when Russia encircles large areas (current NE of Kyiv and surely the main tactic to come in Donbas and Odessa) and these areas have no border with a friendly state then we have a guaranteed humanitarian catastrophe with no prospect of Ukraime breaking the encirclement. Fair? 3 months training has an outside chance of being a viable timeframe.

As I suspected above, the US didn't ever want the MIGs. They were just doing a Boris and talking tough, like they genuinely supported Ukraine. Now they "can't see the rationale" for Ukraine to have the jets. Does that mean the US will disband it's own airforce as there isn't a "rationale" to have one? Zelensky is spot on in calling out NATO state heads as far far short of true allies and instead as self serving neutrals happy enough for Ukrainians to die slowly. Russia has given no indication it would take action against states providing jets to Ukraine (only they would be hostile to letting them use airstrips to launch attacks).

U.S. rejects Poland's offer to give it Russian-made fighter jets for Ukraine

The United States rejected a surprise offer by NATO ally Poland on Tuesday to transfer its Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets to a U.S. base in Germany as a way to replenish Ukraine's air force in its defense against invading Russian forces.

www.reuters.com

Poland could have offered Ukraine to uplift the jets and fly them to a destination, so they are far from blameless. And their government is a bit nuts, so they probably made the offer in this way to deflect blame onto the US. Lots of diplomatic dances by NATO allies while Ukraine suffocates. Not a good look.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Like with most things it's become a case of political parties scoring points or trying to save some face.

 

[McTallshort]

My point is surely you can't claim territory from a foe with more men, tanks and air support by javelins alone. Its defensive only. So when Russia encircles large areas (current NE of Kyiv and surely the main tactic to come in Donbas and Odessa) and these areas have no border with a friendly state then we have a guaranteed humanitarian catastrophe with no prospect of Ukraime breaking the encirclement. Fair? 3 months training has an outside chance of being a viable timeframe.

As I suspected above, the US didn't ever want the MIGs. They were just doing a Boris and talking tough, like they genuinely supported Ukraine. Now they "can't see the rationale" for Ukraine to have the jets. Does that mean the US will disband it's own airforce as there isn't a "rationale" to have one? Zelensky is spot on in calling out NATO state heads as far far short of true allies and instead as self serving neutrals happy enough for Ukrainians to die slowly. Russia has given no indication it would take action against states providing jets to Ukraine (only they would be hostile to letting them use airstrips to launch attacks).

U.S. rejects Poland's offer to give it Russian-made fighter jets for Ukraine

The United States rejected a surprise offer by NATO ally Poland on Tuesday to transfer its Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets to a U.S. base in Germany as a way to replenish Ukraine's air force in its defense against invading Russian forces.

www.reuters.com

Poland could have offered Ukraine to uplift the jets and fly them to a destination, so they are far from blameless. And their government is a bit nuts, so they probably made the offer in this way to deflect blame onto the US. Lots of diplomatic dances by NATO allies while Ukraine suffocates. Not a good look.

Yes it's fair but the war is going to be defensive for sometime yet. Also you don't commit armoured forces unless you get at least parity in the air which is something the Ukrainian army hasn't got yet.

That being said the Russians are struggling to over come the Ukrainian air defenses and are flying low to avoid them, also the Ukrainian army does have a decent number of tanks, mainly T 64 upgrades so yes converting those crews to say a Leopard 2 could be done possibly sooner

 

[Bada-Bing!]

War in Ukraine: UK soldier AWOL amid fears he is heading to Ukraine

The 19-year-old left his Windsor barracks at the weekend, an Army source confirms to the BBC.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Gavin]

I wonder what the correlation is between vaccine scepticism and pro Russian / anti western beliefs

Case in point a friend on social media who believes COVID-19 was manmade in an attempt to start the New World Order / Great Reset and that Trump was draining the swamp of pedophilic groups across the world, notably in the Democratic party.

Now they post this:



They also believe that the war has been fabricated by the fossil fuel net 0% lobby to reduce the world's reliance on fossil fuels

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I wonder what the correlation is between vaccine scepticism and pro Russian / anti western beliefs

Case in point a friend on social media who believes COVID-19 was manmade in an attempt to start the New World Order / Great Reset and that Trump was draining the swamp of pedophilic groups across the world, notably in the Democratic party.

Now they post this:

View attachment 13584

They also believe that the war has been fabricated by the fossil fuel net 0% lobby to reduce the world's reliance on fossil fuels

You may wish to politely ask them if they support Putin's annexation of Ukraine then consider your friendship based on the response.

Here is a small act of heroism from an unknown Pole or Ukrainian at a refugee centre in Poland. The centre is being visited by Italian extreme right winger, pro-Putin and anti-refugee politician Matteo Salvini, and things don't quite go as planned!



The two main extreme right wing parties in Italy are currently polling a combined 38%, so this may be a minor victory only on Italy's march to the political loonie bin next summer.

If Putin's actions don't knock support for the extreme right wing, then nothing will.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Poland not letting the jets slide and approaching it much more professionally now. Should have done this first time around. Still waiting on US to articulate why supply MiGs is now suddenly "untenable" but that a humanitarian crisis specifically magnified by a failure to provide such jets is tenable.

Poland says NATO countries must act together on jets for Ukraine

Any supply of fighter jets to Ukraine must be done jointly by NATO countries, the Polish prime minister said on Wednesday, after Washington rejected Poland's offer to fly all its MIG-29 jets to a U.S. airbase with a view to them being given to Kyiv.

www.reuters.com

 

[McTallshort]

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

View attachment 13589

I grew up about 500 meters from there and have no idea how they managed to get a truck through the gates, it's a corner on a very narrow road.

 

[Amiga500]

Poland not letting the jets slide and approaching it much more professionally now. Should have done this first time around. Still waiting on US to articulate why supply MiGs is now suddenly "untenable" but that a humanitarian crisis specifically magnified by a failure to provide such jets is tenable.

Poland says NATO countries must act together on jets for Ukraine

Any supply of fighter jets to Ukraine must be done jointly by NATO countries, the Polish prime minister said on Wednesday, after Washington rejected Poland's offer to fly all its MIG-29 jets to a U.S. airbase with a view to them being given to Kyiv.

www.reuters.com

TBH, they probably got sick of the Yanks saying "we're trying to encourage the Poles to do it", when in fact it turns out the Yanks don't want to share any responsibility for it. Fuking two faced politicians.

If flying them out of the NATO HQ in Europe isn't good enough for NATO - then why the fuk should the Poles be expected to take all the risk themselves?


[as you know the Russians could well turn around and launch a few missiles at whatever base they fly out of and into Ukraine]

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

The US is trying to now equate selling military hardware like jets to Ukraine with sending NATO troops into Ukraine in terms of "provocation" to Russia. Laughable. This is the first major blunder from the NATO side in my opinion as they've played this extremely well from even before the war starting. Putin would have no grounds for attacking a Polish airfield used by a Ukrainian pilot to fly a jet to Ukraine that has been purchased by Ukraine. If the backbone can't be found for selling jets then realistically it is a concession that nothing will be done to assist the Moldovas, Taiwans and South Koreas of this world if a tyrant decides to go on the offensive.

This is a huge moment for the 21st century I think. It goes beyond the now inevitable and irreversible suffering of Ukrainians who will shortly be encircled in their millions, starve, die of pneumonia in winter and/or be wiped out by Covid while huddling together in communal air shelters with zero prospect of medical assistance.

If I was Zelensky I'd be inserting into peace talks as an option permitting the Russian military free transit to the NATO borders plus military bases and nuclear missile silos in west Ukraine. He has to look after his people first and foremost and if throwing NATO under the bus in some way helps secure a better peace deal then he should explore those options. Perhaps that might focus some minds in Washington. If Zelensky doesn't find a way to up-the-anti we could be looking at hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian deaths if Russia persists.

The only way I can tolerate the US for this u-turn is if:

a) they have intel that contrary to what they have said, Russia would strike a Polish airfield in response
OR
b) they have confidence their sanction package will bring Russia to its knees in the next couple of months (which might save Ukrainian lives) rather than longer term.
OR
c) They never say another word about siding with Ukraine and doing everything possible to assist.

Even the sanctions are nothing to do with helping Ukraine, it's about the longer term interests of NATO nations. They have probably already started boiling their shoes to make soup in some encircled Ukrainian cities.