[2018 6 Nations] Round 5 : England v Ireland (17/03/2018)

[Genghis]

Losing two away games isn't a crisis. Wales have lost two away games, and we have taken some positives from the losses (I think our youngsters have surprised us a bit)

I foresee an old-fashioned arm wrestle of a game. A barrage of high balls, massive collisions in midfield and a fair degree of drama. Both teams might start playing to 'not lose' rather than to win?

Ireland always seem to be consistent, and England are not suddenly rubbish.

Looking at the 6N table: Ireland could easily have lost to France, Wales might have nicked it against England, France could have pipped Scotland, and Scotland might have actually turned up against Wales. The table could have been so different.

Only one team have won away from home all 6N (discounting Rome). Home advantage is hugely important.... and I think that might counteract dips in form, confidence etc. As a neutral observer, I'm going for a tight England win in this game.

 

[Mr Ruggleby]

Home advantage in rugby is stems from the home crowd making infringements against them more obvious to a ref. Refs blow quicker for holding on, high tackles will be looked at etc... when boos and jeers ring through a stadium. I'd imagine that with each lower level you go home advantage means less and less due to less spectators.

You say that and yet the average points difference for home advantage in this tournament has been 11 (in favour of the home side) and yet the average penalties conceded difference is only 1.66 (the home team conceding 1.66 fewer). That suggests that there are other factors benefiting home teams than simply the penalty count.

If you take Italy (and their propensity to give away a lot of penalties wherever they play) out of the equation, the average penalty difference drops to 0.66 between home and away sides. Yet the win rate remains over 87% for home teams. Please explain.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

**** it come on Ireland!!!!

 

[ratsapprentice]

 

[ncurd]

15 Anthony Watson (Bath Rugby 32 caps), 14 Jonny May (Leicester Tigers 33 caps), 13 Jonathan Joseph (Bath Rugby 39 caps), 12 Ben Te'o (Worcester Warriors 12 caps), 11 Elliot Daly (Wasps 17 caps), 10 Owen Farrell (Saracens 57 caps), 9 Richard Wigglesworth (Saracens 30 caps), 1 Mako Vunipola (Saracens 48 caps), 2 Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints 92 caps), 3 Kyle Sinckler (Harlequins 9 caps), 4 Maro Itoje (Saracens 18 caps), 5 George Kruis (Saracens 24 caps), 6 Chris Robshaw (Harlequins 63 caps), 7 James Haskell (Wasps 76 caps), 8 Sam Simmonds (Exeter Chiefs 6 caps).

Finishers
16 Jamie George (Saracens 24 caps), 17 Joe Marler (Harlequins 55 caps), 18 Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers 81 caps), 19 Joe Launchbury (Wasps 51 caps), 20 Don Armand (Exeter Chiefs 1 cap), 21 Danny Care (Harlequins 80 caps), 22 George Ford (Leicester Tigers 44 caps), 23 Mike Brown (Harlequins 68 caps).


Can't agree with dropping Launchbury at all (Seriously that's madness) or Ford.
Hartley starting booooooo. but Sickeler instead of Cole is far better gain.
But the backrow isn't terrible (its not great either).
Wigglesworth starting as well.
Lawes dropped entirely is good.

We've responded at least with changes not convinced it will be enough.

 

[Amiga500]

Ford - Farrell - Daly would be what would scare me most, Daly can beat a defender with no space whatsoever and would likely slip Him Jr at least once.

I didn't think Daly was an option - injured...?

Ford has the tools to get the job done. He just needs to grow the cajones.

 

[BenJeffrey]

Sticking with the same back 3, Saracens pairings at 9+10 and 4+5, one of the better balanced backrow's that we've had in a while, Cole dropped for Sinckler.

Can see Teo coming off for Ford towards the end, with the FF axis reignited. You know what, it's not half bad... Still Ireland to win for me.

 

[Amiga500]

Happy with Teo at 12, not so happy at seeing Cole dropped. Anthony Watson will be getting a serious aerial examination.


But, still think we can* win either a 9 man game or a 15 man game - depending which suits the best.


*of course, can =/= will!

 

[Fuzzy du Plessis]

The Irish will be ******* ******** themselves at the thought of a fired up Dan Cole coming off the bench for the final 20 minutes.

He might even make half a metre in his only carry before falling over.

 

[Lé Ddanno]

The Irish will be ******* ******** themselves at the thought of a fired up Dan Cole coming off the bench for the final 20 minutes.

He might even make half a metre in his only carry before falling over.

Or while supporting Brown in his dash for the line in a four on one overlap waiting for the pass.

 

[ratsapprentice]

Interdasting.

 

[McTallshort]

I didn't think Daly was an option - injured...?

Ford has the tools to get the job done. He just needs to grow the cajones.

no its the Pack that need the cajones and get him some decent ball

 

[TRF_Olyy]

That's not too bad to be fair, arguably the best we could make from the players available in the eps

I'm a huge fan of krutoje so hoping they can pull it out if the bag.

 

[RugbyMarvel]

Hartley Starting: If fit he was never going to miss out. I'd prefer LCD on the bench and George starting, or LCD on the bench whatever, but oh well.

Sinckler for Cole: Will mean a much more direct carrier, who will also get through more work. Don't think it'll adversely affect the scrum that much.

Kruis for Launchbury: Clever move, that I didn't expect. Obviously as we have gone from 3 to 2 jumpers, the expertise and lineout nause of Kruis become important. Launchbury will offer more than Kruis from the bench too.

Haskell to 7: Good move, he will clear rucks, lead the line and offer himself up in the tight. Not a flash player and not a world class player but very effective at what he does.

Armand on the bench: I suppose it does make sense. He covers the entire back row and will offer some serious carrying ability at 60 min when the likes of Mako/Sincks are replaced by Marler/Cole

Wigglesworth over Care: Good choice. Care will add impetus from the bench, but Wiggy/Farrell have a good club relationship and I expect the kicking game will improve 10 fold. There will be more control and Wiggy is better at getting forwards and tight runners into the right places.

Ford out, Farrell to 10: It was almost inevitable. Sad to see the dual playmaker system go but Ford hasn't shone and conversely Faz has looked shaky at 12 - arguably because of Ford. Farrell has really added to his game so he will look a lot better here.

All in all, happy. The only changes I would have made to this side realistically would have been:

Marler starting, Mako to bench.

Williams on bench over Cole.

 

[Amiga500]

no its the Pack that need the cajones and get him some decent ball

Yes, well, true.

But my post was in the context of us bullying Ford and Ford being a non-entity for the defence to worry about.

 

[Amiga500]

Kruis for Launchbury: Clever move, that I didn't expect. Obviously as we have gone from 3 to 2 jumpers, the expertise and lineout nause of Kruis become important. Launchbury will offer more than Kruis from the bench too.

Not sure if that will work out a clever move. Dunno if I'd fancy 2 good jumpers vs. O'Mahony and Toner on a defensive line-out.

Coupled with a full back whose positional sense will be under serious examination.

Could very well backfire.


edit: But, I suppose EJ is damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. You don't have a 6 in England that can do both the rucking and the jumping in the same vein as POM. But against that, Robshaw's carrying is better.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Yes, well, true.

But my post was in the context of us bullying Ford and Ford being a non-entity for the defence to worry about.

As opposed to Faz who misses a lot more tackles and even more of a non-entity at attack.
Only difference might be Ariel game but who wants to kick to the Irish back 3.

 

[Amiga500]

As opposed to Faz who misses a lot more tackles and even more of a non-entity at attack.
Only difference might be Ariel game but who wants to kick to the Irish back 3.

Does he not miss the tackles 'cos he is covering for two?

re. running; he's looked good enough from 12 when there is a gap. Dunno how he'll go from 10 though. Different kinda pressure there.

 

[RugbyMarvel]

As opposed to Faz who misses a lot more tackles and even more of a non-entity at attack.
Only difference might be Ariel game but who wants to kick to the Irish back 3.

He misses more at 12, more secure at 10. With Ford at 10 he is a speed bump, and then the 7/12 have to constantly help him out.

His attacking game has improve exponentially, and Ford can't get his fans going if even slightly on back foot

 

[RugbyMarvel]

Not sure if that will work out a clever move. Dunno if I'd fancy 2 good jumpers vs. O'Mahony and Toner on a defensive line-out.

Coupled with a full back whose positional sense will be under serious examination.

Could very well backfire.


edit: But, I suppose EJ is damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. You don't have a 6 in England that can do both the rucking and the jumping in the same vein as POM. But against that, Robshaw's carrying is better.

Obviously they want a proper 6 and Lawes isn't even an option to fill in now he's crocked. So rather than Itoje/Launch, it's a good idea to bring in a player who is well known as a specialist line out man. He will read the Irish lineout better and make the most of him, Itoje and Robshaw (at the tail).