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[2018 6 Nations] Round 5 : England v Ireland (17/03/2018)

Xsypher said:
You say that and yet the average points difference for home advantage in this tournament has been 11 (in favour of the home side) and yet the average penalties conceded difference is only 1.66 (the home team conceding 1.66 fewer). That suggests that there are other factors benefiting home teams than simply the penalty count.

If you take Italy (and their propensity to give away a lot of penalties wherever they play) out of the equation, the average penalty difference drops to 0.66 between home and away sides. Yet the win rate remains over 87% for home teams. Please explain.
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That's a small sample with two outliers in Ireland v France where Ireland had 67% possession and even then France should have conceded far more penalties with a good ref, they lived offside and slowed the ball down illegally all day, as well as England v Wales where England were bossed all day at the breakdown, these were also the two closest games of the championship so far. I'm not all that interested in looking up every stat but I think the influence of the crowd on the ref is a bigger factor than the crowd on 30 players who all have sports psychologists working with them.

Having read a couple of Sports psychology books they all say the only influence other people can have on individual performance is before the performance itself whether it be pre-game, half time or weeks before when the athlete seeks help, for a marathon runner for example they say not to base your intervals (three to four mile segments) around when you know your support will be there, more anecdotally the three people I know who have ran 3+ marathons all have their PB in the one race they had no support to come out and see them.

I imagine the changed routine is the biggest factor psychologically too. Pro athletes are the most routine orientated people in the world, they are still living like school children and are told where to be and when, if you were to take a schoolchild out of his school and place him in another school three days before an exam the performance would almost certainly be worse, add in travel, different food, a different bed, possibly a different climate etc... and the change in routine from one that you have been used to no way Jones' comments affect any player with skin thicker than paper more than factors like that nor does having less people cheer them on.
ratsapprentice said:
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That side isn't getting playing with width... Even if the pack could generate quick ball, and I doubt that backrow will, Wiggles, Farrell, Te'o and Joseph aren't the players to do it.

It looks like a side that has been picked to beat us at the game we were playing 12 months ago with a worse 9, 10 and wings to implement the kick chase. Their second row might be better than ours if they reel it back a few months form wise but I think we have better combos across the pitch apart from that. Armand is a worry off the bench but Murphy is our best groundhog and a strong defender, if we're winning late in the game Toner is perfect sub too to try to counteract Launchbury, I have no fear of George Ford. If this was in Dublin I'd be confident of a comfy win, I think we should take it here too.
 
Amiga500 said:
Does he not miss the tackles 'cos he is covering for two?

re. running; he's looked good enough from 12 when there is a gap. Dunno how he'll go from 10 though. Different kinda pressure there.
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Nope, he's just indisciplined in defence and rushes out leaving doglegs or defensive holes behind him
Sarries have made a virtue of it, by targetting him at the FH's outside shoulder and trying to turn him back towards their flankers - but that doesn't work from 12; and doesn't really work at international level.
He's been better at this this 6N, but he's still doing it, just not carrying through; so is leaving a dogleg instead of a gaping hole.

He's also running better lines from 12 - but IMO Ford's lack of running threat recently is down to a combination of poor service from 9; an IC who doesn't keep the defence honest; and a slow backrow - meaning he's up against a set defence with an additional flanker; 2 defenders who don't need to worry about drifting to 12, and that he risks getting ragdolled and turned over if he actually attacks the defensive line. These changes will provide Farrell with an IC to interest defences, and actual flankers at flanker; but he's really not a running threat because he just isn't a running threat - nor does he have Ford's ability to put the ball int he right place once he's interested the defence.
RugbyMarvel said:
He misses more at 12, more secure at 10. With Ford at 10 he is a speed bump, and then the 7/12 have to constantly help him out.

His attacking game has improve exponentially, and Ford can't get his fans going if even slightly on back foot
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This simply isn't true. Farrell misses more tackles at 10 than he does at 12. Ford makes his tackles, but loses ground in doing so - Farrell fails to make his tackles, losing far more ground as the attacker si running at clear space. Ford does often need a little help getting his man down, Farrell does often need someone else to make the tackle for him.
Yup - Farrell's attacking game has improved exponentially - after 60-odd caps he's become an acceptable-but-limited FH who lacks vision to spot where the ball should be, and skills to get it there going left to right. Ford's attacking is as effected by being on the backfoot as any other FH; but it's not really that that's hampering him, it's the slow ball, lack of players presenting options, lack of running threat from 12 and lack of support from his backrow.


Quite honestly, neither Faz nor Ford are in great form at the moment; and either would play better with Te'o (who I don't like) at IC and actual flankers on the flanks. I don't particularly mind which of Faz or Ford gets that starting berth currently; but it would be nice if both had a chance whilst set up to succeed (well, ish, look at the SH and who the chosen OSF is), rather than whilst set up to fail.
 
Which Tyler said:
Nope, he's just indisciplined in defence and rushes out leaving doglegs or defensive holes behind him
Sarries have made a virtue of it, by targetting him at the FH's outside shoulder and trying to turn him back towards their flankers - but that doesn't work from 12; and doesn't really work at international level.
He's been better at this this 6N, but he's still doing it, just not carrying through; so is leaving a dogleg instead of a gaping hole.

He's also running better lines from 12 - but IMO Ford's lack of running threat recently is down to a combination of poor service from 9; an IC who doesn't keep the defence honest; and a slow backrow - meaning he's up against a set defence with an additional flanker; 2 defenders who don't need to worry about drifting to 12, and that he risks getting ragdolled and turned over if he actually attacks the defensive line. These changes will provide Farrell with an IC to interest defences, and actual flankers at flanker; but he's really not a running threat because he just isn't a running threat - nor does he have Ford's ability to put the ball int he right place once he's interested the defence.

This simply isn't true. Farrell misses more tackles at 10 than he does at 12. Ford makes his tackles, but loses ground in doing so - Farrell fails to make his tackles, losing far more ground as the attacker si running at clear space. Ford does often need a little help getting his man down, Farrell does often need someone else to make the tackle for him.
Yup - Farrell's attacking game has improved exponentially - after 60-odd caps he's become an acceptable-but-limited FH who lacks vision to spot where the ball should be, and skills to get it there going left to right. Ford's attacking is as effected by being on the backfoot as any other FH; but it's not really that that's hampering him, it's the slow ball, lack of players presenting options, lack of running threat from 12 and lack of support from his backrow.


Quite honestly, neither Faz nor Ford are in great form at the moment; and either would play better with Te'o (who I don't like) at IC and actual flankers on the flanks. I don't particularly mind which of Faz or Ford gets that starting berth currently; but it would be nice if both had a chance whilst set up to succeed (well, ish, look at the SH and who the chosen OSF is), rather than whilst set up to fail.
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Thought I'd look at Farrells tackle stats for Sarries. Just a quick glance and I admit I was wrong. Good lord it's not a happy percentage to look at.
 
This could be the first time, I think, that of the two 23s, there is not one England player I would have on current form in the Irish side .

Ireland by 20...
 
The Alpha Bro said:
6 tries in three games Stockdale? No thanks!
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Yeah the caveat of on current form absolutely rules out anyone ahead of Stockdale.

VdW stood down by World Rugby for this game and Nigel Owens from that 'shitty little country takes his place'. :p
 
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Farrell's tackle stats would probably be better if he just tried to stop the opposing player instead of trying to hit them into next week. He often get's caught trying to go too high and hard on people much bigger than him.
 
Donning the flame suit from the Irish. :p I would take George over Best and have Haskell in the team for the extra banter.
 
I don't read too much in to farrell's tackle stats as his role in the Sarries defence is to blitz and pressure the opposition in to rushing a decision.
Sam Tuitupou did the same role for sale and his tackle stats were terrible however he is a vveerryy good defender, It's just the role he played.

big ginger 8 said:
Yeah the caveat of on current form absolutely rules out anyone ahead of Stockdale.

VdW stood down by World Rugby for this game and Nigel Owens from that 'shitty little country takes his place'. :p
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Please tell me this is a joke and we don't have to suffer through the Nige show this weekend


Edit: ******* hell you're not joking
Owens is incompetent, not biased, so I don't think it impacts on the result however it will impact on the enjoyment levels of everyone watching the game as he completely ruins it.
 
TRF_Olyy said:
Please tell me this is a joke and we don't have to suffer through the Nige show this weekend


Edit: ******* hell you're not joking
Owens is incompetent, not biased, so I don't think it impacts on the result however it will impact on the enjoyment levels of everyone watching the game as he completely ruins it.
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Just as AR I believe so while he'll try to take over any chance he gets he'll only get like 5-10,000 chances.
 
Nigel Owens is the most overly vocal AR I've ever seen. I understand working within a team but it is painful to see just how much he wants to be in control
 
Must say it seems like the hype and build up hasn't got going yet. Even after the whole Jones comments. Suppose that good from Irish POV as it slightly lessens pressures
 

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