[2015 TRC] Australia v New Zealand in Sydney (08/08/2015)

[smartcooky]

@smartcooky

Looking at that I'd be more worried about Owens/Joubert records with the AB's than Barnes', whilst the AB's are a great team their win record in that period is still extremely high especially considering how many games they don't just steamroller a team away.

No, I disagree with that entirely. The All Blacks win record over that period has been 86.5% which means that their record with Owens as referee (87%) is about right.

While Joubert's is higher at 91%, you have take into account that he cannot referee matches involving South Africa, who we have lost to more often than any other team, 6 of the 14 losses over that period. The loss and the draw that Joubert refereed were both against Australia, the second "most loss" team at 5 of the 14 losses

 

[nickdnz]

Kainos defense is good. But we no longer have a ball carrier in the looseys or mobility to get to the breakdown, Kaino was non-existent at the breakdown and won no ball, if he's making that many tackles, why's he not winning the pill? Ardie Savea could cure both of these issues or at least be an option.

I think we do have a ball carrier in the loose forwards. Kaino (as he played last year) is usually a very, very good ball carrier in the tight, while Read is one of the most effective ball carriers out wide probably in the world. At 32 and 29 they are not so removed from where they were in 2011 in terms of their physical capability.

I think Ardie Savea could well become a great option after this year. But if we were going to select him and get him ready, it would have had to have been prior to our final warm up match going into the World Cup.

 

[TobesHodges]

So do you Kiwi Lads think Milner-Scudder will make the plane to England now? also, thoughts on bringing in a more mobile loose forward to quicken up the break down like Ardie Savea, Elliot Dixon or maybe Messam back to 6?

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Newsflash, hold the phone

Openside Flankers cheat!

(pictures at 10)
​

You should be telling that to Austen, not me. I know they cheat, as far as they can get away with it. Doesn't make it right. What I can't stand is Austen's hypocrisy. An All Black fan blaming a ref for not penalising the opposition for illegally slowing ruck ball down really is pot calling the kettle black.

 

[ncurd]

No, I disagree with that entirely. The All Blacks win record over that period has been 86.5% which means that their record with Owens as referee (87%) is about right.

While Joubert's is higher at 91%, you have take into account that he cannot referee matches involving South Africa, who we have lost to more often than any other team, 6 of the 14 losses over that period. The loss and the draw that Joubert refereed were both against Australia, the second "most loss" team at 5 of the 14 losses

Yes but on equal measure Barnes' games where you lost were 1 x SA and 2 x Aus and 2007 Fra so weren't exactly under the definite win categories.

However this a pretty stupid argument nobodies reffed enough games to out of statistical variation.

Personally I think the 86.5% win rate is probably a little flattering however that's a purely personal opinion.

 

[RedruthRFC]

However this a pretty stupid argument nobodies reffed enough games to out of statistical variation.

This +100!

 

[Jaguares]

The tribute for some old players can cost you the WC.

Ardie Savea is best openside flanker in NZ ATM but McCaw plays

Sopoaga/Barrett are the best first-five available (Cruden is the best IMO) but Carter plays

Fekitoa is the best centre after "Nonu-Smith" but SBW has more oportunities and Hansen will pick him for the WC squad

Ben Smith is the best fullback but Izzy Dagg is the starter #15

Cory Jane is a former player but if he wasn't injured, he would still be the starter right winger

These tributes could cost to the ABs dearly. Sir McCaw must reach the 150 caps, Carter must go on 1600 points, SBW must sell Adidas jerseys, Cory Jane is a good roommate, etc,etc

 

[Kiwi_]

The tribute for some old players can cost you the WC.

Ardie Savea is best openside flanker in NZ ATM but McCaw plays

Sopoaga/Barrett are the best first-five available (Cruden is the best IMO) but Carter plays

Fekitoa is the best centre after "Nonu-Smith" but SBW has more oportunities and Hansen will pick him for the WC squad

Ben Smith is the best fullback but Izzy Dagg is the starter #15

Cory Jane is a former player but if he wasn't injured, he would still be the starter right winger

These tributes could cost to the ABs dearly. Sir McCaw must reach the 150 caps, Carter must go on 1600 points, SBW must sell Adidas jerseys, Cory Jane is a good roommate, etc,etc

Exactly.

This is a common occurrence in sport, you see it everywhere, teams not being able to let go of ageing greats.

 

[The Jones Boy]

Congratulations to the Wallabies, they absolutely played their hearts out and they stayed in the match all the way never letting the All blacks have the breathing space to get ahead and create a buffer.
Carter missed two conversions i would expect an in form DC to get and the Aussie kicker was remarkably effective compared to his regular stats.
Kicks win games just like catches win cricket matches. Had DC kept us within 3 points it could have been a very different last 6 minutes.
Great lesson served up by the Wallabies on the eve of the RWC.
No room for complacency.
Also, no need for knee jerk actions.
Lift the accuracy and the intensity... and play the best team for once please.
The springbok team are meddling with their squad and I don't think it's doing them any favours heading in to the RWC.

 

[nzlizard]

My biggest concern is lack of turnovers and speed to the breakdown.

Something that Cane and Savea did extremely well during super rugby, yet where are they?

 

[kesh]

THIS. I honestly think Barnes had alot more influence on the result of this game than many think. The proof of that will be this weekend.

- - - Updated - - -

With a different ref and at Eden Park? More proof likely in the WC - Sun 20 Sep 8 New Zealand v Argentina Wembley Stadium London 16:45 Wayne Barnes (RFU)

 

[austingtir]

This got me thinking that perhaps I need to dig through some results and put some numbers on this.

Since Wayne Barnes started his international career in 2006, he has refereed the All Blacks eight times

2007 v France (lost)
2008 v Scotland (won)
2010 v Ireland (won)
2011 v Australia (lost)
2013 v France (won)
2014 v Wales (won)
2014 v South Africa (lost)
2015 v Australia (lost)

That is a 50% win/loss record; 36% below their overall record over that period and the worst record with any referee.
The All Blacks have never won a Tri-Nations or Rugby Championship match that was refereed by Wayne Barnes (0 & 3)

The next is George Clancy, 3 losses from 7 games (57%)

Here are the full stats for all the current referees (not retired and still still on the Elite Referees Panel)

PS: Not implying anything, just putting some facts on the table. People can draw their own conclusions.

Im not a stats expert but tell me im not dreaming when I say we've lost something like 4 games since 2011. And Mr Barnes has been in control of 3 of them..... I mean FFS come on.

Hansen will know exactly what the story is but he's keeping mum for obvious reasons imo.

- - - Updated - - -

With a different ref and at Eden Park? More proof likely in the WC - Sun 20 Sep 8 New Zealand v Argentina Wembley Stadium London 16:45 Wayne Barnes (RFU)

Yep bit of a worry because Argentina are hugely underrated by NZ fans and world wide imo. They choked the **** out of SA in SA. Almost totally dominant.

I dont think they can beat us but you never know and even I didnt know that we had such a poor record under Barnes. Its concerning to say the least. Realistically Argentina do have all the tools to beat us in a one off game given the right "conditions".

 

[Mcfadden]

My biggest concern is lack of turnovers and speed to the breakdown.

Something that Cane and Savea did extremely well during super rugby, yet where are they?

Well it's just as most of this thread has said. Typically you stick with the incumbents on a World Cup year. So Cane and Savea (especially Savea) were never going to permanently replace McCaw. But I do agree and concede we need to adjust our team according to our opposition. Last time Australia tried a double openside flanker combo it failed. This time is different. Sam Cane could get away with a start in Eden Park. It would be nice to give him at least one stretch of the legs at the top level before the WC tournament. McCaw could shift into blindside flanker for that particular game. Although McCaw might be slower, it still gives that extra chance at turnover ball by somebody has spent so much of his career doing just that.

I'd be be utilizing Thrush off the bench. I'd be fully confident that he can handle that level of intensity if and when needed. For somebody who had a "quiet" Super Rugby campaign he was one of the top tacklers. (he was actually New Zealand's third best tackler in the competition). He was also pretty mammoth last year, so he has that edge of being in the environment. Not entirely sure why they've persisted with Romano. When he first sprang on to the scene pre-injury he was good I suppose. But he has become typical of the Crusaders archilles heel; being too predictable.

The All Blacks just have to get smarter. Part of last week may have been through their own design: i.e: holding back game plans for the World Cup, opting to accelerate in the last 20, etc. To an extent, they won't want to play all their cards. They need to commit more men to the breakdown, use an appropriate clean out and I wouldn't mind seeing an aggressive defensive pattern. Not just a "wait for you to come to me" thing. Away from Australia, and having to travel to such a fortress, I think the Wallabies won't be quite so on the button. Dangerous? of course. But a lesser version.

 

[Kiwi_]

Seems like we have wasted our time on Sam Cane the last few All Black seasons.. We played him like we were preparing him to be part of this RWC, also Ardie was even taken on tour at one point. It's not like these guys aren't experienced. They are also inform and some of our best options (not talking about McCaw) and should be at least on the bank or given a chance. Too many old fellas and old mates have got the nod here and the team in imbalanced because of them IMO.

 

[austingtir]

Seems like we have wasted our time on Sam Cane the last few All Black seasons.. We played him like we were preparing him to be part of this RWC, also Ardie was even taken on tour at one point. It's not like these guys aren't experienced. They are also inform and some of our best options (not talking about McCaw) and should be at least on the bank or given a chance. Too many old fellas and old mates have got the nod here and the team in imbalanced because of them IMO.

Ardies worse than his brother. He's flaky. He makes stupid ass mistakes. And generally handles himself off the field like a 12 year old kid. Not someone id like to see replace Mccaw anytime soon.

Matt todd imo is the best openside in NZ suitable for internationals atm (that said his game may not suit this particular match against Australia). Cane is not far behind but has been bloody patchy when iv seen him play this year.

 

[Shaggy]

Can't see too many changes for the next match to be honest, apart from Nonu for SBW, and maybe Messam or Cane for Kaino ... Perhaps Fekitoa for C.Smith ... Anyway it's really about lessening the mistakes and regular game time for the regular players than mass changes in personnel.

They might have changed quite a few players if they had one this game; congrats to the Wallabies.

On form the back three for the ABs should be NMS, Piutau, and B.Smith, but we need an in form J.Savea, but well only get that if we play him, so i'm guessing Puitau won't start.

The tribute for some old players can cost you the WC.

Ardie Savea is best openside flanker in NZ ATM but McCaw plays

Sopoaga/Barrett are the best first-five available (Cruden is the best IMO) but Carter plays

Fekitoa is the best centre after "Nonu-Smith" but SBW has more oportunities and Hansen will pick him for the WC squad

Ben Smith is the best fullback but Izzy Dagg is the starter #15

Cory Jane is a former player but if he wasn't injured, he would still be the starter right winger

These tributes could cost to the ABs dearly. Sir McCaw must reach the 150 caps, Carter must go on 1600 points, SBW must sell Adidas jerseys, Cory Jane is a good roommate, etc,etc

I disagree with just about all of points actually; I would actually rate Savea as fourth best, but he's certainly one for the future. McCaw was the best out of an under performing loose trio, for the ABs, as both Kaino and Read made more mistakes than Richie did.

Sopoaga is inexperienced at international level, and is often hidden out on the wing on defense, where as Carter defends the 10 channel well. Barrett ( who I like) hasn't proven himself as a reliably consistent starting 10 (particularly in the goal kicking department), despite being given the opportunities to do so ... You forgot to mention Slade, who has been more reliable in recent times.

The Midfield is easy to point fingers at in hindsight, but had Nonu not been injured, he'd have started in this match. SBW, when he's in form, is a game breaker, and needs game time ( which is something Hansen has done for other players in the past) ... He may miss out to Fekitoa in the final RWC squad, but he had to be given the opportunity.

I agree that Ben Smith is the best fullback, and Hansen selected him for this match because of that, but what happens if say, he gets concussed trying to tackle Adam Ashley-Cooper, and he doesn't recover in time for the next match? They need a backup with recent game time, don't they, and whether that's Barrett, Dagg, NMS, or Puitau, I'm not sure ... They probably wanted to give Dagg the chance first.

Cory Jane, if he wasn't injured would probably be under the same pressure as Dagg, and would have received probably a similar number of opportunities. He was effectively displaced by Ben Smith when he got injured previously.

As a final comment, Hansen and co have made considerable efforts to establish the right mix of young and experienced players, and I don't think they'll be scared of weilding the axe to cut under performing player if they need to; this was just one game, and the Wallabies are bl00dy hard to beat at home - it doesn't really surprise me that the ABs have dropped a match this year ... Hopefully they'll get the benefit from the loss when it's crunch time at the RWC

 

[Kiwi_]

I'm not saying replace Richie at all, that's beyond stupid, but we can tweak the team to make it better.

 

[nik]

I was a bit surprised to see Sam Cane coming off the bench so late in the game. Usually he comes on for Kaino with at least 20 mins to go. I wasn't sure if the coaches had stuffed up or they wanted to see if Kaino can play close to a full game. Whatever it was I found it a bit strange considering we were losing the breakdown battle in the second half so it would have been logical to bring on Cane early rather than with 7-8 mins to go. However it should be noted that these games (trinations/rugby championship) are basically unofficial warm ups in World Cup year. The AB coaches do not want to show all their cards and why should they? They are probably the most scrutinised team.

Same goes for Aaron Smith, could have been replaced with TJP a bit earlier in the game rather than 2 mins to go. Seems to me that ABs had a plan to test out a few things rather which eventually affected the result of the game in a negative way for them.

Also if they had won the game, this weekends game would have been a dead rubber. All in all, the result is right for everyone - ABs, Wallabies, spectators and world rugby - this weekends game could probably be the best test match of the year - yes big call in a world cup year lol.

 

[Kiwi_]

I see Ian Jones claims we were holding back against the Aussies.. I odn't buy that, missed tackles is not holding back, it's just poor Rugby.

 

[austingtir]

So do you Kiwi Lads think Milner-Scudder will make the plane to England now? also, thoughts on bringing in a more mobile loose forward to quicken up the break down like Ardie Savea, Elliot Dixon or maybe Messam back to 6?

If we want a ball carrier then its Brad Shields for me. For me he was the outstanding loose forward that has not been selected in the AB's yet.

Ardie needs a few more years and Dixon other than a couple of moments of brilliance is not on the same level as Shields.

Shields has the potential to be another Jerry Collins for us.


End of the day the horse has bolted its far to late to be making major changes to this team now. Kaino and Messam are good enough they just need a rocket and I think they've got it.