[2015 RWC] Pool A: Wales vs. Fiji (01/10/2015)

[TRF_heineken]

Millennium Stadium, Cardiff (01/10/2015, 16:45)
Pool A, Round 3
Referee: John Lacey

Teams

Wales: 15 Matthew Morgan, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Tyler Morgan, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (captain), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Tom Francis, 2 Scott Baldwin, 1 Gethin Jenkins

Substitutes: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Aaron Jarvis, 18 Samson Lee, 19 Luke Charteris, 20 Justin Tipuric, 21 Lloyd Williams, 22 Rhys Priestland, 23 James Hook

Fiji: 1. Campese Ma'afu, 2. Sunia Koto, 3. Manasa Saulo, 4. Tevita Cavubati, 5. Leone Nakarawa, 6. Dominiko Waqaniburotu, 7. Akapusi Qera (Captain), 8. Netani Talei, 9. Nemia Kenatale, 10. Ben Volavola, 11. Aseli Tikoirotuma, 12. Lepani Botia, 13. Vereniki Goneva, 14. Timoci Nagusa, 15. Metuisela Talebula

Replacements: 16. Viliame Veikoso, 17. Peni Ravia, 18. Leeroy Atalifo, 19. Nemia Soqeta, 20. Malakai Ravulo, 21. Henry Seniloli, 22. Joshua Matavesi, 23. Kini Murimurivalu

 

[ABs2011]

Something tells me this could be another spanner in the works for pool A - it just seems like a bad match up for Wales.

Fiji - Nothing to lose and match hardened and IMO easily the best of the Island sides this tournament
Wales - injured and battered and possibly in danger of finding it tough mentally to get up after the England game.

Wales should win but I'll be putting my money on Fiji @ $6.5 and take them with a 15 point start as well.

 

[OneFansOpinion]

A Wales win here should secure qualification as I can't see England beating Australia. Always a tough game against Fiji, especially with all of our injuries.
But I still predict a win, possibly scraping a bonus point.

 

[AzaMatt]

I still think we will win, but it may be another nail-biter!

we will have another new centre partnership (but still not as many as england) so their defence will be tested. Be interesting to see what happens, as we will definitly need another winger as Amos seems almost certain to be out of the comp, its a shame as he was really starting to grow into the team. I can see him ousting cuthbert perminantly. For fiji i assume we will have cuthbert on one wing and north on the other UNLESS north switches to centre and eli walker goes to norths wing. the more likely option is roberts and t.morgan in centres and north stays on the wing, but im really nervous that roberts will pick up a knock.

 

[ABs2011]

A Wales win here should secure qualification as I can't see England beating Australia. Always a tough game against Fiji, especially with all of our injuries.
But I still predict a win, possibly scraping a bonus point.

A lot of people writing England off, but not only are they the favourites to beat OZ, they are the favs to win the group still too. Just thought I would point that out. The bonus point in this match could be critical for Wales too if they can manage it.

- - - Updated - - -

I still think we will win, but it may be another nail-biter!

we will have another new centre partnership (but still not as many as england) so their defence will be tested. Be interesting to see what happens, as we will definitly need another winger as Amos seems almost certain to be out of the comp, its a shame as he was really starting to grow into the team. I can see him ousting cuthbert perminantly. For fiji i assume we will have cuthbert on one wing and north on the other UNLESS north switches to centre and eli walker goes to norths wing. the more likely option is roberts and t.morgan in centres and north stays on the wing, but im really nervous that roberts will pick up a knock.

I think you should win too, I just think the bookies odds aren't a fair reflection of where both teams are at and worth taking a punt on.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Be interesting to see what happens, as we will definitly need another winger as Amos seems almost certain to be out of the comp

Gatland should be phoning around everyone who's grandparents have even looked at Wales on a map - there's a very real chance Wales will have to field Cuthbert and Morgan in the back 3 vs Nadolo. That would be carnage.

 

[nickdnz]

Have to say - I wish Wales all the luck in the world that there are no more injuries against Fiji, ahead of their Australia match. Generally I'd be rooting for Fiji in this match (love their style of play, and the underdog in general), but in this case I wish the best of the gutsy Welsh.

 

[AzaMatt]

Gatland should be phoning around everyone who's grandparents have even looked at Wales on a map - there's a very real chance Wales will have to field Cuthbert and Morgan in the back 3 vs Nadolo. That would be carnage.

Apprently theres a new winger who ate a welshcake once. that counts i guess

 

[ncurd]

Absolutely key game in the grand scheme of pool A.

Remember England got the bonus point victory against Fiji and Wales need that to be firmly masters of their own fate come the final weekend. Fail to do that and England have control of their own fate again.

What England are required to do depends wholly on this game as well a Wales loss and England just need to manage the same points from a loss against Aus to still be within a shout and probably be in the driving seat come the closing weekend. Bearing in mind a bonus point victory against Uruguay is virtually guaranteed considering they a 4 day turn around from their Fiji game....stupid schedule. If it comes to PD most would back England to get the required points as they playing a side that will offer little resistance to a determined team.



Finish work at 4:30 on Thursday(why is not the 8pm KO?) to watch this one.

 

[Willodell100]

An England fan here in peace. Just wanted to say congratulations on beating us. One hell of a feat for a side decimated by key injuries. Garland successfully got in Lancaster's head before the game and you were the better team on the night so fully deserved.

I've never been more interested in a Welsh rugby match not involving us!

I think this could be a really close game. It will be interesting as in a very odd way the pressure now is really on you guys.

By beating us at Twickenham you're done the hard bit but now back at home against a team that is 9 in the rankings.

I actually don't think it is their running threat that Wales should worry about. They more than matched us and Australia in the set piece. They pushed our 8 back twice on our own ball and they definitely had a big edge on Australia in the scrum and they pilfered 4 line outs too.

With this in mind, purely as a outsiders point of view (granted one with invested interests!), but I would be tempted to pick Charteris over Davies for his clean lineout work.

This however is dependent on Samson Lee being fit as think you'll need as much ballast as possible with a big Fijian scrum awaiting!

Anyone know the latest on the condition of your props?

 

[MojoPin]

Anyone know the latest on the condition of your props?

Firstly, bad luck for the loss - bad decisions nailed it but otherwise England played very, very well for the majority of the match. As much as it would help Wales if England lost to Australia I genuinely wish you the best of luck, will be a gripping match I'm sure.

As for the props - I think they're all fine from the sounds of it, none of them went off due to injury as far as I can remember.

Selection is absolutely key for Wales now against Fiji, but one advantage we do have is that we're going to have a hero's welcome at the Millenium stadium - that opening anthem is just going to be huge and it will be a big lift for the team. This is where all our fitness training will be truly tested - can the team deal with such a short turnaround to fend off a strong Fiji side? They've been very good so far and we're gonna have to put in a big, big effort to come out on top.

What we seem to be a little short on now is wings and I think it'll probably be North and either Cuthbert or Morgan on the other side. Either one poses a risk but we'll just have to keep our fingers crossed. I reckon Tyler Morgan will probably be the one that comes into the vacant 13 jersey, and wouldn't be surprised to see Tipuric start alongside possibly King and/or Moriarty to give some of our back row a bit of a breather.

Fullback is a potentially thorny issue - fingers crossed Williams can come back in time for the Australia match but in his place I reckon they'll be calling up Gareth Anscombe. Word on the grapevine is that his ankle is healed now, so I'd be very surprised if he didn't make it back in.

Going to be a very nervy game though and Gats unfortunately hasn't got much time to make his mind up!

 

[AzaMatt]

Anyone know the latest on the condition of your props?

i just had a mini heart attack then, im sure our props are ok, frantically checked all the news sites as couldnt remember any known injuries (although admittedly i was a little innebriated lol). as MojoPin said, its wing, fullback and centre we are short on at the moment. should have some more news later on today

 

[ncurd]

Wales to pick strong side for Fiji without many replacements....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/34376038

Odd bit of journalism making it sound like Fiji is a forgone conclusion if the Wales 4th team played instead of the 3rd's

Edwards speaking the most sense he has done for a while he know they can't afford to be complacent on Thursday otherwise all their good work from Saturday will be undone.

 

[valley commando]

A lot of people writing England off, but not only are they the favourites to beat OZ, they are the favs to win the group still too. Just thought I would point that out. The bonus point in this match could be critical for Wales too if they can manage it.

- - - Updated - - -



I think you should win too, I just think the bookies odds aren't a fair reflection of where both teams are at and worth taking a punt on.

How the bookies have us as favourites to win the group I have know idea, its going to be hard enough raising a side for Thursday, I suspect the smart money will be on Oz winning the group and Fiji on the handicap this Thursday.
Bizarrely odds checker has Wales and Oz 15/8 joint fav to win the group, but Oz at 3rd fav to qualify from the group very strange.

 

[wayevs]

This is gonna be a tough match but I think we can win it comfortably if we keep our heads , we need to play the ball in the right areas , hopefully charteris starts so we can secure a nice lineout ball and possibly steal a few against the head, biggar is in top form so should be competent of taking the 3 pointers and hitting those lines , strategy will be key in this game , the scrum will be interesting because they had England all over the place and England had an advantage over us so we will see if the England scrum improved or not, I just wonder if hook will be drafted in surely has to be the ideal player, would like to see north switched to centre now that SW is out . Wales by 10.

 

[Ospreylian]

My team:

1. Jenkins
2. Baldwin
3. Lee
4. Charteris
5. Ball
6. Lydiate
7. Tipuric
8. Moriarty

9. Davies
10. Biggar
11. M Morgan/ Cuthbert
12. Roberts
13. North
14. Walker (if available) / Cuthbert
15. Hook (if called upon)

Bench: Owens, Jarvis, Francis, AWJ, Warburton, L Williams, Priestland, T.Morgan/Cuthbert/Anscombe

AWJ and Warburton should be left on the bench to keep them safe for Australia, likewise Faletau who I wouldn't even risk in my 23 (I see him as one of Wales' most crucial players). Tipuric to start to take care of the breakdown work and hopefully disrupt Fiji's rucks, whilst Moriarty provides the extra ball carrying that is lost when playing Tips over Warbs.

Lee in for Francis for extra stability in the scrum - I think if Wales can give a more solid effort in both scrum and line out on thursday than they did on the weekend Wales will win.

Davies and Biggar keep their places, would rather not have any more disruption in the back line than necessary. Would also rather not play Cuthbert, but if Walker cannot return he may well have to. Although Matthew Morgan is not the biggest guy, he is the sort of player that could open up the Fijian defence. Problem is he hasn't played much on the wing lately as far as I'm aware, but I would obviously put him on the left wing so as to avoid facing up against Nadolo (if Nadolo makes it through his disciplinary that is). I would shift North to centre and hope he can defend a little better there than in the past, but I thought when he made the switch against England he made an impact and became involved in attacking play a lot more frequently than usual.

At this point I think it would be a great call to finally bring in Hook to cover fullback, I would trust him in defence there more than I would Priestland at this stage in the tournament, and he provides a bit of extra attacking flair and unpredictability. Also, obviously another kicking option when Wales decide to play the territorial game.

 

[wayevs]

My team:

1. Jenkins
2. Baldwin
3. Lee
4. Charteris
5. Ball
6. Lydiate
7. Tipuric
8. Moriarty

9. Davies
10. Biggar
11. M Morgan/ Cuthbert
12. Roberts
13. North
14. Walker (if available) / Cuthbert
15. Hook (if called upon)

Bench: Owens, Jarvis, Francis, AWJ, Warburton, L Williams, Priestland, T.Morgan/Cuthbert/Anscombe

AWJ and Warburton should be left on the bench to keep them safe for Australia, likewise Faletau who I wouldn't even risk in my 23 (I see him as one of Wales' most crucial players). Tipuric to start to take care of the breakdown work and hopefully disrupt Fiji's rucks, whilst Moriarty provides the extra ball carrying that is lost when playing Tips over Warbs.

Lee in for Francis for extra stability in the scrum - I think if Wales can give a more solid effort in both scrum and line out on thursday than they did on the weekend Wales will win.

Davies and Biggar keep their places, would rather not have any more disruption in the back line than necessary. Would also rather not play Cuthbert, but if Walker cannot return he may well have to. Although Matthew Morgan is not the biggest guy, he is the sort of player that could open up the Fijian defence. Problem is he hasn't played much on the wing lately as far as I'm aware, but I would obviously put him on the left wing so as to avoid facing up against Nadolo (if Nadolo makes it through his disciplinary that is). I would shift North to centre and hope he can defend a little better there than in the past, but I thought when he made the switch against England he made an impact and became involved in attacking play a lot more frequently than usual.

At this point I think it would be a great call to finally bring in Hook to cover fullback, I would trust him in defence there more than I would Priestland at this stage in the tournament, and he provides a bit of extra attacking flair and unpredictability. Also, obviously another kicking option when Wales decide to play the territorial game.

Suppose there are 2 ways to look at this , do we take a balanced approach with Australia in mind and rest key players or do we go all guns blazing first team go for the big win and bonus point and hope England lose to Australia, my worry is if we rest key players like faletau , awj, Warburton that Fiji will take advanage of the young inexperienced players coming in. I think we need to approach this game like a final tbh

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Wales have to go all out here really, their pack will have the fitness to play and they should really target the breakdown. Warburton, Tipiric and Faletau would be the backrow I'd start with Biggar at 10, considering you're almost at the stage where your outside backs will be the quality of a top school's 2nd XV you should play the strongest team possible with a long rest before Australia.

 

[RedruthRFC]

How the bookies have us as favourites to win the group I have know idea, its going to be hard enough raising a side for Thursday, I suspect the smart money will be on Oz winning the group and Fiji on the handicap this Thursday.
Bizarrely odds checker has Wales and Oz 15/8 joint fav to win the group, but Oz at 3rd fav to qualify from the group very strange.

There must be arbs left right and centre if you can be bothered to sniff them out. I've just said in another thread that I believe that the markets have been slow to react. The pessimist in me is probably polarising my view and maybe the bookies are weighing in factors that I haven't consider, but William Hill still have England as favourites to top the pool (with Oz and Wales joint second at 15/8)! The list of things that need to happen in order for this to happen (Australia and Wales results going the right way and a lack of bonus points) is long enough that I can't see this being right. Other markets seem at odds with each other and my head hurts when I try to think things through to figure out why! I think I can follow their logic (even if I don't agree with it) in some cases though!

Edit: I agree with your two picks.

 

[ncurd]

Suppose there are 2 ways to look at this , do we take a balanced approach with Australia in mind and rest key players or do we go all guns blazing first team go for the big win and bonus point and hope England lose to Australia, my worry is if we rest key players like faletau , awj, Warburton that Fiji will take advanage of the young inexperienced players coming in. I think we need to approach this game like a final tbh

Lets put it this way, win and there are scenario's where a loss against Aus will still see you through even if England beat them. A loss against Fiji and you will probably have to beat Aus to qualify (there's even an odd one where a defeat by Fiji could lead to even an Aus win not being good enough but that's extremely unlikely).

You NEED to win this game.