I don't think I'm underestimating South Africa when I say we will probably put 20 on them. Watching them in the RC I just can't see the tactics they have used troubling us at all. They are our one true rival and I know the players will be respecting what they bring. If they play well and things go their then South Africa can definitely beat us but that's the same for any team. I don't think thinking we will easy is underestimating the 'Boks. It is more of a realistic appraisal of their form this year.
Perhaps it was bit inaccurate of me to suggest the
everyone is writing the Boks off. It just seems that many people (particularly in the NZ media) don't seem to think that he Boks have
any chance of winning, which I don't agree with. If the Boks play like they have thus far in the Rugby Championship it is probably fair to suggest they have little or no chance, but I feel the Boks are capable of showing so much more. In many ways I agree that the AB's should win pretty comfortably (I'm picking by 10-15 points), but I wouldn't be shocked if it was a lot closer (and/or the Boks won).
There seems to a perception that the Boks can't win with their current game-plan, which I don't necessarily agree with. I'm not suggesting that they have a great game-plan or anything, I just don't think we can know how successful their game-plan is until they execute it correctly. I only saw parts of the Argentina matches, but the execution of the game-plan against Australia was poor (I initially forgot the 'r' in poor, which would also sum up the execution of their game-plan). Looking through their side I feel South Africa have the potential to be so much better than we have seen thus far. They do have some obvious weaknesses in my opinion, but they have some serious strengths too (if they work out how to take advantage of these strengths!).
The key things I'm hoping for from the AB's this match:
- Another solid performance from Crockett, and another 20 minute cameo from Moody
- Luatua to play a tighter game than usual, allowing Read to roam in the wider channels
- Cruden to take on the line, with runners coming off his shoulder. This will draw de Villiers in a bit closer on defense, decrease the risk of an intercept, and open some more space out wide.
- Ben Smith to get a bit more involved in the match, either from coming in at first receiver or running off the outside shoulder of Cruden/Nonu in the midfield.
In many ways I feel the AB's need to continue doing what the have been doing the last few matches. They need to focus on physically matching the Boks up front, and look for space in behind the Boks defensive line. They may be tempted to go wide, but their is always the risk of the intercept.
Hopefully the weather is ok. Can't wait for the match to start!
