[2014 EOYT] Scotland vs New Zealand

[Shaggy]

I don't think Scotland will be easy beats or just lay down, that's for sure. Vern Cotter at the helm, he's no idiot. And looking at Scotland's 6 nations results: Giving France a good run at home, England putting 20 points on them (i thought it'd be more). At home it seems like they can hold their own and are very respectable. Maybe still some troubles with playing away? Anyway, some tinkering needs to be done: for injuries, and for preparing for the World Cup.

My team:

1) Crockett
2) Coles
3) Moody
4) Tuipolotou
5) Whitelock
6) Messam
7) Cane
8) Kaino
9) A. Smith
10) Carter
11) Savea
12) SBW
13) Crotty
14) Piutau
15) B. Smith

I guess it's debateable. I'd like to see a match where neither McCaw or Read are playing. That's a possibility in next year's world cup, not having either of them (let's not even think about it!). I would have liked to have started Faumuina but word has it he's off shortly, so if he's gonna bugger off then why bother. Dagg and Cruden had forgetable matches last week. But I wouldn't mind the selectors continuing to give SBW game time. I think the selectors will make some of the changes I've picked, but in other areas they may differ. Carter to return? Hopefully.

You'd start moody at tight head? ... I'd expect that they will start Faumuina, as, I don't think he's due to leave until after the RWC anyway. It sounds like Romano might be going to start at lock, and I think that they might go with Crotty at 12, and Fekitoa at 13 (with SBW on the bench). I agree that Carter should start, but I was reading that Cane was suffering back spasms, so they might have to start Messam at 7 if they want to rest Ritchie (maybe they'll go for McCaw, and have Messam on the blind, and Vito at 8)

... anyway, should be a good match as the Scots should be confident after that win over Argentina ... both teams are talking about playing a running game, so it should be good to watch

 

[Darwin]

It will be very interesting to see what the ABs selectors do. Hansen gave the impression that this tour would be treated as a dry-run for the RWC, with an (easy) final pool match (USA), followed by 3 knockout matches (though I'm not quite sure how Scotland made the semis ). If he is true to his word you would expect the ABs to put out the strongest combination possible. That would suggest limited changes to the starting lineup - perhaps Tuipulotu replacing Retallick, and Crotty replacing C Smith, though we may see Carter back (either starting or on the bench) and perhaps Romano given a chance off the bench.

Who knows what Hansen and co. have planned though....

 

[Mikel92]

At least if they give Ben Smith a start at fullback then we'll know the last line of defense will be tighter. There are plenty of aspects to Dagg's game which I love, but tackling has never been one. Yup, it'll be interesting for sure. Selfishly, I think this game will (other than beating Scotland), be about how certain players develop/return. SBW and Carter especially.

Edit: In terms of Smith vs Dagg, last week Dagg ran the most meters with the ball, had a try assist, and passed and ran with the ball the most times in the team. Smith made more clean breaks, beat more defenders and made slightly more tackles than Dagg. Both players missed at least one tackle, bot neither player conceded any penalties.

 

[nickdnz]

At least if they give Ben Smith a start at fullback then we'll know the last line of defense will be tighter. There are plenty of aspects to Dagg's game which I love, but tackling has never been one. Yup, it'll be interesting for sure. Selfishly, I think this game will (other than beating Scotland), be about how certain players develop/return. SBW and Carter especially.

Edit: In terms of Smith vs Dagg, last week Dagg ran the most meters with the ball, had a try assist, and passed and ran with the ball the most times in the team. Smith made more clean breaks, beat more defenders and made slightly more tackles than Dagg. Both players missed at least one tackle, bot neither player conceded any penalties.

Fullbacks generally make the most metres seeing as they get the most space and time with the ball on attack. The problem with Dagg is that he runs 20m back to the opposition, gets to the D line, does a little goose step and either gets tackled behind the retreating players of his own team, or throws a flat, speculative hospital pass (which he did again this match). He just puts players under more pressure than he's worth. He has played every minute of every game in the last three games. In that time he has been asked to make 8 tackles (so just over two a match), and has missed two of them. The tackles he has made have been when he's been drawn in closer to the ruck - but when he's the last line of the defense asked to make covering tackles he invariably misses. He wasn't horrible against the USA...but it was the USA...

 

[Mikel92]

Also worth just mentioning that yeah, Dagg missed that tackle on May. But May should never have been allowed to get through Conrad and Ben. CS struggled in that game, as acknowledged by Hansen.

 

[nzlizard]

I just want SBW and Fekitoa in the midfield.

Perfect game to test the combo.

 

[nickdnz]

Also worth just mentioning that yeah, Dagg missed that tackle on May. But May should never have been allowed to get through Conrad and Ben. CS struggled in that game, as acknowledged by Hansen.

In an ideal world players should not ever be able to break the defensive line. Doesn't mean the fullback doesn't have to be effective at tackling as the last line of defense - and he simply never is.

 

[Mikel92]

Kind of a double standard though. Conrad Smith should have tackled him, as should have Dagg. A fullback should be a reliable tackler, completely agree. But that doesn't give other players on the park a free pass. By the same token, May should not be allowed to waltz through B and C Smith like they're nothing. Both of them are better than that.

 

[nickdnz]

Kind of a double standard though. Conrad Smith should have tackled him, as should have Dagg. A fullback should be a reliable tackler, completely agree. But that doesn't give other players on the park a free pass. By the same token, May should not be allowed to waltz through B and C Smith like they're nothing. Both of them are better than that.

Yep, and if Conrad Smith (who was the man marking May) wasn't tackling at 91% over the last two games, he'd be given as much schtick as Dagg. As it is Dagg tackled at only 63% during the Rugby Championship and only at 75% over the last three games (which keeping in mind he's only being asked to make maybe three tackles per game...). In Super Rugby 2015 season he averaged 2.1 tackles per game and was still tackling at less than 80%!!! And this is Super Rugby. No one is saying Dagg is bad because he missed the tackle on May. People are saying he is bad because he misses tackles so regularly, particularly when he is the last line of defense, that I don't know who would have predicted he had any shot of making that tackle.

 

[Mikel92]

He definitely needs to brush up on that area. But to sweep his attributes and strengths under the carpet is a bit misleading. Anyway, Ben Smith is the man, but they've tried him at 15. Don't get me wrong, I'd have him in the team. But it would be on the wing.

We can't really excuse Conrad's failure by "other good stuff" he does, but ignore the "other good stuff" Dagg does. And while tackling is hugely important, if that's the only indicator we're looking at for a good fullback then we aren't analysing the stats very well.

 

[nickdnz]

He definitely needs to brush up on that area. But to sweep his attributes and strengths under the carpet is a bit misleading. Anyway, Ben Smith is the man, but they've tried him at 15. Don't get me wrong, I'd have him in the team. But it would be on the wing.

We can't really excuse Conrad's failure by "other good stuff" he does, but ignore the "other good stuff" Dagg does. And while tackling is hugely important, if that's the only indicator we're looking at for a good fullback then we aren't analysing the stats very well.

Ben Smith is a much better fullback than Dagg on current form. Every player is expected to miss a tackle, no one tackles at 100% and Conrad Smith misread the D line. The difference is that centre is a more difficult position to defend from and he's still tackling at 90% - making more tackles in the last two games - than Dagg made over the last 12 months of internationals!

The other stuff Dagg does really isn't all that impressive either. He has a big kick. That's it. He is otherwise remarkably predictable when running the ball, and puts the team continually under pressure. In 2010 I'd say 'you have a point' - but over the last two years he is just a liability.

 

[Darwin]

He definitely needs to brush up on that area. But to sweep his attributes and strengths under the carpet is a bit misleading. Anyway, Ben Smith is the man, but they've tried him at 15. Don't get me wrong, I'd have him in the team. But it would be on the wing.

We can't really excuse Conrad's failure by "other good stuff" he does, but ignore the "other good stuff" Dagg does. And while tackling is hugely important, if that's the only indicator we're looking at for a good fullback then we aren't analysing the stats very well.

You are correct that the ABs have tried Ben Smith at 15. He was absolutely phenomenal in 3/4 games he played (he was quiet - like every other player - but accurate during the draw vs Australia in the rain). During his time at fullback he proved (a) he is a much better fullback than Dagg, and (b) he is far more effective at fullback than on the wing. Because he is a quality player he can still make an impact on the wing, but he is at a completely different level in the 15 Jersey...

 

[Big Ewis]

I don't expect too much from Scotland although I'd love to see them experience something like what Ireland did last year at this season, but I don't see it being another 20-50 like last time. What I saw from Scotland last weekend was a team with more vitality, more order and a better ability to exploit their momentum and take their opportunities. The 10 play was much better, and the goal kicking went well too. Those are the intrinsic positives, but the relative side of things is Argentina practically didn't show up and many of those points came off too easy chances the Pumas gave the home side.

For the AB, I insist last week was a fine performance. People expect the AB to dominate everybody all the time everywhere, eh wait a second, England put up a big performance themselves. You could see the AB fine play in the works every so often but England just countered with efficiency. So the AB are on form, as usual, and still have the best attack and defense in the world.

It'll be a very tough game to prepare for Cotter as there aren't many angles Scotland can play on or have an advantage in. The game plan will be difficult to establish but based on what they've shown last week Scotland have something to build off of.

Provided the lineups are virtually the same for both sides as last week, I'll go with NZ by 20. Yes, "only". Right now (things can change during the week) I'm thinking something like 13-36.

 

[Shaggy]

Ben Smith is a much better fullback than Dagg on current form. Every player is expected to miss a tackle, no one tackles at 100% and Conrad Smith misread the D line. The difference is that centre is a more difficult position to defend from and he's still tackling at 90% - making more tackles in the last two games - than Dagg made over the last 12 months of internationals!

The other stuff Dagg does really isn't all that impressive either. He has a big kick. That's it. He is otherwise remarkably predictable when running the ball, and puts the team continually under pressure. In 2010 I'd say 'you have a point' - but over the last two years he is just a liability.

... Well, he's pretty good under the high ball, and also, chasing those kicks too ... that big boot of his has got the ABs out of trouble quite a few times, particularly as Carter hasn't been around to do it

If we take what "Shag" Hansen has to say, at face value (that he's treating these tour games like the RWC), then we could see Ben Smith or Piutau start at Full back to simulate absences due to injuries

 

[Kapa O Pango]

Scots by 10 points.

 

[Jaguares]

Scots by 50

 

[Mikel92]

In 2010 I'd say 'you have a point' - but over the last two years he is just a liability.

I'll give you that. 2010/2011 form from Dagg was definitely his best. He does have other qualities than "just a big boot" but yes, he hasn't shown them in awhile. Or, I think it'd be more fair to say he's been inconsistent with it. Hansen isn't an idiot. If all the guy did was smartly kick leather on a ball then he wouldn't be in the team at all. I know questioning Smith is blasphemy though

I will go for a margin of 30 to the All Blacks. 20 if Scotland make it an annoying game for us with good defence. I don't see any real threats in reality, although the Scots back three are looking classy. We'll need to watch Hogg and Seymour. Cotter will have made inroads with that area. Just hoping that Carter gets a start and goes well really.

 

[Jaguares]

I'll give you that. 2010/2011 form from Dagg was definitely his best. He does have other qualities than "just a big boot" but yes, he hasn't shown them in awhile. Or, I think it'd be more fair to say he's been inconsistent with it. Hansen isn't an idiot. If all the guy did was smartly kick leather on a ball then he wouldn't be in the team at all.

At that time Zac Guildford was also at his best and everybody thought the black jerseys #11 and #15 would have owners for looooong time.

Then their performances decreased (Especially Zac) and Julian & Ben Smith made their appearances

 

[Guilty]

This one is going to get ugly, NZ to reach 50 points in a route.

 

[Mikel92]

Not that it's surprising one little bit, but reports/articles are that Carter is very likely to start. Also watch out for Mealamu and Thrush. Team to be named this afternoon.

Henry Pyrgos is out with injury for Scotland. Edinburgh scrum-half Sam Hidalgo-Clyne has been called into the squad.