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While personally I wouldn't pick Coltman I wouldn't completely rule him out. I'm not really sure that Coltman 'tanked' in the ITM Cup - he certainly had a couple of bad lineout throwing performances, but his lineout throwing was no worse than it has been in the past (when the ABs selectors have shown some interest in him).
Behind Coles and Mealamu the hooker is an incredibly open position. Harris certainly has his nose in front to be the 3rd choice hooker, but how the hookers are rated below that are anyones guess. I would add Ben Funnell and Quentin MacDonald to your list of potential hooking options - the ABs selectors have shown interest in Matu'u in the past too but he is injured.
Personally I would go for..... ummmm.... maybe Dixon...
I like Quentin MacDonald, but given he wasn't selected for the Maoris he must either be injured or well down in the pecking order.
Given the replacement hooker is unlikely to get much/any game time it would probably make sense to include one of the guys already in Japan or Europe. The selectors have spent time with Coltman, Harris and Marshall, it would be worthwhile getting a look at Dixon (a player who is at least likely to be starting for his Super team next season, something that can't be said for Marshall, Coltman, Parsons and MacDonald (plus neither Funnell not Taylor are likely to be starting consistently).