Samoa shouldn't pose any significant threat to England. They've been having problems of their own. Sometimes off field issues can either galvanize a team of players or weigh heavily on their mind, and I've seen the former happen many times with coaching disputes, deaths, injuries, administrative issues, etc. But England seem to have put out a side who can get the job done. Having Farrell away from the main play maker jersey should be a good thing, even though he is still in the team.
Yeah it's performance that matters. But cohesion usually leads to points and solid results, so I think getting a few tries up on the board will do the English players a lot of good with confidence. The Wallabies game is one England should really be targeting, so I don't think 2 losses and a near-miss to Samoa will help the mind set. I think Conrad's prediction would be about right, possibly by a bit more.