2012 New Zealand Squads

[bobbilycious]

An interesting bit of Psychology trivia, it's almost impossible for the two of those conditions to coexist, as one is caused by a lack of Dopamine being manufactured in the brain and the other is caused by an excess of it.

I think think the more recent theories on Schizophrenia are that positive symptoms (hallucinations, delusions etc.) are caused by too much dopamine activity while negative symptoms (slowing down of speech, loss of hunger, loss of pleasure) are caused by too little dopamine activity.

 

[UilamOsa]

An interesting bit of Psychology trivia, it's almost impossible for the two of those conditions to coexist, as one is caused by a lack of Dopamine being manufactured in the brain and the other is caused by an excess of it.

Now I know.

That's a good thing then. It's going to join the queue of other real/imagined horrors/insults in my mind.

 

[Larksea]

Luamanu is kinda interesting. Good player no doubt but he doesn't look fit enough for week in week out super rugby to me. I think the telling factor was how his impact kinda dropped off towards the end of the ITM cup.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

the TAB odd's for NZ conference winner

what do people think? a little surprised the chiefs are rated so much higher than us, might have to put a sneaky hundie on us with those odds

also, the chiefs have the same odds as the buls to win the whole thing, starting to think i've missed something

 

[Darwin]

View attachment 1524

the TAB odd's for NZ conference winner

what do people think? a little surprised the chiefs are rated so much higher than us, might have to put a sneaky hundie on us with those odds

also, the chiefs have the same odds as the buls to win the whole thing, starting to think i've missed something

Yeah the odds are interesting. When they opened (about a week ago) the Highlanders were the least favourite among the NZ sides (paying around $16), but it looks like there has been quite a bit of money put on them already. Personally I don't think we will end up higher than either the Blues or the Crusaders on the table, but I would have thought we would have had a good chance of being ahead of the Chiefs.

The Chiefs look like they will have a very potent attacking backline (at least until Kahui gets injured in week 2 ), but I'm still not convinced they have the tight-five to compete with some of the top teams (certainly plenty of potential there, but they are probably a year or two away). I also think they are lacking a bit in their outside backs: Nanai-Williams and Masaga are freakish attacking talents, but can be found out in defense, Nemani & O'Donnell have yet to play Super Rugby, and for all his talent Robbie Robinson has a habit of cracking when any pressure is placed on him (and his defense is hopeless too). I really like the potential of the Chiefs team, but I think they are a year or two away from being a genuine ***le contender.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

yeah, pretty much agree with that

I think the chiefs have had a real change of the guard where as i would see we have built on last years team. in the long run (even later in the 2012 season) they could really fire but i can help but think they will need time to settle in. I'm hoping we come out like we did last year.

I would hope we will be pushing harder for second next year with the chiefs overtaking the canes

 

[Darwin]

yeah, pretty much agree with that

I think the chiefs have had a real change of the guard where as i would see we have built on last years team. in the long run (even later in the 2012 season) they could really fire but i can help but think they will need time to settle in. I'm hoping we come out like we did last year.

I would hope we will be pushing harder for second next year with the chiefs overtaking the canes

I expect the Highlanders will be improved this year - indeed I think we will really be pushing for a playoff spot. However I actually expect the Blues to be an improved team too this year too: they basically have the same core of forwards that have been improving each season, and with Weepu at 10 (assuming he plays there), they actually have someone who can control the game for a change. Before Toeava was injured last season the Blues were very close to the top side in the competition, and I expect they will be near the top again this season.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

I expect the Highlanders will be improved this year - indeed I think we will really be pushing for a playoff spot. However I actually expect the Blues to be an improved team too this year too: they basically have the same core of forwards that have been improving each season, and with Weepu at 10 (assuming he plays there), they actually have someone who can control the game for a change. Before Toeava was injured last season the Blues were very close to the top side in the competition, and I expect they will be near the top again this season.

agreed, its annoying the first time we have had a couple of years of improvement (on paper) and the teams above us have improved too!

 

[Larksea]

in all honesty looking at the squads on paper I think the only NZ teams that have a realistic chance of winning are the Crusaders and Blues. Though the blues winning very much depends on how Anscombe goes at 10. IF the blues can protect him so he doesn't have to do so much defending and allow him to pick and choose when he wants to run they will be right up there with the crusaders.

Crusaders have a huge amount of talent again and will be major contenders for the ***le even without the services of McCaw and Carter for a lot of the season.

I expect the chiefs to do well but again this year I dont see an top class lock or an experienced top class prop in the pack so their tight 5 is going to come under pressure again. I really think to be a serious super contender you need some top test tight forwards. Blues have like 4 top test tight forwards (woodcock, Mealamu, Williams, Boric) chiefs have 0.

I really want to see Toby Smith come on this season. I'm picking him to be a future all black (looked like a future all black to me from his first ITM cup game) and I think a smart All Black coach should select him in 2012 to build him up for the next world cup. Toby Smith has got much the same traits of the franks brothers with the added fact he's one of the best ball carrier props around (franks bro's don't carry the ball much). Chiefs have talented guys like smith but no experienced proven test level players in the tight 5 and I think they will miss that.

What the chiefs do have is a brilliant loose forward trio. Messam at 6, Waldrum at 7 and Lee at 8 will be one of if not the best back row in the comp again, backup from Latimer and Cane means they have got lots of depth as well.

I also think Renee's coaching could improve this area even further.

To me the chiefs do lack balance in the back three, Masanga, Nanai and Robinson are all quite similar in stature (fairly small) for balance I'd only want one or two at the most of these guys on the field at the same time. Nanai and Robinson have question marks over their defense. I honestly think I would have picked Tim Mikkelson in the squad to be the main option at 15. Very tall, solid player.

 

[Dizzy]

in all honesty looking at the squads on paper I think the only NZ teams that have a realistic chance of winning are the Crusaders and Blues. Though the blues winning very much depends on how Anscombe goes at 10. IF the blues can protect him so he doesn't have to do so much defending and allow him to pick and choose when he wants to run they will be right up there with the crusaders.

Crusaders have a huge amount of talent again and will be major contenders for the ***le even without the services of McCaw and Carter for a lot of the season.

I expect the chiefs to do well but again this year I dont see an top class lock or an experienced top class prop in the pack so their tight 5 is going to come under pressure again. I really think to be a serious super contender you need some top test tight forwards. Blues have like 4 top test tight forwards (woodcock, Mealamu, Williams, Boric) chiefs have 0.

I really want to see Toby Smith come on this season. I'm picking him to be a future all black (looked like a future all black to me from his first ITM cup game) and I think a smart All Black coach should select him in 2012 to build him up for the next world cup. Toby Smith has got much the same traits of the franks brothers with the added fact he's one of the best ball carrier props around (franks bro's don't carry the ball much). Chiefs have talented guys like smith but no experienced proven test level players in the tight 5 and I think they will miss that.

What the chiefs do have is a brilliant loose forward trio. Messam at 6, Waldrum at 7 and Lee at 8 will be one of if not the best back row in the comp again, backup from Latimer and Cane means they have got lots of depth as well.

I also think Renee's coaching could improve this area even further.

To me the chiefs do lack balance in the back three, Masanga, Nanai and Robinson are all quite similar in stature (fairly small) for balance I'd only want one or two at the most of these guys on the field at the same time. Nanai and Robinson have question marks over their defense. I honestly think I would have picked Tim Mikkelson in the squad to be the main option at 15. Very tall, solid player.

I take it you don't rate Hika Elliot or Sona Taumalolo then. I'd say both of these men are proven test players. With a greater motivation and coaching from Rennie and Smith, these guys can only improve. Elliot is awesome with ball in hand and Taumalolo is probably THEE best option to have in your squad for someone you want to score driving try for the line

I think the Chiefs could have the most dangerous backline this year with Cruden, SBW, Kahui, Masaga, O'Donnell and Nanai-Williams. The point you're trying to make with Nanai-Williams being small is a disadvantage isn't a very strong one. We all know Christian Cullen wasn't big and he is arguably the best Fullback ever. All a Fullback needs to be is dangerous on counter-attack, have good cover defense and be able to boot the ball back down field and Nanai-Williams is very strong in two of those departments, he will need to work on cover defense however...

 

[Larksea]

I take it you don't rate Hika Elliot or Sona Taumalolo then. I'd say both of these men are proven test players. With a greater motivation and coaching from Rennie and Smith, these guys can only improve. Elliot is awesome with ball in hand and Taumalolo is probably THEE best option to have in your squad for someone you want to score driving try for the line

I think the Chiefs could have the most dangerous backline this year with Cruden, SBW, Kahui, Masaga, O'Donnell and Nanai-Williams. The point you're trying to make with Nanai-Williams being small is a disadvantage isn't a very strong one. We all know Christian Cullen wasn't big and he is arguably the best Fullback ever. All a Fullback needs to be is dangerous on counter-attack, have good cover defense and be able to boot the ball back down field and Nanai-Williams is very strong in two of those departments, he will need to work on cover defense however...

I do rate Hika Elliot but he's not an experienced top level player, he only has a handful of test matches and he's had to share the #2 jersey at super level with Mega. I rate him more than Flynn but Flynn has a ton more experience than Elliot (which is why he won WC squad selection as 3rd hooker)

Honestly no I don't rate Taumalolo. Over the last couple years I'd say he was the weakest scrummager in the chiefs squad and he has a habit of dropping the ball at crucial times that has really hurt. At best he's good off the bench now and then but I don't expect him to be good enough to hold up one side of the scrum for the season like a franks brother, an Afoa or woodcock or Crockett or Mackintosh do for their teams - he's not in that league IMO.

I never said being small was a disadvantage, actually small guys are important and add balance - an element that I think it's important for a team to have.

But you can have TOO MUCH of it. The backline already has Cruden at 10 and Surely Masanga on the wing to be the small nippy guys in the backline. Robinson and Nanai as well would be just too much. Would leave just two average or bigger guys in the backline (Kaks and SBW).

 

[ranger]

Probably the reason Nemani got a spot. Hes a powerful dude

 

[nickdnz]

I think think the more recent theories on Schizophrenia are that positive symptoms (hallucinations, delusions etc.) are caused by too much dopamine activity while negative symptoms (slowing down of speech, loss of hunger, loss of pleasure) are caused by too little dopamine activity.

Wouldn't make much sense, as both usually coexist at the same time with negative symptoms kicking in before hand. You often can have both positive and negative symptoms in abundance, especially with disorganised and catatonic schizophrenia. It's a lot harder to treat the negative symptoms.

 

[james5000]

But you can have TOO MUCH of it. The backline already has Cruden at 10 and Surely Masanga on the wing to be the small nippy guys in the backline. Robinson and Nanai as well would be just too much. Would leave just two average or bigger guys in the backline (Kaks and SBW).

Masaga is about 95kg which is hardly small, Kahui and SBW are 100kg+ which is definitely above average, add O'Donnell (95kg) or Nemani (100kg+)on the wing and you have you have one of the biggest midfield+wing combo's in the competition.

Chiefs aren't really lacking size in the back's

 

[Larksea]

Masaga is about 95kg which is hardly small, Kahui and SBW are 100kg+ which is definitely above average, add O'Donnell (95kg) or Nemani (100kg+)on the wing and you have you have one of the biggest midfield+wing combo's in the competition.

Chiefs aren't really lacking size in the back's

cmon man do I need to draw a picture?

Compared to Joe Blogs on the street Masanga is a solid dude but on a super15 rugby field he is on the small side, height in particular. Though he does punch above his weight.

If O'Donnell & Nemani are on the field it doesn't really matter if Robinson, Masanga and Nanai are small does it because at most only one of them is going to be on the field...

Look big picture.

Imagine a Backline with Cruden, Robinson, Masanga and Nanai-williams or even three of those 4. None are over 6ft or 100kg - to me it lacks size and opposition forwards will have a lot of targets to run at.

 

[Muzzy]

I would probably have agreed a wee bit with that analysis a couple of years ago (I never thought he should have been picked for the AB's initially), but in his last two seasons with the Blues he was a much improved player. He bulked up a bit, and even appeared to have gotten faster (whether he did or not I don't know) - during the 2009 and 2010 Blues seasons he was a real threat with ball in hand. He was the Blues back of the season in 2009, and his 2010 form had him very close to an AB's recall. I don't know why you would suggest he 'hardly scores an tries regardless of how much gametime he gets" - he has scored 19 trys in 42 games for the Blues (0.45 tries per game) which is pretty impressive. That is a better try scoring ratio than either of the other main Blues wings in recent years (Ranger = 0.44 tries/game, Rokocoko = 0.40 tries per game). Wulf try scoring ratio at ITM Cup level is not as impressive, but to be fair not many Harbour backs score tries (incidentally Matt Luamanu's try scoring record for North Harbour is phenomenal: 17 tries in 22 games!).

Ranger has only had 3 seasons with the blues and was only a main starter for his last two, look at his try scoring ratio for those two seasons, and Rokocoko has had some poor seasons with the Blues too, I guess we just have to wait and see

 

[james5000]

cmon man do I need to draw a picture?

Compared to Joe Blogs on the street Masanga is a solid dude but on a super15 rugby field he is on the small side, height in particular. Though he does punch above his weight.

If O'Donnell & Nemani are on the field it doesn't really matter if Robinson, Masanga and Nanai are small does it because at most only one of them is going to be on the field...

Look big picture.

Imagine a Backline with Cruden, Robinson, Masanga and Nanai-williams or even three of those 4. None are over 6ft or 100kg - to me it lacks size and opposition forwards will have a lot of targets to run at.

lol really 95kg small? I bet the majority of wings at the world cup were less than 95kg, 95kg would put Masaga on the larger side of average in that particular position.
Every team has targets to run at, size isn't necessarily the determining factor though. Its usually the position on the field.

I can't see many forwards targeting running at the wings and fullback, it doesn't really happen often. (They might target them, but they will most likely never get an opportunity to do it)

The chiefs won't be disadvantaged having a smaller fullback in actuality it might be a bonus because it might give them variety in their attack.

 

[Darwin]

Ranger has only had 3 seasons with the blues and was only a main starter for his last two, look at his try scoring ratio for those two seasons, and Rokocoko has had some poor seasons with the Blues too, I guess we just have to wait and see

The fact Rokocoko has had some poor seasons for the Blues (to go with a number of very strong seasons) doesn't change the fact that Rudi Wulf has a very impressive try scoring rate for the Blues

I only listed Blues players as an example, as this was probably the fairest comparison. However if you want to take all current NZ Super Rugby wings into account who have over 20 starts, and look at the ratio of tries/start (rather than tries/game) you find the following:

Maitland - 0.63
Ranger - 0.57
Wulf - 0.56
Masaga - 0.53
Guildford - 0.48
Rokocoko (gone now) - 0.44
Gear - 0.41
Poki - 0.24

What do these stats show us? They show that Rudi Wulf is far from someone who "hardly scores any tries regardless of how much game time he gets" - indeed his try scoring rate is more impressive than the majority of NZ Super Rugby wings! Anyways I'm sure we will see how he goes when the season starts - assuming he stays fit I'd say he will be very close to the top scorer in the Blues this season.

lol really 95kg small? I bet the majority of wings at the world cup were less than 95kg, 95kg would put Masaga on the larger side of average in that particular position.
Every team has targets to run at, size isn't necessarily the determining factor though. Its usually the position on the field.

I can't see many forwards targeting running at the wings and fullback, it doesn't really happen often. (They might target them, but they will most likely never get an opportunity to do it)

The chiefs won't be disadvantaged having a smaller fullback in actuality it might be a bonus because it might give them variety in their attack.

The Chiefs won't be disadvantaged simply because both of their fullback options are small. They will, however, be disadvantaged because both of their fullback options are very poor defenders, which to some degree (clearly not all) is related to their (lack-of) size. In addition, though Masaga is an improved defender he is still very hit and miss defensively - he can pull off some big hits, but often follows this up by missing simple 1-on-1 tackles. The Chiefs back three certainly looks like it will potent on attack, but it does look like it will be a bit weak on defense (though I think O'Donnell looks like a very good defensive player).

 

[james5000]

To a point size has got absolutely nothing to do with defence, especially when you weigh in the region of 90kg. If you weigh 85kg-90kg, you should be able to tackle any one, Nanai-Williams and Robinson must be in this category.

I actually don't think Nanai-Williams is that bad on D. Might have to wait till next year to really see how good he is. He hasn't been bad at all when I have watched him.

I can't wait to see Rudi play next year, I think his ratio's might shrink a little bit myself. According to blues website he has 18 tries in 43 games, which is a ratio of slightly under 0.42, which is lower than the 0.45 (19/42) ratio you have previously stated. (http://www.theblues.co.nz/Players/130-Rudi-Wulf.aspx).
(Don't know which is more accurate, but both are still good ratio's.)

I honestly think Piri will be average at 10 next year, and I think it may ruin him. He will become a utility player and he will not be starting 9 for the AB's next year.
IMO its a silly career decision to make, he had just claimed the number 9 position as his own and now is going to throw it away.

NZ div my guess

Crusaders
Blues
Chiefs
Highlanders
Hurricanes

I think Hurricanes will play better than people are giving them credit for but will still come last. I am guessing that the table will be very even, with not many points separating the bottom 3 positions.

 

[Darwin]

To a point size has got absolutely nothing to do with defence, especially when you weigh in the region of 90kg. If you weigh 85kg-90kg, you should be able to tackle any one, Nanai-Williams and Robinson must be in this category.

I actually don't think Nanai-Williams is that bad on D. Might have to wait till next year to really see how good he is. He hasn't been bad at all when I have watched him.

Nanai-Williams has shown some signs of improving defensively, but he is still a weak defender IMO. For him it is more defensive positioning than anything else - for someone who is so agile he seems to get himself caught 'flat-footed' on defense far too often. It is certainly something that can be corrected, but at this stage I still think it is a weakness that he needs to work on. He's certainly a better defender than Robinson, whose combination of poor defensive positioning plus an inability to tackle even when players run straight at him make him a shockingly poor defender!