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2011 RWC - Any bolters for the All Blacks and Who will miss out?
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Darwin
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I agree - if you were picking 5 loosies for the RWC Thomson would be a must on current form. Assuming Thomson keeps up his outstanding form all season there are four certainties - Kaino, Thomson, McCaw, and Read - with the likes of Todd, Daniel Braid, Vito, Messem et al. all competing for one spot.
Thompson is in good form but it's early in the season and the selection battles for key postions will go down to the wire. Also need to consider that out of Messam, Vito & Thompson - Messam has vastly more experience at 8 than the other two which is critical. I dont think we can have a WC squad with only 1 guy who is a regular #8 If anything right now I'd have thompson over braid and keep Messam to cover 8.
Most of the squad is pretty much set I'd say, apart from
who is going to backup Carter?
maybe Two Lose forward spots for Messam, Vito, Thompson & Braid to fill.
Who are the other midfielders going to be? Smith, Nonu and two others?
Who are the wingers going to be? Jane, Rokocoko, Gear?
Props? Woody & Owen franks +2
Locks - Alot of viable options...
3rd hooker?
3rd halfback?
Possible squad:
Props: Woody, O Franks, Mackintosh, Afoa
Hookers: Mealamu, Hore, Elliot
Locks: Thorn, Williams, Boric, Whitelock
Loosies: McCaw, Read, Kaino, Messam, Thompson/Braid
9's: Weepu, Cowan (Elis, Mathewson, Leonard)
10: Carter (Slade, Donald, Cruden)
Misfield: Smith, Nonu, kahui, Williams
Wings: Jane, Rokocoko
Fullback: Mills, Dagg
Utility: Toeava
16/14 split, kahui, Dagg & Toeava can cover wing so only two needed.
I dont think Fruen will be selected this year with so many good experienced options. If there is a major injury in the top mid fielders look for Tana to answer the SOS
If mackintosh continues this form and Crockett Keeps ben Franks on the bench he should get a recall. A Bolter at prop for me could be Toby Smith.
I think signs are good so far that Ali Williams is on track to regain his spot and that Boric is continuing his great form from the EOY tour and that 2011 is not a year too far for Brad Thorn.
The last spots in the loosies, halfback and 10 will come down to who is in the best form at the sharp end of the season. IMO likely a shootout between Slade & Donald for 10. All the "next best 9's" look in good early season form. Also keep an eye on MacAlister who was impressive in a start at 10 for the blues, played like the Luke of old - he could quite easily keep Brett at bay if he keeps that form up.
I dont like Andy Elis and I dont think he does the AB's backline justice, he's too slow to clear the ball, the ball ends up spending too much time with him and not in the hands of the other backs who can do a lot more with it. For the simple fact they clear the ball so much faster I'd rather have Mathewson & Leonard than Cowan or Elis who are so much slower.
Obviously injuries will dictate as well, it will be hard to imagine come WC time all the top 15 players being fit and ready there are sure to be a couple out... Not a good start for slade but it could work out well for him in the long run, same for Cruden who's season basically hasn't started yet either because the canes have had two weeks off.
Wing is goign to be interesting, it may come down to only two spots in the squad because the likes of Kahui, dagg & Nonu can cover wing.
Jane is pretty much an automatic selection
gear had an awesome EOY tour
Rokocoko looks to be in awesome early season form
Sivivatu is back from injury and though he's not at his best or at full fitness he is as always causing defencive lines a lot of trouble and scored two trys already.
hate to say it but I think injuries may dictate what wingers get selected. I see Gear is in a sling already and Sivivatu hasn't had a good year or so with injuries.
Lastly I hope Weepu comes back well from injury, I think he's critical to the AB's success
Most of the squad is pretty much set I'd say, apart from
who is going to backup Carter?
maybe Two Lose forward spots for Messam, Vito, Thompson & Braid to fill.
Who are the other midfielders going to be? Smith, Nonu and two others?
Who are the wingers going to be? Jane, Rokocoko, Gear?
Props? Woody & Owen franks +2
Locks - Alot of viable options...
3rd hooker?
3rd halfback?
Possible squad:
Props: Woody, O Franks, Mackintosh, Afoa
Hookers: Mealamu, Hore, Elliot
Locks: Thorn, Williams, Boric, Whitelock
Loosies: McCaw, Read, Kaino, Messam, Thompson/Braid
9's: Weepu, Cowan (Elis, Mathewson, Leonard)
10: Carter (Slade, Donald, Cruden)
Misfield: Smith, Nonu, kahui, Williams
Wings: Jane, Rokocoko
Fullback: Mills, Dagg
Utility: Toeava
16/14 split, kahui, Dagg & Toeava can cover wing so only two needed.
I dont think Fruen will be selected this year with so many good experienced options. If there is a major injury in the top mid fielders look for Tana to answer the SOS
If mackintosh continues this form and Crockett Keeps ben Franks on the bench he should get a recall. A Bolter at prop for me could be Toby Smith.
I think signs are good so far that Ali Williams is on track to regain his spot and that Boric is continuing his great form from the EOY tour and that 2011 is not a year too far for Brad Thorn.
The last spots in the loosies, halfback and 10 will come down to who is in the best form at the sharp end of the season. IMO likely a shootout between Slade & Donald for 10. All the "next best 9's" look in good early season form. Also keep an eye on MacAlister who was impressive in a start at 10 for the blues, played like the Luke of old - he could quite easily keep Brett at bay if he keeps that form up.
I dont like Andy Elis and I dont think he does the AB's backline justice, he's too slow to clear the ball, the ball ends up spending too much time with him and not in the hands of the other backs who can do a lot more with it. For the simple fact they clear the ball so much faster I'd rather have Mathewson & Leonard than Cowan or Elis who are so much slower.
Obviously injuries will dictate as well, it will be hard to imagine come WC time all the top 15 players being fit and ready there are sure to be a couple out... Not a good start for slade but it could work out well for him in the long run, same for Cruden who's season basically hasn't started yet either because the canes have had two weeks off.
Wing is goign to be interesting, it may come down to only two spots in the squad because the likes of Kahui, dagg & Nonu can cover wing.
Jane is pretty much an automatic selection
gear had an awesome EOY tour
Rokocoko looks to be in awesome early season form
Sivivatu is back from injury and though he's not at his best or at full fitness he is as always causing defencive lines a lot of trouble and scored two trys already.
hate to say it but I think injuries may dictate what wingers get selected. I see Gear is in a sling already and Sivivatu hasn't had a good year or so with injuries.
Lastly I hope Weepu comes back well from injury, I think he's critical to the AB's success
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FlukeArtist
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My squad (for what its worth) In order of preference
Hookers:
Mealamu, Hore, Rutledge
Props:
O.Franks, Woodock, Afoa, B.Franks
Locks:
Thorn, Whitelock, Donelly (and hopefully) Williams
Loosies:
McCaw, Read, Kaino, Thomson, Vito, Braid/Todd
Halfbacks:
Weepu, Cowan, Matthewson
1st Fives:
Carter, Slade, McAlistair
Midfield:
Nonu, Smith, Fruen
Outside/Utility backs:
Muliaina, Dagg, Jane, Toeava, Ranger, Gear, ? SBWilliams
Hookers:
Mealamu, Hore, Rutledge
Props:
O.Franks, Woodock, Afoa, B.Franks
Locks:
Thorn, Whitelock, Donelly (and hopefully) Williams
Loosies:
McCaw, Read, Kaino, Thomson, Vito, Braid/Todd
Halfbacks:
Weepu, Cowan, Matthewson
1st Fives:
Carter, Slade, McAlistair
Midfield:
Nonu, Smith, Fruen
Outside/Utility backs:
Muliaina, Dagg, Jane, Toeava, Ranger, Gear, ? SBWilliams
187
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You should write a blog mate.
I agree with the above. SBW is an automatic selection as well. I have a mate in the ABs coaching staff & he said they've already invested too much money in him to not select him. I hope Fruean somehow, some way cracks it. I love watching him play, straight no nonsense power.
For the loosies, Adam Thompson is putting his hand up. I prefer Vito over Messam but Messam has had more experience so may get the nod ahead of Vito.
I hope to see Gear there too as the 3rd winger, even if it's at the expense of Sivivatu.
And please please please don't select Cruden. He is so crap. Slade if fit should be there.
So much competition... Whatever the final squad, they'll definitely be capable of winning the RWC.
Cheers for the comment.
I think things would have to change drasticlly for Gear to lose his spot to Sivivatu. Gear made a big impact towards the end of last year and sivi has been out for a long time. Unless Sivi can regain his best form and Gear doesn't impress come the later rounds of super rugby. I think Gear's safe.
Fruen is a Tricky situation, a fit Conrad smith will be an automatic selection for the AB's and I struggle to imagine the selectors will be able to find room in a squad of just 30 for two players that only play 13. People like Luke McAlister & Richard Kahui have a big edge over Fruen in that department. McAlister can cover 10, 12, 13 and kick goals and Kahui can cover 11, 12, 13, 14 plus the coaches will also give weight to the fact Kahui is one of the rare players that shines at test level to the point where he's really never had a bad game for the AB's and performs well in big matches. Plus the coaches may not want to dubut a guy in world cup year.
Given that I can already see he may not get selected and a lot of people will get upset. But you never know, the way he is playing kind of demands selection. That tackle on AAC who just maybe Australia's best mid fielder was a huge statement and I'm sure pretty much everyone in NZ who saw that live on the tele got up out of their seat to applaud like I did.
Also as much as I dislike Andy Elis he is currently playing the best rugby of his carrier and would have to be the form 9 in NZ and maybe even the whole super14 right now. Though He's always done well behind that awesome crucaders pack my problem with his play is how long it takes him to get a ball from a ruck into the hands of the first 5 when he's wearing an all black jersey. For sure he's made the first move to secure his spot in the squad I just hope he improves that area too.
ranger
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In fairness to Fruean, he has played a whole lot of wing. It was his primary position until he moved to Canterbury, he could probably also fill an oldschool hard running 12 role inside Conrad if needs be. I think Kahuis a better option at this stage but versatility isn't a huge hurdle.
Here's my team, although I must admit I've changed it a hundred times during the Super 15, so will probably change another hundred times before August 22...
Props: Tony Woodcock, Ben Franks, Owen Franks, Neemia Tialata
Hookers: Kevin Mealamu, Andrew Hore, Hika Elliot
Locks: Brad Thorn, Sam Whitelock, Anthony Boric, Ali Williams
Loose Forwards: Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Kieren Read, Adam Thompson, Liam Messam
Halfbacks: Jimmie Cowan, Piri Weepu, Andy Ellis
Fly Halfs: Daniel Carter, Colin Slade
Centres: Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Sonny Bill Williams, Richard Kahui
Wingers: Sitivini Sivivatu, Isaia Toeava, Joe Rocokoco
Fullbacks: Mils Muliaina, Israel Dagg
Backups:
1. John Afoa
2. Corey Flynn
3. Jamie McIntosh
4. Chris Jack
5. Tom Donnelly
6. Jarred Hoeata
7. Matt Todd
8. Victor Vito
9. Leonard
10. Aaron Cruden
11. Hosea Gear
12. Luke McAllister
13. Robbie Fruen
14. Cory Jane
15. Ben Smith
I have a sense Tialata and Rocokoco will get in on experience, and Henry's loyalty. Gear may leap Rocks, but I still think Gear lacks coordination on pressure counter attack. Leonard may well steal 3rd halfback spot off Ellis. Hanson loves Donnelly, so he may leap Williams, but lacks rugby. Braid lacks rugby too. Cruden has fixed his kicking game so backs-up over Donald. McAllister/Ranger are STILL too erratic. Cory Jane? Hard luck story. Crockett unlucky too. Never liked Mathewson at half back, can't put my finger on why...
Props: Tony Woodcock, Ben Franks, Owen Franks, Neemia Tialata
Hookers: Kevin Mealamu, Andrew Hore, Hika Elliot
Locks: Brad Thorn, Sam Whitelock, Anthony Boric, Ali Williams
Loose Forwards: Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Kieren Read, Adam Thompson, Liam Messam
Halfbacks: Jimmie Cowan, Piri Weepu, Andy Ellis
Fly Halfs: Daniel Carter, Colin Slade
Centres: Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Sonny Bill Williams, Richard Kahui
Wingers: Sitivini Sivivatu, Isaia Toeava, Joe Rocokoco
Fullbacks: Mils Muliaina, Israel Dagg
Backups:
1. John Afoa
2. Corey Flynn
3. Jamie McIntosh
4. Chris Jack
5. Tom Donnelly
6. Jarred Hoeata
7. Matt Todd
8. Victor Vito
9. Leonard
10. Aaron Cruden
11. Hosea Gear
12. Luke McAllister
13. Robbie Fruen
14. Cory Jane
15. Ben Smith
I have a sense Tialata and Rocokoco will get in on experience, and Henry's loyalty. Gear may leap Rocks, but I still think Gear lacks coordination on pressure counter attack. Leonard may well steal 3rd halfback spot off Ellis. Hanson loves Donnelly, so he may leap Williams, but lacks rugby. Braid lacks rugby too. Cruden has fixed his kicking game so backs-up over Donald. McAllister/Ranger are STILL too erratic. Cory Jane? Hard luck story. Crockett unlucky too. Never liked Mathewson at half back, can't put my finger on why...
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A lot of people don't seem to understand what a bolter is... A bolter is a player that few, in any people expect to get into the team - usually someone who no one has noticed. Todd wouldn't be a bolter, neither would Smith. The last few true bolters we've seen (that I can recall) are Smith, when he was first selected, and Toeava and Eaton.
Darwin
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I'd agree with the vast majority of that squad. The only one I'm pretty sure won't make it (barring injury) is Tialata. Tialata was dropped last year as he lacked mobility, and he certainly hasn't made a compelling case for inclusion this Super Rugby season. I'd be very surprised if Afoa didn't make the squad, as he had quite a strong season for the AB's (largely off the bench) last season, and has had a good Super Rugby season. Apart from that, the forward pack you have listed is exactly the same one I think the selectors will pick.
I hope Slade will recover in time to be picked (and would pick him myself), but I suspect McAlister may have the inside running at this stage. I'm still very unsure about which outside backs they will take; I think Muliaina and Toeava are certainties, but I don't think any of the other three spots are secure at this stage. The way I see it up to 8 players (Rokocoko, Sivivatu, Guildford, Gear, Dagg, Smith, Ranger and Jane) are competing for these last three spots. If Sivivatu continues to show form I'd imagine he will take one of these though, as Henry and co. rate him very highly.
Ben Smith would be a bolter. With the wealth of outside backs that we have it would be shocking if ever made the All Blacks again. Besides, no one in this thread has actually named him in their squad. I don't think many New Zealanders really expect to see Todd in their either.
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The fact that so many people have noticed the two of them almost removes any bolter status.
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Smith in the squad, considering how well he's playing and how many of the players that fit a similar mould to him are out injured (Toeava, Dagg), or out of form (Jane). Todd I would be surprised, but not exceptionally so. I'd hardly say either of them came from out of nowhere to make the squad.
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I could name at least ten outside backs I would rather have in my squad than Ben Smith. Besides, excluding mine and your posts Ben Smith's name has only actually been mentioned three times in this thread. You might not be suprised to see him in there but I think I, and most New Zealanders, would be.
Fair call. For now, there is one "bolter" I would be genuinely excited about. He has big potential, and X factor. Charlie Faumuina. He's a monster who plays both sides, hits hard, and is very mobile/skillful for his size. To play like that against the Crusaders after such a long injury break, it's a matter of time to get in the ABs. Get him in now so him and O Franks can scare everyone in the tri-nations!!
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Ok name ten.
Have you noticed that there's only been one or two squads listed since mid March. Toeava and Dagg both got injured after that, likewise I'm sure most people assumed at the point they made their squads that Jane would've found some form in a couple of weeks, yet he obviously didn't. Smith came into form a few weeks into the season and he's been fantastic ever since. You're deluded if you think Smith won't be near (or in) the squad.
Mingothehobo
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I'm hoping that Jason Rutledge can make the team. He's been in great form in the last 12 months
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Anyone with Samoan heritage who hasn't got 1 cap for the AB's yet, because it would be terrible if Samoa could actually use their players.
Fishing much?
