Your Lions Squad Based on this Season?

[Ragey Erasmus]

Off to get my spade, need to dig that hatchet up.

But what if the spade is also buried?

 

[FrankfurtRugbyWatcher4]

Nobody in an England shirt would of scored more than 6/10 they were completely flat. We can't base squad selection and tactics based on South Africa playing at the top of their ability and an England team who were poor.
I actually think the two teams are fairly equal on paper.
I understand the petulance, whooping etc has got a lot of people to dislike Itoje. However he is clearly a world class player. I'm just Gatland is selecting the side...

Dear Lionsxv. It is my strong belief, if not a truism, that England could prevail, if that World Cup decider would be contested as an old style series of three or four games. South Africa played all their trump cards. And England did not turn up.

Different referees would be involved. South African ploys would be worked out. Same applies for the semifinal, of course (New Zealand might have reversed the result if given the opportunity.)

But the World Cup is knock-out rugby, a tournament. And that is why New Zealand stumbled so often. All that is known in advance. And each nation has got to deliver. On the day.

For 2019 it is clear that South Africa had saved the best for last. Have they held back something? How could a knackered Wales run them so close a week earlier?
And that team in the final sureley did not look like the often beaten sides who came to visit in the autumn series.

2021 will be quite a new deal – not just because The Beast won't be there any more.

 

[FrankfurtRugbyWatcher4]

I agree with most of this but I think it will be hard not to play into their hands if you use billy vunipola as a starting player. Thing is, South African forwards are big and fit, and used to playing at altitude. In my view your optimal style, utilising your best players, is one that takes advantage of fitness, on top of highly efficient, organised play. As soon as you compromise too much on fitness you take away from your strengths.

In saying that, I fully agree you need go forward. So, if you don't have tuilagi in form, you will probably want to start billy. Otherwise, go with Wilson or faletau.

it will be tough to get the balance right no doubt, as the boks pack are on average are bigger, stronger, and fitter. Northern hemisphere teams excel in their organisation. You won't match them in the tight, but you can match them in the loose, and with superior organisation and smarts you can beat them there.

@ Umanga's Witness on how to do it.

If vital ball carriers like Vunipola and Tuilagi could not be counted on. (My assumption is that Faletau and Parkes won't make it, Aki highly doubtful as well.)

There could also be a team oriented formula. Structured phase play binding the defence. Earning enough space for the great finischers out side. The clear line breaks could also come from somebody like Larmour or Hoggy in a two-on-two or three-on-three.

But it will be harder. "Warren-ball" in the build-up would not be feasible. Even if Vermeulen, then 34, would not be around any more to contest the collisions. South Africa will always come up with some big athletes like him.

Those contacts points would have to be further out. Using the rather mobile back row. (Cunderhill-Itoje or Itoje-Wilson-Curry to name but few.) With quick recycling akin to mastery of such skills at the level of the Kiwis.

There is plenty of talent in the player pool of the home countries. But Jordan Larmour is worthwhile mentioning. He progressed to be a game breaker at the 6Nations-level this year. And timing is on his side. A prominent role next year would set him up for a Lions career with three tours reminiscent of Ian Evans, Jerry Guscott, BOD, Martyn Johnson, Gethin Jenkins, Shane Williams, Paulie O'Connell, or possible four-peaters Leigh Halfpenney and Alun Wyn Jones.* And go on to celebrate his 31st birthday in New Zealand 2029.

A fair share of good possession from set piece and turnovers would do based on the above means to take the 2021 series 2-1 or 3-0 depending on the bounce of the ball. I can't wait.

*I expect one of the names in this list to be challenged (for accuracy.)

 

[FrankfurtRugbyWatcher4]

I agree with most of this but I think it will be hard not to play into their hands if you use billy vunipola as a starting player. Thing is, South African forwards are big and fit, and used to playing at altitude. In my view your optimal style, utilising your best players, is one that takes advantage of fitness, on top of highly efficient, organised play. As soon as you compromise too much on fitness you take away from your strengths.

In saying that, I fully agree you need go forward. So, if you don't have tuilagi in form, you will probably want to start billy. Otherwise, go with Wilson or faletau.

it will be tough to get the balance right no doubt, as the boks pack are on average are bigger, stronger, and fitter. Northern hemisphere teams excel in their organisation. You won't match them in the tight, but you can match them in the loose, and with superior organisation and smarts you can beat them there.

@ Umanga's Witness on how to do it.

If vital ball carriers like Vunipola and Tuilagi could not be counted on. (My assumption is that Faletau and Parkes won't make it, Aki highly doubtful as well.)

There could also be a team oriented formula. Structured phase play binding the defence. Earning enough space for the great finischers out side. The clear line breaks could also come from somebody like Larmour or Hoggy in a two-on-two or three-on-three.

But it will be harder. "Warren-ball" in the build-up would not be feasible. Even if Vermeulen, then 34, would not be around any more to contest the collisions. South Africa will always come up with some big athletes like him.

Those contact points would have to be further out. Using the rather mobile back row. (Cunderhill-Itoje or Itoje-Wilson-Curry to name but few.) With quick recycling akin to mastery of such skills of the Kiwis.

There is plenty of talent in the player pool of the home countries. But Jordan Larmour is worthwhile mentioning. He progressed to be a game breaker at the 6Nations-level this year. And timing is on his side. A prominent role next year would set him up for a Lions career making it on three tours reminiscent of Ian Evans, Jerry Guscott, BOD, Martyn Johnson, Gethin Jenkins, Shane Williams, Paulie O'Connell, or possible four-peaters Leigh Halfpenney and Alun Wyn Jones.* And go on to celebrate his 31st birthday in New Zealand 2029.

A fair share of good possession from set piece and turnovers would do based on the above means to take the 2021 series 2-1 or 3-0 depending on the bounce of the ball. I can't wait.

*I expect one of the names in this list to be challenged (for accuracy.)

 

[jesse murray]

Really not seeing why so many think Mako V is the ironed on starter at LH. If he is? The Boks will be grinning ear to ear. Mako coming on in last quarter in a tight game? Great but he is not the starter. If Lions are struggling in the scrum? They will get pumped.

 

[jesse murray]

Dear Lionsxv. It is my strong belief, if not a truism, that England could prevail, if that World Cup decider would be contested as an old style series of three or four games. South Africa played all their trump cards. And England did not turn up.

Different referees would be involved. South African ploys would be worked out. Same applies for the semifinal, of course (New Zealand might have reversed the result if given the opportunity.)

But the World Cup is knock-out rugby, a tournament. And that is why New Zealand stumbled so often. All that is known in advance. And each nation has got to deliver. On the day.

For 2019 it is clear that South Africa had saved the best for last. Have they held back something? How could a knackered Wales run them so close a week earlier?
And that team in the final sureley did not look like the often beaten sides who came to visit in the autumn series.

2021 will be quite a new deal – not just because The Beast won't be there any more.

In last 5 test matches between England & Boks? Boks won 3 and England 2. Those 2 wins? One was a dead rubber and other win came when Ref decided OF no arms shoulder special was just fine. Boks simply match up well with England. They more than match their physicality and that often leaves England struggling for answers. TBF 3 of those tests where in South Africa and only 1 in England.

 

[FrankfurtRugbyWatcher4]

You are right Jesse Murray, scrums do matter again. I am grateful for that, but more so are Springbock supporters.

Well, I admit, there are just two (unappealing) arguments in favour of Mako:

His strength as an industrious ball carrier. (Will he still be able to deliver that? Even if so, is that the right man against the Boks?)

And lack of competition. There is just not anybody else around for that position. Other then Sutherland, the new guy of Scotland. (Marler not.)

Evans has dissappeared. Ellis Genge? "Baby Rhino" is the man for the future, but not for South Africa I am afraid. Same for Rhys Carre.

Ian McGeeghan suggested Hepburn of Exeter as his choice for his team of the Heineken Cup. He's got that friendly against Japan under his belt. Not quite a rite of passage. He explicitly did not pick him for his scrummaging. Moon might be the safest, but uninspiring alternative.

So Mako Vunipola is the obvious choice as a starter. A lot on reputation.

Both arguments are of the wrong kind. This might be a position in which the Lions need to patch something over.

Any other objections?

 

[jesse murray]

So given the NH season is basically guaranteed over and most of us are sitting at home bored, figured it would be a good time to do this. I'm not trying to predict what Gatland will pick our what position players will be in next season but basing the squad on what we know now and presuming everyone is fully fit. Last two squads have had 37 and 41 players announced initially so keeping in that ballpark. Players aren't meant to be in any depth chart type order.

Loosehead: Vunipola, Healy, Genge - Some people will claim Healy hasn't been great, I disagree. Third loosehead could easily be a few other guys but I like Genge's physicality against SA, even if I am worried about his discipline.

Hooker: George, Owens, Kelleher - I'm a fan of McInally but I just feel there's something lacking there at the moment. If anyone can't tell I really rate Kelleher and I think he's good enough, even if he didn't get the chance to fully prove it yet.

Tighthead: Furlong, Sinckler, Fagerson, Porter - not particularly impressed by the Welsh tightheads, think these guys are all quite dynamic and abrasive. Porter's ability to play both sides would be very welcome on tour.

Locks: Ryan, Itoje, Kruis, Henderson, Lawes, Jones - AWJ making it in by the skin of his teeth, I actually rate him more than a lot of people on this forum but there's a load of talented locks lying about.

Backrow: T. Curry, Underhill, Stander, Doris, Vunipola, H. Watson, Navidi - If Leavy came back even 90% of the player he was he'd be in. Do worry it might be a bit light weight overall and do think there's room for a 'big' six, whether that comes in the form of someone who packs down at lock as well or not.

Scrumhalves: T Williams, G Davies, Webb - **** it.

Outhalf: Sexton, Farrell, Biggar, Russell - keep everyone except the Bath fans happy

Centre: Tuilagi, Ringrose, Henshaw, Tompkins - Feel like Tuilagi and Ringrose are relative standouts and there's a lot of guys of a similarish level so picked two that were doing good stuff recently and offer some versatility.

Backthree: A. Watson, May, Larmour, Hogg, Kinghorn, L. Williams, Conway - Tough choice on a few guys, There are good arguments for the likes of Stockdale and Daly. I am almost definitely overrating Kinghorn.

I have definitely forgotten people and not put enough though into this like I only just remembered Jack Conan and he could definitely be in.

Breakdown: 41 players, 14 English, 13 Irish, 9 Welsh, 5 Scottish

No idea who I'd pick as captain that's a guaranteed test started.

LH: Sutherland is easily in if we're judging on form. Mako was a liability v Boks in WC final. Yes he should be in squad but I see him coming off the bench. Outside of those 2? It is a bit of mess. Genge is way too inconsistent for me. Healy is ok.

Kelleher based on what? George, LCD and final spot is open for comp.

TH: fair enough, not totally sold on Fagerson but he has improved & had a good 6N.

Locks: no argument, maybe if someone gets hurt Cummins should get a look.

Backrow; Doris? He hasn't done anything at Test match level. I don't care that he has looked good on a loaded Leinster team, until he proves it in an Ireland shirt? He is nowhere near the Lions. I also fear Gatland will overlook Watson. I'd love to see Curry & Watson play together but probably not going to happen. Watson will be a midweeker.

9s: Price for me was best 9 of the 6N not named Dupont. He has also played extremely well for Glasgow. 9 is a serious mess. Cooney might end up the starter at this rate. The best potential 9 (very small sample size TBF) I've seen this past season? Jamie Dobie. A 19 year old at Glasgow and no knock on Dobie but that to me highlights how bereft of talent that position is right now.

10: Sexton? No mate, that England game ….ugly. Ford, Russell*, OF & Biggar. I'd love for Lions to go all in on Russell and play open/fast rugby. I know better. Russell will more than likely be the midweek 10. I can't get mad though because Gatland has the result to back up his choices.

Center: Tompkins based on good game v Italy and some moments v France? No. Ringrose ...if he can stay healthy, a big if. Henshaw was meh when he played. Sam Johnson has been better than both of them past 6N. Slade, OF, Manu T & JD if fit.

Back 3: Conway? He played well for his club and was just ok for Ireland. Jack Nowell would be a better shout. Stockdale until he dramatically improves the defensive side of his game should struggle to get in Ireland squad let alone the Lions. Daly is a good shout. Kinghorn btw was outstanding defensively all 6N. I like him a ton but he doesn't have searing pace needed to threaten on Wing. For me he is FB. If Williams, Hogg & Larmour are fit? No real need for Kinghorn unless he is utility type.



TH

You are right Jesse Murray, scrums do matter again. I am grateful for that, but more so are Springbock supporters.

Well, I admit, there are just two (unappealing) arguments in favour of Mako:

His strength as an industrious ball carrier. (Will he still be able to deliver that? Even if so, is that the right man against the Boks?)

And lack of competition. There is just not anybody else around for that position. Other then Sutherland, the new guy of Scotland. (Marler not.)

Evans has dissappeared. Ellis Genge? "Baby Rhino" is the man for the future, but not for South Africa I am afraid. Same for Rhys Carre.

Ian McGeeghan suggested Hepburn of Exeter as his choice for his team of the Heineken Cup. He's got that friendly against Japan under his belt. Not quite a rite of passage. He explicitly did not pick him for his scrummaging. Moon might be the safest, but uninspiring alternative.

So Mako Vunipola is the obvious choice as a starter. A lot on reputation.

Both arguments are of the wrong kind. This might be a position in which the Lions need to patch something over.

Any other objections?

The industrious ball carrier isn't that valid if Mako isn't gaining any meters or tying in extra defenders. That is the issue v the Boks, physicality gets nullified and other parts of Makos game get highlighted. With Boks? Everything starts at the set piece. If Lions get parity? They stand a far better chance than Mako carrying it 12 times for 5 meters into a brick wall. I'd rather put the best scrummager out there and have Makp come on with 20-25 mins left against tired legs.

Though valid point on lack of depth.

Maybe not as bad as 9 but a definite issue.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

@big ginger 8 You're a ******* idiot mate, rating Ireland players on consistent performances at Europe's top club? Nah, they only played the England game as far as I'm concerned.

Scotland players - if you're basing them off anything other than their best game ever for Glasgow A and adding 10% to their potential you're doing them a disservice.

 

[FrankfurtRugbyWatcher4]

LH: Sutherland is easily in if we're judging on form. Mako was a liability v Boks in WC final. Yes he should be in squad but I see him coming off the bench. Outside of those 2? It is a bit of mess. Genge is way too inconsistent for me. Healy is ok.

Kelleher based on what? George, LCD and final spot is open for comp.

TH: fair enough, not totally sold on Fagerson but he has improved & had a good 6N.

Locks: no argument, maybe if someone gets hurt Cummins should get a look.

Backrow; Doris? He hasn't done anything at Test match level. I don't care that he has looked good on a loaded Leinster team, until he proves it in an Ireland shirt? He is nowhere near the Lions. I also fear Gatland will overlook Watson. I'd love to see Curry & Watson play together but probably not going to happen. Watson will be a midweeker.

9s: Price for me was best 9 of the 6N not named Dupont. He has also played extremely well for Glasgow. 9 is a serious mess. Cooney might end up the starter at this rate. The best potential 9 (very small sample size TBF) I've seen this past season? Jamie Dobie. A 19 year old at Glasgow and no knock on Dobie but that to me highlights how bereft of talent that position is right now.

10: Sexton? No mate, that England game ….ugly. Ford, Russell*, OF & Biggar. I'd love for Lions to go all in on Russell and play open/fast rugby. I know better. Russell will more than likely be the midweek 10. I can't get mad though because Gatland has the result to back up his choices.

Center: Tompkins based on good game v Italy and some moments v France? No. Ringrose ...if he can stay healthy, a big if. Henshaw was meh when he played. Sam Johnson has been better than both of them past 6N. Slade, OF, Manu T & JD if fit.

Back 3: Conway? He played well for his club and was just ok for Ireland. Jack Nowell would be a better shout. Stockdale until he dramatically improves the defensive side of his game should struggle to get in Ireland squad let alone the Lions. Daly is a good shout. Kinghorn btw was outstanding defensively all 6N. I like him a ton but he doesn't have searing pace needed to threaten on Wing. For me he is FB. If Williams, Hogg & Larmour are fit? No real need for Kinghorn unless he is utility type.



TH



The industrious ball carrier isn't that valid if Mako isn't gaining any meters or tying in extra defenders. That is the issue v the Boks, physicality gets nullified and other parts of Makos game get highlighted. With Boks? Everything starts at the set piece. If Lions get parity? They stand a far better chance than Mako carrying it 12 times for 5 meters into a brick wall. I'd rather put the best scrummager out there and have Makp come on with 20-25 mins left against tired legs.

Though valid point on lack of depth.

Maybe not as bad as 9 but a definite issue.

Scotland's contribution.

And the discussion here:

There is one squad to be debated - how the Lions should be selected. And another one what Warren Gatland will select. Not the same thing at all.

The second question would put a shroud on something already not too visible.

So I always argued free of looking into Warren's mind. He is an amazing coach. He knows what a Lions tour takes. As he has been there and done it. Successfully. But some of his selections have been, well, peculiar.

The easiest tweak to make when going there however would be to discount the chance for all Scottish players.

Gatland iffy record in that respect would aggravate an already ambiguous situation.

As there are no clear cut cases. Besides Stuart Hogg. He might even captain the lot if AWJ rules himself out.

The next most probable contenders would be guys like Sutherland or Fagerson. Who are "solid." But not more.

This is due to lack of competition. The opposite, too much comp, is hanging over the prospects of very talented guys like Russell, Graham, Kinghorn, Price, Ritchie, Hastings, Duhan van der Merwe. And even Watson. As there might only be place for two of the foursome consisting of him, Tipuric, and Cunderhill. All absolute gemstones.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

The next most probable contenders would be guys like Sutherland or Fagerson. Who are "solid." But not more.

Strongly disagree with this. Sutherland's performance in the 6 Nations was the best performance by a loosehead over the course of an international series/tournament since Kitschoff vs England in 2018. If he can maintain that standard up until the tour then he's World Class, not just solid.

 

[General Melchett]

Strongly disagree with this. Sutherland's performance in the 6 Nations was the best performance by a loosehead over the course of an international series/tournament since Kitschoff vs England in 2018. If he can maintain that standard up until the tour then he's World Class, not just solid.

He's a top notch scrummager and his ability in the loose is also impressive. Check out this footwork and break. Not too shabby for a LH. Looks poor from Ford but conditions were terrible to be fair.

 

[FrankfurtRugbyWatcher4]

He's a top notch scrummager and his ability in the loose is also impressive. Check out this footwork and break. Not too shabby for a LH. Looks poor from Ford but conditions were terrible to be fair.

He's a top notch scrummager and his ability in the loose is also impressive. Check out this footwork and break. Not too shabby for a LH. Looks poor from Ford but conditions were terrible to be fair.

Thanks to you and TobyBestTeague. I was just about to look for something like that myself. As I always like to wellcome good news (especially the scrummaging.)

 

[FrankfurtRugbyWatcher4]

Strongly disagree with this. Sutherland's performance in the 6 Nations was the best performance by a loosehead over the course of an international series/tournament since Kitschoff vs England in 2018. If he can maintain that standard up until the tour then he's World Class, not just solid.

For everybody else there is something different weakening the case for Lions knighthood in 2021.

Lost form / competitiveness a bit: Johnson, McInally, Wilson

Or very much: erstwhile hotshot Huw Jones

Long in the tooth: Maitland (but he is from Hamilton like Warren, there you go, see above.)

Wrong profile: Ritchie Gray (too light)

Too far fetched: Skinner, Dell (a Saffer,) Taylor, Bradbury, Hutchinson

Residency requirement not yet fulfulled: Pierre Shoeman

Not enough international exposure yet: Cummins, George Horne, Bennet (after his comeback,) Haining.

If there would not be the benevolent case of Seymour in 2017, I would say the best chance of all those is to tour to Zim or Namibia. To be a front runner for a late call up. As geography might trump record in a Scotland jersey again. My squad of 38 would contain 7 Scotsmen (including George Horne for example.)

 

[FrankfurtRugbyWatcher4]

And also Sam Johnson. Although not in my shadow 1st XV any more. (That was probably all but clear when I stated those issues.)

 

[BPM]

Sutherland was by some distance the best loosehead in the 6N but there are plenty of players who have had a purple patch they haven't been able to sustain.

Until he's been able to maintain that form over a decent period of time I think it's very premature to even mention him and 'World Class' in the same sentence.

I'm in agreement with Mako being a weaker scrummager (although the word 'liability' is an overstatement IMO) who is probably better as an impact sub, so I think the starting 1 spot is up for grabs. I'm not sure Sutherland is that man though.

Along with Scrum Half, I have loosehead as the hardest position to pick.

 

[FrankfurtRugbyWatcher4]

That is an obvious conclusion. Hardest-to-pick positions scrum half and loose head have been discussed productively here (blind side flanker is only hard to pick as well in case a particularly big one is required.)

BUT:

Part of who should play for the Lions is also the question who should be nominated as captain. If Alun Wyn Jones should make it on a forth tour, this question is answered.

But since this can not be taken for granted at all, the question is actually wide open. It also might be required to name a replacement during the tour. Like Gareth Thomas 2005 or Peter O'Mahoney 2017.

There have been captainship appointments even for individuals who were not the captain of their respective national side. Martyn Johnson 1997 was a very successful example of that. (Ian McGeechan had that very vivid explanation about the sight of his frame in the tunnel stunning the opponent. Hilarious.)

But previous leadership experience is an obvious factor. That would be one strong indication for being of the appropriate personality. Being an undisputed choice in the starting line-up another vital one. There should not be a need to balance a lopsided composition of the squad by the captainship appointment. As selection should be very well spread over the home nations with the exception of Scotland. That seemed to be the consensus in this thread as well.

I am scratching my head.

 

[FrankfurtRugbyWatcher4]

I wan't ready to suggest a name myself. But it would be more than … for example a debate about the merits of Colin Farrell as captain. As I believe the group of contenders to be wider than just Hoggy and him (with Alun Wyn Jones and Johnnie Sexton are out of this contention, the way this is framed.) More contenders, as only two of the current four national captains will be realistic options (sorry Jonathan Sexton.) Interesting as well, as this involves thought on the leader of the next generation of Wales an Ireland.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

I wan't ready to suggest a name myself. But it would be more than … for example a debate about the merits of Colin Farrell as captain. As I believe the group of contenders to be wider than just Hoggy and him (with Alun Wyn Jones and Johnnie Sexton are out of this contention, the way this is framed.) More contenders, as only two of the current four national captains will be realistic options (sorry Jonathan Sexton.) Interesting as well, as this involves thought on the leader of the next generation of Wales an Ireland.

I'm not sure he's a real contender to be honest. Seems like a good enough bloke but he's never really been trusted with the lead role in big movies; usually filling more of a secondary role. Definitely wouldn't feel confident with him leading the Lions.

Edit: has he even played rugby?

 

[big ginger 8]

I'm not sure he's a real contender to be honest. Seems like a good enough bloke but he's never really been trusted with the lead role in big movies; usually filling more of a secondary role. Definitely wouldn't feel confident with him leading the Lions.

Edit: has he even played rugby?

But when he has bee trusted you can get something amazing like In Bruges.

He briefly attended a school that has rugby as its main sport so it's certainly possible.