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Why I think Australia, New Zealand or South Africa won't win.

Rhyer

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I'm sorry if this is in the wrong place as I'm a new poster. I am French and of course support France and English is my second language so please excuse poor grammar and spelling errors.

I think that players will be too tired come the world cup and will sadly not be competitive enough but saddens be greatly. With this extending Super 15 and Tri-Nations to come players will be too tired compared to NH players who have had a break from now until August. This is just my opinion but wondered other peoples thoughts?

I am not biased to who wins come September but only want for a competitive competition which I'm now unsure about and think is an unfair advantage to teams like France and England and feel whoever wins this will not be a representative conclusion on who is the best.

Thank you for reading and please provide your opinion please.
 
None of this seems to have hindered the SH teams in the past...
 
None of this seems to have hindered the SH teams in the past...

But this year is 5 weeks more of Super rugby! This is a huge difference. Super rugby looks very intense that not many could play in.
 
Well I'm still pretty sure that the people who are going to be picked for those three nations can handle it, but I guess we'll see :p
 
Let me try to wash away the 'too tired' idea. I will use South Africa as an example, since we had 2 finalists in the Super14 that year and went on to win the World Cup.

In 2007, we had a Super 14 season. Every team played 13 matches at the highest level. Afterwards, we got the Spring Tour, which for South Africa included 2 matches against England and 1 against Samoa. This started 1 week after the Super14 final!

A week after we played Samoa, we started the Tri Nations (4 matches) which ended the 14th of July. This was 4 weeks after the start. In between there was 1 free weekend.

After a month we played 3 warm-up matches (Namibia, Cannacht and Scotland). 2 weeks after that, the World Cup started.

This all comes down to:

13 Super Rugby regular season
2 Super Rugby play offs
3 friendly
4 Tri Nations
3 Warm up matches


This comes down to 25 matches in 6 months, having only 3 weeks rest in all (considering they played every match).


Now 2011:

We started out in February and at the end of July. If they again play everything, this comes down to 16 matches (18 rounds and 2 byes for every team). This ends the 9th of July. 2 weeks later, the Tri Nations starts, lasting 5 weeks, having 1 week rest in between. The Tri Nations ends 27th of August, World Cup starting 2 weeks later.


To sum up:

16 Super Rugby regular season
3 Super Rugby play offs
4 Tri Nations

This comes down to 23 matches, with 4 weeks rest before the final pre-RWC match (considering they play everything)


 
Has to be said, we got rid of the Spring Tour and warm-up matches this year, but seeing we have Super Rugby till July, we don't need those warm-up matches. I wish they would start in January, to leave some space for Spring Tours, since that is too much part of Rugby history to get rid of
 
Call me old fashioned, but I think luck will be the key element for the winner of the RWC. You can have the best n°10 but if he misses that last kick, or if you have the fastest winger but he doesn't receive any good pass. Well you will most likely not win .

This year the super rugby season did provide some good rugby. The 'bigger' teams who got beaten by the 'smaller' teams. So I'm curious to see who will get selected and who will start.
 
Why I think Australia, New Zealand or South Africa won't win?


because you are crazy ... :p
 
I can see that player fatigue has been a factor in the Super XV this season, for some players, but hopefully the scheduled rests will keep the players fresh ... the number of injuries has been of more concern to me, but I see many of the injured players are returning from injury already, or are due back soon.

... Hopefully they will return and play to their full potential
 
I am curious to see how many first-choice players were out due to injuries in 2007 with the SANZAR teams. I know Pierre Spies missed out on the World Cup for SA and Jean de Villers & BJ Botha got injured during the RWC.
 
I am curious to see how many first-choice players were out due to injuries in 2007 with the SANZAR teams. I know Pierre Spies missed out on the World Cup for SA and Jean de Villers & BJ Botha got injured during the RWC.

... I've tried to purge most of 2007 from my memory :D ... but I think NZ had a bit of an injury crisis at lock ... there's probably no more injuries this year, compared with pre-world cup, 2007

I guess my concern is players going into the tournament carrying injuries, or the likelihood of injuries re-occuring
 
From the quarter finals, it's a lottery. To win the RWC, you need to be lucky 3 times in a row or play the game of your life 3 times in a row. We will see what happens
 
From the quarter finals, it's a lottery. To win the RWC, you need to be lucky 3 times in a row or play the game of your life 3 times in a row. We will see what happens

I'm hoping luck won't have much to do with it ... but indeed ... we shall see :)
 
i have another prediction.. a sanzar team will win the world cup.. crazy? i just hope we all make the semis and then only new zealands left in the final.. south african style could shut us out or australian determination could too. Allblacks by five vs the bok in the final!
 
All Blacks and Springboks will never meet in the final. If both SA and NZ win their group, they will meet in the semi's
 
The tri-nations teams are stronger at home then anywhere else. Anytime of the year they are reasonably very good but in the SH, they are a force.
 

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