The Ukraine War thread

[Yulia]

@Ragey Erasmus will you yourself go to Ukraine? Just a genuine question

 

[McTallshort]

You forget that it's not only 1.5mln active and 2mln reserve resources. It's also around 31mln of mobilisation resource that doesn't take part in the war with Ukraine and kept for the worse scenario.Not to mention that it's also the largest nuclear arsenal (as well as a good system of its delivery). Putin's strategy is to show that he can win this war cheap and with small resources, by sending mostly "consumables" like prisoners, foreign contractors,new contractors from poor regions etc without any serious motivation

Ok Yulia that's Russia's paper army which given what we have seen in the last 3 years is probably untrue.

I would be shocked if it had anywhere near as many active and reserve forces as is stated, if they did they wouldn't be asking North Korea for extra troops. Also if they tried to mobilise 31 million men the lights would absolutely go out in Russia and the economy would completely collapse. Russia is already at close to full employment and has a terrible demographic. The reason it's sending consumables as you put it is because it has no choice. If it does even a partial mobilisation it would cripple the economy even more and push inflation up even higher. It's not fighting it on the cheap. You don't spend 30% of your GDP on a cheap war.

 

[Yulia]

Ok Yulia that's Russia's paper army which given what we have seen in the last 3 years is probably untrue.

I would be shocked if it had anywhere near as many active and reserve forces as is stated, if they did they wouldn't be asking North Korea for extra troops. Also if they tried to mobilise 31 million men the lights would absolutely go out in Russia and the economy would completely collapse. Russia is already at close to full employment and has a terrible demographic. The reason it's sending consumables as you put it is because it has no choice. If it does even a partial mobilisation it would cripple the economy even more and push inflation up even higher. It's not fighting it on the cheap. You don't spend 30% of your GDP on a cheap war.

I have a different view (and took official numbers) but ok. Do you really think it's better to send your troops to Ukraine now? I just can't believe you really do
P.S. I wrote "consumables" in quote marks because that's how Putin treat these people, rather from his point of view not mine (I know it sounds terrible)

 

[AlRums]

Fact Check: Did Europe spend more on Russian oil and gas than Ukraine aid?

President Donald Trump made the claim during his address to Congress.

www.newsweek.com

This highlights the issues in relying on a nation like Russia for your energy though
More money being given to Russia for oil and gas than it is giving in aid to Ukraine. Seems like that makes zero sense and is actually harmful to Ukraine in the end. You (collectively) are funding both sides and actually funding Russia more, then saying we need to keep funding Ukraine. How about stop the flow of money to Russia that they can use to finance the war?

There's very little real fact in there along with the source cited

Although not easy to check oil imports/exports the "financial aid" figure was easy to check.

Although it was wrong cera, (Newsweek's source) only took into account cash aid. It left out military and humanitarian aid.

How about some facts:

February 24, 2025, marks the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Looking back, it becomes clear that Western donor countries have provided a continuous flow of aid to Ukraine, almost following a linear trend. In total, approximately EUR 267 billion in aid has been allocated to Ukraine over the past three years, amounting to more than EUR 80 billion per year. Of the total around EUR 130 billion (49 percent) were allocated in military assistance, EUR 118 billion (44 percent) in financial support, and EUR 19 billion (7 percent) in humanitarian aid.

Source:

Ukraine support after 3 years of war: Aid flows remain low but steady - Shift towards weapons procurement

Over the past 3 years of war, donor countries have provided a low but continuous flow of support to Ukraine, with a value of about EUR 80 billion per year. European donors have been the main source of aid to Ukraine since 2022, especially when it comes to financial and humanitarian aid. At the...

www.ifw-kiel.de

 

[AlRums]

@Ragey Erasmus will you yourself go to Ukraine? Just a genuine question

You can't really ask that given that you've already stated you don't want any of your adopted involved.

 

[Yulia]

You can't really ask that given that you've already stated you don't want any of your adopted involved.

I can, because I don't say that others should go there.
And I would like to say one more time: word "consumables" was used only in quote marks to explain the way of thinking (and treating of these people) of another person. I respect our Slavic men very much (as well as I respect men in general)

 

[Saintjay]

Would be interesting to estimate what Russia could really deploy into Ukraine realistically including reservists with a full mobilisation . With some figures estimating Russia recruited apx 200k-250k recruits last year. This included prisoners. Putin's official figures were nearly double that.

Not that I think Putin could survive a full mobilisation politically

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

@Ragey Erasmus will you yourself go to Ukraine? Just a genuine question

If there was a mass mobilisation, yes. However the whole "you can't advocate something unless you do it personally" is a weak and lazy argument. I am firmly of the belief that firefighters should fight fires, I don't have to do that myself to hold that position. I also think police should arrest criminals and face the potential dangers associated with that, I don't need to do that myself to advocate that.

 

[McTallshort]

I have a different view (and took official numbers) but ok. Do you really think it's better to send your troops to Ukraine now? I just can't believe you really do
P.S. I wrote "consumables" in quote marks because that's how Putin treat these people, rather from his point of view not mine (I know it sounds terrible)

The word consumables is the reality of Putin's thinking as is was with Stalin.

I'm not in regards troops right now as there is no truce or peace agreement and given how America is behaving I doubt it will be an option anyway.

 

[Amiga500]

If Ukraine had as yet unused American weapons that did not require American input to use... and said weapons could reach far inside Russia.

Should they use them as such? (Clearly breaking previous agreements.)

Clearly the Trump administration will never actually aid Ukraine again. So should Ukraine worry about providing them a further flimsy excuse?
Or does this mean any future admin team would never have same trust in Ukraine again? Short term gains long term pain?

 

[Flankers' paradise]

Putin literally can't afford to pull out of Ukraine. not just for political capital, but because so much of Russia's economy is supporting the war that it would collapse if he had to end things. The economy is already in such a mess that he not long ago had to restructure the amount of support given to injured vets etc because the current rates were unaffordable. Putin is burning through working-class, working-age men so fast that he's getting towards the point of there not being enough left to fill the required positions in industries. Not to mention the number of people incarcerated for anti-war protests and who left the country to avoid being mobilised. Lots of 'light industry' such as garment production has relocated while about 50k businesses went bankrupt in 2024. Russian GDP growth predications have fallen to about 1%. Even a lot of surviving businesses are straddled with debt. Man of the smaller businesses managed to turn a small profit thanks to Instagram however since this was banned they have disappeared.

 

[McTallshort]

If Ukraine had as yet unused American weapons that did not require American input to use... and said weapons could reach far inside Russia.

Should they use them as such? (Clearly breaking previous agreements.)

Clearly the Trump administration will never actually aid Ukraine again. So should Ukraine worry about providing them a further flimsy excuse?
Or does this mean any future admin team would never have same trust in Ukraine again? Short term gains long term pain?

Problem is there is no longer the American intelligence assets to target them.

 

[Sour Patch Kid]

If there was a mass mobilisation, yes. However the whole "you can't advocate something unless you do it personally" is a weak and lazy argument. I am firmly of the belief that firefighters should fight fires, I don't have to do that myself to hold that position. I also think police should arrest criminals and face the potential dangers associated with that, I don't need to do that myself to advocate that.

The "If there was a mass mobilization" is a pretty weak and cowardly argument. Easy to sit back and suggest others put themselves in harm's way when you have no intention of doing it yourself. Why do you need mass mobilization? Ukraine accepts individual foreign volunteers.

 

[Sour Patch Kid]

There's very little real fact in there along with the source cited

Although not easy to check oil imports/exports the "financial aid" figure was easy to check.

Although it was wrong cera, (Newsweek's source) only took into account cash aid. It left out military and humanitarian aid.

How about some facts:

February 24, 2025, marks the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Looking back, it becomes clear that Western donor countries have provided a continuous flow of aid to Ukraine, almost following a linear trend. In total, approximately EUR 267 billion in aid has been allocated to Ukraine over the past three years, amounting to more than EUR 80 billion per year. Of the total around EUR 130 billion (49 percent) were allocated in military assistance, EUR 118 billion (44 percent) in financial support, and EUR 19 billion (7 percent) in humanitarian aid.

Source:

Ukraine support after 3 years of war: Aid flows remain low but steady - Shift towards weapons procurement

Over the past 3 years of war, donor countries have provided a low but continuous flow of support to Ukraine, with a value of about EUR 80 billion per year. European donors have been the main source of aid to Ukraine since 2022, especially when it comes to financial and humanitarian aid. At the...

www.ifw-kiel.de

Regardless of the details of the article, isn't giving ANY money to Russia by Europe counter-productive to funding Ukraine? No matter how much money is involved? That is my bigger point

 

[TommiG88]

The "If there was a mass mobilization" is a pretty weak and cowardly argument. Easy to sit back and suggest others put themselves in harm's way when you have no intention of doing it yourself. Why do you need mass mobilization? Ukraine accepts individual foreign volunteers.

Yeah @Ragey Erasmus . Prove a point and head out there now…..

 

[McTallshort]

Bad news from the front line. The Ukrainians in Kursk have been cut in half by a Korean offensive. It's almost like they knew just where to strike...

 

[McTallshort]

The "If there was a mass mobilization" is a pretty weak and cowardly argument. Easy to sit back and suggest others put themselves in harm's way when you have no intention of doing it yourself. Why do you need mass mobilization? Ukraine accepts individual foreign volunteers.

Yes and many have been from the US. Obviously care more about democracy than others

 

[Sour Patch Kid]

Yes and many have been from the US. Obviously care more about democracy than others

Not sure what your point is here? Easy to call for war or troops to be deployed when you are not the one to put yourself in harms way. Just like firefighters and police officers, easy to sit at home in a recliner on your phone and dissect their actions over minutes where there is zero risk to you when they have to react in seconds and their lives are potentially at stake

 

[Saintjay]

Thank God for free speech. Rightly everyone can have an opinion and voice it. Even if it's right or wrong. With certain boundaries.

Monday morning quarter backing is a thing probably as old as time.

 

[TommiG88]

Not sure what your point is here? Easy to call for war or troops to be deployed when you are not the one to put yourself in harms way. Just like firefighters and police officers, easy to sit at home in a recliner on your phone and dissect their actions over minutes where there is zero risk to you when they have to react in seconds and their lives are potentially at stake

Would you defend a policeman for shooting someone they deemed a criminal if in truth they were no threat?