The Rugby Championship preview: South Africa

[TRF_Ezequiel]

2011 record: Played 4, won 1, lost 3 (3rd​ overall)
​

South Africa started the re-building phase earlier this year with a new coach and some new young prospects in the squad. Winning the Rugby Championship might not be the first priority for most people in South Africa because there is a bigger picture. After a disappointing World Cup last year, where they lost to Australia in the quarter finals, Peter de Villiers was replaced by former Bulls coach Heyneke Meyer. The first task was to get through the 3-Test Series with England back in June and the team managed with 2 wins, and a draw in the 3rd test. The strength of this Springbok team is definitely in the forward-department where Bismarck du Plessis is the starting hooker after years of waiting, and in the back-row there are some tireless guys who have the speed of wingers and the strength of locks. The question will be if the backline gets a chance to shine. If the backs get the ball, things can really go well for the Springboks.


New players to watch:

A lot of experienced players retired from Bok-duty and the Springbok fans will have to rely on some very talented youngsters to replace veterans like Fourie du Preez, Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha. For the scrumhalf position, the coach has the posibility to choose between Francois Hougaard, the speedy running man, and Jano Vermaak who is the second choice at club-level behind Hougaard. Vermaak is a bit older but has never played in the Green and Gold before. In the back-row there are long-term injuries to Schalk Burger and Juan Smith who are both regular starters when fit. Marcell Coetzee is one of the revelations of the season and he played all 3 tests against England and showed he is a serious option for either blindside or openside flanker. Another area where we saw debutants against England 2 months ago was the lock-positions. Eben Etzebeth is a strong young lock who towers the line-out, while Juandre Kruger is a bit older but after returning from 2 seasons with Nortmpton in England he was pairing with young Eben in all 3 tests, and proved to be a valuable option to replace Matfield.

In the backline we have seen some young talents getting their chances as well. Patrick Lambie, who is considered by most to be a flyhalf, seems to be pushed to the fullback berth, where he has to compete with Zane Kirchner while the fly-half position is still occupied by Morne Steyn. Johan Goosen seems to hold the best cards to compete with the Bulls kicker, but he is injured at the moment but a name to remember because he will be a Springbok very soon.


Key players:

Bismarck du Plessis has finally been given what he deserved years ago already, the no. 2 shirt for the Boks. He is regarded by many to be the best hooker in the world and some even say he is the most complete forward in world rugby, being able to play the fetcher-role and run with the ball in hand as well. On his left, there is only one option. Tendai BEAST Mtawarira broke his arm earlier this year but returned after his injury stronger than ever. After making his mark against the B&I Lions in '09, he is now a very dangerous opponent in many ways. Andries Bekker is a player who was in the same spot as Bismarck du Plessis for many years. Having to deal with Victor Matfield being ahead of him in the picking order for the lock-position, the tall Stormers man had to wait for his chance. He has suffered lately from injuries, but he returned in time to be part of the team at the start of the Rugby Championship, bringing some experience to the pack.

Ruan Pienaar, who has been very dominant in Europe while playing for Ulster, is a very reliable utility-back who can play scrumhalf, flyhalf and fullback. Pienaar was voted Magners League player of the Year in 2011 and was nominated for ERC player of the year in 2012. He brings a lot of experience into the squad. The centers are both pretty obvious choices. Francois Steyn returned from Racing Metro to play for the Sharks in Durban again and he was one of the enforcers on attack against England. When he missed the 3rd test (he was getting married) his absence had a big influence on the gameplan. Jean de Villiers who is the man next to F. Steyn, is the new Bok-captain. He was handed the captaincy by Heyneke Meyer and he is the best choice, with Schalk Burger out injured. Depending on how he does, Meyer might stick with him as the captain, even when Burger returns from injury.


Predicted 22:

1. Tendai 'Beast' Mtawarira, 2. Bismarck du Plessis, 3. Jannie du Plessis, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 5. Andries Bekker, 6. Marcell Coetzee, 7. Willem Alberts, 8. Pierre Spies, 9. Ruan Pienaar, 10. Morne Steyn, 11. Bryan Habana, 12. Francois Steyn, 13. Jean de Villiers ©, 14. Francois Hougaard, 15. Patrick Lambie
Reserves: 16. Adriaan Strauss, 17. Patric Cilliers, 18. Juandre Kruger, 19. Keegan Daniel, 20. Jano Vermaak, 21. Juan de Jongh, 22. Zane Kirchner


Schedule:

18th​ August. South Africa - Argentina. Newlands, Cape Town
25th​ August. Argentina - South Africa. Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendonza
8th​ September. Australia - South Africa. Subiaco Oval, Perth
15th​ September. New Zealand - South Africa. Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin
29th​ September. South Africa - Australia. Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
6th​ October. South Africa - New Zealand. Soccer City, Soweto


Predicted finish in 2012: 2nd​

 

[Darwin]

Eze (who I know is the talented writer behind this piece of work), I notice that you have Hougaard on the wing in your predicted 22 (and Pienaar at halfback) - do you think Meyer is likely to go this way? Personally I can see a lot of advantages in this. Hougaard is improving at halfback, but is still much better on the wing in my opinion. His box-kicking and ability to control the game remain weaknesses - if South Africa are going to play a territorial-based game plan I think they would be much better off with Pienaar at 9. I also think Hougaard could be a real weapon on the wing - he is fantastic on the counter-attack (the one South African I really fear on the counter-attack), runs superb lines, and is a great defender (I remember him mowing down Dagg last season on one occasion with ease). If they did start Hougaard on the wing they would also have the option of a 5/2 split on the bench (with an extra front rower or loose-forward) - personally I'm not a big fan of this split, but it seems to be popular with some coaches.

Also, how do you think South Africa will go against Australia and New Zealand without a genuine openside flanker? They were fine against England, but against the likes of McCaw and Pocock could be another story!

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Well, with JP Pietersen out due to injury and Meyer failing to call up another winger (he picked Juan de Jongh as JP's replacement) I feel he will use Hougaard on the wing. The other factor in that decision is that he has 3 scrum-halves in the squad with Hougaard, Pienaar and Jano Vermaak (back-up scrum-half with the Bulls). Habana is a shoe-in for the left wing anyway.

The other winger in the squad is Lwazi Mvovo but I don't see Meyer using him in the starting line-up. He is more likely to come off the bench. Bjorn Basson is not fit due to surgery last month and will be out for a couple of weeks at least. I know Engelbrecht is in the squad who has some experience on the wing but he won't be starting either.

I have to admit, I had to change my predicted line-up due to JP's injury. If that wasn't the case, Pienaar would be on the bench (as a utility back) and Hougaard the starting scrum-half. With Pienaar in the starting line-up, we can always shift Hougaard to the scrum-half position and bring in Mvovo/Engelbrecht off the bench to cover the wing. Pienaar can also shift to full-back when Lambie gets injured (which is pretty much a given lately).

Last and maybe best reason for this line-up is Pienaar showing more patience and shows to handle the pressure better, obviously due to his stint with Ulster.

Regarding the flanker-debate... Coetzee has shown he is a much more complete flanker than the other options we have. Actually we only have 1 other option in Brussow but he is not in the squad. Smith, Burger (injured), Kolisi (not a fetcher), Kankowski, van Niekerk (not selected due to duties abroad) are a lot of loosies that could have been pushed into the starting line-up but they are not available. Vermeulen just recovered from injury which leaves Keegan Daniel. Will Daniel be the fetcher while Coetzee moves to blind-side? Who knows....

 

[SomeOke]

Eze (who I know is the talented writer behind this piece of work), I notice that you have Hougaard on the wing in your predicted 22 (and Pienaar at halfback) - do you think Meyer is likely to go this way? Personally I can see a lot of advantages in this. Hougaard is improving at halfback, but is still much better on the wing in my opinion. His box-kicking and ability to control the game remain weaknesses - if South Africa are going to play a territorial-based game plan I think they would be much better off with Pienaar at 9. I also think Hougaard could be a real weapon on the wing - he is fantastic on the counter-attack (the one South African I really fear on the counter-attack), runs superb lines, and is a great defender (I remember him mowing down Dagg last season on one occasion with ease). If they did start Hougaard on the wing they would also have the option of a 5/2 split on the bench (with an extra front rower or loose-forward) - personally I'm not a big fan of this split, but it seems to be popular with some coaches.

Also, how do you think South Africa will go against Australia and New Zealand without a genuine openside flanker? They were fine against England, but against the likes of McCaw and Pocock could be another story!

I think Eze is being more hopeful when he is predicting Hougard on the wing, it's what most of us would like to see I think, but I think HM will be too stubborn to change it. I could be wrong but I haven't read anything in the SA press that suggest he will do this.

Anyway I don't mean to answer for Eze but for my part I do think we could in theory be fine without an open side, obviously HM feels that fetching is not something that should fall on one player, and we do have people like BdP who does pilfer the odd ball, but in practice it might turn out completely differently. I'm somewhat hesitant to say a fetcher will make all the difference (yet) despite the quarter final which we won't talk about . Purely because I need to see more of the current set-up against our main rivals but I will say this - I'm not convinced that SA not choosing a full time open side is completely by choice, at the moment we just don't have someone of the Pocock/McCaw class available. Brussow didn't have the best season and at times looked like more of a liability than he was worth this season for the Cheetahs and we really have few other options (and I think HB is injured in any case)

 

[SomeOke]

Does anyone know how Francois Louw is faring in England?

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Well, to be honest I don't feel Louw is the answer. We have a lot of young guys coming through in several provinces and Coetzee is just the best option we have at the moment. As mentioned earlier, Kolisi is not really a fetcher, Daniel not Bok material (but who knows... Maybe he'll surprise us all) and Brussow not his 2009 self.

I am not saying I have all the answers. I am not completely aware of all the ins and outs of SA Rugby but I try to follow as much as possible and try to have a (where possible) unbiased look on things. It is still just a one man's opinion but I feel pretty confident Hougaard starts on the wing with JP and Basson out and Aplon not in the squad.

 

[Draggs]

I am skeptical over Hougaard at scrumhalf.
Simply don't see him as a halfback, he lacks the playmaking abilities required in a side that contains Morne Steyn. If you want to play Steyn, then Pienaar or a comparable player must be at inside half.

A back three of Mvovo, Habana, Kirchner [11, 14, 15] has been suggested. I must say it is hardly world-beating. Mvovo is the only dangerous player in attack, and Habana the only who can defend. For having five teams, South Africa really are bare at fullback.

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

That's the reason Morne Steyn worked for the Bulls for years. He had Fourie du Preez in front of him, without a doubt the best scrum-half in the world at that time. Now he has Hougaard who adds little to nothing besides his running.

The back-three you mention is just awful. Kirchner is not Bok material, he has shown that time and time again. Mvovo is only good on attack and Habana just recently re-discovered his form. Hougaard on the wing is a better option since he has a lot of pace and agility to side-step and break the line. When on the wing he has more space to use his tricks.

 

[Draggs]

Please don't think that back three is of my design! No my friend, these are the architects: http://www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/Springboks/New-look-Bok-back-3-looms-20120812
Meyer had better hope we give Reinach more time next season, otherwise it will be the same one-dimensional halfback pairing for a good while. Duvenage isn't bad, makes some mistakes but certainly a more creative player than his South African rivals.

South Africa are trying to be like France with regard to halfbacks. Playmaker at inside half, runner/boot (the latter for SA) at outside half.

I'll take a look at some matches over the past few years shortly and see what I can pick out. I am going to try and catch every WP match and watch old Stormers footage to try and see where their backs are failing.

 

[Nicolaas]

I am skeptical over Hougaard at scrumhalf.
Simply don't see him as a halfback, he lacks the playmaking abilities required in a side that contains Morne Steyn. If you want to play Steyn, then Pienaar or a comparable player must be at inside half.

A back three of Mvovo, Habana, Kirchner [11, 14, 15] has been suggested. I must say it is hardly world-beating. Mvovo is the only dangerous player in attack, and Habana the only who can defend. For having five teams, South Africa really are bare at fullback.

I beg to differ. Mvovo is not bad on defense and Habana showed signs of his former self this year in the super 15 and keeps improving. It's just Zane that should not be there.

 

[Icemn]

9. Pienaar
10. lambie
11. aplon/banana/hougaard/Mvovo
12. fran steyn
13. JP
14. hougaard/aplon
15.Taute

game on!!!

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

9. Pienaar
10. lambie
11. aplon/banana/hougaard/Mvovo
12. fran steyn
13. JP
14. hougaard/aplon
15.Taute

game on!!!

I'd love to see some of those suggestions. I think JP Pietersen has looked at his most dangerous on the wing so for my money I'd go for 9Pienaar, 10Lambie, 11 Hougaard, 12F Steyn, 13 JdV (for now seeing as he has been named captain till the end of year and some decisions you have to stand by), 14 JP Petersen (Aplon with Petersen inured), 15 Taute (I wonder how seriously Meyer would have considered him if he wasn't injured) or Ludik ATM with Taute injured.

The funny thing is that in both thse line-ups the majority have had time with the Boks and could be considered experienced- I'd count Pienaar, JP and F Steyn (also JdV if you count him) as experienced campaigners and in Aplon, Hougaard and Lambie we have guys that have had some chances and have IMO proven themselves and the impact they can make (though I'd only consider Aplon for the 14 jersey and not as a FB in test rugby.

 

[Draggs]

I beg to differ. Mvovo is not bad on defense and Habana showed signs of his former self this year in the super 15 and keeps improving. It's just Zane that should not be there.

Mvovo's defence has improved, but I still worry about it on an international stage. Habana has been decent in an inactive Stormers backline.

I hope we see Ludik and others during the November internationals, perhaps Meyer might experiment a bit more then.

Stormer, that backline would be lethal if it clicks.

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

These matches are there to be won, November is the time to experiment. I really hope we see Robert Ebersohn, Vermeulen, Ludik, Taute, Goosen and maybe some youngsters like PSdT, Jordaan, Kitshoff... By the time we travel to Europe we will have Basson back as well and maybe Aplon (who knows...)

 

[TRF_heineken]

Good news from the Bok-camp:

All the players arrived at the camp and all of them are training. Ruan Pienaar was the only one who wasn't with the team last week as he had contractual obligations with Ulster and had to be in Ireland last week.

On the injury front Eben Etzebeth, Chilliboy Ralepelle and Jacques Potgieter had their first training session yesterday, and according to the team Doc all will be up for selection come Wednesday.

The only player to not train was Keegan Daniel as he was bitten by a spider over the weekend and due to the antibiotics, he had to miss out on training yesterday, and also today, but he will be also available for selection.

 

[tyronzn]

Out of curiosity,what is the general consensus from Non springbok supporters view on the team selections?Alot of Springbok supporters tend to disagree with the Heyneke Meyer's selection criteria and myself included.If you any of you were coach who would be your starting 15 from what you have seen in the rugby championship and Super Rugby this season?I'd be curious to see your opinions.