I've kind of thrown form out the window because there's no one in horrendous form if we're being honest and JJ for me is a flat out better player than Davies (Ringrose too).
If you look at the last four years and the competition between Ireland, England and Wales and the records v NZ it's pretty clear that Wales have too much involvement in this tour;
6n
Ireland: 1st, 1st, 3rd, 2nd
England: 2nd, 2nd, GS, 1st
Wales: 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 5th
vs NZ
Ireland: 1-0-2, agg 71-74 (NZ win by 1.5 on average)
England: 0-0-5, agg 98-138 (NZ win by 8 on average)
Wales: 0-0-4, 65-128 (NZ win by 15.75 on average)
There's a clear third place here that is having as much influence on tour as 1st and 2nd, why continue with tried, tested and failed systems and personnel when you don't have too?